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Value Finder

DFS Value Finder: Week 14

by Kyle Dvorchak
Updated On: December 13, 2020, 11:18 am ET

This is a simple, straightforward piece. At the end of the week, I’m taking our weekly composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing at FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo.


Patrick Mahomes vs. Dolphins -- QB1 (FanDuel, QB3, $8,900)


Mahomes is scoring the second-most FanDuel points among quarterbacks this year and the only player ahead of him, Kyler Murray, has a team total of 23.25 points. Mahomes and the Chiefs have team total of 29 points. Murray is still dealing with a shoulder injury that has seemingly limited him in recent weeks. That likely leaves Mahomes as the top-scoring passer on the main slate once again. Fading Mahomes and his ten games with multiple passing touchdowns on any slate is dangerous. Doing so when he's cheaper than two other passers is madness.


Aaron Rodgers vs. Lions -- QB2 (DraftKings, QB4, $7,500)


Rodgers is the only expensive passer with a fighting chance to out-score Mahomes and he clocks in as a better value on DraftKings per our Expert Rankings. He is the only passer with more than six games of at least three passing touchdowns. He has nine such games. Rodgers also leads the league in games with four or more scores, of which he has five. Vegas projects the Packers to lead all teams in scoring this week and that falls in line with Rodgers’ gaudy touchdown numbers this year.


Taysom Hill vs. Eagles -- QB9 (Yahoo, QB11, $30)


Since taking over for Drew Brees three weeks ago, Hill is the QB10 by Yahoo scoring. This includes him playing against one opponent who could not find a quarterback in time for their matchup with the Saints, nixing any back-and-forth scoring potential in that game. Hill’s fantasy production has come through his dominance as a runner. He is averaging 11.3 carries for 58.7 yards and 1.3 scores across his three starts. All three marks lead are first among quarterbacks on a per-game basis.


Austin Ekeler vs. Falcons -- RB6 (FanDuel, RB9, $7,500)


In a worst-case scenario series of events for Ekeler last week, his team lost by 45 points and did not score. He still managed 17 opportunities (carries plus targets). Things will be better for him this week as the Chargers host the Falcons. In a tradition as old as football itself, the Falcons are allowing an above-average amount of receptions to running backs despite routinely being on the losing end of games. In four healthy games with Justin Herbert under center, Ekeler is averaging 7.5 targets per game. As a slight underdog to Atlanta, he should push for double-digit targets once again.


Myles Gaskin DeAndre Washington vs. Chiefs -- (DraftKings, $4,000)


With Matt Breida, Gaskin, and Salvon Ahmed out, Washington is expected to start for Miami at running back. The Dolphins were more than content with giving Gaskin the bulk of the work last week while keeping Patrick Laird on the sidelines for all but passing downs. If they choose that same approach this week, it will be Washington controlling 15 or more touches at the minimum price on DraftKings.


Jonathan Taylor vs. Raiders -- RB10 (Yahoo, RB11, $26)


After a brief stint on the reserve/COVID-19 list, Taylor affirmed his status as the primary runner for the Colts last week. He has earned 62.5 percent of the running back carries in his past two games and has seven targets to go along with his impressive rushing share numbers. Taylor and the Colts have a sneaky team total of 27 points this week and are favored by three versus the Raiders. Everything is setting up for the Taylor breakout week we have all been waiting for.


Allen Robinson vs. Texans -- WR6 (FanDuel, WR15, $7,000)


Whenever Mitchell Trubisky is under center, Robinson is one of the most-targeted receivers in the league. Trubisky has five starts this year. In those games, Robinson has posted ten targets per game on a 26 percent target share. He also has a 29 percent share of the Bears’ air yards with Trubisky as the starter. The value of his role will get amplified versus a soft Houston secondary this week.


Corey Davis vs. Jaguars -- WR21 (DraftKings, WR22, $5,700)


As much as it may hurt the A.J. Brown fans to see, Davis has pushed him for the No. 1 receiver role when the two have taken the field together. That has occurred in eight games this year. In those contests, Brown has a 24 percent target share and a 38 percent air yards share. Those marks are one and six percent higher than Brown. Against a Jaguars Defense that is allowing more yards per attempt than any other unit in the league, Davis projects as a solid value once again.


Keenan Allen vs. Falcons -- WR4 (Yahoo, WR5, $30)


Allen is only ranked one place ahead of his cost on Yahoo but he’s also tied with three other receivers at $30. He has a solid argument to be the No. 3 priced receiver on this slate. Removing the one game he left in the first quarter due to back spasms, Allen has been otherworldly with Herbert as his quarterback. He’s averaging an 8.4-86-.6 stat line in those games while seeing 12.3 targets weekly. That level of volume can only be found with Davante Adams, who is $9 more on Yahoo this week.


Hunter Henry vs. Falcons -- TE5 (FanDuel, T8, $5,600)


Henry is currently fifth among tight ends with 77 targets through 13 weeks of football. He is the No. 1 tight end for the best rookie passer in the league and his game has a 49.5 total. Henry is the ideal secondary piece of a Herbert plus Allen stack.


Dallas Goedert vs. Falcons -- TE8 (DraftKings, TE10, $4,000)


Goedert is simply one of the rare tight ends who operates as his team’s No. 1 receiver. Unlike the few other tight ends who can make this claim, he isn’t priced like any team’s primary pass-catcher. Dating back to Week 10, Goedert has earned a 21 percent target share and a 23 percent air yards share. Both stats pace all Eagles receiving options.


Logan Thomas vs. 49ers -- TE13 (Yahoo, TE18, $12)


Thomas could post 200 yards with two scores and Yahoo would still have him priced as the TE11. He is currently the No. 8 tight end on the year in Yahoo’s scoring and his quarterback play only recently improved by going from Kyle Allen or Dwayne Haskins to Alex Smith. As slight underdogs to the 49ers this week, Smith could push for 40 pass attempts once again. Expect five or more catches as a floor for Thomas

Kyle Dvorchak

Kyle Dvorchak is a writer for Rotoworld and half of the other sites on the internet. He loves most Big 12 quarterbacks, misses the XFL and can be found on @kyletweetshere.