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The Worksheet

The NFL Week 14 Worksheet

by Rich Hribar
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

For most fantasy leagues, Week 14 means that this is the first week of the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully you made the dance and if you did, you earned a bye if your league provides. If by some poor fortune you’ve already been eliminated from your postseason, then you can still dabble into daily fantasy games to keep your fantasy fix satiated.

 

As for the token disclaimer, the goal of this article is to provide a top-down, statistical snapshot for each game each week, running down weekly point spreads, team totals, play calling splits, and statistical bullet points on the players and teams involved. Although we’re focusing strictly on PPR league scoring here as a baseline, there’s more than enough to spread around across formats and daily leagues. The reason we’re operating under a PPR umbrella is it allows us to cover a larger portion of the players involved in action weekly.

 

Lastly, as the author, it’s imperative that I note that this is NOT a start/sit column, rather an expectations column. The labels for each subset of players for each game are simply a vehicle for those expectations and have a different context for each player that you can find at the end of the column. I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points here in conjunction with the Start/Sit column posted weekly by Nick Mensio, Pat Daugherty’s rankings in the Goal Line Stand, Evan Silva’s Matchup’s column, Ray Summerlin's Waiver Wired and most importantly, your own information and thought process. Remember, you control your own team. With that out of the way, let’s hit all the Week 14 games with a PPR light…

 

Saints @ Falcons

 

New Orleans Rank @ Atlanta Rank
-1.5   Spread 1.5  
27.5   Implied Total 26.0  
29.4 3 Points/Gm 22.8 14
20.2 12 Points All./Gm 20.3 13
63.8 15 Plays/Gm 59.9 29
60.6 7 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.9 19
44.9% 10 Rush% 43.4% 14
55.1% 23 Pass% 56.6% 19
40.3% 8 Opp. Rush % 40.9% 10
59.7% 25 Opp. Pass % 59.1% 23

 

  • Alvin Kamara has scored a touchdown in six straight games, matching a franchise record for the Saints reached by four other players.
  • 51.2 percent (44-of-86) of Kamara's carries have gone for five or more yards, the only back with 50 or more carries on the season to have half of his runs gain that many yards. 26.7 percent of have gained 10 or more yards, the only back over 17 percent.
  • The Falcons rank 29th in the league in rate of runs allowed that go for five or more yards (35.9 percent) and 20th in rate of runs to go for 10 or more yards (11.5 percent).
  • Atlanta is allowing 9.9 yards per completion, the lowest rate in the league.
  • 9.9 percent of the completions allowed by the Falcons have gone for 20 or more yards, the second-lowest rate in the league.
  • 18.5 percent of Drew Brees' completions have gained 20 or more yards, the second-highest rate in the league for active quarterbacks after Jared Goff (20 percent).
  • 17.9 percent of the completions allowed by the Saints have gone for 20 or more yards, 30th in the league.
  • Devonta Freeman hasn't reached 100 yards from scrimmage in each of his past six games, his longest drought in a season since his rookie year.
  • Brees has thrown one or zero touchdown passes in six games this season, matching the most he's ever had in a season with the Saints.

 

Trust: Alvin Kamara (he's been an RB1 in seven straight weeks, posted 100 yards from scrimmage in five straight games and now Ingram is clearly less than 100 percent entering the game)

 

Bust: Ted Ginn (he hasn’t strictly been used as a vertical option this season, but his main attribute is impacted here against a team that is limiting splash plays out of the passing game), Matt Ryan (he’ll get a boost if Lattimore is inactive again since the Saints have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in three straight games after allowing just one over their previous seven games, but Ryan has thrown for 215 yards or fewer in three of his past four games and just hasn’t shown a ceiling on the season to date with a high finish in a week as QB10), Austin Hooper (you need a touchdown to carry him as he’s been a TE1 in just two of his past seven games)

 

Reasonable Return: Mark Ingram (his toe injury is potentially serious since he didn't put in any practice time, so you have to at least hedge on a ceiling performance and touch count, but if he plays, he still holds touchdown upside on limited opportunity as running backs have scored 45 percent of the touchdowns against Atlanta, the fifth highest rate in the league), Drew Brees (at this point, we can’t bank on positive touchdown regression setting in, but his floor is stable, while Atlanta has allowed a QB1 in five of their past seven games), Michael Thomas (like Brees, he’s had a high floor with few ceiling moments and the Falcons have limited opposing lead receivers, allowing just four WR1 scoring weeks to lead wideouts on the season and none since Week 6), Julio Jones (he's coming off his lowest scoring week in a full game this season which followed his highest and he’ll run into another tough draw against a defense that has allowed just two lead receivers to have WR1 weeks when Marshon Lattimore has been active, but with Lattimore’s health still unlikely to be 100 percent, we don’t have to run completely away), Devonta Freeman (he ran well in his return a week ago and the Saints have allowed 15 or more points to an opposing back in three straight games, but touches are still a looming concern for his ceiling as he’s had 15 or fewer touches in each of his past five games), Tevin Coleman (if he can roll over his six targets from a week ago that will have him back on the radar as an upside flex option as New Orleans is 24th in receiving points allowed to backfields per game), Mohamed Sanu (there’s low yardage upside here, but Sanu has had a usable floor, finishing as a WR3 in eight of his 10 full games)

 

Editor's Note: Build around these 5 players for your Week 14 lineups. Find out who here!

 

Packers @ Browns

 

Green Bay Rank @ Cleveland Rank
-3   Spread 3  
21.8   Implied Total 18.8  
21.5 20 Points/Gm 14.7 32
23.4 17 Points All./Gm 25.7 26
60.8 26 Plays/Gm 64.4 12
64.3 24 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.4 14
39.6% 23 Rush% 37.7% 27
60.4% 10 Pass% 62.4% 6
44.4% 24 Opp. Rush % 46.0% 31
55.6% 9 Opp. Pass % 54.0% 2

 

  • Josh Gordon played 76 percent of the snaps in his return and received 34.4 percent of the team targets, the third-highest rate for all wide receivers in Week 13.
  • Gordon was targeted on 37.9 percent of his routes, the highest rate of any receiver in Week 13.
  • DeShone Kizer has completed 9-of-32 of his passes (28.1 percent) in the red zone (lowest rate in the league) with league high five interceptions in the red zone.
  • Kizer leads the Browns with eight rushing attempts from inside of the 5-yard line and is tied with Todd Gurley for the second in the league in rushing touchdowns (five) from that area of the field.
  • Kizer averages 5.5 rushing points per game, second among active quarterbacks, while Hundley averages 3.7 (eighth) per game.
  • Out of the 40 passers with 100 or more attempts on the season, Kizer ranks 40th in passing points per attempt (21.9) while Brett Hundley ranks 39th (.266).
  • Green Bay is allowing .457 passing points per attempt (22nd) while Cleveland is allowing .506 (31st).
  • Only Le'Veon Bell has more touches (107) over the past four weeks than Jamaal Williams (91).
  • Williams leads the league with 30 carries of five or more yards over that span.

 

Trust: Jamaal Williams (I knocked him down in the middle of the week last week in fear of a timeshare with Aaron Jones, but Williams had every touch except for one and delivered with them. He’s now had 95, 135 and 123 yards from scrimmage over his past three games while Cleveland has allowed 119 yards rushing per game to opposing backfields over the past three weeks), Josh Gordon (it was just a one game sample, so we need to see his extremely high volume become sticky, but if his usage spills into this week against a Packers defense that is 31st in points allowed per target to opposing wideouts and that has allowed 13 top-20 wide receivers on the year, he should turn those opportunities into much more than 85 yards)

 

Bust: David Njoku (the Browns have finally started to get him involved, but you still need him to hit for a score against a team that has allowed just three touchdowns to opposing tight ends on the season), Jordy Nelson (the good news is that he led the team in targets last week, the bad news is that he had his sixth straight game with 35 or fewer yards), Brett Hundley (he offers rushing ability and Cleveland has allowed five top-12 scoring weeks to quarterbacks outside of the top-12 this season, but he showed last week that we can’t entrust him to be elevated solely by matchups),  Corey Coleman (the matchup is still favorable to make an intriguing DFS tournament pivot off of Gordon, but we’ve now seen that he has a zero-point floor in his range of outcomes and he dropped all the way down to four targets with the return of Gordon while asking Kizer to support multiple fantasy assets at the same position is a lot to ask)

 

Reasonable Return:  Isaiah Crowell (he’s had at least 95 yards from scrimmage in three of his past five games and is contingent on game script to hold RB2 value, but there’s arguably no better game to keep him involved on his remaining schedule), DeShone Kizer (he has been a QB1 in three of his past five games despite doing next to nothing through air. The Packers defense can elevate his passing floor while his rushing upside is always on the table), Duke Johnson (he posted a true dud with 12 total yards last week, but still holds flex appeal against a defense that is 26th in receptions allowed per game to opposing backs), Davante Adams (he still had 27 percent of the team targets last week, but it was reminder that he still holds a large portion of a smaller pie now as the Packers have had 26 or fewer targets available in four of their six games with Hundley under center)

 

Editor’s Note: FanDuel is hosting the Rotoworld Beat the Writers Series, where you can play against five Rotoworld football writers for your chance at cash prizes and free entry into their Sunday Million. Put your knowledge to the test!

 

Lions @ Buccaneers

 

Detroit Rank @ Tampa Bay Rank
-2   Spread 2  
23.5   Implied Total 21.5  
26.2 5 Points/Gm 20.2 22
25.7 27 Points All./Gm 24.0 21
62.3 22 Plays/Gm 64.3 14
63.7 17 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.8 18
37.4% 29 Rush% 37.7% 26
62.6% 4 Pass% 62.3% 7
42.9% 16 Opp. Rush % 43.1% 18
57.1% 17 Opp. Pass % 56.9% 15

 

  • Detroit has allowed a rushing touchdown in seven straight games, the longest streak in the league.
  • 55.9 percent of all the red zone plays versus the Lions have come from inside of the 10-yard line, the highest rate in the league.
  • The Lions have faced a league-high 39 rushing attempts from inside of the 10-yard line this season and a league-high 22 from inside of the 5-yard line.
  • With Peyton Barber's 143 yards from scrimmage last week, Tampa Bay has now had six games over the past two years in which a RB has posted 100 yards from scrimmage. Doug Martin has one of those games.
  • Barber handled 48.2 percent of the team touches, the highest rate a Tampa Bay running back has had in a game this season.
  • Over the past eight weeks, Marvin Jones is the WR5 in overall scoring with seven games of double-digit scoring over that span, tied for second in the league.
  • Over that span, Jones is averaging 17.3 yards per reception, the second highest rate for all players with 30 or more receptions over that time.

 

Trust: Matthew Stafford (keep a close watch on the status of his throwing hand, but if he’s good to go, then this is a strong spot as Stafford has shown over the past three years to be a matchup driven quarterback and Tampa Bay is 31st in passing yards allowed per game), Marvin Jones (he has the highest touchdown upside on Detroit and has shown to have a steady floor with 85 or more yards in six of his past seven games), Jameis Winston (as up and down as his real life performance has been, he's been a fantasy QB1 in four of his past five full games played while Detroit has allowed QB13 or higher weeks to Joe Flacco, Case Keenum, DeShone Kizer and Brett Hundley in four of their past five games with the added bonus of three rushing scores to that group)

 

Bust:  Theo Riddick (he’ll be back on the flex map as a floor play if Abdullah is inactive again, but the Buccaneers are eighth in receiving points allowed to opposing backfields), Doug Martin (he hasn't been an RB2 since Week 6 and with Barber playing well, may never reclaim the full role he had prior), Peyton Barber  (with Martin returning, his touches are a question mark, but Barber is unlikely to be shelved completely while the Lions are just handing out rushing touchdowns to backs on the year if you need to chase), Tion Green (with Ameer Abdullah expected to be benched, Green will take over his role, but is still only a floor flex option as Detroit systematically struggles to run the ball and he won't get much work in the passing game with Riddick having a grasp on that role)

 

Reasonable Return: Golden Tate (he has posted a pedestrian 7.2 yards per catch over his past three games, but his opportunity has rebounded with 18 targets over the past two weeks while Tampa Bay has allowed seven sets of WR tandems to post top-30 weeks), Mike Evans (he’s been a WR3 or lower four of his past five games and the Lions have yet to allow a top-12 game to an opposing WR1 on the season, leaving Evans unlikely as a ceiling target), DeSean Jackson (he’ll have the benefit of Evans drawing Darius Slay away from him, but has just one touchdown from Winston on the season), Cameron Brate (Winston came back and so did his touchdown upside while the Lions have allowed an opposing tight end to score in three straight games), Kenny Golladay (if you’re thin at the position or want to make a swing from your heels as a stacking partner in DFS, Golladay has run 26 and 29 routes the past two weeks and is tied for the league lead with three 40-yard receptions since returning in Week 10)

 

Raiders @ Chiefs

 

Oakland Rank @ Kansas City Rank
4   Spread -4  
21.8   Implied Total 25.8  
20.8 21 Points/Gm 25.2 6
23.2 16 Points All./Gm 22.8 15
60.0 28 Plays/Gm 59.3 30
61.2 8 Opp. Plays/Gm 67.5 31
38.9% 25 Rush% 39.2% 24
61.1% 8 Pass% 60.8% 9
43.3% 19 Opp. Rush % 45.1% 28
56.7% 14 Opp. Pass % 54.9% 5

 

  • Kansas City is the only team in the league with more touchdowns scored from outside of the red zone (15) than inside (14). League average is 71.3 percent of offensive touchdowns scored from inside of the red zone.
  • Travis Kelce leads all tight ends with 18 receptions on throws 15 yards or further downfield and ranks fourth in the entire league.
  • The Chiefs averaged 1.6 offensive touchdowns per game at home (28th) as opposed to 3.0 per game on the road (T-1).
  • Over his past seven games, Kareem Hunt has 24 runs of five or more yards (25 percent) and seven runs of 10 or more yards (7.3 percent) on 96 carries.
  • Over his first five games, Hunt had 36 runs of five or more yards (37.1 percent) and 18 runs of 10 or more yards (18.6 percent) on 97 rushing attempts.
  • The Chiefs run the ball 38.9 percent of the time when the game is within one possession in either direction, 29th in the league.
  • The Raiders allow 1.59 passing points per drive, the most in the league.
  • The Chiefs are allowing just 20.1 completions per game (seventh), but allow 13.1 yards per completion (31st).
  • Kansas City has allowed seven 100-yard wide receivers on the season, the most in the league.

 

Trust: Travis Kelce (the league’s best deep threat at his position against a defense that has allowed seven TE1 weeks on the season, including to Kelce himself in Week 7), Alex Smith (often these divisional rematches end up tighter than anticipated and the Chiefs haven’t played as well at home so far, but everything sets up for Smith to pop in a similar fashion as he did when these teams first met. Oakland managed to limit both Geno Smith and Paxton Lynch the past two weeks, but previously had allowed five straight QB1 weeks prior and are still 30th on the year in passing points allowed per game), Tyreek Hill (he’s averaging just 38.2 receiving yards per game at home on the season, but Hill has been stable through all of the Chiefs' down moments the past month, scoring 12 or more points in four straight games while he’s just a mismatch for the longer Oakland corners, catching 12 passes for 191 yards and two touchdowns in the past two times these teams have played)

 

Bust: Jared Cook (he had 6-107 when these teams last met, but just 13.4 percent of the fantasy points scored against the Chiefs have been posted by tight ends, which is the second lowest rate in the league. Outside of that, Cook has had an incredible layout the past few weeks in terms of matchup and opportunity with Oakland missing key pass catchers and he’s totaled four catches for 46 yards over his past three games), Cordarrelle Patterson (he offers the most upside per touch out of the Oakland backup wideouts, but played the fewest snaps of the group last week and had just four targets)

 

Reasonable Return: Kareem Hunt (he hasn’t even been an RB2 in four of his past five games and has just 12 touches in each of the past two games, but Oakland is still 21st in yards from scrimmage allowed to running backs and the Chiefs are a home favorite with a moderately high team total, so we can’t just leave him for dead), Derek Carr (he’s been a QB1 in just one of his past nine games and has been the QB19, QB22 and QB29 in his career at Arrowhead, so that’s keeping us from going all in, but the Chiefs have allowed some high-ceiling games on the year, surrendering five top-3 scoring performances including one to Carr himself), Michael Crabtree (he’s been lackluster since his mid-season touchdown streak, catching just 17 passes for 198 yards over his past four games and has never topped 45 yards over five games against the Chiefs with the Raiders, but with Cooper looking doubtful and Marcus Peters suspended, he should be the player the passing game runs through against a defense we have targeted with receiver play), Johnny Holton/Seth Roberts (both are deeper digs with Crabtree returning, but with Cooper still expected to be out and Cook not being involved, both will have opportunities. Holton played the most snaps at receiver last week and will be the starting LWR while having the upside for a big play against a defense giving up tons of them and Roberts plays nearly exclusively inside, an area that we have targeted versus the Chiefs weekly),  Marshawn Lynch (being a road underdog is the only blemish here as Oakland hasn't had success in Arrowhead under Carr, but he’s been a top-10 back in three of his past four games and his yards from scrimmage have risen in four straight weeks while the Chiefs are 25th in rushing points allowed per attempt)

 

Vikings @ Panthers

 

Minnesota Rank @ Carolina Rank
-3   Spread 3  
22.0   Implied Total 19.0  
23.8 11 Points/Gm 22.4 16
17.0 2 Points All./Gm 19.8 10
66.2 7 Plays/Gm 64.5 11
60.3 6 Opp. Plays/Gm 57.2 1
47.4% 2 Rush% 46.6% 5
52.6% 31 Pass% 53.4% 28
37.2% 2 Opp. Rush % 38.3% 5
62.9% 31 Opp. Pass % 61.7% 28

 

  • Minnesota is allowing 307 yards from scrimmage per game, tied with Jacksonville for the fewest in the league.
  • The Vikings have allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw six touchdowns over their past nine games, the fewest in the league.
  • Cam Newton has finished as the QB18 and the QB19 in two games versus the Vikings since Mike Zimmer was the head coach, throwing one touchdown to four interceptions combined in those games.
  • Newton has 425 rushing yards over his past seven games (60.7 per game), which is 15th in the entire league. His career high for rushing yards per game is 46.3 back in 2012.
  • Adam Thielen's slot route rate over his previous five games per Pro Football Focus has gone 51.2 percent, 48.1 percent, 45.9 percent, 43.8 percent and 36.7 percent.
  • Since returning from injury in Week 8, Stefon Diggs has been the WR40, totaling 19 receptions for 235 yards and one touchdown over those five games.
  • Over that span, Diggs has received 17.1 percent of the team targets after receiving 21.8 percent over his first five games of the season.

 

Trust: Adam Thielen (he’s starting to lose some of the safety valve opportunities as he’s playing fewer slot snaps weekly, but the Panthers have gotten progressively leaky to lead wideouts, allowing 17 or more points to the opposing WR1 in four straight games)

 

Bust: Cam Newton (he’s at home and his rushing ability is enough to prevent him from bottoming out, but the passing expectations here are even lower than usual with the Vikings allowing the sixth fewest passing points per game and his one reliable receiver likely to be locked up), Devin Funchess (he’s had double-digit points and 27.8 percent of the Carolina targets since they dealt Kelvin Benjamin, but Minnesota has melted WR1s with Xavier Rhodes and his length is a problem for a player that wins without creating space), Jonathan Stewart (even with a touchdown in each of the past two games, he’s been an RB3 each week while Minnesota is second in yardage allowed on the ground to backfields), Stefon Diggs (he still has upside to still use as a boom or bust third receiver or flex, but a much lower floor as he’s been a WR2 or better in just one of his past six games while a WR4 or lower in four of those games), Kyle Rudolph (he’s third in receptions for all tight ends over his past eight games, but Carolina is allowing a league-low 3.2 receptions per game to tight ends and just two tight ends to clear 40 yards receiving in a game this season), Latavius Murray (he is second in the league in rushing attempts from inside of the 5-yard line since Dalvin Cook was lost for the year and he’s going to need to find the end zone this week on the road against a defense that is fifth in rushing yards allowed per game to backfields), Case Keenum (this is the week where I believe we see a slight step back as his surrounding pieces have their toughest individual matchups of the past five weeks and four of the past six quarterbacks to face Carolina have finished in the back half of scoring), Greg Olsen (the position is paper thin, so I understand wanting to swing, but he wasn't able to completely get through his first game back and was shut down for a week due to playing turf, but none of those inspire confidence that he'll play an entire game, let alone effectively. With Funchess tied, targets could find him by default, but he's one of the riskier propositions on the board)

 

Reasonable Return: Christian McCaffrey (he’s been an RB2 or higher in eight straight games and with Funchess likely to have a tough time on the boundary, he will have to be a large part of the game plan), Jerick McKinnon (he’s averaging 17.4 touches per game over his past eight and has the safer floor of the Minnesota backs due to his pass catching ability against a team that is stingy to opposing backfields)

 

49ers @ Texans

 

San Francisco Rank @ Houston Rank
3   Spread -3  
19.8   Implied Total 22.8  
16.8 29 Points/Gm 24.7 8
24.8 25 Points All./Gm 25.8 28
66.2 6 Plays/Gm 66.8 4
66.4 29 Opp. Plays/Gm 59.9 3
36.5% 32 Rush% 43.5% 13
63.5% 1 Pass% 56.5% 20
48.4% 32 Opp. Rush % 42.7% 15
51.6% 1 Opp. Pass % 57.3% 18

 

  • The 49ers have had a league high four games without a touchdown, two more than the next closest team in the league and their most in a season since 2005.
  • 49ers target shares in their first game with Jimmy Garoppolo were as follows: Marquise Goodwin (21.6 percent), Trent Taylor and Louis Murphy (16.2 percent), Carlos Hyde (13.5 percent) and Garrett Celek (10.8 percent).
  • Goodwin's 21.6 percent target share was the highest he's had in a game since Pierre Garcon was lost for the season.
  • Houston is allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 30th in the league.
  • The Texans have scored a touchdown on 8-of-60 possessions (13.3 percent) since Tom Savage took back over at quarterback, 29th in the league.
  • DeAndre Hopkins has 32.5 percent of the team targets from Savage, catching 33-of-68 targets (48.5 percent) with two touchdowns.
  • Hopkins had 34.9 percent of the targets from Deshaun Watson, catching 44-of-71 targets (62 percent) with seven touchdowns.

 

Trust: DeAndre Hopkins (his efficiency and scoring upside has dropped with Savage under center, but he’s still had 16 or more points in all five of those starts)

 

Bust: Tom Savage (he threw for a career-high 365 yards last week, but 137 of those came in the fourth quarter chasing scores, something that he may not need to do here), Carlos Hyde (there was a fear that his targets would drop off with the quarterback change and that loss of receiving work lowered his floor while Houston is fourth in the league in yards from scrimmage allowed to opposing backfields)

 

Reasonable Return: Lamar Miller (the 49ers have been better against the run the past three weeks, allowing 3.7 yards per carry to backs, but Miller has held a steady floor, finishing lower than an RB2 just twice all season despite hitting 100 yards from scrimmage just once), Stephen Anderson (it was only a one game sample, but with C.J. Fiedorowicz out, he played a lot of receiver and tallied 12 targets with two receptions of 20 plus yards with a score while San Francisco has allowed six touchdowns to tight ends over their past six games), Jimmy Garoppolo (as good as he was in his first start, he was still the QB24 for fantasy purposes because producing touchdowns is still going to be a hurdle for him, which will keep him as more of an option in 2QB leagues than a full on streaming choice in solo leagues, but he’s a mid-QB2 against a Houston team that has allowed 18 or more points in six of their past eight games), Marquise Goodwin (he has capable quarterback play to do more than just hit a home run and as he showed that last week without leaning on a splash play for his floor and has now been a WR3 or better in five of his past six games), Trent Taylor (he works the middle of the field, an area that Garoppolo has favored. Last year with New England, 49.2 percent of Garoppolo’s passes were over the middle of the field and so far, 51.3 percent of his passes with San Francisco have been to that portion of the field), Andre Ellington (he joins a deep pocket of floor flex plays against a defense that is 31st in receiving points per game allowed to backfields)

 

Colts @ Bills


Indianapolis Rank @ Buffalo Rank
3   Spread -3  
18.0   Implied Total 21.0  
17.1 28 Points/Gm 18.9 23
27.5 32 Points All./Gm 23.6 19
62.5 21 Plays/Gm 62.6 19
63.4 15 Opp. Plays/Gm 65.8 28
43.1% 15 Rush% 46.6% 6
56.9% 18 Pass% 53.4% 27
43.6% 21 Opp. Rush % 43.0% 17
56.4% 12 Opp. Pass % 57.0% 16

 

  • The Colts are allowing 32.7 points per game on the road, the most in the league.
  • Zay Jones' 36.8 percent catch rate would be the lowest rate for a player with 60 or more targets in a season since Devin Aromashodu (31 percent) in 2011.
  • The Colts have allowed a league-leading six QB1 scoring weeks to quarterbacks that aren't top-12 scoring quarterbacks on the season.
  • After receiving 23.4 percent of the team targets through seven games, LeSean McCoy has had 9.4 percent of the team targets over his past five games.
  • 60 percent (18-of-30) of the touchdowns allowed by the Bills defensively have been rushing, the highest rate in the league.
  • Opposing backfields have rushed 144 times for 761 yards (5.3 YPC) with 10 touchdowns against the Bills over their past five games.
  • The Bills are allowing a 3.6 percent touchdown rate to opposing passers, the lowest rate in the league.
  • Jacoby Brissett has a 2.8 percent touchdown rate, 33rd out of 40 passers with 100 or more pass attempts on the season.

 

Trust: LeSean McCoy (despite his dip in involvement in the passing game, he should be the focal point of the offense with Peterman supposed to draw the start against a Colts defense that is 24th in yards from scrimmage allowed to opposing backfields)

 

Bust: Jacoby Brissett (he’s taken a step back in two games since the bye while his touchdowns passes have been limited and Buffalo isn’t surrendering them), Charles Clay (he has not been involved since returning from injury, receiving just 10.7 percent of the team targets after seeing 20.6 percent prior), Zay Jones (with Benjamin expected to be back, there’s no longer any need to keep chasing his typically empty targets), Nathan Peterman (at leasy he has nowhere to go but up from his first career start),  T.Y. Hilton (you're just fishing for a splash play at this stage as he’s reached 20 percent of the team targets in just two of his past seven games and has hit 60 yards in a game just three times)

 

Reasonable Return:  Frank Gore (while Gore no longer has the ceiling ability to take advantage of a great matchup, he’s still on the table as a flex option as he’s averaged 18 touches for 75.8 yards from scrimmage per game over his past five games), Jack Doyle (he’s still the most reliable passing game option for the Colts while the Bills are 29th in receptions allowed per game to opposing tight ends), Kelvin Benjamin (there’s a low floor here coming off injury and Peterman likely starting, but the Colts lost another cornerback last weekend while allowing 16-213-2 to the Jacksonville wide receivers, leaving the cupboard completely bare this weekend)

 

Bears @ Bengals


Chicago Rank @ Cincinnati Rank
7   Spread -7  
15.5   Implied Total 22.5  
15.9 30 Points/Gm 18.2 25
22.2 14 Points All./Gm 19.8 11
57.2 31 Plays/Gm 55.8 32
64.1 21 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.8 32
47.0% 4 Rush% 41.8% 18
53.0% 29 Pass% 58.2% 15
44.6% 25 Opp. Rush % 44.7% 26
55.4% 8 Opp. Pass % 55.3% 7

 

  • Cincinnati is averaging 297.3 yards from scrimmage per game (31st) while Chicago is averaging 292.9 (32nd).
  • Andy Dalton has thrown multiple touchdowns in eight of 10 games since Bill Lazor took over as offensive coordinator. Only Tom Brady (nine) has more multiple touchdown passing games over that span.
  • The Bears have allowed 17.5 points per game to the past five WR1s they've faced with a low of 14.7 points, allowing those lead receivers to catch 29-of-40 targets for 403 yards and three touchdowns over that span.               
  • The Bears ran 36 offensive plays last week, their fewest in a game since 1967 (35).
  • Since the Bears Week 9 bye, Jordan Howard has averaged 13.5 touches per game with a high of just 15 over those four games played.
  • Chicago averages a league-low 5.2 red zone plays per game.
  • Mitchell Trubisky averages 14.1 passing yards per possession, ahead of only Cody Kessler (14.0) and Matt Cassel (7.7) on the season.

 

Trust: A.J. Green (he’s coming off a season-high 16 targets and the Bears have just been demolished by lead wideouts over the past five weeks)

 

Bust: Mitchell Trubisky (he’s yet to have a QB1 week and has had single-digit points in six of his eight starts), Jordan Howard (since the Bears bye, Howard has been the RB47 or lower in three of four games with fewer than 60 yards in three of those games when three of those games were at home with the Bears favored in two of them), Tyler Kroft (you’re only chasing a touchdown here as he’s had just eight catches for 60 yards over his past four games and two or fewer catches in four of his past five games), Dontrelle Inman (he’s been a WR3 or better in three of his past four games, but still has totaled just 15 receptions for 216 yards over that span while the Bengals rank sixth in receptions allowed per game to opposing receivers)

 

Reasonable Return: Giovani Bernard (with Joe Mixon’s status in doubt and no experience behind Bernard on the depth chart, Bernard should have a workhorse role this weekend after having 96 total yards on 15 touches in relief a week ago), Andy Dalton (he’s been a QB1 in three straight games on the back of throwing multiple touchdowns weekly, but the Bears have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in just three games this season)

 

Cowboys @ Giants

 

Dallas Rank @ NY Giants Rank
-4.5   Spread 4.5  
23.0   Implied Total 18.5  
23.8 10 Points/Gm 15.8 31
23.7 20 Points All./Gm 24.2 23
62.8 18 Plays/Gm 61.6 24
62.9 13 Opp. Plays/Gm 67.1 30
47.3% 3 Rush% 37.6% 28
52.7% 30 Pass% 62.4% 5
40.1% 7 Opp. Rush % 45.1% 29
59.9% 26 Opp. Pass % 54.9% 4

 

  • The Giants rank 28th in passing points allowed per drive (1.43) while Dallas ranks 31st (1.58).
  • The Giants are allowing 400.8 yards from scrimmage per game, the most in the league.
  • Alfred Morris had a touch on 75 percent of his snaps in Week 13, the fourth-highest rate in a game for a back this season.
  • The Giants have allowed over 100-yards rushing as a team in all but one game season, tied with the Chiefs for the most in the league.
  • Jason Witten has been a top-7 scoring tight end in eight of his past 11 games versus the Giants.
  • Dallas is allowing 23.5 completions per game, 31st in the league.
  • Evan Engram's 51 receptions and 569 receiving yards each rank fifth all-time for a tight end over his first 12 career games.

 

Trust: Alfred Morris (he’s tethered to game script to reach his ceiling, but that should be in his favor here while the Giants have been one of the most consistently giving teams on the ground this season)

 

Bust: Rod Smith (he only had one usable game over his past four and that came in extremely negative game script, something that is unlikely here), Orleans Darkwa (he’s rushed 25 times for 62 yards the past two weeks while just five running backs have reached 15 carries in a game versus Dallas this season), Eli Manning (Dallas has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in five straight games, but there are still yardage concerns here as Manning has thrown for 220 yards or fewer in five of his past six games)

 

Reasonable Return: Dak Prescott (he showed he could still have a usable floor last weekend in a good matchup, but still didn't do enough to suggest that there's still a large ceiling here, so he is a leap of faith to trust as a QB1), Dez Bryant (he has typically struggled versus the Giants recently, but that was while locking up with Janoris Jenkins, who is out for the remainder of the season. Like Prescott, Bryant is still a tough sell to hit a ceiling since he hasn’t reached 100-yards receiving now in 19 straight regular season games, but this is his best matchup in over a month), Jason Witten (he’s traded seven and one catch games over the past month, but has always given the Giants fits and while New York has held the past two lead tight ends they’ve faced in check, this is still a week geared towards Witten being involved), Evan Engram (Dallas has been up and down versus opposing tight ends on the season, but Engram has such an opportunity advantage at his position that he’s a player you use weekly as he’s averaging 26 percent of the team targets over his past seven games), Sterling Shepard (he should benefit the most from Manning back under center as he had 22 targets over his past two with Manning and Dallas has struggled versus receivers of his archetype, allowing top-15 weeks to Jamison Crowder, Cooper Kupp, , Keenan Allen and Larry Fitzgerald on the season)

 

Titans @ Cardinals

 

Tennessee Rank @ Arizona Rank
-3   Spread 3  
23.5   Implied Total 20.5  
22.2 18 Points/Gm 18.2 24
23.5 18 Points All./Gm 25.8 29
60.6 27 Plays/Gm 65.3 10
65.7 27 Opp. Plays/Gm 65.2 26
45.1% 9 Rush% 36.6% 31
54.9% 24 Pass% 63.4% 2
37.7% 4 Opp. Rush % 41.1% 11
62.3% 29 Opp. Pass % 58.9% 22

 

  • Delanie Walker has 31.3 percent of the Tennessee receiving yardage over the past six weeks, the highest rate for all tight ends over that span.
  • Just 24.4 percent of Marcus Mariota's fantasy output is from passing touchdowns, ahead of only Brett Hundley and DeShone Kizer.
  • 31.2 percent of Mariota's scoring has come from rushing (fourth highest in the league) after 18.2 percent of his scoring came from rushing as a rookie and 18.1 percent in 2016.
  • Derrick Henry leads the league with 376 rushing yards in the fourth quarter, which account for 59.8 percent his rushing yardage on the season. 157 of those yards have come on two carries.
  • Tennessee is allowing 65.0 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks, the fewest in the league. They are allowing 281.3 passing yards per game over that span, the most in the league.
  • The Titans have faced a league-high 38 passing plays from inside of the 10-yard line this season.
  • Just 3.8 percent of Blaine Gabbert's pass attempts have come from inside of the red zone, the lowest rate for all quarterbacks to start multiple games.
  • Gabbert has completed 22-of-28 passes to Larry Fitzgerald (78.6 percent) while completing 40-of-75 passes (53.3 percent) to everyone else in his three games played.

 

Trust: Larry Fitzgerald (he’s been a top-10 scorer in three of his past four games while Tennessee has allowed 14.6 points or more to nine of the opposing WR1s they’ve faced and have especially struggled versus players that primarily play in the slot), Delanie Walker (he’s gotten hot at the right time with five straight TE1 scoring weeks as he’s been the only consistent option for Tennessee and the Cardinals have struggled to contain all the TE1s they have faced, allowing TE1 weeks to Jimmy Graham, Jack Doyle, Cameron Brate and Zach Ertz)

 

Bust: Cardinals RBs (whether Adrian Peterson returns or not, this is a backfield to avoid this week as the Titans are third in rushing points allowed per attempt on the season), Rishard Matthews (coming off a hamstring injury to lock up with Patrick Peterson), DeMarco Murray (his touches are slowly dripping away as he’s averaged 10.8 rushing attempts per game over his past five and needs to touchdown to carry him as he’s averaged 59.5 yards from scrimmage over his past six), Derick Henry (he’s getting a little more work each week, but is still a volatile flex option that needs set up for scoring opportunities and game script to allow him to put games away) Corey Davis (you can squint and sell yourself that Peterson chases Matthews and targets could find him, but he's yet to be better than WR50 since returning with Matthews missing two whole games)

 

Reasonable Return: Blaine Gabbert (he’s gotten a little worse each week since taking over as the starter, but is still a streaming option at home against a defense that is 25th in passing points allowed per game), Ricky Seal-Jones (he still has a low floor as the routes per game still aren’t high, but when he’s in the game, they are throwing it to him as he’s been targeted on 54.8 percent of his routes and had 16 targets over the past three weeks while the Titans have allowed a TE1 in four of their past five games), Marcus Mariota (he’s had 15 or more points in four or his past five games on the backbone of rushing output, but is still lacking a ceiling due to low passing yardage while it’s hard to make a case for his weapons here outside of Walker)

 

Jets @ Broncos 

 

NY Jets Rank @ Denver Rank
-1.5   Spread 1.5  
21.3   Implied Total 19.8  
22.2 19 Points/Gm 17.2 27
24.0 22 Points All./Gm 26.2 31
62.3 23 Plays/Gm 66.4 5
64.2 22 Opp. Plays/Gm 60.0 4
43.7% 12 Rush% 39.9% 22
56.3% 21 Pass% 60.1% 11
43.5% 20 Opp. Rush % 45.4% 30
56.5% 13 Opp. Pass % 54.6% 3

 

  • Denver's eight game losing streak is their longest in a season since 1967 and over that span, they've been outscored by 133 points, 48 more than the next closest team.
  • Opponents have had the lead for 80.8 percent of their offensive plays against Denver over that span, the highest rate in the league.
  • Robby Anderson and Jermaine Kearse are the first pair of Jets teammates to have back to back 100-yard receiving games since Don Maynard and George Sauer in 1967.
  • Bilal Powell has failed gain yardage on 31.7 percent of his carries, Elijah McGuire on 30.4 percent while Matt Forte on just 15.8 percent of his carries.
  • The Jets are allowing a 9.9 percent touchdown rate to opposing passers (31st) while Denver is allowing a 11.4 percent rate, last in the league.
  • C.J. Anderson played 56 percent of the Denver snaps last week, his highest rate since Week 7.
  • Denver has allowed multiple touchdown passes in nine games this season, tied with Dallas for the most in the league.

 

Bust:  Jermaine Kearse (he’s the Jets wideout that is going to run into Chris Harris the most on the inside where 40 percent of his routes come from and runs an extra 30 percent of his routes on the right side, where Aqib Talib will be), Trevor Siemian (he’s squandered so many opportunities and matchup advantages already that there’s no reason to treat as more than a bottom-10 option), DEN RBs (Anderson took back over last week, but the offense was a disaster, so who knows if that usage will hold as this team finishes out the season and the Jets have stuffed the run, allowing 3.7 yards per carry to opposing backs)

 

Reasonable Return: Robby Anderson (even without scoring a touchdown for the first time in six weeks, he was a WR1 a week ago, and although this will be his toughest individual test over his hot streak as Denver has allowed just two wideouts to reach 75-yards receiving in a game, his touchdown and splash play upside are still enough to hold a potential floor) , Josh McCown (Denver is allowing a bed of touchdowns per game to set passers up with respectable floors, but they are still second in passing yards allowed per game, which has made opposing ceilings entirely touchdown dependent), Matt Forte (he’s been the best runner of this backfield while Denver will once again be missing pieces on the defensive line with Derek Wolfe placed on injured reserve while Forte been an RB2 or better in six of his past eight games), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (he’s had just one TE1 week over his past six games, but if there ever was aa week for him to snap out of his funk, targets should inherently be pushed his way as teams target tight ends 26 percent of the time versus Denver, the third highest rate in the league) Demaryius Thomas / Emmanuel Sanders (the quarterback play here is so bad that it's hard to hold either higher than WR3 status because of their floors, but the Jets have allowed 11 receivers to be WR3 or better options over just their past six games)

 

Washington @ Chargers

 

Washington Rank @ LA Chargers Rank
6   Spread -6  
20.0   Implied Total 26.0  
22.7 15 Points/Gm 22.3 17
26.2 30 Points All./Gm 17.7 4
63.6 16 Plays/Gm 62.6 20
62.4 10 Opp. Plays/Gm 64.2 23
41.3% 19 Rush% 40.2% 20
58.7% 14 Pass% 59.8% 13
44.1% 22 Opp. Rush % 42.1% 14
55.9% 11 Opp. Pass % 57.9% 19

 

  • Keenan Allen is the first Chargers player with 100-yards receiving in three straight games since Wes Chandler in 1983.
  • Allen is the first player with 10 receptions in three straight games since Calvin Johnson in 2012.
  • Allen has been targeted on 38.3 percent of his routes over that span after 23.1 percent prior.
  • Hunter Henry had a career-high nine targets and his 20.9 percent target share was his highest rate in a game since Week 6 of last season.
  • In the seven games in which Henry has just reached a double-digit percent share of the team targets, he's been a TE1 six times and averaged 66.7 yards receiving per game.
  • Kirk Cousins has been a QB1 now in just two of his past six games and QB16 or lower in four of those weeks.
  • The Chargers are allowing 10.7 passing points per game, third in the league.
  • Los Angeles has allowed opposing backfields to rush 121 times for 502 yards (4.1 YPC) over their past six games after allowing backfields to rush 156 times for 809 yards (5.2 YPC) over their opening six games.

 

Trust: Philip Rivers (he’s had three straight QB1 weeks and 15 or more points in nine of 12 games this year while Washington has allowed a top-5 week in four of their past seven games, only preventing Eli Manning and Dak Prescott twice over that span to reach those totals), Hunter Henry (you never know when the Chargers may underutilize him next, but we’re in a stretch where they are using him in favorable matchups and this week is another one of those as Washington is 27th in receptions and 30th in receiving yardage allowed per game to opposing tight ends)

 

Bust:  Austin Ekeler (he’s had eight, nine and six touches over the past three weeks as the Chargers have locked down game script, which just isn’t enough to use him), Kirk Cousins (as his offensive has deteriorated over the back of the season, so has his floor for fantasy purposes and the Chargers have allowed just two QB1 weeks on the year and haven’t allowed multiple touchdown passes in a game since Week 5), Vernon Davis (his target share has dropped in three straight games and has just three targets over the past two weeks), Samaje Perine (he had 15 touches last week as his first two strong showings came with game script in his favor while we got a glimpse last week what his usage was like when Washington trails, which is what we’re expecting here), Josh Doctson (he’s mastered the 2-30-1 game, but this is another tough assignment for him locking up with Casey Hayward)

 

Reasonable Return: Keenan Allen (he snapped out of his slump majorly the past three weeks, but all three matchups were layups while Washington has allowed just two top-12 weeks to opposing lead receivers on the year), Melvin Gordon (he’s yet to be an RB1 in the four games since the Chargers bye, but is still getting 22 touches per game over that span), Jamison Crowder (even in a poor game last week, he managed to be a fringe WR3 and will avoid Hayward by running 75 percent of his routes from the slot)

 

Seahawks @ Jaguars

 

Seattle Rank @ Jacksonville Rank
3   Spread -3  
18.3   Implied Total 21.3  
24.2 9 Points/Gm 24.9 7
18.5 8 Points All./Gm 14.8 1
65.7 8 Plays/Gm 67.1 3
64.6 25 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.6 11
40.1% 21 Rush% 49.4% 1
59.9% 12 Pass% 50.6% 32
39.6% 6 Opp. Rush % 41.3% 12
60.4% 27 Opp. Pass % 58.7% 21

 

  • Seattle ranks third in the league in plays run inside of the opponent's 10-yard line (52) and leads the league in plays run inside of the 5-yard line (32).
  • Seattle running backs have converted zero of 11 rushing attempts inside of the 5-yard line for touchdowns and none of seven attempts from 1-2 yards out for scores.
  • Russell Wilson leads the league in fantasy points in fantasy points scored from inside of the 10-yard line (67.1) and inside of the 5-yard line (44.9) on the season.
  • 28.1 percent of Jimmy Graham's targets have come from inside of the red zone, the highest rate in the league for players with 25 or more targets on the season.
  • Opponents have run league lows of 48 red zone plays, 18 plays inside of the 10-yard line and just five plays inside of the 5-yard line versus the Jaguars on the entire season.
  • Mike Davis played 73 percent of the snaps last week, the highest share for a Seattle running back in a game this season.
  • Since returning in Week 10, 25.9 percent of Leonard Fournette's carries have failed to gain yardage and just 3.9 percent have gained 10 or more yards. Those rates were at 16.9 percent and 10.0 percent prior.
  • 74.9 percent of Marqise Lee's fantasy output has come at home this season, the highest rate for all players with over 100 total points on the season.

 

Bust:  Leonard Fournette (he’s struggled on the ground with 57 yards or fewer in three of his four games since his return despite the Jaguars being a more effective passing team while Seattle hasn’t allowed more than 54 rushing yards to a back in a game since Week 3), Doug Baldwin (he’s had just 22 targets over his past four games and runs 76 percent of his routes in the slot to avoid the stellar Jacksonville boundary corners, but Jalen Ramsey did travel into the slot a bit a couple of weeks ago versus Larry Fitzgerald and it's not as if the slot has helped many other top wideouts as just three lead receivers to face Jacksonville have been top-20 scorers), Tyler Lockett / Paul Richardson (if we’re questioning using Baldwin, the ancillary receivers here that will be on the boundaries are completely off the shelf), J.D. McKissic (he already was a low ceiling flex option prior to las week and was down to just two touches and ran just eight pass routes a week ago), Blake Bortles (Seattle has only allowed one QB1 on the season and still hasn’t allowed a QB1 since losing both Rishard Sherman and Kam Chancellor, just holding Carson Wentz to his lowest scoring game since Week 4)

 

Reasonable Return: Russell Wilson (there’s strength of schedule arguments to be made for both Wilson and the Jags defense, but we inherently know that both are very good regardless. Wilson has been the QB9 or higher in nine of his past 10 games, but has faced a top-10 defense in passing points allowed in just two of them, finishing as the QB20 and the QB4 those weeks. Jacksonville has yet to allow a QB1 all season, but have only faced three on the season that are current QB1s. I don’t expect a ceiling game from Wilson where he pushes high QB1 totals since he’s been very reliant on amassing short touchdown opportunities to inflate his totals and teams while Jacksonville prevents teams from sustaining a lot of drives, but a low end QB1 or high QB2 game is achievable given his rushing ability and the Jaguars have allowed two or more rushing points to the four quarterbacks they’ve faced so far with mobility in Marcus Mariota, DeShone Kizer and Jacoby Brissett twice), Jimmy Graham (his ceiling is also compromised since it’s driven by short touchdowns, but 20 percent of the fantasy points scored against the Jaguars have come from tight ends, the eighth-highest share in the league), Mike Davis (the Jaguars haven’t given up tons of points, but when they have, it’s been to opposing backs and have allowed a top-15 back in four of their five games since their Week 8 bye), Marqise Lee (he’s scored in three of his past five games, which can’t be counted on here, but has also had nine or more targets and five or more receptions in four of those games), Dede Westbrook (he has 25 percent of the team targets since being activated and has improved his scoring output each week while Seattle has allowed 12 receptions of 20 or more yards over the past three weeks, the sixth most in the league)

 

Eagles @ Rams

 

Philadelphia Rank @ LA Rams Rank
2   Spread -2  
24.3   Implied Total 26.3  
30.1 1 Points/Gm 30.1 2
17.9 6 Points All./Gm 18.5 7
67.2 2 Plays/Gm 63.2 17
60.3 5 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.7 12
46.5% 7 Rush% 45.1% 8
53.5% 26 Pass% 54.9% 25
32.0% 1 Opp. Rush % 41.6% 13
68.0% 32 Opp. Pass % 58.4% 20

 

  • The Rams have trailed for just 21.9 percent of their snaps this season (second) while the Eagles have trailed for just 25.8 percent (third).
  • Todd Gurley has eight games with at least 40 receiving yards, tied with Alvin Kamara for the most in the league.
  • Gurley ranks fifth in rushing points per game (11.8) and fifth in receiving points per game (10.2) among all running backs.
  • Jared Goff averages 13.0 yards per completions while Carson Wentz averages 12.4 yards per completion, the two highest rates for all active quarterbacks.
  • Alshon Jeffery was targeted on a season-low 10.9 percent of his routes in Week 13 after averaging 22.7 percent prior.
  • Jeffery hasn't had a 100-yard receiving game in 23 straight games played, the longest draught of his career.
  • Nelson Agholor ranks first in percentage of points to come from touchdowns (28.4 percent) while Jeffery ranks third (25.8 percent) of the top-30 scoring wide receivers on the season.

 

Trust: Todd Gurley (he’s had a run here of facing teams that are strong at limiting rushing performances and he hasn’t hit 75 yards rushing in five games, but that hasn’t impacted him for fantasy each week due to his receiving upside)

 

Bust:  Sammy Watkins (he’s scored in four of his past five games if you want to latch onto a scoring opportunity, but is still living off those plays as he hasn’t had more than four catches in a game since Week 3 and 41 or fewer yards in three of those five games), PHI RBs (as a group, this is a fine matchup against a Rams team that is 31st in rushing points allowed per game, but the usage splits in this backfield are just crushing the individuals as no one from the group has been a top-30 scorer over the past two weeks), Trey Burton (he's still on deck to be a streaming option with Ertz expected to miss, but has a low floor versus Rams team that has allowed just thee TE1 weeks on the season and just four touchdowns to the position)

 

Reasonable Return: Jared Goff (he’s had 15 or more points in five of his past six games, but just three top-10 weeks on the year while the Eagles hot streak versus quarterbacks Weeks 8-12 may have been opponent driven as they allowed six straight QB1 games prior to that and then came back and allowed a top-5 game to a capable passer a week ago), Cooper Kupp (he has five or more catches in four straight games and has been the WR10 and WR28 in his two games with Robert Woods inactive), Carson Wentz (last week was his lowest weekly finish since Week 4, but he still put up 16.9 points despite leaving multiple plays on the field. This week is perhaps his toughest draw in some time, however, facing a Rams team that has kept all of Russell Wilson, Drew Brees and Kirk Cousins at QB19 or lower at home this season), Alshon Jeffery (he still posted double-digit points despite the target dip a week ago, but he still has a tough draw against a Rams team that has allowed just two lead receivers to post WR1 weeks and both of those were guys that played a healthy amount of snaps out the slot), Nelson Agholor (his career game last week was aided by game script that hasn’t existed for the Eagles all year, but he’s still a weekly threat for a touchdown while the Rams have given up production out of the slot in three of their past four games)

Ravens @ Steelers 

 

Baltimore Rank @ Pittsburgh Rank
5   Spread -5  
19.0   Implied Total 24.0  
23.3 13 Points/Gm 23.4 12
17.2 3 Points All./Gm 17.8 5
64.4 13 Plays/Gm 65.6 9
64.0 20 Opp. Plays/Gm 58.9 2
44.6% 11 Rush% 42.4% 16
55.4% 22 Pass% 57.6% 17
45.1% 27 Opp. Rush % 40.3% 9
55.0% 6 Opp. Pass % 59.7% 24

 

  • The Ravens have scored a league-low three touchdowns from outside of the red zone this season.
  • Joe Flacco has completed 14-of-55 passes (25.5 percent) on throws 15 yards or further downfield, the lowest rate for all starting quarterbacks in the league.
  • Flacco is averaging 8.5 yards per completion lowest of all starting quarterbacks.
  • Alex Collins has a carry or target on 64 percent of his snaps, the highest rate for all running backs in the league.
  • Collins is the first Baltimore player with a rushing touchdown in three straight games since Willis McGahee in 2010.
  • Baltimore is allowing .289 passing points per attempt, second in the league.
  • The Ravens allowed 251.8 passing yards per game in five games with Jimmy Smith out of the lineup in 2016 while allowing 206.7 per game with him active.
  • One of those games was at Pittsburgh in which Ben Roethlisberger completed 24-of-33 passes for 279 yards and three touchdowns and two interceptions (19.1 points).
  • In that game, Antonio Brown caught 10-of-11 targets for 96 yards and a touchdown.

 

Trust: Le’Veon Bell (the league leader in touches has started to go nuts in the passing game, racking up 31 catches over his past four games 70.8 receiving yards per game on top of his already lofty rushing workload), Antonio Brown (he had a season low 34 receiving yards when these teams met in Week 4, but with Smith sidelined, the Ravens have been a different pass defense and Brown has had 100-yards receiving with a touchdown in each of the past three weeks)

 

Bust:  Martavis Bryant (you need a touchdown if you’re fishing here as his target share didn’t move with JuJu Smith-Schuster out of the lineup two weeks ago and has hit 50-yards receiving just once all season), Joe Flacco (he’s finished as QB15 or lower in nine of his past 10 games against the Steelers with his lone QB1 performance over that span coming in 2014), Danny Woodhead (game script could be more in line to give him a few extra snaps and targets compared to his first three games back from injury, but Woodhead is on a low-ceiling flex at best on a team that is the bottom half of the league in passing volume)

 

Reasonable Return: Ben Roethlisberger (he’s playing the best he has all season with four straight top-10 games and six in a row at QB14 or higher while the Ravens defense will travel without their best perimeter defender), Alex Collins (the touchdowns have carried him to RB1 status the past three weeks, but his total yardage of 71, 57 and 98 yards over that span still is more like an RB2 if you get shut out of the paint), Mike Wallace (he’s been a top-30 in three of his past four and has 19 targets over the past two weeks while the Steelers have allowed eight top-30 receivers over their past five games)   

 

 

Patriots @ Dolphins

 

New England Rank @ Miami Rank
-11.5   Spread 11.5  
29.3   Implied Total 17.8  
29.0 4 Points/Gm 17.4 26
18.6 9 Points All./Gm 24.8 24
67.6 1 Plays/Gm 60.9 25
63.5 16 Opp. Plays/Gm 61.3 9
42.3% 17 Rush% 37.1% 30
57.7% 16 Pass% 62.9% 3
37.5% 3 Opp. Rush % 44.2% 23
62.5% 30 Opp. Pass % 55.8% 10

 

  • The last time the Patriots ran a play while trailing in a game was in the first quarter of Week 8.
  • After rushing for 106 yards per game through 10 games, the Patriots have run for 196 and 191 yards over the past two weeks.
  • Since the Patriots Week 9 bye, Rex Burkhead is tied for the league lead with six touches inside of the 5-yard line with Latavius Murray. Dion Lewis has one.
  • Danny Amendola has been the WR15, WR19 and WR9 in the three games that Rob Gronkowski has missed or had five or fewer targets.
  • Tom Brady has thrown three or more touchdown passes in each of the past six games in which he failed to throw a touchdown the week prior.
  • 91.7 percent (22-of-24) of the Miami offensive touchdowns have been passing, the highest rate in the league. Their two rushing touchdowns have both been by Kenyan Drake on runs of 66 and 42 yards.
  • Jarvis Landry has scored double-digit points in 11 games this season, tied with DeAndre Hopkins for the most in the league.
  • DeVante Parker has been targeted on just 9.6 percent of his routes over the past two weeks after receiving a target on 23.7 percent prior.

 

Trust: Tom Brady (last week was the first time he failed to throw a touchdown since Week 1 and he’s recently followed up those performances with huge games), Brandin Cooks (it was surprising that he got just three looks last week against a team that has had a lot of trouble defending lead receivers, but with no Gronk, he should bounce back against a team he just posted a 6-83-1 line against two weeks ago)

 

Bust:  Jay Cutler (he has one week higher than QB18 and the Patriots haven’t allowed a passer to finish higher than QB20 since Week 7), DeVante Parker (he’s been passed over with Kenny Stills playing well, even with Cutler under center, totaling just 36 yards over his past three games), Kenny Stills (he’s been a WR3 or better in six of his past eight games, but one of those games was a WR52 week against New England as both Stephon Gilmore and Malcolm Butler have been lights out, allowing only one wide receiver to finish as a top-24 scorer over the past three weeks and it was Landry), Dwayne Allen (his first five catches of the season have come over the past four weeks, but he didn’t catch a pass the last time that Gronk was inactive and is still best suited a run blocker, so it’s hard to bump him up solely on Gronk being out), Julius Thomas (he’s scored in three of his past five games, but he hasn’t been a TE1 in a game without a touchdown), 

 

Reasonable Return: Dion Lewis / Rex Burkhead (keep firing up both guys weekly now that the running back situation has some clarity. Lewis is a yardage floor RB2/flex that has carried 30 times for 204 yards the past two weeks while Burkhead is the drive closer that has scored in three of the past four weeks), Danny Amendola (I know nobody wants to place faith him when things are on the line, but whether is happenstance or not, his only usable moments this season directly line up with down weeks for Gronkowski in terms of volume or missing the game outright and we still can’t count on Hogan being active), Jarvis Landry (we knew the short scores were going to run out eventually, but his floor is just as high as any receiver), Kenyan Drake (he tallied 26 touches in his career game as a lead back and has been an RB2 or better in three of his past four games. The game script should reduce his rushing volume, but will be a floor RB2 with his receiving ability against a New England team that is 20th in receptions allowed to running backs), Chris Hogan (if active, we express caution when talking about players returning from long injury related layoffs, but Hogan had a season-high 11 targets in the one game Gronk was inactive a despite missing the past four games, Hogan is still second on the team in red zone targets with 11, trailing only Gronkowski’s 15)

 

Rich Hribar
Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.