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The Worksheet

The Worksheet: Week 17

by Rich Hribar
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Happy New Year! If you're reading this, you either still have a league championship this weekend, really love fantasy football or you're wading into the Daily Fantasy waters. Week 17 can be a weird week and we already have a wealth of games that have yet to have lines posted for them. Here's the disclaimer that I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points in conjunction with your own information and thought process rather than searching out your own players in the individual player diagnosis and turning that section into a linear start/sit guide. With that out of the way, let’s hit all of the Week 17 games in a PPR fashion....


Jacksonville vs. Houston

Jaguars @ Texans
n/a Spread n/a
n/a Team O/U n/a
63.9 Plays/Gm 70.2
68.5 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.1
35.5% Rush % 41.9%
64.5% Pass % 58.1%
42.1% Opp. Rush % 40.1%
57.9% Opp. Pass % 59.9%


  • Denard Robinson has had 10 of his 20 carries over the past two weeks go for two yards or less with a long of just nine yards.
  • Just three of Blake Bortles' 35 touchdowns have come with a lead already and just 12 have given them a lead in a game this season.
  • Allen Robinson's 28 receptions of 20 or more yards lead the league and are the most ever by a Jacksonville wide receiver in a season.
  • Since Week 8, the Texans have allowed just 11 touchdowns (the fewest in the league) on their opponent's 95 possessions (11.6 percent).
  • Over those eight games, they've allowed 186.1 passing yards per game (first) and 82.8 rushing yards (fifth) per game.
  • Over the past two weeks, 43.9 percent of Brandon Weeden's passes have targeted DeAndre Hopkins.
  • Jacksonville has allowed 21 pass plays of 20 or more yards over the past five weeks, the most in the league.


Trust: DeAndre Hopkins (Houston has to approach this game to win it and if Brian Hoyer is back, they’ll want to get him reps heading into the postseason), Allen Robinson (he’s scored in nine of his past 11 games)

Bust: Denard Robinson (this team just isn’t built to run this season and there’s not much touchdown upside from a backfield that has three rushing touchdowns on the season), Allen Hurns (expecting Julius Thomas to see the target bump as they’ve been trading each other’s target share), Brian Hoyer (generally always temper expectations for quarterbacks coming off of multiple week layoffs), Alfred Blue/Chris Polk (Jacksonville has been leaky against the run of late, but there’s still too much weekly ambiguity here to use anyone)


Reasonable Return: Blake Bortles (don’t see a ceiling game here, but he has just three weeks in the back half of quarterback scoring), Julius Thomas (has seen just two targets last week in a great spot, but he had a nice 7/78/1 line in the first meeting), Nate Washington (when Cecil Shorts is out, he’s been in the WR2/3 mix)


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Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland

Steelers @ Browns
-10 Spread 10
28.5 Team O/U 17.5
63.7 Plays/Gm 64.4
65.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.9
38.6% Rush % 36.9%
61.4% Pass % 63.1%
36.7% Opp. Rush % 46.6%
63.3% Opp. Pass % 53.4%


  • Only the Saints have allowed more games with multiple passing touchdowns (12) than the 11 allowed by the Browns.
  • With Ben Roethlisberger as the primary quarterback, Pittsburgh has averaged just 22.6 points per game on the road this season as opposed to 33.3 points per game at home.
  • Over his past six games against Cleveland, Antonio Brown averages 23.2 points per game with a low of 17.7 points.
  • Martavis Bryant had just 8.8 percent of the team targets last week, his lowest total on the season after averaging 23.6 percent of the team targets over the previous five games.
  • In games with Le'Veon Bell inactive, DeAngelo Williams averages 122.2 yards from scrimmage per game.
  • Since Bell was injured in Week 8, Williams leads the NFL in rushing attempts inside of the 5-yard line with 12, converting seven for scores.
  • Cleveland allows 3.9 red zone trips per game, 31st in the league.
  • Isaiah Crowell has been held under 3.0 yards per carry in seven games this season, tied for most in the league and under 4.0 yards per carry in 10 games, tied for the second most.
  • Pittsburgh ranks third in rushing points allowed per attempt (.460), but 21st in passing points allowed per attempt (.454).


Trust: Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, DeAngelo Williams (despite their up and down road performances, it’s hard to get away from the main pieces in a game with this high of an implied team point total)


Bust: Isaiah Crowell (has had his best moments with Manziel under center, but this is a poor spot for volume and efficiency), Markus Wheaton (this should be a game where the main pieces thrive, leaving Wheaton to work with only a handful of opportunities), Heath Miller (a floor play with just three top-15 scoring weeks over his past 12 games)


Reasonable Return: Martavis Bryant (he shredded Cleveland in Week 10 and his wheel is a little squeaky after last week), Johnny Manziel (he was QB12 in that Week 10 meeting and Pittsburgh has allowed top half scoring weeks to Ryan Mallett, Brock Osweiler and A.J. McCarron over the past three weeks), Travis Benjamin (the Steelers give up their share of passing yards and the volume should much higher than it’s been for this passing game over the past three weeks), Gary Barnidge (his ceiling has been much lower with Manziel, but he’s still the primary red zone option)


New York (AFC) vs. Buffalo

Jets @ Bills
-3 Spread 3
23 Team O/U 20
67.9 Plays/Gm 62.9
62.7 Opp. Plays/Gm 64.1
42.3% Rush % 49.4%
57.7% Pass % 50.6%
35.1% Opp. Rush % 39.2%
64.9% Opp. Pass % 60.8%


  • The Bills' eight rushing touchdowns of 20 yards or longer are the most by a team in a season since Tennessee in 2009 (Chris Johnson had all eight).
  • Karlos Williams played 61.3 percent of the team snaps to Mike Gillislee's 35.5 percent and had 19 touches to Gillislee's 11.
  • Of all backs with 20 or more carries on the season, Gillislee ranks first with 1.82 rushing points and Williams ranks fourth (.98 points) in rushing points per attempt.
  • The 148 rushing yards that Buffalo had against the Jets in Week 10 were the most New York has allowed all season long.
  • Both the Bills and the Jets have allowed 57 pass plays of 20 yards or more, tied for the fourth most in the league.
  • Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker are the first set of Jets teammates to ever have double digit receiving touchdowns in the same season.
  • Last Sunday, Ryan Fitzpatrick tied Vinny Testaverde (1998) for the franchise record with 29 touchdown passes on the season and needs 283 passing yards to set the franchise mark of 4,007 yards set by Joe Namath back in 1967.


Trust: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker (this pass game has been cruising and the distribution is shallow, creating the consistency we’ve leaned on)


Bust: Chris Ivory (one top-20 scoring week in the six games since Bilal Powell returned), Sammy Watkins (he had opportunities against Darrelle Revis in the first meeting, but this is still a spot where I expect him to shoot under par), Tyrod Taylor (had his second lowest passing yardage on the season in the first meeting and the volume is always questionable. He’ll need to keep running like he has over the past month)


Reasonable Return: Karlos Williams (despite the paper matchup against the best run defense, Buffalo is the league’s best running team and they won’t get away from it until the situation is dire), Bilal Powell (has been effective with his rushing opportunities on top of his pass catching floor)


New England vs. Miami


Patriots @ Dolphins
n/a Spread n/a
n/a Team O/U n/a
66.4 Plays/Gm 60.3
64.6 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.1
35.7% Rush % 34.3%
64.3% Pass % 65.7%
37.5% Opp. Rush % 46.6%
62.5% Opp. Pass % 53.4%


  • Ryan Tannehill currently ranks 26th in yards per pass attempt (7.0), which would be his fourth consecutive season finishing below QB20 in that category.
  • Tannehill has finished as the QB16 or lower in 10 games this season, tied with Sam Bradford for the second most behind Teddy Bridgewater's 12.
  • After scoring on six of their 13 possessions in Week 7 against Houston, Miami has scored on just 22.3 percent (23 of 103) of their drives over the past nine weeks, the worst rate in the league.
  • Steven Jackson played nine snaps in his Patriot debut, carrying on seven of them (31.8 percent of the team total). James White played 22 snaps and Brandon Bolden 27.
  • Since Week 11, Tom Brady ranks 13th in points per game (19.3), 16th in passing points per attempt (.445) and 13th in passing yards per game (265.5) after ranking first, second and first in those marks through 10 weeks.
  • Over that span, Brady has completed 59.7 percent of his passes for 6.8 yards per attempt, down from the 67.8 percent and 8.2 Y/A clip he had Weeks 1-10.


Bust: Lamar Miller (under 3.0 yards per carry in three of his past five and volume concerns are always an issue while the team may take one real last look at Jay Ajayi), Ryan Tannehill (even when he has immense volume, his ceiling has barely scratched the surface of being a QB1)


Reasonable Return: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski (I’d trust using them in seasonal leagues that are ongoing still as New England is still playing to wrap up home field, but the dogs still might be called off at some point), Jarvis Landry (has 10 or more targets in 10 games, you know what you’re getting), Devante Parker (80 plus yards in three of his past five), James White (despite not seeing full usage in the ilk of Dion Lewis, he’s been a top-24 scorer in five of his past six games)


Tennessee vs. Indianapolis

Titans @ Colts
n/a Spread n/a
n/a Team O/U n/a
61.2 Plays/Gm 65.4
62.2 Opp. Plays/Gm 67.6
37.5% Rush % 37.1%
62.5% Pass % 62.9%
46.1% Opp. Rush % 41.9%
53.9% Opp. Pass % 58.1%


  • The Titans have scored a touchdown on four of 49 drives (8.2 percent) with Zach Mettenberger under center. They have scored on 21.7 percent with Marcus Mariota.
  • Dorial Green-Beckham had just 5.9 percent of the team targets last week, his lowest total in a game since Week 7.
  • Opponents have scored on 51.1 percent of their possessions over the past four weeks against the Titans, most in the league. The Colts have scored on just 21.3 percent (10 of 47) over that same span, 31st in the league.
  • After allowing just one top-20 wide receiver through six games, the Titans have allowed 10 over their past nine games.
  • T.Y. Hilton averaged 7.8 targets per game this season without Andrew Luck, down from the 9.3 per game with him in the lineup.
  • The Colts have an 11.1 percent sack rate over the past three weeks, the highest in the league. Tennessee allows a sack rate of 8.7 percent, 28th in the league.


Trust: Delanie Walker (I’m not looking at this game for many usable points, but the Colts have allowed eight top-12 scoring tight ends, including Walker in Week 3)


Bust: Zach Mettenberger, Dorial Green-Beckham (everyone outside of Walker isn’t touchable), Donte Moncrief (has topped 60 yards in just one of his past nine games)


Reasonable Return: T.Y. Hilton (will definitely see the most targets, but the floor has been largely unusable), Frank Gore (similar to Hilton, he’s going to see volume here, but there remains a low floor)


Baltimore vs. Cincinnati

Ravens @ Bengals
n/a Spread n/a
n/a Team O/U n/a
67.0 Plays/Gm 63.1
62.9 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.6
36.0% Rush % 46.5%
64.0% Pass % 53.5%
41.5% Opp. Rush % 33.9%
58.5% Opp. Pass % 66.1%


  • After being benched in Week 15 after just nine snaps, Javorius Allen led the backfield with 45 snaps this past week.
  • Allen has been a top-seven scoring back in three of the five games since Justin Forsett was lost for the season. Forsett was a top-10 scorer just once through nine complete games.
  • Allen has 16.1 percent of the team targets over that span after Forsett saw 11.2 percent through Week 10.
  • The Bengals allow the fifth most receptions per game (6.2) and the sixth most receiving yards per game (49.6) to opposing running backs in the league.
  • Without Steve Smith, Kamar Aiken has been the WR32, WR20, WR13, WR16, WR16, WR41, WR29, WR8, and WR19 in weekly scoring.
  • Aiken has seen 24.1 percent of the team targets with Smith out of the lineup.
  • After having just two top-20 scoring weeks through 10 games, A.J. Green has been a top-15 scorer in four of his past five games and in every complete game he's played.
  • Baltimore was allowing 300.8 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks through eight games, but has since allowed just 198 per game over their past seven games and just one top-12 scorer.
  • The Bengals have scored a touchdown on 21.2 percent of their drives with A.J. McCarron after scoring a touchdown on 30.2 percent under Andy Dalton.


Trust: A.J. Green (he roasted the Ravens earlier in the season for his best game of the year, but run far away if McCarron doesn't play)


Bust: Giovani Bernard (just not being used enough to warrant using a flex/floor option as he has just one top-30 scoring week over his past five games), A.J. McCarron (even if he plays, only Russell Wilson has gotten over on Baltimore over the past seven weeks)


Reasonable Return: Jeremy Hill (Baltimore has been run on over the past four weeks and if the Bengals are looking to hold a lead, he should see volume), Javorius Allen (his passing game floor should be enough to keep him in the high RB2 mix), Kamar Aiken (has been ultra-reliable as a WR3 floor option), Marvin Jones (his target share with McCarron has remained the same, but his ceiling is still just as a WR3)


Washington vs. Dallas

Washington @ Cowboys
n/a Spread n/a
n/a Team O/U n/a
63.2 Plays/Gm 60.1
62.8 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.3
41.5% Rush % 43.5%
58.5% Pass % 56.5%
41.4% Opp. Rush % 45.4%
58.6% Opp. Pass % 54.6%


  • After allowing seven passing touchdowns through their first five games, Dallas has allowed just eight (T-2nd fewest) since their Week 6 bye.
  • Darren McFadden has 90 or more rushing yards in six games this season, behind only Doug Martin (seven) and Adrian Peterson (eight) on the season.
  • Washington allows .611 rushing points per attempt, 25th in the league.
  • Dallas has 21 touchdowns this season, the fewest in the league.
  • Kellen Moore's 41.9 completion percentage last week was the third lowest for a quarterback with 30-plus pass attempts on the season.
  • With Dez Bryant out, Terrance Williams accrued 32.3 percent of the team targets, his second largest total on the season and highest since Week 4 (38.5 percent).


Bust: Washington skill players (I don’t have much on Washington because they are the one team entering this week with truly nothing to play for, making their offensive options too risky to use anywhere)


Reasonable Return: Darren McFadden (despite his surroundings, he’s turned in one of his best seasons as a pro and is looking to cross 1,000 yards for the second time in his career), Terrance Williams/Brice Butler (without Dez Bryant and Dallas continuing to look at Kellen Moore, the targets are going here, but the floor is also low with not much of a ceiling)


New Orleans vs. Atlanta

Saints @ Falcons
4 Spread -4
24 Team O/U 28
68.7 Plays/Gm 67.3
62.2 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.1
36.4% Rush % 39.0%
63.6% Pass % 61.0%
42.3% Opp. Rush % 42.3%
57.7% Opp. Pass % 57.7%


  • The Saints have allowed three or more touchdown passes in eight games this season, tying an NFL record set by four other teams.
  • New Orleans is allowing .655 passing points per attempt, highest in the league (league average is .431).
  • Matt Ryan is averaging just .374 passing points per attempt, ahead of only Sam Bradford (.361) and Joe Flacco (.348) for all quarterbacks with 200 or more pass attempts.
  • Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman have accounted for 60.7 percent of Ryan's fantasy passing output.
  • Since Week 9, Atlanta has rushed for just 73.0 yards per game, the fewest in the league.
  • Freeman's 71 receptions are the second most in franchise history behind Williams Andrews' 81 set back in 1981.
  • Both the Saints and Falcons rank near the bottom of rushing and receiving points allowed to running backs. The Saints allow 13.4 receiving points (32nd) and 15.5 rushing points (30th) while the Falcons allow 12.7 receiving points (30th) and 15.1 rushing points (27th) per game to backs.
  • Over the past three weeks, Tim Hightower leads all running backs in touches (75) and is second in yards from scrimmage (349) while finishing as the RB9, RB23 and RB2 over those weeks.
  • Hightower has averaged 87.0 rushing yards and 29.3 receiving yards per game over those three games compared to 64.1/33.8 for Ingram on the season.
  • Brandin Cooks has been a top-24 scorer in two of seven road games this season.
  • Drew Brees has had 40 or more pass attempts in nine games, the most in the league. Ryan has thrown 40 or more passes in seven games, tied for third.


Trust: Devonta Freeman (he’s been outside of the top-12 just twice over his past 13 games despite hitting a wall on the ground over his past six), Julio Jones (still has a very outside shot at the single season reception record)


Reasonable Return: Matt Ryan (hasn’t been a top-10 scorer since Week 8, but the Saints are the cure), Drew Brees (downgraded a notch for going on the road, but still indoors and he looked more than fine last week health-wise), Brandin Cooks (he’s been hit or miss on the road as opposed to unstoppable at home, but this is one of our chances at a shootout this weekend), Willie Snead (since coming back from his knee injury has been the WR15, WR24 and WR36), Tim Hightower (has seamlessly absorbed all of Mark Ingram’s opportunity and produced in a similar fashion), Ben Watson (a little banged up to keep from likely hitting the massive numbers he had versus Atlanta in Week 6)


Detroit vs. Chicago

Lions @ Bears
1 Spread -1
21.5 Team O/U 23
64.4 Plays/Gm 64.9
63.1 Opp. Plays/Gm 61.1
34.5% Rush % 45.6%
65.5% Pass % 54.4%
42.7% Opp. Rush % 44.9%
57.3% Opp. Pass % 55.1%


  • In the four complete games he's played without Alshon Jeffery, Jay Cutler has averaged just 6.5 yards per attempt as opposed to 7.7 Y/A when Jeffery has played.
  • Jeremy Langford played 38 snaps this past week to 28 for Matt Forte, the second consecutive week that Langford has out-snapped him.
  • Since Forte has returned, Ka'Deem Carey has as many carries (two) inside of the 10-yard line as Langford.
  • Since Week 9, Zach Miller ranks 8th in points per game (12.7), 7th in yards per game (50.5), while first in points per target (2.7) of all tight ends.
  • In the four games that Martellus Bennett has missed, Miller has seen 21.6 percent of the team targets and averaged 13.5 points per game.
  • Matthew Stafford has multiple touchdown passes in five consecutive games, something he hasn't done since 2011 (eight straight games).
  • Since the Week 9 bye, Stafford averages .532 passing points per attempt (4th in the league). Chicago is allowing .502 passing points per attempt on defense, 28th in the league.
  • Calvin Johnson has gone over 100-yards in each of his past three games against the Bears while scoring four of his past five facing them.
  • Johnson's 166 yards against the Bears back in Week 6 was his only 100-yard game on the season, his fewest in a season since his rookie year in 2007.


Trust: Matthew Stafford (has been efficient since the bye and also had a ceiling over that span with three top-6 scoring weeks)


Bust: Matt Forte/Jeremy Langford (Forte is on the backburner of future plans, but Langford isn’t seeing the money touches to get him over the split), Jay Cutler (without Alshon active, there’s no real threat to help him reach a big ceiling), Joique Bell/Ameer Abdullah (Bell needs a layup scoring to overcome his low volume and Abdullah needs to score on a long run to overcome not getting touches near the end zone)


Reasonable Return: Calvin Johnson (was back to life last week, but has still been mostly a floor play even at his best), Golden Tate (has still yet to cross 80 yards receiving in a game while living off of a reception floor), Zach Miller (he’s really all the Bears have right now in the passing game)


Philadelphia vs. New York (NFC)

Eagles @ Giants
3 Spread -3
24 Team O/U 27
69.2 Plays/Gm 64.8
71.1 Opp. Plays/Gm 69.3
40.2% Rush % 37.8%
59.8% Pass % 62.2%
41.4% Opp. Rush % 40.2%
58.6% Opp. Pass % 59.8%


  • Since Week 9, the Eagles have allowed 24 passing touchdowns, the most in the league and their mark of 3.0 allowed per game over that span trails only New Orleans (3.3).
  • In five games now without Odell Beckham over the past two seasons, Eli Manning has one top-12 scoring week with the average week of QB18, throwing 10 touchdowns to eight interceptions.
  • Odell Beckham has scored a touchdown in five straight games played, the Giants franchise record is six set by Plaxico Burress in 2007.
  • Rueben Randle has scored a touchdown in five of his past seven games, but hasn't eclipsed six targets in a game since Week 8.
  • Rashad Jennings has had 68.8 percent, 59.3 percent and 70 percent of the team carries over the past three weeks and has been the RB21, RB14 and the RB19.
  • Darren Sproles led the Eagles backfield in snaps for the fourth straight week, playing 37 snaps to 17 for Ryan Mathews and 15 for DeMarco Murray.
  • Over the past three weeks, Zach Ertz has 28 percent of the Eagles targets as his 37 bulk targets trail only Jarvis Landry and Antonio Brown (39 each) over the stretch.
  • Over those weeks, Ertz has been the TE7, TE2 and TE2 overall.
  • All six of Jordan Matthews' receiving touchdowns have come in the fourth quarter or overtime this season.


Trust: Eli Manning (both of these teams play with a fast pace and both have lackluster defenses), Odell Beckham (the matchup is ripe to brush some the ugly narrative surrounding him aside heading into the offseason), Zach Ertz (he’s been the most reliable target in terms of volume and the Giants allow the second most receiving yardage per game to tight ends)


Bust: DeMarco Murray/Ryan Mathews (Sproles is seeing the bulk of the snaps and each is reliant upon getting an easy score)


Reasonable Return: Sam Bradford (he’s thrown for 360 and 380 yards the past two weeks and the Giants are willing to give passing yardage out), Jordan Matthews (has the best matchup with Trevin Wade, but hasn’t been trustworthy until the offense has come unhinged), Darren Sproles (has been a solid flex play, but also has limited touchdown upside), Rueben Randle (he’s become the poor man’s Marvin Jones in a sense of living off of middling targets but still a threat to find the end zone), Rashad Jennings (has been the Giants best offensive player over the past three weeks outside of Beckham and they are finally giving one back the main bulk of use), Will Tye (his usage dropped last week with Beckham being a net loss for everyone, but is a cheap way to get a piece of Manning, who I like a lot this week)


St. Louis vs. San Francisco

Rams @ 49ers
-3 Spread 3
20 Team O/U 17
56.6 Plays/Gm 59.4
67.5 Opp. Plays/Gm 67.3
46.6% Rush % 40.0%
53.4% Pass % 60.0%
41.5% Opp. Rush % 46.6%
58.5% Opp. Pass % 53.4%


  • Todd Gurley's .75 rushing points per attempt are the highest in the league for all backs with 200 or more carries on the season.
  • Gurley leads the NFL in fourth quarter rushing attempts (61) and his 6.6 yards per carry on those attempts trail only Adrian Peterson (7.0).
  • San Francisco allows 91.6 rushing yards per game at home compared to 155.6 per game on the road, the largest disparity in the league.
  • The Rams have scored eight offensive touchdowns on 29 drives (27.6 percent) since firing Frank Cignetti, ninth in the league after scoring 18 touchdowns on 146 drives (12.3 percent) prior, last in the league.
  • Jarryd Hayne led the 49ers' backfield in snaps last week with 37. Kendall Gaskins played 27, while DuJuan Harris played 15.
  • Hayne had a team-high 14 touches while Harris had 12 and Gaskins just two.
  • Blaine Gabbert has been sacked on 8.5 percent of his drop backs, the highest in the league since taking over as starter.
  • These teams rank 31st and 32nd in plays run per game.


Trust: Todd Gurley (despite San Francisco’s splits at home, the Rams aren’t going to get away from the run and San Francisco is unlikely to force them to)


Bust: San Francisco backs (Mike Davis could be active this week and the team may want to get a significant look at him, but the projected low team total in a negative spot with an overall limited tempo to the game isn’t appealing to chase this rainbow), Kenny Britt (the spot isn’t bad and he has scored in each of the past two games, but also had just five total targets in those games), Blaine Gabbert/Anquan Boldin/Torrey Smith (in a spot similar to when they faced Cleveland a few weeks ago, the overall play volume should be low and this group isn’t one that you’re chasing efficiency with to begin with)


Reasonable Return: Tavon Austin (the roller coaster ride goes on weekly, but San Francisco is a team that he actually got involved in against as a true receiver in Week 8. He’s a dart I’d throw in spots this week)


Tampa Bay vs. Carolina

Buccaneers @ Panthers
10.5 Spread -10.5
17.5 Team O/U 28.5
63.0 Plays/Gm 66.6
65.5 Opp. Plays/Gm 65.8
45.7% Rush % 49.5%
54.3% Pass % 50.5%
44.2% Opp. Rush % 34.7%
55.8% Opp. Pass % 65.3%


  • Mike Evans has just 82 total receiving yards in three career games against the Panthers.
  • Doug Martin has had 5.0 yards per carry or more on double digit carries in seven games this season, the most in the league.
  • Since Week 9, Carolina has allowed just 67.8 rushing yards per game, the fewest in the league.
  • Austin Seferian-Jenkins played just 17 snaps last week, his lowest total since returning in Week 13.
  • Jameis Winston's 17.1 points per game are currently the fifth highest for a rookie quarterback with double digit games played.
  • Carolina has allowed just two top-12 scoring quarterbacks on the season, the fewest in the league.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have completed 69.3 percent of their passes against Tampa Bay, the highest rate in the league.
  • Cam Newton's 8.4 rushing attempts per game are the highest mark in his career.


Trust: Cam Newton (at home against a soft defense is just what the Panthers could use to get right back on track and lock up the top seed in the NFC)


Bust: Mike Evans, Jameis Winston, Doug Martin (this is a bad spot for the Bucs who have lost three in a row to teams with losing records as they go on the road to a team looking to cement their place in the NFC), Carolina backs (as whole they’re fine, but no one here has proven to have standalone value as a play and if Jonathan Stewart returns, that adds another option to the mix as I doubt he'll see a full workload)


Reasonable Return: Greg Olsen (has been a top-12 scorer in just two of his past five, but still the main spoke in the passing wheel), Ted Ginn (his floor caught back up to him last week, but this is a matchup where he should have opportunities)


Oakland vs. Kansas City

Raiders @ Chiefs
6.5 Spread -6.5
17.5 Team O/U 24.5
63.6 Plays/Gm 59.3
68.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 65.5
37.1% Rush % 44.6%
62.9% Pass % 55.4%
35.9% Opp. Rush % 37.4%
64.1% Opp. Pass % 62.6%


  • The 232 rushing yards allowed by the Chiefs last week were the most they've allowed in a game since Week 9, 2013.
  • Derek Carr has thrown 18 touchdowns to four interceptions against teams that rank in the bottom half of passing points allowed per attempt as opposed to 13 touchdowns to eight interceptions versus teams in the top half.
  • Michael Crabtree has topped 55 receiving yards just once over his past seven games.
  • Alex Smith's 437 rushing yards are a new career and franchise high in a season for a quarterback.
  • Jeremy Maclin's 84 receptions are the most by a Chiefs wide receiver since Dwayne Bowe's 86 in 2008.
  • After allowing five top-12 scoring tight ends through seven weeks, Oakland has allowed two since.
  • With Spencer Ware returning, he played just 11 snaps to Charcandrick West's 48, and had just five carries to West's 14.


Trust: Jeremy Maclin (Oakland has struggled against lead receivers all season, including a 9/95/2 line to Maclin himself in Week 13)


Bust: Charcandrick West/Spencer Ware (Oakland has been great against the run outside of a two game run mid-season and neither have been involved in the passing game of late) , Derek Carr (he’s picked on soft opponents while struggling against tougher ones consistently this season), Michael Crabtree (he has seen 11 targets in the last meeting between these teams and turned them into just 45 yards, but saved that line with a touchdown), Amari Cooper (he’s banged up and has found the end zone in just one of his past seven games)


Reasonable Return: Alex Smith (has had back to back great matchups that he’s sleepwalked through as he’s strictly a floor option), Travis Kelce (lacking the true explosive plays and consistent scoring opportunities to vault him near the top of tight ends weekly, but still carrying a reception floor better than most at the position), Latavius Murray (a lower RB2 play only in this one with steady volume while being a reasonable road underdog with a low projected team total)


San Diego vs. Denver

Chargers @ Broncos
n/a Spread n/a
n/a Team O/U n/a
68.9 Plays/Gm 66.1
59.6 Opp. Plays/Gm 64.4
35.2% Rush % 38.2%
64.8% Pass % 61.8%
43.1% Opp. Rush % 39.2%
56.9% Opp. Pass % 60.8%


  • Over the past five weeks, Denver has allowed just five rushes of 10 or more yards (fewest in the league) on 112 rushing attempts.
  • Brock Osweiler has 20.7 more fantasy points on the season that Peyton Manning on 69 fewer pass attempts.
  • San Diego has allowed just 208.3 passing yards per game since Week 10, the fourth fewest in the league.
  • Demaryius Thomas has 100 yards or a touchdown in six of his past seven games against the Chargers.
  • The Broncos ran a season-high 39 times when these two teams met back in Week 13.
  • Dontrelle Inman's 13 targets and 26.5 percent target share last week were his highest totals of the season.
  • Antonio Gates' two targets and 4.1 percent share were his lowest totals of the season.
  • Danny Woodhead has had 18.8 percent of the team targets over the past two weeks, trailing only Inman. Teams target their running backs 8.5 times per against Denver, the second most in the league.


Trust: Danny Woodhead (with the receivers and run game expected to struggle, he’s the best chance the Chargers have at moving the football, but his usage sometimes disappears for stretches)


Bust: Donald Brown (17 yards last week on 14 carries and gets an even worse matchup this week), Philip Rivers (since Keenan Allen was lost, he’s been an opponent driven fantasy option and this is one of the worst opponents for quarterbacks), Antonio Gates (even if his usage bounces back to close the season, you’re looking a low ceiling), Denver Backfield (the group is in a great spot here and the game could play out in a similar fashion to the first time these two teams met, but the unnecessary ambiguity is dampening any individual play as C.J. Anderson has thoroughly outplayed Ronnie Hillman, but there continues to be a true split), Brock Osweiler (this is a game where he sets up to be more of a caretaker than asked to be a playmaker)


Reasonable Return: Demaryius Thomas (had a season-low six targets against San Diego in Week 13, but outside of that has had at least 12 or more targets in four of his past five), Emmanuel Sanders (has gotten back into a groove by scoring in each of the past two weeks, but with fewer than 25 receiving yards in four of his past eight, there’s still a lower floor here than there is for Thomas)


Seattle vs. Arizona


Seahawks @ Cardinals
4.5 Spread -4.5
21.5 Team O/U 27
64.4 Plays/Gm 65.5
59.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 60.9
37.9% Rush % 47.6%
62.1% Pass % 52.4%
39.3% Opp. Rush % 36.9%
60.7% Opp. Pass % 63.1%


  • David Johnson is the first Cardinals player to have four games in a row with 100 or more yards from scrimmage since Anquan Boldin in 2005 and their first running back to do it since Marcel Ship in 2003.
  • Seattle has allowed multiple touchdown passes in just three games this season, the fewest in the league.
  • Seattle has allowed 22.8 points per game against the five top-10 quarterbacks in passing points per attempt they’ve faced as opposed to 9.1 points per game to quarterbacks outside.
  • Larry Fitzgerald's 6.0 yards per target ranks 83rd for all receivers over the past five weeks.
  • Since Week 8, Michael Floyd ranks 13th in points per game (17.3) and seventh in receiving yards (88.6) per game.
  • Since these teams last met in Week 10, Russell Wilson leads the league in touchdown passes (21), attempts per touchdown (9.0) and points per game (28.8).
  • Arizona has allowed just one quarterback to reach 20 points in a game this season (Andy Dalton, 22) the fewest in the league.
  • Seattle running backs are averaging 89 rushing yards per game in games that weren't started by Thomas Rawls.
  • Arizona allows just 66.3 rushing yards per game to running backs, the second fewest in the league.


Trust: Carson Palmer (has been a Gibraltar as a floor play and Seattle has struggled against upper tier quarterback play this season), Doug Baldwin (the slot is the lesser of all evils when attacking Arizona through the air and Seattle will be forced to throw often. It also helps that Baldwin is scorching hot)


Bust: Seattle Backfield (without the benefit of game script, this isn’t a situation to touch), Tyler Lockett (he should find the attention of Patrick Peterson the most often)


Reasonable Return: Russell Wilson (this is an entirely different offense than when these teams last played, but on the road against this defense is a tall task in reaching a ceiling), Larry Fitzgerald (he has the best individual matchup inside while both Michael Floyd and John Brown move around equal amounts to avoid Richard Sherman), Michael Floyd/John Brown (as mentioned, neither stays in one place for the bulk of their snaps, but Floyd has been the best of the group), Jermaine Kearse (with Lockett expected to see Peterson, by default Kearse will have some opportunities slide his way), David Johnson (both coaches have been adamant about playing their starters here, but Johnson is the one guy that Arizona should use kid’s glove with)


Minnesota vs. Green Bay

Vikings @ Packers
3 Spread -3
21.5 Team O/U 24.5
61.6 Plays/Gm 65.4
62.7 Opp. Plays/Gm 64.3
48.4% Rush % 41.8%
51.6% Pass % 58.2%
40.9% Opp. Rush % 40.7%
59.1% Opp. Pass % 59.3%


  • Adrian Peterson has had 100 or more rushing yards and a touchdown in five games, the most in the league.
  • Peterson has a rushing touchdown in seven consecutive games against the Packers.
  • Since their Week 7 bye, Green Bay ranks 21st against the run (116.9 yards per game) and 27th in yards allowed per carry (4.5 yards).
  • Teddy Bridgewater has just three top-12 scoring weeks, the fewest of all quarterbacks to start every game this season.
  • Since that bye, Aaron Rodgers averages just 226.6 passing yards per game, 24th in the league and just 5.9 yards per attempt, 33rd.
  • After completing 68.1 percent of his passes through six games, Rodgers has completed just 56.4 percent since.
  • Eddie Lacy played 62.5 percent of the snaps last week, his highest total since Week 1.
  • After allowing 173 rushing yards in Week 13, Minnesota has allowed 94 rushing yards per game, the eighth fewest in the league.


Trust: Adrian Peterson (Minnesota was an ultimate letdown when these teams last played, but remain in a good spot on paper to keep Peterson heavily involved against a sputtering Packer offense)


Bust: Teddy Bridgewater (he’s not asked to do a lot regularly and on the road in Week 17 isn’t a spot where you want to chase that happening), Eddie Lacy (his small resurgence started in this matchup earlier in the season, but the Packer offensive line is wrecked at the moment), Randall Cobb (strictly a WR3 play at best)


Reasonable Return: Aaron Rodgers (he’s been inefficient for the first time in his career which has made more of a low end QB1 ceiling play with a streamer floor and this offensive line is a mess), James Jones (matched a season-high with 11 targets in the first meeting and has been the most effective receiver for the Packers all season), Kyle Rudolph (was a mismatch in the first meeting, but the target floor is very low)


Context Key:


Trust = Set him in your lineups this week

Bust = Player to underperform season average

Reasonable Return = On par with seasonal average



Rich Hribar
Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.