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Weekly Picks

ATS Bowl Picks Dec. 29

by Thor Nystrom

 

Rotoworld has a college football podcast dedicated to betting against the spread. Every week, my co-host Mark Lindquist and I pick our five favorite sides of the week. Subscribe on iTunes here! Write us a review and we'll shout you out on the next episode.

 

*All stats below refer to S&P+ (an advanced stats computer model created by SB Nation’s Bill Connelly) unless otherwise noted. “ATL” refers to my system, which generates adjusted game spreads independent of injuries and situational spots (those factors must be accounted for in your individual handicap). I use ATL to give me a ballpark idea of what a fair spread would be independent of public perception.

 

 

December 29

College Football Playoff semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

4 p.m. ET on ESPN
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Clemson (No. 2 S&P+) -12.5 vs. Notre Dame (No. 6 S&P+)
Total: 56
ATL: Clemson -12.5

At a glance

Clemson (13-0 vs. No. 76 SOS) - S&P+ off (7, 8/27), def (1, 1/6), ST (99)
vs.
Notre Dame (12-0 vs. No. 61 SOS) - S&P+ off (26, 74/21), def (4, 18/8), ST (62)

Oddmaker's intel

Kevin Bradley, Bovada.lv Sportsbook manager: “While there are around 19% less wagers coming in on this game compared to the other semifinal, it is the biggest decision for the book so far this bowl season. 60% of all wagers are on the Irish +12.5 and 71% of all wagers on them are moneyline bets at +335. We are going to go into this one needing Clemson big, and as it stands now we are okay with that.”


Tony Pauline’s top NFL prospects

Clemson EDGE Clelin Ferrell (Round 1 grade): “Tremendous defensive prospect who can rush the passer out of a three point stance or standing over tackles. Athletic, disrupts the action behind the line of scrimmage and also effective making plays in space.”

Notre Dame DT Jerry Tillery (Round 2 grade): “Explosive defensive lineman in the midst of a great campaign. Large, athletic, disruptive and has a good degree of scheme versatility. Could end up in round one.”

The ‘cap

The most difficult aspect of this handicap is that we haven’t seen either team play many quarters against quality opponents. Both schedules rank outside the top-60 S&P+. Clemson played zero teams in the top-10, one in the top-20 (Texas A&M), and three others in the top-50 (Syracuse, NC State and South Carolina). Notre Dame played one in the top-five (Michigan), but only three others in the top-50 (Stanford, Syracuse and USC).

The lack of quality of opponents introduces unknown variables into this handicap. So do the new quarterbacks. Notre Dame QB Ian Book did not start a game against a top-25 S&P+ team (Brandon Wimbush was the quarterback against Michigan). Neither did Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence (Kelly Bryant was the quarterback against Texas A&M).

Interestingly, Clemson’s yards per play average has actually dropped a bit from Bryant to Lawrence (7.49 to 7.34) while Notre Dame’s has risen about a yard between Wimbush’s starts and Book’s (5.53 to 6.52).

Book enters this game shouldering an enormous amount of pressure because of the matchup itself. Clemson has one of the best defensive lines we’ve seen in the past decade of college football (the vaunted quintet of DEs Clelin Ferrell and Austin Bryant and DTs Dexter Lawrence and Christian Wilkins is also backed-up by more phenom recruits). Clemson is next-level dominant against the run, No. 1 in S&P+ by margin and leading the nation with a mere 2.4 ypa allowed. Clemson may have to make due without Lawrence on Saturday, however.

 

At the time of this writing, Lawrence was awaiting the results of his B sample after he flunked a drug test earlier this month. Results from that B sample are expected to be made public at some point on Thursday. Lawrence said he didn’t know how the banned muscle growth substance ostarine appeared in the failed drug test.

Lawrence was one of three Clemson players to test positive for ostarine. The two others are little-used backups. If the B sample comes back positive for any of the three, they would be suspended for this game (and probably the title game, too, if Clemson beats Notre Dame). If Lawrence is out, senior DT Albert Huggins will take his place in the lineup. Huggins is a rotational player who averaged around 20 snaps per game this season. Clemson would likely use a smaller defensive line rotation if that’s the case. Lawrence's absence would hurt -- he's a legit first-round NFL Draft prospect -- but defensive line is the one area that Clemson could probably afford to lose a star without dropping off significantly.

Notre Dame’s rushing offense ranks only No. 74 in S&P+, but it’s important to note that it’s improved over the last two-thirds of the season after RB Dexter Williams returned from a four-game suspension. Williams averaged 117.6 yards per game on 6.6 ypc with 12 touchdowns over the final eight games. To be fair: Williams didn’t play against Michigan, and Notre Dame didn’t face many other upper-tier defenses.

The best thing the Irish’s rushing attack has going for it is breaking off the occasional explosive Williams run. Clemson is No. 1 against rushing explosion. The Tigers’s rush defense is also No. 1 in rushing opportunity rate and No. 3 in stuff rate. In those two categories offensively, Notre Dame ranks No. 116 and 118. Make no mistake: Clemson is going to absolutely dominate the line of scrimmage defensively. Notre Dame isn’t going to get much of anything going on the ground, Lawrence or no Lawrence.

The Irish’s offensive line, which lost a pair of top-nine picks in the last NFL Draft, also lost stud left guard Alex Bars to a season-ending injury in September. The offensive line’s inconsistency hasn’t yet come back to bite Notre Dame. But if Notre Dame loses this game by two touchdowns or more, offensive line play will likely be the primary culprit. The Irish often keep a tight end in-line to help that crew, and you can bet they’ll be doing that more often than not against the Tigers.

That enormous matchup disadvantage brings us back to Book. Because Notre Dame is going to have little success running the ball, Book is going to have to throw his team to a win. Book is a better quarterback than Wimbush, clearly. But he’s also a better fit for this offense in conjunction with the down offensive line, because Book has four skills that quarterbacks playing behind mediocre lines need to have: He stays composed, he excels at evading pressure, he keeps his eyes downfield while scrambling, and he’s accurate on the move.

Book is also a nice compliment for Notre Dame’s receiving corps. HC Brian Kelly has collected a bunch of lanky athletes — WRs Miles Boykin (6'4) and Chase Claypool (6’4) and TE Alizé Mack (6’5) — for Book to work with. When Book doesn’t have a clean pocket, he’s scrambling around waiting for one of those elevated gold helmets to steer itself into a sliver of space.

Because his three primary receivers all have big catch radiuses, Book can do his version of what Johnny Manziel used to do with Mike Evans, running around until firing it into a large window when it opens. Boykin and Claypool aren’t nearly the athletes that Evans was — they aren’t the route runners he was either — but each has strong hands, and each excels in contested situations. That’s key, because Clemson’s secondary isn’t going to provide much space to work with.

Notre Dame isn’t very explosive in the passing game, but they’re top-20 in both efficiency and completion rate. And while the offensive line’s inconsistency can be clearly seen in the advanced rushing stats, Notre Dame’s sack rate stats (No. 33) are perfectly acceptable. Book’s mobility certainly has helped in that regard, just as his accuracy has elevated the efficiency of the offense in general.

Clemson’s pass defense (No. 6) is more forgiving than its run defense, but not by much. Clemson (No. 6 sack rate) is going to consistently pressure Book. The Tigers rank No. 7 and 12 against completion rate and passing efficiency, the two areas where Notre Dame’s offensive bread is buttered. The Irish don’t have much recourse but to choose this specific poison when deciding how to attack Clemson. To skew run-heavy would be accepting the loss in advance.

Notre Dame needs a Doug Flutie performance out of the diminutive Book, and it needs it receivers to convert every catchable ball they see. If Notre Dame is unable to find success through the air, the chains will stop moving, and this is when Clemson begins the process of shutting off the oxygen in the room.

Clemson has the best defense in college football. But lets not discount Notre Dame’s (No. 4), which gives up only 17.2 points per game. The Irish also have NFL players littered all over the unit, led on each level by DT  Jerry Tillery, ILB Te'Von Coney and CB Julian Love. Converted safety OLB Drue Tranquill and Navy transfer S Alohi Gillman add range and reliability.

Notre Dame is very good at taking away explosive plays (top-10 against both the run and pass, and top-5 overall). They struggle a bit more — and this is going to become our theme — at controlling the line of scrimmage. The Irish rank No. 58 in both run stuff rate and sack rate. The pass defense (No. 8) and run defense (No. 18) remain strong overall, however, because they aren’t going to allow you to score six points in 30 seconds. That’s more or less off the table.

It’s the kind of defense that grows on you. When I’ve watched it this season, I’ve consistently seen teams be able to have small amounts of success against Notre Dame, success on the micro level. But while Notre Dame will allow you to move the ball a bit, they are extremely, extremely hard to score on (beyond even the no-explosive plays thing).

The Irish rank No. 4 in points allowed per scoring opportunity. Per NBC Sports Notre Dame beat writer Douglas Farmer Farmer, only three opposing offenses — Vanderbilt, Stanford and Northwestern — scored two offensive touchdowns against Notre Dame in non-garbage time this season.

Clemson has beaten every opponent it has played when QB Trevor Lawrence started and finished by 20 points or more. The stats are beautiful. But I’m here to tell you that they’re a bit deceiving.Clemson only played one S&P+ top-40 defense when Lawrence started and finished a game. That was Boston College (No. 28), and the Eagles were the only team to hold the Lawrence-led offense under 30 points (Clemson got 20, if we want to be specific; the other seven came on a return TD).

So again: Your handicap is going to require you to make situation assumptions. Because we haven’t seen Lawrence against a Notre Dame-caliber defense, and we haven’t seen Book against a Clemson-caliber defense. Frankly, neither have seen anything close.

But we do know that Lawrence is going to get more help than Book from his running game. RB Travis Etienne (1,464 yards and 21 touchdowns) is one of the nation’s premier backs, and there are three backs behind him who all have at least one 60-yard rush this season. Notre Dame is going to do its part to cut down on the home runs, but Clemson is almost assuredly going to nick the Irish up with singles and doubles. Clemson’s offensive stuff rate of No. 10 tells you that the offensive line gets a push that the running backs take advantage of. That’s one area where Clemson’s offense will excel.

As for Lawrence, he’s been a downgrade on Bryant as a runner (obviously) and an upgrade on Bryant as a passer (obviously). Lawrence has taken far few sacks per attempt than Bryant did, though his ypa is only slightly higher (7.7 to 7.5). Clemson’s passing offense isn’t nearly as explosive (No. 53) as we remember from the Deshaun Watson days. But it’s very efficient and Lawrence doesn’t take stupid sacks.

Clemson is going to get its offense from intermediate throws and consistent non-explosive running gains. We know this. Notre Dame, meanwhile, needs to cross its fingers on Book and his tall-tree receivers. Advantage: Clemson.

Notre Dame has the special teams edge, while Clemson has the experience and coaching edges. Notre Dame HC Brian Kelly is just 3-7 ATS in bowl games, while HC Dabo Swinney is now a playoff regular (and a postseason monster in general Clemson is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 bowl games). Kelly has been a double-digit underdog four times at Notre Dame, going 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS.

I want the points, because it’s difficult for me to trust Clemson to score enough to make me comfortable laying nearly two TD against a quality opponent. But the bet I like more is on the under. Diving deep into the advanced metrics really makes you appreciate the task ahead for each of these offenses. Each has a very small list of things they might be able to rely on for consistent sources of yardage, and each quarterback is in for the test of his young life.

The pick: Notre Dame +12.5, Under 56

 

College Football Playoff semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl

8 p.m. ET on ESPN
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Alabama (No. 1 S&P+) -14 vs. Oklahoma (No. 4 S&P+)
Total: 77
ATL: Alabama -9.5

 

At a glance

Alabama (13-0 vs. No. 17 SOS) - S&P+ off (2, 5/1), def (8, 4/7), ST (93)
vs.
Oklahoma (12-1 vs. No. 68 SOS) - S&P+ off (1, 1/2), def (89, 53/91), ST (32)

Oddmaker's intel

Kevin Bradley, Bovada.lv Sportsbook manager: “This is a very closely bet game on the spread, with 55% on Oklahoma and 45% on Alabama. We are however looking at some big exposure on the moneyline as more than 60% of the wagers are on Oklahoma +410. This is the first time I can recall a game moving on the moneyline (Moved from +430 to +410) without the spread moving at all (opened and still is at 14). There is a little bit of concern about the two-underdog parlay in the semifinal as not only would we probably be down on the bowl season overall at that point, we are also looking at a significant loser from a futures perspective.”

Tony Pauline’s top NFL prospects

Alabama DT Quinnen Williams (Round 1): “Improving almost weekly, Williams has watched his draft stock fire North faster than any prospect in the nation and is poised to be the first pick of the draft. He’s a great athlete developing into a complete three down lineman."

Oklahoma OL Bobby Evans (Round 2-3 grade): “Well liked in the scouting community, Evans is a massive college right tackle many project to guard. He’s a powerful, wide-bodied blocker who moves very well on his feet.”

The ‘cap

The same caveat must be made before we get into any Alabama handicap: To bet the Tide, you must pay a tax. Not a mythical tax. A real one based on objective numbers. Here, we aren’t getting the same amount of line value on the ‘dog as we did in the SEC title game with Georgia (an easy Bulldogs cover), but I’m still showing a solid 4.5 points of line value on Oklahoma.

Doesn’t mean you have to take it, doesn’t mean that Alabama won’t blow out Oklahoma… but it does mean that you’re paying a stiff price for the right to get behind the Crimson Tide. Whatever side you eventually choose, you can cherry-pick trends that will support your decision. This game has some really compelling ones.

On the Oklahoma side, underdogs of 14 or more points in bowls over the last five seasons have won four of the 12 games outright. And for whatever it’s worth, S&P+ gives the Sooners a 27% chance of pulling off the upset. On the Alabama side, a more straightforward historical trend: Over the past decade, the Big 12 is 29-45 ATS in bowl games, while the SEC is 58-43-2. The SEC has also been dominant against the Big 12 in bowl games in recent years. This game pits the worst Power 5 bowl conference against the best (though last year’s Oklahoma-Georgia semifinal should prolly disavow you of the inclination to blindly follow that trend).

This game is being billed as a heavyweight fight between two offensive powerhouses led by Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray and Heisman Trophy runner-up Tua Tagovailoa. And it is that. But don’t get too wrapped up in that while breaking down the game. The offenses are what they are. Oklahoma’s is the best in the nation, and Alabama’s isn’t far behind at No. 2. That’s the easy part of the handicap.

To beat Alabama, you must play lights-out on offense, you must cut down on the explosive plays the Tide’s offense generates, and you must pick up hidden points in the special teams game. That’s the plan. Is Oklahoma capable of executing it?

The Sooners finished 5-7-1 ATS this season because the No. 89 S&P+ defense consistently let lesser opponents hang around in games they had no business being in (the 15-point win against KU being a prime example). Oklahoma’s lone loss, the 48-45 October setback against Texas, cost DC Mike Stoops his job. The Sooners’ defense still hasn’t made a turn for the better without him. Since the beginning of November, it has allowed 43.2 ppg (the Kansas game is one-fifth of that sample size).

Oklahoma is actually slightly above average nationally in run defense (No. 53). The secondary, on the other hand, has been dreadful. The Sooners rank No. 91 in pass defense and are particularly awful at preventing efficiency (No. 126) and completions (No. 106). But one kinda-sort-of promising datapoint is that the thing that Oklahoma’s pass defense is best at is limiting explosive passes (relatively speaking; Oklahoma ranks No. 65 in that metric).

I will absolutely not vouch for Oklahoma’s defense. But I’ll say this: While they are terrible at defending efficiency (against the run and pass both), they’re passable in preventing big plays (again, relatively speaking, but OU ranks Nos. 49 and 56 in S&P+’s two major defensive explosion categories). This is a crew plenty familiar with pass-heavy attacks as well after playing conference foes Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and West Virginia in the Big 12 slate. Oklahoma has seen more offenses that play like Oklahoma’s than vice-versa. And familiarity is worth something, as we talk about more frequently when handicapping rematches against triple-option teams.

Alabama’s passing offense is the nation’s best. It’s in this facet of the game, and in this facet of the game only, that the game could go awry for Oklahoma backers. There’s no question that Bama is going to shred OU’s secondary (assuming that Tua Tagovailoa is recovered from the high-ankle sprain he suffered against Georgia, which is the expectation). The question is to what degree the Sooners can mitigate damage.

Oklahoma will likely prioritize defending the deep sector of the field. Limiting Alabama’s freebies is a great idea, but it would also exacerbate the biggest mismatch in this area of the game,  Alabama's No. 2-ranked pass efficiency offense against Oklahoma’s aforementioned 126th-ranked pass efficiency defense.

Assuming Tua is healthy and dealing, Alabama is going to methodically shred the Sooners through the air (though, again, Oklahoma might have a tick more success in limiting home runs than some assume). If I’m Alabama, I want to throw as much as possible, and I want to go after Oklahoma’s biggest weakness by hitting my athletes on the move in high-percentage scenarios in the intermediate sector of the field, crossing routes, drags, slants, and things of that nature.

If that’s successful — and it’s essentially guaranteed to be — Oklahoma is going to have to modify its plans to either speed up Tua’s clock (blitz) or flood the intermediate sector with more bodies. It’s at that time that you start to bake in your downfield shots to Jerry Jeudy and your exotic wide receiver screens to the burner Jaylen Waddle. Intersperse all that with dashes of fully-rested RBs Damien Harris, Najee Harris and Josh Jacobs (particularly, in Jacobs’ case, in the screen game), and you’ve got yourself a delicious offensive bonanza cake.

It’s easy to picture how Alabama’s offense will look against Oklahoma’s defense. The more interesting thought experiment occurs when you flip the field. The treat here is that Alabama will be facing a superior offense for the first time all season. This is something that occurred more frequently in recent seasons. Last year’s title team, for instance, ranked No. 23 S&P+ offensively. But that team had the best defense in the nation by both conventional and advanced metrics, while this year’s Alabama defense is really good but not elite (No. 8).

This Alabama team is something new, a different team, yes, of course, but more to the point a different team with a completely different general strategy. And yes, when we talk about those changes, we fire up the superlatives and evoke fear for any team in the Tide’s path. But while this Tide team is more likely to blow you out, its increased reliance on offense, the quiet regression of its defense, and the season-long special teams clown show have, by extension, made Alabama a higher-variance team.

Alabama gleefully ran up the score on long-time SEC rivals by introducing them to an offensive powerhouse the likes of which the conference had never seen. That style of play is old hat to Oklahoma. Against teams like LSU, Mississippi State and Auburn, we knew Alabama had almost no chance to get upset because the opponent wasn’t going to be able to reach the 30-point marker due to a lack of offensive ammunition.

Not the case with Oklahoma. Alabama may well score 60 points in this game. But they will have no choice but to keep scoring because the Sooners light up everyone. Toss out the Army game (in which Oklahoma finished with a strong 8.8 ypp but almost got upset because Army drained the clock and only allowed the Sooners to have eight offensive possessions total), and Oklahoma’s low point total all season was 37, against Iowa State. The best defense Oklahoma faced all year was TCU’s (No. 23), and the Sooners hung 52 on them with a 98% offensive percentile performance.

Alabama’s No. 8 defense provides a bigger test. The Crimson Tide have a tough task here, because Oklahoma is impossible to defend. The Sooners rank No. 1 in both of S&P+’s major efficiency rankings, and they also rank No. 1 in both of S&P+’s major explosion rankings. They also rank No. 1 in points per scoring opportunity, overall rushing offense, rushing efficiency, and passing efficiency (the passing offense is No. 2, behind only Bama).

The health of OU WR Marquis Brown, who suffered a foot or ankle injury against Texas, is something to monitor. The Sooners system isn’t predicated on leveraging one facet of the game or one individual player’s skills — that’s the beauty of it — but losing their most dynamic athlete in a game they must score a minimum 40 points to win would be rough. If Brown is out or limited, CeeDee Lamb is going to step into the featured role. He’s well equipped for that. The issue is more about replacing Brown’s athleticism with a green backup.

Brown’s absence would sting, but it won’t decimate Oklahoma. It’s impossible to stop the Sooners because if you take one thing away, they’ll kill you somewhere else. How long are you going to prevent from scoring an offense that’s No. 1 in the nation in 20+ yard plays but also easily No. 1 in explosion and elite-elite in both rushing and passing, with an upper-tier offensive line and a quarterback in Kyler Murray who is so athletically gifted as a runner and thrower that he’s already a multi-millionaire after going in the top-10 of the last baseball draft? There has been buzz that Murray would draw Round 1 consideration in the NFL Draft if he declares.

Outscoring Oklahoma is possible. Stopping them from scoring is literally impossible. They’re too talented, and HC Lincoln Riley is too next-level schematically. Check out film of any Oklahoma game the past two years. Nobody is better than Riley at consistently fooling defenders. The scheme itself plays down the opposing defense — indecision kills athleticism as much as a sprained ankle — and Oklahoma’s offensive stars take it from there.

Alabama’s defense ranks No. 4 against the run and No. 7 against the pass. The Tide are extremely good at defending efficiency (No. 3 in both of S&P+’s major defensive efficiency metrics). That defense proved devastating against talented-but-limited SEC offenses that could easily be made to play left-handed (Mississippi State, LSU, etc).

You can’t make Oklahoma play left-handed because every hand they have offensively is dominant, like a Hindu god. The bigger issue is that Alabama gives up way too many explosive plays. The Tide rank Nos. 45 and 69 in S&P+’s two major defensive explosion metrics. If Alabama cannot taper down Oklahoma’s home runs, they’re going to find themselves in a coin-flip shootout, like Georgia did last year.

Oklahoma’s biggest edge heading in comes on special teams. Alabama ranks No. 93 in special teams despite the fact that it has the best kick return unit in college football. How is that possible? The kicking and punting games are both shockingly abysmal -- field goals and punts are an adventure. Meanwhile, Oklahoma ranks No. 32 on special teams.

To return to our original handicapping mission statement: “To beat Alabama, you must play lights-out on offense, cut down on the explosive plays the Tide’s offense generates, and pick up hidden points in the special teams game.” Oklahoma is going to play lights-out on offense, and the Sooners will also probably pick up a few hidden points on special teams, whether overtly through an Alabama missed field goal (or two) or covertly through hidden yardage gained with field position advantages.

Oklahoma likely will be able to take some explosion away from Alabama’s offense, but they’re going to be powerless in keeping Alabama off schedule. As long as the Tide don’t make unforced offensive errors, they should generally be able to march up and down the field. Oklahoma’s goal won't be stop Alabama, but to force them to run more plays in the hopes that an unforced error or two will crop up through sheer volume. (And just so we're clear: If Jalen Hurts is prominently involved in this game -- if Tua's injury is more severe than he's letting on, or if it gets re-aggravated and forced him out -- I would bet my parent's mortage on Oklahoma +14).

Two touchdowns is an absurd price to lay against a team as good as Oklahoma, a team with a transcendent, weakness-free offense and a big special teams edge. We’re going to get points galore, and that’ll lead to a high-variance game. For Alabama backers to feel at all comfortable with their -14 tickets, the Tide are going to have to be leading by 28 in the fourth quarter with the ball -- Oklahoma is a scary backdoor cover threat if Alabama's lead isn't more than 21.

That scenario is possible, absolutely. This is an Alabama team that won every regular season game by at least 22 points (before requiring a rally to beat Georgia in the SEC title), after all. But as Georgia themselves found out last year in the playoff, Oklahoma lights up defenses of all quality levels.

Georgia’s 2017 defense was clearly better than Alabama’s 2018 defense, and that Georgia team was unable to hold Oklahoma under 40 points in regulation (UGA defenders spoke of Oklahoma's offense with wonder after the game). That leaves Alabama’s margin for error in covering this number pretty small, even if you project a huge amount of offensive success (and I do).

One last thing out the door, with regards to the total. It's crazy, up near 80, but absolutely justified for reasons we’ve already brushed on. Alabama has gone over in eight of 13 games this season, while Oklahoma has gone over in 11 of 13. A 41-38 final gets us there, as does 52-28. The Sooners beat the Tide 45-31 (76) in the 2014 Sugar Bowl, and both offenses have been turbo-charged since then.

The pick: Oklahoma +14, Over 77

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Noon ET, ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, Georgia)
Michigan (No. 5 S&P+) -6.5 vs. Florida (No. 14 S&P+)
Total: 51
ATL: NA (Gary/Bush/Higdon)

 

At a glance

Michigan (10-2 vs. No. 28 SOS) - S&P+ off (24, 33/10), def (5, 10/20), ST (40)
vs.
Florida (9-3 vs. No. 22 SOS) - S&P+ off (27, 32/30), def (26, 47/28), ST (9)

Oddmaker's intel

Kevin Bradley, Bovada.lv Sportsbook manager: “This is the only Bowl game so far where we have seen movement on both sides of the spread. Florida opened as a 7-point favorite but early betting moved them to 7.5. Then we started to see the Michigan money come in and within 48 hours moved the line back to 7 and now to 6.5 where it currently stands. We took a very aggressive stance with the line for this game and because of this we are in a good situation, no big winners but no big losers.”

Tony Pauline’s top NFL prospects

Michigan DL Rashan Gary (Round 1 grade): “Tremendous prospect with size, athleticism and growth potential.  Struggled with a shoulder injury this season but at the top of his game an impact defensive prospect.

Florida EDGE Jachai Polite (Round 1 grade): “Game impacting pass rusher that’s impossible to stop. Fast off the edge, plays with great balance and alters the momentum of games with his impact. Expected to enter the draft.”

Sitting: Michigan DE Rashan Gary, Michigan LB Devin Bush, Michigan RB Karan Higdon

The ‘cap

This will be the third time we’ve seen this game since 2015 (Michigan won the Citrus Bowl that year by 16, and also last year’s regular season opener 41-7). The Wolverines opened offshore as six-point favorites. The market quickly steamed the number to the key number of seven before pushing it over the threshold to -7.5. It stayed there until two more prominent Michigan stars joined Rashan Gary on the sit list, causing the line to drop a point. We'll get to all that in a second.

For Jim Harbaugh to improve to 3-0 against the Gators as Michigan’s head coach, he’s going to have to beat a very different Florida team than he’s seen in recent years. Gators HC Dan Mullen wasn’t around for Florida’s two recent meltdowns against Michigan (the Wolverines outscored the Gators 44-0 in after halftime of those two games). Last time Mullen saw the Wolverines, he was whipping them 52-14 as Mississippi State’s head coach in the 2011 Gator Bowl.

Mullen, a disciple of Urban Meyer, is probably snickering at this whole “Michigan has Florida’s number” talking point. No. Michigan (and several other programs) had Jim McElwain’s number. (Interestingly, McElwain has since moved into Harbaugh’s backyard after taking the Central Michigan HC job).

Harbaugh’s Wolverines have thus far proven unable to win big games. Michigan hasn’t won a New Year's Day Six bowl game (or beaten Ohio State) under Harbaugh, who enters 1-2 SU and ATS in bowl games at Michigan. The most recent bowl loss came against South Carolina in last year’s Outback Bowl, an interesting datapoint in lieu of this matchup. Michigan comes in off the embarrassing 62-39 loss to the Buckeyes in the regular season finale. To be fair, that was the only time Michigan allowed more than 21 points all season.

And if we’re going to nitpick performances, we should talk about Florida being thoroughly non-competitive in all three of its losses, to Kentucky (S&P+ No. 40), Georgia (3) and Missouri (16). In all nine wins, the Gators posted postgame win expectancies of 80%-plus each time. That includes win over Mississippi State (12), LSU (15) and South Carolina (33). When Florida is playing well, they’re extremely difficult to beat. When they’re not, a good team can hammer them.

The Gators’ offense isn’t explosive (it ranks in the 80s of each of S&P+’s explosion metrics). But the offense is top-15 efficient and well-balanced, with strong offensive line play. Florida doesn't get stuffed on running plays, and it rarely allows sacks (particularly on passing downs, where Florida ranks No 1). For an efficient unit with a good offensive line, you won’t be surprised to learn that Florida is also very good on third downs. Situational football is just kind of what this team does. Florida will also enjoy a solid special teams edge.

Mullen saw how his old friend Urban went about slicing and dicing Don Brown’s defense and he probably picked up a few notes. Ohio State racked up 567 yards of offense, 396 of them by air as Dwayne Haskins carved Michigan up by hitting athletes on crossing routes and letting them run. UF QB Feleipe Franks (2,284 yards, 23/6 TD/INT rate) has a bazooka for an arm, but accuracy has always been an issue.

Because of that, Franks is not going to be able to exploit Michigan in exactly the same way that Haskins did. But fact of the matter is, Michigan really struggles at preventing explosive passing plays (No. 69), so Florida needs to figure out how they can go about generating them.

Florida will lean on its ground game a bit more. RBs Lamical Perine and Jordan Scarlett both average 5.9 yards per carry. Michigan boasts a top-five run defense and allows just 3.4 yards per rush. But Wolverines star DL Rashan Gary will not play, and neither will  All-American linebacker Devin Bush, a Florida native and one of the team’s best run defenders.

Florida’s line is good enough that the Gators should be able to consistently carve out short gains on the ground, especially with Gary and Bush in street clothes. And whether or not Florida can get something going on the ground will have a lot to ay about the outcome of this game. The Gators were 8-0 when rushing for 200 or more yards, 1-3 when they didn’t.

Both Michigan (145.9 ypg) and Florida (173.1) have top-10 pass defenses by conventional stats, and each ranks in the 20s in S&P+. Florida’s defense feature a nasty pass rush, and is better against the pass than the run in general. Keep an eye on Gators stud DE Jachai Polite, a lightning-quick second-team All-America who posted 11 sacks, 16 TFL and five forced fumbles during the regular season.

Michigan’s passing offense, led by Ole Miss transfer QB Shea Patterson (2,364 yards, 21/5 TD/INT rate), has been extremely efficient. But it’s not at all explosive (No. 56), so Florida won’t have to worry about the deep sector of the field as their opponent. Michigan’s receiving corps is thin, with Nico Collins and Donovan Peoples-Jones generally divvying targets.

Michigan is going to Michigan, trying to establish the run while playing strong defense. Unfortunately for them, RB Karan Higdon (1,178 yards and 10 touchdowns on 5.3 ypc) also decided to sit out to begin his NFL preparations. So we’ll see a lot of Chris Evans. Bigger than the downgrade from Higdon-to-Evans is the downgrade from Evans-to-former walk-on Tru Wilson or true frosh Christian Turner as the change-of-pace back. Evans better get some rest. He's going to get a ton of touches.

I like Florida’s chances of neutering Michigan’s passing attack by blanketing the few viable targets the Wolverines have and getting into Patterson’s head with its pass rush. Dealing with Higdon would have been another story. Evans is a good player, but it is concerning that the depth of this crew has been wiped out when Michigan, if it had its druthers, would have liked to play ground-and-pound as much as possible.

And while we poo-poo Florida’s offense, Michigan’s deserves the same treatment. Against the two best defenses in faced this year — Notre Dame and Michigan State — the Wolverines scored 12.0 ppg. Toss the Northwestern game into the sample size and it’s 14.7 ppg over three. Florida’s defense isn’t as good as ND or MSU’s, but it’s better than Northwestern’s. Michigan may have trouble scoring more than 21 points on offense.

In this year’s bowl slate, Georgia is a popular motivation-question team. But many folks I read interestingly don’t have that same pop-psychology read on Michigan. And I wonder why. The Wolverines, like Georgia, were on the doorstep of the Playoff late last month. In Michigan’s case, beating Ohio State as 4.5-point favorites and then beating Northwestern as (presumed) 20-point favorites and you're in.

But the Wolverines got blasted by Ohio State and have now sat dormant for a month. And we’re supposed to assume that the very next time out, in a true bubble-burst scenario, that the Wolverines will bring A-effort? Why? For a team that struggles under the bright lights as is, why do we assume that this letdown bowl placement will bring out its best?

Last year’s bowl date with an unsexy SEC team didn’t end well for Harbaugh and crew. The Wolverines were listless throughout that game against the Gamecocks and got what was coming to them. Michigan is in a tough spot heading into this game. They’re supposed to understand that it’s not acceptable to be playing in this game — that they should be in the Playoff — while simultaneously taking it as seriously as they’ve taken any game this season. Basically, they’re to perceive themselves as better than the situation while taking the situation seriously enough to excel in it.

Michigan, like Alabama before it modernized its offense, is tremendous against phone booth teams, and they struggle against spread attacks. Florida, like Ohio State, has no interest in stepping into a phone booth with Michigan. The Gators run zone-read, play up-tempo, and attack the middle of the field. You know, like Ohio State.

To me, the Gators have a big psychological advantage heading into this game. In Year 1 of the Dan Mullen regime, this is a dream landing spot. An opportunity to welcome a Big 10 heavyweight to SEC country and show the country’s best high school players that Florida football is back. Per ESPN’s Chris Fallica, SEC teams are 16-4 ATS and 11-9 SU in their last 20 bowl games as underdogs of six points or more.

The loss of Gary was expected. But the losses of LB Devin Bush and Michigan RB Karan Higdon really hurt, because those two players specifically were instrumental in how Michigan’s offense would have gone about attacking Florida’s defense, and how Michigan’s defense would have gone about slowing Florida’s run game and defending the box in passing situations, a very underrated aspect of this game. The Gators now figure to target Michigan even more on crossing routes across this movie.

We’ve seen this movie before. Give me the Gators. Outright.

The pick: Florida +6

Belk Bowl

Noon ET, ABC
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
South Carolina (No. 33 S&P+) -5 vs. Virginia (No. 42 S&P+)
Total: 54
ATL: South Carolina -4

 

At a glance

South Carolina (7-5 vs. No. 9 SOS) - S&P+ off (29, 71/18), def (61, 94/35), ST (3)
vs.
Virginia (7-5 vs. No. 97 SOS) - S&P+ off (65, 99/62), def (29, 39/27), ST (70)

Oddmaker's intel

Kevin Bradley, Bovada.lv Sportsbook manager: “The line opened at 4.5 and stayed there for a while. On December 21, we started taking a run of big sharp bets on that number so we moved it to 5 and eventually 5.5. We have some small exposure at 4.5 and 5, but are seeing two-sided action now and projected that to continue till kickoff.”

Tony Pauline’s top NFL prospects

South Carolina WR Deebo Samuel (Round 2 grade): “Consistent receiver who flashes big play ability. Likely a second wide out in the NFL but projects well at the next level.”

Virginia DB Juan Thornhill (Round 3 grade): “Reliable defensive back who can line up at safety or zone corner. Combines good size, smarts and a physical nature.”

Sitting: South Carolina WR Deebo Samuel

The ‘cap

I know what I’m getting with South Carolina. So, for me, this handicap comes down to Virginia, a hard team to get a read on. The Cavaliers started 6-2 behind a strong dual-threat quarterback (Bryce Perkins), an efficient-if-mediocre offense, and a stingy defense. But as the Cavs lost three of four down the stretch, they came across as a limited squad that good teams could discombobulate by focusing on the mere three legitimate offensive playmakers on UVA’s roster.

The run defense was great early on — allowing 200 ground yards only once in the first eight games — but cratered down the stretch, coughing up 200+ yards in each of the last four games. The Cavs went 0-4 when the opponent reached 250 rushing yards. They also went 0-3 ATS against teams that averaged 250 yards or more passing.

After the rough end to the regular season, Virginia fell to 10-15 ATS under HC Bronco Mendenhall in October, November and December. The Cavs, to this early juncture of the objectively successful Mendenhall era, have roared out of the gates in the first month of the season before fading late.

But we need to offer a few caveats. First, Virginia has three strong wins on its resume, beating Ohio, Miami and Duke. Second, Virginia should have won each of its last two games. It finished with a 99% postgame win expectancy in the three-point loss to Georgia Tech (UVA had almost 100 more yards total and also averaged more yards per play) and a 70% postgame win expectancy in the three-point loss to Virginia Tech.

According to S&P+’s second-order wins, Virginia was actually the seventh-unluckiest team in the country. The Cavs finished with 7.9 second-order wins (+0.9), mostly because of the results of those last two games, which should have yielded at least one win (and probably two).

South Carolina comes in with an identical 7-5 record. But the five losses were to Georgia (the best team not in the Playoff), Kentucky (top-40 quality), Texas A&M (top-20), Florida (top-15), and Clemson (top-2). Interestingly, according to its 5.8 second-order wins, South Carolina was actually one of the luckiest teams in the country (+1.2).

QB Jake Bentley (2,953 yards, 27/12 TD/INT rate) missed the win over Missouri. After returning, he was dynamite down the stretch, though, throwing for 20 TD in the last seven games, which included 510 yards and five passing TD in the regular season finale against Clemson’s vaunted defense.

Bentley was awesome in last year’s bowl game, throwing for 250 yards in a comeback win over Michigan in the Outback Bowl. WR Deebo Samuel (1,478 all-purpose yards, nearly one-quarter of South Carolina’s total yards this season) will sit, which hurts, but that should mean more targets for stud WR Bryan Edwards. Edwards has a very intriguing matchup against Virginia first-team All-ACC CB Bryce Hall, the NCAA leader with 20 pass breakups.

South Carolina enters with big advantages on offense and special teams. UVA has the defensive edge. Virginia’s pass defense is very good overall, but it struggles with allowing explosive passes. Because of that, Samuel’s absence is outstanding news.

But Virginia’s offense is going to have to make something happen for the Cavs to win. The good news for South Carolina is they only have to worry about three guys. The dual-threat Perkins — affectionately dubbed “Bryce Twerkins” by my friend Kyle Francis — is a fabulous runner (over 1,000 rushing yards with sack yardage omitted) and an efficient passer who takes what’s given to him. Active South Carolina “Buck” Bryson Allen-Williams refers to Perkins as “a bigger Quinton Flowers,” which is such a good comp that I immediately hated him for thinking of it before me.

Perkins isn’t capable of beating you over the top, and Virginia doesn’t ask him to try. He’s basically just trying to shuttle the ball off to all-purpose weapon Olamide Zaccheaus on high-percentage quick-hitters as often as he can, with Hasise Dubois getting the leftover targets. Virginia RB Jordan Ellis (920 yards with nine touchdowns) is around to grind upfield for four or five yards a pop (and nothing more).

That’s the offense. That’s it. If you can keep Perkins in the pocket, and if you can limit Zaccheaus’ touches, you’re going to do fine against Virginia. If you can erase Ellis while you’re doing it, Virginia will turn into a three-and-out machine. Easier said than done.

South Carolina has a strong pass defense. It should be fine in that facet of the game, especially as it shades coverage towards Zaccheaus. This game only goes awry for South Carolina if the offense starts to struggle and the defense gets cut up by Perkins and Ellis on the ground. And South Carolina is missing defensive linemen Javon Kinlaw, D.J. Wonnun and Daniel Fennell due to injury.

Motivation is probably a wash. And Virginia HC Bronco Mendendall, traditionally a stud in bowl season (last year notwithstanding) seems to agree. “For both teams, eight looks a lot better than seven,” Mendenhall said. “There is a lot at stake. I think you’ll find two really hungry football teams that think this game is meaningful, important and impactful. Our team is wildly excited about this matchup with South Carolina. They view it as an occasion to rise to.”

For his part, South Carolina coach Will Muschamp told the media that his team wouldn't come anywhere close to practicing the 15 times that’s most often cited for bowl prep. “It becomes almost a punishment to play in a bowl game if you practice 15 more practices,” Muschamp told the Charlotte Observer. “At the end of the day, I want it to be a reward for the season we had. Obviously do we need to get the practice time in and practice? Absolutely. We’re going to get in really good work. We’re going to have, from Monday to Saturday, a great work week in Columbia.”

Muschamp is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS in bowl games at South Carolina after last year’s 26-19 win over Michigan. The Cavaliers didn’t fare as well last season, getting throttled by Navy 49-7 in the Eagle Bank Bowl as 2.5-point underdogs. Maybe the bowl struggles are just a Virginia thing. The Cavs are 3-8 over 11 bowl games since 1995.

This game is being played 90 minutes from South Carolina’s campus, so give them a small uptick for home field advantage. South Carolina has the momentum edge, and a big strength of schedule edge. But you have to negate some of the SOS advantage because of UVA’s two-game edge in second-order wins. To be honest, I struggled mightily with this game. I went back-and-forth. At the end of the day, I trust South Carolina a little more, so I lean that direction.

The pick: South Carolina -5

NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl

1:15 p.m. ET, CBSSN
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
Nevada (No. 79 S&P+) -1.5 Arkansas State (No. 50 S&P+)
Total: 56

 

At a glance

Arkansas State (8-4 vs. No. 81 SOS) - S&P+ off (35, 59/69), def (65, 87/40), ST (92)
vs.
Nevada (7-5 vs. No. 101 SOS) - S&P+ off (72, 65/95), def (68, 16/62), ST (71)

Oddmaker's intel

Kevin Bradley, Bovada.lv Sportsbook manager: “There has been a big four-point move on the total in this game from the opener of 60 to the current number of 56. This seems to be a trend this bowl season as we are seeing more under bets than usual. I believe the total may have moved too much and would not be surprised if it went up a point or two before kickoff.”

Tony Pauline’s top NFL prospects

Arkansas State OG Lanard Bonner (Round 7 grade): “Underrated college tackle who projects to guard at the next level. Sized well, surprising mobile and effective in motion.”

Nevada LB Malik Reed (UDFA grade): “Productive college pass rusher with poor computer numbers for the next level. Explosive, intense and plays through the whistle but small and slow.”

The ‘cap

This game appears to have snuck off from a December 15 kick and wandered onto a day it didn’t belong. But it does hold intrigue. This is a classic bowl scenario of two teams going in opposite directions.

I’m out on Nevada.

Nevada lost to lowly UNLV 34-29 in the regular season finale. Prior to that, a sluggish non-cover against San Jose State, one of the few teams in the nation worse than UNLV. Nevada beat only one team inside the S&P+ top-99 this year. That win, over San Diego State, was quite fluky, a four-point victory where Nevada finished with a postgame adjusted scoring margin of -11.1 (i.e. S&P+ thought SDSU would have won by 11 if luck was normalized).

The records and resumes of these teams may appear similar at a glance. But they’re not. Even against its awful schedule, Nevada was worse than it appeared to be. Nevada finished with 6.4 second-order wins against the No. 101 schedule. Arkansas State finished with 7.8 second order wins against the No. 81 SOS.

Arkansas State has won four straight. In those games, they allowed a total of 54 points and won by an average of 23 points. The Red Wolves have also scored 31 points or more in each of its last six games. ASU was reliable and consistent throughout the year.

They went 0-4 against bowl teams (Alabama, Louisiana-Lafayette, Georgia Southern, and Appalachian State) and 8-0 against everyone else. It’s concerning that ASU’s best win was over UL-Monroe. But to be fair, they stayed within one possession of ULL and GSU, and they played a tougher schedule than their opponent.

Both of these defenses are very active up front. The Red Wolves racked up 91 TFL and 32 sacks. The defense is led by senior DE Ronheen Bingham (nine sacks and 18.5 TFL). The Wolf Pack finished with 93 TFL and 32 sacks, led by senior LB Maik Reed (eight sacks, 15.5 TFL).

ASU’s defense is particularly stingy on third downs, which is clutch in this matchup. Nevada is awful on third downs, converting only 33.7 percent of its opportunities (No. 116). Arkansas State is also far better at taking care of the ball. ASU had only 13 turnovers (six fumbles lost, seven interceptions) this year. Nevada had 26 turnovers (11 and 15).

Taking care of the ball better was clearly a priority for Arkansas State and QB Justice Hansen. Hansen, the Sun Belt player of the year, threw for 3,172 yards with a 27/6 TD/INT ratio and and ran for 517 more yards (sack yardage omitted) with six more scores. Hansen’s receiving corps is extremely deep, led by former Oregon and Texas A&M WR Kirk Merritt (call him Dee Merritt off the field, but on it he’s difficult to contain).

The passing attack is strong enough that it opens up space for undersized grinders RBs Marcel Murray (the Sun Belt freshman of the year) and Warren Wand to do a little damage. The pair divvied carries pretty evenly and came out with 260 attempts for 1,445 yards and 11 TD in sum.

Nevada’s offense is the reason the Wolf Pack didn’t take a bigger leap forward. It’s basically an Air Raid that went through long stretches where it struggled to throw the ball effectively. Nevada QB Ty Gangi (3,131 yards for a 23/11 TD/INT ratio) is a decent-but-limited system player.

The Wolf Pack tried to find a better quarterback but ultimately surrendered and threw in their lot with Gangi last fall. Unfortunately for Gangi, his top receiver, McLane Mannix, has transferred to Texas Tech. So guys like Kaleb Fossum and Romeo Doubs are going to have to step up. The run game simply isn’t good enough to shoulder the offense.

Lastly, you have to give Arkansas State the coaching edge. Blake Anderson has won seven or more games every season he’s been at ASU and is one of the G5’s best coaches. And with Anderson’s wife in a public battle with cancer, the Red Wolves, a tight-knit bunch, will be motivated to close out the season strong for the Anderson family.

The pick: Arkansas State +1.5, Under 56

Thor Nystrom

Thor Nystrom is Rotoworld’s lead CFB writer. The 2018 FSWA College Sports Writer of the Year, Nystrom’s writing has also been honored by Rolling Stone magazine and The Best American Essays series. Say hi to him on Twitter @thorku!