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The Worksheet

The NFL Week 11 Worksheet

by Rich Hribar
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

We’re making the final push towards the regular season finish line for fantasy leagues and hopefully everyone is tying up playoff spots. If not, then make sure you’re dabbling in DFS to tide you over for the rest of the season as you have the freedom to play any level you want. 

 

Let me provide the disclaimer that I encourage you use the game by game tables and data points in conjunction with your own information and thought process rather than searching out your own players in the individual player diagnosis and turning that section into a linear start/sit guide. You can always cross reference these thoughts with my weekly rankings for further context. With that out of the way, let’s hit all the Week 11 games in a PPR light...

 

New Orleans vs. Carolina


Saints Rank @ Panthers Rank
3   Spread -3  
24.3   Implied Total 27.3  
69.1 4 Plays/Gm 67.3 5
65.7 24 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.6 14
37.5% 22 Rush% 41.9% 9
62.5% 11 Pass% 58.1% 24
39.9% 17 Opp. Rush % 36.5% 5
60.1% 16 Opp. Pass % 63.5% 28

 

 

  • New Orleans is averaging 27.5 points (5th) and 3.5 offensive touchdowns (3rd) per game on the road this season.
  • The Panthers only allow 70.3 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields, the third fewest in the league.
  • Opposing teams have run the ball on just 24.5 percent of their offensive plays versus Carolina over the past three weeks, the lowest rate in the league.
  • 77.5 percent of the yardage allowed by the Panthers is through the air, the highest percentage in the league.
  • Brandin Cooks (10.4 yards), Willie Snead (9.0) and Michael Thomas (8.9) rank third, 11th and 13th among all wide receivers with 50 or more targets on the season.
  • Cooks (1.9), Thomas (1.69) and Snead (1.68) rank second, 7thn and 8th in fantasy points per target for all receivers in the top-40 of scoring on the season.
  • Drew Brees has completed 25 of 31 passes for 16 touchdowns from inside of the 10-yard line this season, the highest completion rate in the league in that area of the field.
  • The Saints are allowing 304 passing yards to opposing passers per game, the most in the league.
  • Carolina has averaged 36.8 points per game over the past four meetings with the Saints.
  • Cam Newton has scored 25 or more points in each of those games, finishing as the QB1, QB3, QB1 and QB6 those weeks.
  • Greg Olsen has been the TE3, TE1, TE1 and TE6 over that same span with 90 yards receiving or a touchdown in every game.

 

Trust: Drew Brees (he’s been just fine over his past two on the road and this game sets up for the Saints to be extremely pass-heavy against an exploitable secondary), Brandin Cooks/Michael Thomas (both were top-12 scorers in the first meeting between these teams), Cam Newton (Cam’s passing numbers have gone by the matchup this season and this is as good as it gets in that regard before you even factor in his rushing ability), Greg Olsen (he’s roasted the Saints and if we like Newton to stack air yards, we should like his favorite target), Kelvin Benjamin (he’s had a great yardage floor, hitting 70-yards or more in five straight, but hasn’t found the paint since Week 4, something that won’t have much higher odds of happening than in this one)

 

Bust: Mark Ingram/Tim Hightower (between the workload split and the Panthers shutting down the run, expectations for either to carry a high ceiling here are thin)

 

Reasonable Return: Willie Snead (he was the odd man out in the first meeting, but he’s getting just as much weekly opportunity as Cooks or Thomas), Ted Ginn (he has five receptions in each of his past four games with over 20 percent of the team targets in three straight), Coby Fleener (he hasn’t been a top-12 scorer since these teams last met in Week 6, but his snaps went back up last week and the Panthers are allowing the 6th most yards per game to opposing tight ends), Jonathan Stewart (he’s gone over 100 total yards in just one of his four games since returning, but is in play for touchdown appeal here)

 

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Arizona vs. Minnesota

 

Cardinals Rank @ Vikings Rank
PK   Spread PK  
20.5   Implied Total 20.5  
71.1 1 Plays/Gm 63.9 18
62.9 12 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.6 9
37.2% 23 Rush% 40.9% 13
62.8% 10 Pass% 59.1% 20
42.4% 24 Opp. Rush % 37.8% 9
57.6% 9 Opp. Pass % 62.2% 24

 

  • David Johnson's streak of nine straight games with at least 100-yards from scrimmage is the longest since Eddie Lacy in 2014.
  • Johnson has 11 rushing attempts from inside of the 5-yard line, tied for third in the league.
  • After allowing 77.8 rushing yards per game through five weeks, the Vikings have allowed 121 yards rushing per game since.
  • Minnesota has allowed just seven rushing attempts from inside of the 5-yard line as a defense, tied for the fewest in the league.
  • Carson Palmer ranks 25th in passing points per attempt (.380) while Minnesota ranks third in passing points per attempt allowed (.313).
  • Arizona has scored a touchdown on 12.8 percent of their possessions (five of 39) over their past three games, 28th in the league over that time.
  • The Vikings are the only team in the league that has yet to allow three touchdowns in a game this season and haven't allowed three or more touchdowns in 13 consecutive games dating back to last season, the longest streak in the league since 2004.
  • Stefon Diggs is the first Minnesota receiver to have multiple games of 150 or more receiving yards in the same season since Sidney Rice in 2009.
  • Diggs is just the second Minnesota receiver ever to have back to back games with 10 or more receptions, joining Cris Carter in 1995.
  • Per Pro Football Focus, Diggs has run 77 percent of his routes from the slot over the past two weeks after 51 percent through his first six games.
  • Per Pro Football Focus, Patrick Peterson has allowed a touchdown once every 6.1 targets in the slot as opposed to once every 22.3 targets on the outside. 
  • Just 35.3 percent of the touchdowns scored versus Arizona have come via the pass, the lowest share in the league.
  • Minnesota is averaging 2.7 yards per rushing attempt, the lowest in the league. The last time a team averaged fewer than 3.0 yards per carry for the entire season was the 1994 Patriots (2.8 YPC).

 

Trust: David Johnson (even through two straight games of rushing ineffectiveness, he’s shown his all-purpose floor is one of the best in the league), Stefon Diggs (he is stacking absurd volume which is creating a stellar receiving floor while Arizona has allowed six or more receptions to a plethora of slot options including Jeremy Kerley twice, Julian Edelman, Doug Baldwin and Adam Humphries

 

Bust: Carson Palmer (he’s thrown for 300-yards in three straight, but has been inside of the top-15 just once over that span while the highest finish against the Vikings on the season has been QB12), Kyle Rudolph (Arizona is allowing the fewest receptions and yards to opposing tight ends and have yet to allow a touchdown to the position on the season), MIN Running Backs (the league’s worst rushing offense facing the team allowing the fewest points per game to opposing backfields), Sam Bradford (Arizona’s vulnerability versus opposing signal callers has been to rushing output, something that Bradford is bringing to the table)

 

Reasonable Return: Michael Floyd/John Brown/J.J. Nelson (with Larry Fitzgerald’s status up in the air at the moment and Andre Ellington getting practice reps at wide receiver, Floyd and Brown could be asked to come back from the grave this week while Nelson has a shot to make up for his horrendous game last week, but Minnesota has allowed just three top-20 receivers on the season, so no receiver here will have more than lower end WR2 expectations even with a target bump)

 

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Buffalo vs. Cincinnati 

 

Bills Rank @ Bengals Rank
3   Spread -3  
22.0   Implied Total 25.0  
62.4 24 Plays/Gm 65.3 14
62.2 8 Opp. Plays/Gm 64.6 17
47.0% 4 Rush% 41.3% 11
53.0% 29 Pass% 58.7% 22
43.2% 26 Opp. Rush % 41.0% 22
56.8% 7 Opp. Pass % 59.0% 11

 

  • Tyrod Taylor has 15 or more fantasy points in eight consecutive games, tied with Dak Prescott for the longest streak in the league.
  • 23.9 percent of Taylor's fantasy output has come via passing touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league.
  • Robert Woods has 27.6 percent of the team targets in the games he’s been active without Sammy Watkins.
  • The Bills have averaged 3.8 offensive touchdowns per game at home (1st) and 2.2 per game (16th) on the road.
  • Only 12.7 percent of the plays run against the Bills have come from inside the red zone, the third lowest rate in the league.
  • 55 percent of the completions against the Bills have gained 10 or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
  • Buffalo is allowing 8.7 yards per pass attempt over their past three games, the highest in the league.
  • The Bills have allowed opponents to score on 57 percent of their drives over their past three games (last in the league) after allowing them to score on 33 percent (8th) through six weeks.
  • The Bills are allowing 10.4 yards per target to opposing tight ends, the highest in the league and 8.8 yards per target to opposing wide receivers, the third highest.

 

Trust: A.J. Green/Tyler Eifert (the Bills have been vulnerable through the air to opposing wideouts and tight ends while the Bengals passing game primarily runs through these two players), LeSean McCoy (the Bengals have allowed just one 100-yard rusher on the season, but are allowing the 9th most total yards per game to backfields while McCoy is near lock for 20 touches)

 

Bust: Giovani Bernard (he has just five receptions since Eifert returned to the offense and the Bills have surrendered the third fewest receiving points to backfields this season)

 

Reasonable Return: Tyrod Taylor (he’s held a steady floor at the position and the Bengals  have allowed 15 or more points to eight of the nine quarterbacks they’ve faced on the season), Andy Dalton (Buffalo has allowed 16 or more points to four straight quarterbacks and top-12 weeks in each of their past two), Jeremy Hill (his fantasy output is largely contingent on him finding the end zone, something nearly all of the power backs that have faced Buffalo have been able to do and is a home favorite), Robert Woods (even a low passing volume offense, he has a large enough share of the targets to be useful weekly while the Bengals have struggled against possession-type receivers on the season)

 

Chicago vs. New York (NFC)

 

Bears Rank @ Giants Rank
7   Spread -7  
19.3   Implied Total 26.3  
59.3 31 Plays/Gm 62.3 26
65.6 23 Opp. Plays/Gm 69.9 31
36.3% 26 Rush% 35.3% 28
63.7% 7 Pass% 64.7% 5
40.5% 20 Opp. Rush % 36.9% 7
59.5% 13 Opp. Pass % 63.1% 26

 

  • Chicago is allowing 76.3 rushing yards per game since Week 4, the third fewest in the league.
  • 77.1 percent of the yards gained against Chicago the past five weeks have come through the air, the third highest rate in the league.
  • 78.2 percent of the yards gained by the Giants have come through the air, the highest rate in the league.
  • The Giants are averaging 2.8 offensive touchdowns per game at home (12th) as opposed to 1.8 per game on the road (24th).
  • The Bears are allowing 29 points per game on the road (28th) and opposed to 17.5 per game at home (8th).
  • Odell Beckham leads the league in receiving yardage (572 yards) and receiving touchdowns (5) at home this season.
  • Beckham is the only wide receiver with eight or more targets in every game this season.
  • The Bears are the only team that hasn’t scored three touchdowns in a game this season.
  • The Giants have allowed a touchdown on just 15 percent of opponent's drives, the second lowest rate in the league.
  • Zach Miller has 19.2 percent of the Chicago targets, the 5th highest target market share for all tight ends in the league.
  • Jay Cutler is last in the league in fantasy points per possession (.78).
  • Jordan Howard is the first Chicago rookie to rush for 100-yards or more in four games since Rashaan Salaam in 1995.

 

Trust: Odell Beckham (after failing to score over the first four games of the season, he’s scored six times over his past five and has been a much better producer at home this season), Eli Manning (he’s thrown three or more touchdowns in three of his past four games while Chicago has become the passing funnel defense that we thought they would be this summer now that they have gotten healthier on defense)

 

Bust: Rashad Jennings/Paul Perkins (Jennings out-touched Perkins 18 to 9 last week, but this game isn’t set up for the Giants to do well on the ground outside of stacking attempts when the script is in their favor), Jay Cutler (the Giants are mushing the pass while the Bears will be without their best receiver), Bears WRs (as mentioned, the Giants have stifled the pass and Cutler has shown no connection with Cameron Meredith at this point. If I had to play someone here, I would lean Eddie Royal because of what slot options such as Jamison Crowder, Willie Snead and Randall Cobb have done against the Giants, but I'm not expecting much from the collective group)

 

Reasonable Return: Sterling Shepard (he still hasn’t gone over 50 yards in a game since Week 3, but with the Giants being forced to take to the air heavily to pull ahead, Shepard is in play for WR3 expectations as he’s scored in each of the past two games), Zach Miller (he’s the only pass catcher I feel good about in this game for Chicago and the Giants have been vulnerable to opposing tight ends in terms of receptions and yardage despite only allowing one touchdown to the position on the season), Jordan Howard (his availability will likely be vague all week long knowing John Fox, but if he’s good to play, then he’s the Bears’ best offensive player and should have enough volume to turn in a usable line despite the tougher matchup. If he's out, then avoid both Ka'Deem Carey and Jeremy Langford), Will Tye (he was the TE12 in a soft matchup last week against a Bears team that just allowed the TE2 a week ago, but it was also just the second top-12 TE scorer they've allowed on the season) 

 

Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland 

 

Steelers Rank @ Browns Rank
-9   Spread 9  
28.8   Implied Total 19.8  
64.4 16 Plays/Gm 59.9 29
62.7 11 Opp. Plays/Gm 67.8 29
34.7% 30 Rush% 35.2% 29
65.3% 3 Pass% 64.8% 4
37.9% 11 Opp. Rush % 46.9% 31
62.1% 22 Opp. Pass % 53.1% 2

 

  • Pittsburgh has averaged 17.5 points per game on the road this season (25th) as opposed to 28.8 per game at home (5th).
  • Cleveland has allowed multiple touchdown passes in nine games and three or more in six games, both are the most in the league.
  • Cleveland has allowed 40 pass plays of 20 or more yards, the most in the league.
  • 22.4 percent of Ben Roethlisberger's throws are passes 15 yards or further downfield, the highest rate in the league.
  • The Browns have allowed over 100-yards rushing in eight games this season, the most in the league.
  • Le'Veon Bell averages 9.3 targets per game, which would rank 14th at the wide receiver position.
  • Bell has five or more receptions in six straight games played, the longest streak for a running back since Matt Forte in 2014.
  • Cleveland has averaged just 257.7 yards of offense over the past three weeks, the fewest in the league.
  • Over that span, the Browns average only 14.7 rushing attempts per game, the fewest in the league.

 

Trust: Ben Roethlisberger (home/road splits be damned, he’s playing the Browns), Le’Veon Bell/Antonio Brown (two of the best weekly options regardless of matchup get one of the best matchups)

 

Bust: Isaiah Crowell (the Browns aren’t even attempting to run anymore as Crowell has 157 yards on the ground total over the past six weeks and the potential script here should put Cleveland in a hole once again), Corey Coleman (with the Browns offense sinking into the abyss here, Coleman can’t be trusted in lineups as he’s been the WR55 and WR67 since returning), Gary Barnidge (he’s had one week higher than TE19 over his past five games and has yet to score a touchdown on the season)

 

Reasonable Return: Eli Rogers (he’s been a top-30 scorer in each of the past two games while slot options have been trouble for the Browns all season), Jesse James/Ladarius Green (Green is still being eased back in, so it’s probable that a split remains in place this week, but if hunting for a deeper play off the wire in hopes for a touchdown, there are worse plays than a high powered offense facing the worst defense against the tight end position), Terrelle Pryor (he’s been far better with Cody Kessler at quarterback than anyone else and will push double digit targets, even if there’s nothing else to really like around him on this offense),  Duke Johnson (he has just five receptions the past two games, but Pittsburgh has struggled against backs out of the backfield, allowing the third most receiving points to the position)

 

Tampa Bay vs. Kansas City

 

Buccaneers Rank @ Chiefs Rank
7   Spread -7  
18.5   Implied Total 25.5  
69.4 2 Plays/Gm 63.2 19
64.9 19 Opp. Plays/Gm 65.4 21
40.5% 14 Rush% 38.7% 20
59.5% 19 Pass% 61.3% 13
42.5% 25 Opp. Rush % 39.9% 16
57.5% 8 Opp. Pass % 60.1% 17

 

  • Since allowing 43 points in Week 4, the Chiefs have allowed 15.2 points per game since, the fewest in the league.
  • Tampa Bay is allowing 136.4 rushing yards per game since Week 5, the 4th most in the league.
  • 20.6 percent of the rushing attempts Tampa Bay has faced this season have come from inside of the red zone, the highest rate in the league.
  • Tyreek Hill has been targeted on 36.7 percent of his routes, the highest rate for all wide receivers with at least 100 routes run on the season per Pro Football Focus.
  • The Chiefs have forced a turnover on 21 percent of opponent possessions, the highest rate in the league.
  • Mike Evans has at least 50 receiving yards in 12 straight games, the longest active streak in the league.
  • Doug Martin played 41 percent of the snaps and handled 50 percent of the backfield touches.
  • Cameron Brate has four touchdowns from inside of the 10-yard line, the most of all tight ends on the season.

 

Trust: Spencer Ware (everything is set up here for Ware to get back on track as the Chiefs are a heavy favorite at home while facing a defense allowing a lot of yardage on the ground)

 

Bust: Travis Kelce (you’re looking for a touchdown here as he has just one week higher than TE16 over the Chiefs current five game win streak and Tampa Bay has allowed more than four receptions to just two tight ends on the season), Jameis Winston (he’s thrown just three touchdowns in the four games in which Tampa Bay was seven point or more underdogs and the team total here is begging us to look elsewhere this week), Cameron Brate (I’ve been swimming upstream with Brate, but he’s been an effective red zone option at the very least. Still, we always fade tight ends facing Kansas City)

 

Reasonable Return: Alex Smith (Tampa Bay is a weekly target for those looking to hit the wire, but Smith is unlikely to stack attempts in this one, rendering him touchdown dependent, which is always dicey with him), Tyreek Hill (if Jeremy Maclin is back, then he’s back to being a niche option, but if Maclin is held out again, Hill is the only player in this passing game worth looking at other than those using Kelce), Mike Evans (even on a season-low five targets last week he managed to squeeze out double digit points while the Chiefs have allowed 75 or more yards to nine different receivers on the season), Doug Martin (this isn’t a great paper spot for a running back as a big, road underdog, but the Chiefs have given up yards on the ground, allowing the 10th most yards per game on the ground to opposing backs)

 

Baltimore vs. Dallas

 

Ravens Rank @ Cowboys Rank
7   Spread -7  
19.0   Implied Total 26.0  
69.1 3 Plays/Gm 66.4 7
58.8 1 Opp. Plays/Gm 60.9 4
35.5% 27 Rush% 50.7% 1
64.5% 6 Pass% 49.3% 32
36.7% 6 Opp. Rush % 33.4% 1
63.3% 27 Opp. Pass % 66.6% 32

 

  • Joe Flacco has completed 25 or more passes in seven games this season, tied with Drew Brees for the most in the league.
  • Dallas is allowing 26.8 completions per game, the second most in the league.
  • Flacco has completed 27 percent of his passes 15 yards or more downfield (17-63), the lowest rate for all quarterbacks with 25 or more attempts.
  • The Cowboys are now averaging 3.3 offensive touchdowns per game, tied for second in the league behind the Saints (3.6).
  • Dallas has scored 24 or more points in eight consecutive games, their longest streak in a season since 2007.
  • Dallas averages 40.7 yards per possession, most in the league.
  • The Ravens are allowing 22.2 yards per opponent's possession, the fewest in the league.
  • Dak Prescott has scored 17 or more fantasy points in eight games this season, the most in the league.
  • Prescott is third in the league in adjusted yards per pass attempt (9.0 AY/A). Baltimore is allowing 6.0 AY/A, 5th in the league.
  • Ezekiel Elliott leads the league in carries that have gained five or more yards (79) and runs that have gained 10 or more yards (29).
  • Baltimore allows the fewest rushing points per game (8.4) while Dallas allowed the third fewest (9.9) to opposing backfields.
  • 40.9 percent of Dez Bryant's receptions have come on targets 15 yards or further downfield, the highest rate in the league.

 

Trust: Ezekiel Elliott (we’ve been down this road before with Zeke having a potentially bad draw on paper, but Dallas has shown the ability to run on anyone while Baltimore hasn't faced a wealth of strong rushing opponents in tallying their numbers to this point)

 

Bust: Terrance West (he hasn’t finished higher than RB24 over the past three games and Dallas sees the fewest rushing attempts per week), Joe Flacco (he had some bounce back on expected positive  touchdown regression a week ago, but even while he has consistent passing volume, he’s had just two weeks in the top half of scoring), Mike Wallace (he has more than six targets in just one game playing alongside Steve Smith and Dallas isn’t giving up many splash plays on the back end), Jason Witten (he’s had back to back double digit scoring games for the first time all season, but Baltimore has eliminated tight ends so far, allowing just one top-12 scoring week on the season), Cole Beasley (he’s been outside of the top-50 now in two of three games since Bryant has returned and Baltimore has allowed just one touchdown from the slot this season)

 

Reasonable Return: Steve Smith (Smith fits the mold of the type of intermediate target that has given Dallas the most trouble this season), Kenneth Dixon (while West out-carried him 21 to six last week, Dixon found a role in the passing game, seeing seven targets on his way to a top-15 scoring week. With West anticipated to struggle, Dixon should be a solid option out of the backfield once again as Dallas has allowed five or more receptions out of the backfield to a player in each of their past four games), Dak Prescott (Prescott has an amazing floor, but his ceiling may be tougher to reach here as Baltimore has allowed just two quarterbacks to finish higher than QB12), Dez Bryant (his targets and inefficiency have shown to be volatile to continuously go all in on, but you keep getting him out there as Baltimore has allowed multiple touchdowns to four different receivers and seven top-20 weeks)

 

Jacksonville vs. Detroit

 

Jaguars Rank @ Lions Rank
6.5   Spread -6.5  
20.3   Implied Total 26.8  
65.4 13 Plays/Gm 59.7 30
65.8 26 Opp. Plays/Gm 61.9 5
31.9% 32 Rush% 37.1% 24
68.1% 1 Pass% 62.9% 9
44.9% 30 Opp. Rush % 40.2% 19
55.1% 3 Opp. Pass % 59.8% 14

 

  • Opposing passers have completed 74.1 percent of their passes against Detroit, the highest rate any team has allowed through their opening nine games in NFL history.
  • 83.3 percent of the touchdowns scored against the Lions have been through the air, the highest share in the league.
  • The Lions allow 28.8 passing yards and 2.0 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks per possession, the most in the league.
  • Chris Ivory ranks last in percentage of carries to go for five yards or more (23.1 percent) for all backs with 50 or more carries on the season.
  • The Jaguars have trailed for 75.7 percent of their offensive snaps, the highest rate in the league.
  • Detroit passes 59.7 percent of the time while they're ahead, the second highest rate in the league.
  • Golden Tate has out-targeted Marvin Jones 43 to 23 over the past four games after Jones out-targeted Tate 41 to 31 through five weeks.
  • The Jaguars have allowed just 21 pass plays of 20 or more yards, the fewest in the league.

 

Trust: Matthew Stafford/Golden Tate (the Jaguars give up a lot of receptions near the line of scrimmage, something right in the wheelhouse for what this connection is all about), Theo Riddick (Riddick is an extension of what was just mentioned for Tate and Stafford and the Jaguars face 29.6 touches per game from opposing backfields, the third most in the league)

 

Bust: Allen Hurns (there could be opportunity here if Robinson is tied up with Slay all game, but Hurns has been inside of the top-40 just three times, so there’s a leap of faith you’re required to take when using him), Chris Ivory (the matchup isn’t daunting and the passing game may set up some scoring chances here, but he’s yet to have double digit carries in back to back games all season and is a back who gets better with volume, something that is in question as a road underdog), Marvin Jones (a vertical threat against a defense not allowing vertical plays)

 

Reasonable Return: Blake Bortles (he’s tough to go head first in on and the implied total here isn’t endearing, but he has 17 or more points in three straight while Detroit has been one of the premier fantasy matchups), Allen Robinson (Darius Slay should be back this week, but Robinson has 11 or more targets with 70 or more yards in three straight), Julius Thomas (he hasn’t hit 30 yards receiving since Week 2, but has scored in three of his past four and is facing the team allowing the most touchdowns to the position if you’re fishing for a score at the position), T.J. Yeldon (he’s been far more consistent as a fantasy option than Ivory due to his receiving work as he’s been a top-30 scorer three weeks in a row), Eric Ebron (he has 14 receptions and 18 targets over his past two, but the Jaguars haven’t allowed any tight end inside of the top-12 on the season)

 

Tennessee vs. Indianapolis


Titans Rank @ Colts Rank
3   Spread -3  
24.8   Implied Total 27.8  
63.2 20 Plays/Gm 66.3 10
63.3 13 Opp. Plays/Gm 65.1 20
47.3% 2 Rush% 36.4% 25
52.7% 31 Pass% 63.7% 8
34.6% 2 Opp. Rush % 37.9% 10
65.4% 31 Opp. Pass % 62.1% 23

 

  • The Titans have scored 25 or more points in six straight games, their longest streak since 2003.
  • Tennessee leads the league in touchdown conversion rate in the red zone at 76.5 percent of their red zone possessions. League average outside of them is 55.1 percent.
  • Opponents have scored on 49.5 percent of their possessions versus the Colts, the highest rate in the league.
  • Marcus Mariota leads the league with eight games with multiple touchdown passes.
  • Mariota's six straight games with multiple touchdown passes has tied Warren Moon in 1987 for the longest streak in franchise history.
  • 18.4 percent of Mariota's completions have gained 20 or more yards, the highest rate behind Matt Ryan (19.6 percent).
  • Indianapolis is allowing 18.8 passing points per game, the 4th most in the league.
  • DeMarco Murray has played 81 percent of the Tennessee offensive snaps, second only to David Johnson (85 percent) at running back.
  • 29.9 percent of Rishard Matthews' scoring has come from touchdown production, the second highest rate of all wide receivers in the top-40 of scoring on the season.
  • 32.7 percent of T.Y. Hilton's receptions have gained 20 or more yards, trailing only Julio Jones (35 percent) for all wide receivers with 25 or more receptions on the season.
  • Donte Moncrief has scored a touchdown in eight of his past 10 full games played with Andrew Luck.
  • Over that same span, Moncrief has reached 70-yards in a game just once and been held to fewer than 50 yards in six of those games.

 

Trust: Marcus Mariota/DeMarco Murray/Delanie Walker (the three main pieces of a hot offense against a defense that has a deficiency defending all three of their positions) Andrew Luck (he was the QB1 against the Titans in Week 7 as a road underdog while the Titans have allowed 18 or more points to each of the past five quarterbacks they’ve faced), T.Y. Hilton (lead receivers have had their way with the Titans, including Hilton who dropped a 7-133-1 line on them a few weeks ago)

 

Bust: Kendall Wright (you’re chasing a touchdown here even more so than you are with Matthews as Wright has had more than five targets in just one game all season and even while scoring in three of his past five, has been a top-50 player just twice)

 

Reasonable Return: Rishard Matthews (he’s had over 20 percent of the team targets in just two games and eventually is going to leave you dry when he fails to score a touchdown, but with Mariota as hot as he is, you just keep riding the wave), Frank Gore (he’s the definition of Reasonable Return as he’s had double digit points in every game except for one and has been outside of the top-24 just once since Week 1), Donte Moncrief (there are points to be had against the Titans through the air and Moncrief has the highest touchdown probability of all of the receivers, even if his yardage floor isn’t as strong as we’d like), Jack Doyle (even with Dwayne Allen back, Doyle had nine targets and a tight end has scored in three of the past four against Tennessee)

 

Miami vs. Los Angeles

 

Dolphins Rank @ Rams Rank
1   Spread -1  
19.8   Implied Total 20.8  
56.9 32 Plays/Gm 62.4 25
66.3 27 Opp. Plays/Gm 64.7 18
44.1% 6 Rush% 40.2% 17
55.9% 27 Pass% 59.8% 16
44.1% 28 Opp. Rush % 40.6% 21
56.0% 5 Opp. Pass % 59.5% 12

 

  • Los Angeles is last in the league in points per offensive play (.247).
  • The Rams are the first team to win multiple games in a season without a touchdown since the 2002 Buccaneers.
  • Over their past three games, the Rams have scored a touchdown on just 5.9 percent (2-34) of their possessions, last in the league.
  • Over that same span, the Rams have allowed opponents to score a touchdown on 9.4 percent (3-32) of their possessions, the fewest in the league.
  • Todd Gurley has averaged fewer than 4.0 yards per carry in seven games this season, the most in the league.
  • Gurley is 7th in touches per game (21.4), but 20th in yards from scrimmage (79.7) among running backs.
  • Ryan Tannehill has just four red zone touchdown passes, the fewest of all full-season starting quarterbacks.
  • Miami has rushed for 156.2 yards per game at home (4th) and 75.5 yards per game on the road (27th).
  • Jarvis Landry is just the 9th player ever to have 50 or more receptions and one or fewer touchdowns through nine games of a season.

 

Bust: Ryan Tannehill (the Dolphins recent offensive recipe aids itself in this game playing out in a similar fashion of recent games involving the Rams since they want to do the same types of things, so it’s hard to like any passing in this one while the Rams have allowed just two quarterbacks to finish inside of the top-15 and have allowed one or fewer touchdown passes in six of nine games this season), Jarvis Landry (he’s been a top-24 scorer in just one of his past six games as he’s seen just 6.4 targets per game over that stretch and isn’t the touchdown threat to smooth out his decline in opportunities), Jared Goff (his first ever playing time and it’s coming now more by default than a true endorsement from the organization)

 

Reasonable Return: Jay Ajayi (he has 20 or more touches in four straight, but isn’t getting a lot of receiving work to inflate a mediocre rushing game like he had last week, while the Rams have allowed just three top-12 backs this season),  Todd Gurley (the weekly expectations for Gurley are basically a poor man’s version of Frank Gore in a terrible offense at this point, just take your 70-90 yards from scrimmage and carry on), Kenny Britt (it’s unknown how he’ll do with Goff, but he has 75 yards or a touchdown in five of his past six games)

 

New England vs. San Francisco 

 

Patriots Rank @ 49ers Rank
-13   Spread -13  
31.8   Implied Total 18.8  
63.1 22 Plays/Gm 63.1 21
65.6 22 Opp. Plays/Gm 71.7 32
47.2% 3 Rush% 46.7% 5
52.8% 30 Pass% 53.4% 28
37.6% 8 Opp. Rush % 49.2% 32
62.4% 25 Opp. Pass % 50.9% 1

 

  • Opponents average 12.3 possessions per game against the 49ers, the most in the league.
  • San Francisco allows 3.6 offensive touchdowns per game, the second most in the league.
  • Tom Brady is averaging .671 passing points per attempt, the most in the league. San Francisco is allowing .494 passing points per attempt, 28th in the league.
  • Martellus Bennett's 10.7 yards per target is second to only Rob Gronkowski (15.0) for all top-12 scorers on the season at the tight end position.              
  • LeGarrette Blount has a touch on 57 percent of his snaps, the highest rate for all running backs.
  • Blount's 12 rushing touchdowns are the most through the first nine games of a season since Maurice Jones-Drew in 2009.
  • 75.5 percent of the fantasy points scored by running backs against the 49ers have come from rushing production, the highest in the league.
  • 44.8 percent of the fantasy points scored by running backs against the Patriots has come from rushing production, the lowest in the league.
  • Carlos Hyde has averaged below 4.0 yards per carry in 11 of the 16 games in which he's received double digit carries.
  • The 49ers average 5.5 yards per play (16th) with Colin Kaepernick under center as opposed to 4.5 yards per play (32nd) prior.
  • Kaepernick averages 7.2 rushing points per game, the most in the league.

 

Trust: Tom Brady (extra possessions incoming for arguably the league’s best offense), LeGarrette Blount (he’s scored in every game since Brady has returned as a baseline and is the only back here built to pile on clock killing carries when the time presents itself, which it will), Rob Gronkowski/Martellus Bennett (the 49ers have been hurt the most by big body receivers and those guys are Gronk and Bennett for the Patriots.  Regardless of if Gronk plays or not, Bennett is a top option and he moves near the top of the board if Gronk is definitely out)

 

Bust: Carlos Hyde (he’s been the RB41 and RB58 in the two games with Kaepernick and the majority of fantasy production for backs against the Patriots has come through the air), Dion Lewis/James White (everyone is in play as a flex option against the 49ers, but you’d prefer this to be an either or situation instead of them working Lewis back into reps along with White)

 

Reasonable Return: Julian Edelman (he’s averaged 8.8 targets per game since Brady returned, but has yet to crack the top-24), Colin Kaepernick (↑, ↑, ↓, ↓, ←, →, ←, →, B, A, START), Jeremy Kerley (he's been in the top-60 just once since Kaepernick took over, but has still lead the team targets over that span while New England has been ravaged by slot options on the season)

 

Philadelphia vs. Seattle

 

Eagles Rank @ Seahawks Rank
6.5   Spread -6.5  
19.0   Implied Total 25.5  
64.7 15 Plays/Gm 60.9 28
60.0 3 Opp. Plays/Gm 67.0 28
43.1% 7 Rush% 39.1% 19
56.9% 26 Pass% 61.0% 14
38.3% 12 Opp. Rush % 41.8% 23
61.7% 21 Opp. Pass % 58.2% 10

 

  • The Seahawks haven't rushed for 100-yards as a team in six straight games, their longest drought since 1999.
  • C.J. Prosise's snap share has gone from 25 percent to 42 percent, 55 percent and 77 percent over the past four weeks.
  • Prosise is the first Seattle rookie to have 60 yards both rushing and receiving in a game since Joey Galloway in 1995.
  • Philadelphia ranks 4th in the league in stuff rate on defense as 28.0 percent of the runs they've faced have lost yardage or gained zero yards, but they allow the highest percentage of runs allowed that have gained 10 or more yards (16.4 percent).
  • The Eagles are allowing 24.4 points per game on the road this season as opposed to 9.5 per game at home.
  • Russell Wilson is second in points per drop back over the past two weeks after ranking 28th through eight weeks per Pro Football Focus.
  • Opposing passers are completing 57.5 percent of their passes against the Eagles, the second fewest in the league next to Denver (56.1 percent).
  • Darren Sproles ranks third in percentage of runs of five or more yards (42.6 percent) while Ryan Mathews ranks 6th (38.9 percent) for all running backs with 50 or more carries on the season.

 

Trust: Russell Wilson (he’s gotten back on track as his health has returned and while the Eagles are good in totality versus the pass, they did allow the QB5 and the QB9 over their past two road games)

 

Bust: Carson Wentz (he hasn’t ranked higher than QB23 since Week 5 and the Seahawks have allowed multiple touchdown passes just once), Darren Sproles (even with the snap reduction last week, he’s still been a top-20 scorer in each of the past three weeks, but the Seahawks have not been hurt by standalone receiving backs so far on the season), Ryan Mathews (hands in the air on how the snaps will play out, but I’m not going out of my way to chase last week’s game on a road team with such a low implied outlook), Jordan Matthews (he ran into back to back great matchups and turned in serviceable games, but still has just one week in the top-30 over his past six games), Thomas Rawls (by now, you already know how I feel about immediately expecting high-end results from players off of long injuries, and in this personal case, I’m not confident that Seattle is going to run the ball well with anyone)

 

Reasonable Return: C.J. Prosise (he really fits this offense the best at this point since their strength is utilizing their speed and versatility, but we don’t know what type of money touches near the goal line he’s going to see going forward, keeping him in the RB2/flex area), Doug Baldwin (last week was a great reminder of the ceiling that Baldwin still possesses, but I’m cautious on a rollover as Philadelphia has limited slot options all season), Jimmy Graham (the Eagles have only allowed more than four receptions to one tight end with a high of 55 yards, but they really haven’t been challenged at the position)

 

Green Bay vs. Washington

 

Packers Rank @ Washington Rank
2.5   Spread -2.5  
24.0   Implied Total 26.5  
66.3 9 Plays/Gm 65.9 11
59.3 2 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.9 15
33.8% 31 Rush% 38.1% 21
66.2% 2 Pass% 61.9% 12
40.1% 18 Opp. Rush % 39.1% 13
59.9% 15 Opp. Pass % 60.9% 20

 

  • The Packers have allowed 30 or more points in three straight games for the first time since 2006.
  • Washington is averaging 407.8 yards per game on offense, 4th in the league.
  • Green Bay is allowing .538 passing points per attempt, 30th in the league.
  • The Packers are allowing 26.8 passing yards per drive, the 7th most in the league.
  • Kirk Cousins is averaging 29.5 passing yards per drive, 4th among all quarterbacks with 50 or more possessions on the season.
  • Cousins has completed just 29.2 percent (7-24) of his passes from inside of the 10-yard line, the lowest rate for all passers (min. 10 attempts).
  • 90 percent of Rob Kelley's runs have gained positive yardage, the highest rate for all backs with 50 or more carries on the season.
  • 84.7 percent of Kelley's rushing yardage has come on first down, the highest rate in the league.
  • James Starks played 71 percent of the snaps in his return last week, handling 22.2 percent of the team touches.
  • James Starks played 71 percent of the snaps in his return last week, handling 22.2 percent of the team touches.
  • Ty Montgomery played just 28 percent of the snaps in Week 10, his lowest total since Week 5.
  • Aaron Rodgers leads the league in pass attempts from inside of the 10-yard line (33) and tied for the league lead with 16 touchdown passes from that area of the field.
  • Jordy Nelson has six receiving touchdowns from inside of the 10-yard line, the most in the league.
  • Over the past four weeks, Davante Adams is tied for the league lead in targets (47), is second in receptions (35), second in receiving yards (403) and tied for second in touchdown receptions (3).

 

Trust: Kirk Cousins (he’d be having a lights out season if he didn’t stumble in the red zone to the degree he has, but this is another great spot for him to hoard up yardage with multiple scoring chances), Aaron Rodgers (he’s averaging 47 pass attempts per game over the past four weeks and has been a top-4 scorer in all of those games), Randall Cobb (he was the odd man out last week, but he was on fire before his injury and draws the best individual matchup of the group as slot receivers have damaged Washington), Jordan Reed (Green Bay has now struggled versus Julius Thomas, Eric Ebron and Delanie Walker, three versatile, athletic tight ends in the ilk of Reed)

 

Bust: Ty Montgomery (his usage the past two weeks makes him unusable at this point), Chris Thompson (in the flex floor category if you need one, but the Packers are allowing the 9th fewest receiving points to backfields and have allowed more than four receptions to just two backs)

 

Reasonable Return: Jordy Nelson (he’ll surely draw Josh Norman the most often, but Nelson has 40 targets over the past three weeks and is always in play for his touchdown appeal), Davante Adams (he has 14 or more points in four straight and by proxy of Nelson having a tougher matchup could see more boundary looks between the two), James Starks (he played 55 snaps last week and Washington will give up yards on the ground, but with the injuries to the Green Bay offensive line, this team may never get back on track on the ground, leaving Starks to do his work as a receiver), Jamison Crowder (he’s been a top-30 scorer in four straight games and has scored in three of his past four), Pierre Garcon (he’s been the WR33 and the WR31 the past two weeks, garnering 17 targets and the matchup this week is far more in his favor than those two weeks), Rob Kelley (he’s not catching any passes, which makes his floor scary in a below average rushing matchup, but has had 20 plus attempts in each of the past two and the passing game should create scoring opportunities)

 

Houston vs. Oakland (in Mexico City)

 

Texans Rank @ Raiders Rank
5.5   Spread -5.5  
20.3   Implied Total 25.8  
65.8 12 Plays/Gm 67.0 6
62.2 7 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.1 6
42.4% 8 Rush% 39.5% 18
57.6% 25 Pass% 60.5% 15
44.6% 29 Opp. Rush % 39.4% 15
55.4% 4 Opp. Pass % 60.6% 18

 

  • Houston averages 4.7 yards per play, fewest in the league.
  • The Texans have scored a touchdown on 12.6 percent of their possessions, the lowest rate in the league.
  • Brock Osweiler averages 17.7 passing yards per drive, the fewest of all full-season starting quarterbacks.
  • 60.7 percent of the offensive yards gained by Houston have been through the air, the second lowest rate in the league.
  • DeAndre Hopkins has been held under 75 receiving yards in eight of nine games this season. He had five games with fewer than 75 yards all of 2015.
  • 86.9 percent of the runs against Oakland have gained positive yardage, the highest rate in the league. 83.6 percent of the runs against the Texans have gained positive yardage, the third highest.
  • Latavius Murray has scored a touchdown once every 11.1 rushing attempts, the highest rate for all backs with 50 or more carries on the season.
  • Oakland has a league best sack rate allowed on offense (3.0 percent), but ranks 30th in sack rate as a defense (3.8 percent).
  • The Texans allow just .96 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks per drive, the third fewest in the league.
  • Oakland wide receivers average 198.9 receiving yards per game, 5th in the league. The Texans allow 138.6 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers, the third fewest in the league.

 

Trust: Latavius Murray (he has gone over 20 touches in the two games that Oakland has controlled since returning and has scored in five of seven games on the season)

 

Bust: Derek Carr (I’m not terrified of Houston’s numbers versus quarterbacks as they haven’t faced a lot of strong options, but nearly all of Carr’s best fantasy outputs this season have come in back and forth shootouts, something that is in the lower range of outcomes here), DeAndre Hopkins (his ceiling is non-existent at this point and Oakland hasn’t allowed a top-20 receiver since Week 5 despite facing the Denver duo, Mike Evans and Allen Robinson over that span), Brock Osweiler (if you don’t have anything nice to say…)

 

Reasonable Return: Amari Cooper (the Oakland receiver who has typically done the best is the one with the better matchup and Cooper has that this week against Jonathan Joseph), Michael Crabtree (he gets the tougher of the individual draws, but is still the primary option in the red zone), Lamar Miller (the overall results haven’t been there, but Miller is quietly averaging 5.2 yards per carry over his past four games as opposed to 3.7 prior and the Raiders haven't exactly been suffocating versus the run), C.J. Fiedorowicz (his line last week was hurt by the Texans taking the air out of the ball and his backups scoring the touchdowns, but he still had 18.5 percent of the team looks and the volume should rise this week)

Context Key:

 

Trust = Set him in your lineups this week

Bust = Player to underperform season average

Reasonable Return = On par with seasonal average


**All Vegas Lines are taken from BetUs Tuesday Evenings

 

Rich Hribar
Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.