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The Worksheet

The Worksheet: Week 4

by Rich Hribar
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Three weeks are in the books as we reach the bye week season, so make sure no Patriots or Titans are in your lineups this week. We’re starting to see tangible trends developing and some early noise start to fall to the small sample size wayside.

 

As usual, this post isn’t intended to be a linear start/sit guide, so use proper context on the players mentioned in the personal player section. As the author, I would highlight that the player section is simply the vehicle to provide 125-plus total facts on the games and the game by game data splits tables. Those two sections have a lot more actionable value when applied properly with your own initial thoughts on games and lineup situations, so take matters into your own hands where you can. All lines are taken from BetUs. Without further hindrance, let’s dive into the Week 4 games.

 

Editor's Note: For updated rankings, fantasy news columns, IDP, injury analysis, dynasty and much more, check out the Rotoworld Season Pass.

 

Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh

 

Ravens @ Steelers
-2.5 Spread 2.5
23 Team O/U 20.5
64.7 Plays/Gm 58.3
66.7 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.0
34.0% Rush % 41.1%
66.0% Pass % 58.9%
37.5% Opp. Rush % 38.6%
62.5% Opp. Pass % 61.4%

 

  • Le'Veon Bell has five or more receptions in his past three games against Baltimore.
  • In Bell's first game back; he played 95.2 percent (60) of the offensive snaps, the highest percentage any back played for their team this past week.
  • Baltimore has allowed just two runs of 10 or more yards, fewest on the season. They allowed the third-fewest all of 2014.
  • Of the 42 quarterbacks that attempted at least 100 passes last seasons, Mike Vick had the lowest completion percentage at 52.9 percent (64-121) and lowest adjusted yards per attempt at 4.7 yards.
  • Joe Flacco threw multiple touchdowns in all three meetings against the Steelers last season.
  • With Crockett Gillmore dealing with a calf injury, Maxx Williams played 45 snaps and has seen seven targets.
  • Steve Smith has been targeted on 36.5 percent of his routes, the second-highest in the league behind Julio Jones (38.4 percent). The next highest on Baltimore is Gillmore at 16.9 percent of his routes.
  • The past two weeks have been the first time in Smith's career that he's had back-to-back games with double-digit receptions.
  • Justin Forsett carried 33 times for 134 yards with no scores in the three meetings between these teams a year ago.
  • The Ravens have allowed just 30 receiving yards to tight ends this season, fewest in the league.

 

Trust: Joe Flacco (even on Thursday Night and post-Nick Foles debacle, I’m not running away from targeting the Steelers’ pass defense weekly), Steve Smith (target vacuum by necessity against a subpar back end), Antonio Brown (I have no clue what type of Mike Vick we’ll see, but Pittsburgh will get touches for Brown)

 

Bust: Heath Miller, Justin Forsett (woes date back to late last season and not catching passes or seeing goal line opportunities), Mike Vick (played poorly in a far inferior environment a year ago, so that may not matter, but on a short week I don’t see how you roll him out in lineups)

 

Reasonable Return: Le’Veon Bell (expecting limited rushing stats, but always has a floor with his receiving ability), Crockett Gillmore (if he’s ready to go on a short week, otherwise swap in Maxx Williams), Kamar Aiken (Baltimore will need to attack Pittsburgh’s secondary and Smith will be drawing plenty of attention)

 

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New York (AFC) vs. Miami

 

Jets @ Dolphins
-2.5 Spread 2.5
21.5 Team O/U 20
65.7 Plays/Gm 62.7
64.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 66.0
40.1% Rush % 28.7%
59.9% Pass % 71.3%
47.4% Opp. Rush % 52.5%
52.6% Opp. Pass % 47.5%

 

  • Ryan Tannehill has just one top-15 scoring week in five complete games facing the Jets.
  • Rishard Matthews ranks fifth in yards per targets (11.4 yards) and fourth in points per target (2.62).
  • Jarvis Landry is just one of four receivers to have eight receptions in every game so far, joining Julian Edelman, Julio Jones and Antonio Brown.
  • Miami ranks 30th in rushing points per attempt at .404 points. The Jets are allowing the second fewest rushing points per attempt at .330 points.
  • The Jets are allowing just .214 points per play, lowest mark in the league.
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick is 9-30 for 208 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions on passes 15 or more yards in the air.
  • Fitzpatrick's fantasy weeks so far: QB20, QB21, QB20.

 

Trust: Brandon Marshall (outside of Brent Grimes, this Miami secondary is a weekly target)

 

Bust: Lamar Miller (there are little to no positive signs here for Miller turning it around before the bye), Ryan Tannehill, Rishard Matthews (volume has been there and could be again, but this matchup is rough)

 

Reasonable Return: Jarvis Landry (you know where the floor is here), Chris Ivory (Miami’s front has woefully underperformed), Eric Decker (if he’s back, he returns in a good spot), Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jordan Cameron (the receivers should struggle in this one against the Jets corners, forcing action his way)

 

New York (NFC) vs. Buffalo

 

Giants @ Bills
6 Spread -6
20 Team O/U 27
63.0 Plays/Gm 61.0
69.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 71.7
41.3% Rush % 53.0%
58.7% Pass % 47.0%
31.3% Opp. Rush % 24.2%
68.8% Opp. Pass % 75.8%

 

  • Through three games, just 14 of the Giants 78 (17.9%) rush attempts have gone for over five yards. Eli Manning has two of those and Dwayne Harris has one.
  • Buffalo sees just 17.3 rush attempts per game, lowest in the league.
  • 81.5 percent of the yards against the Bills have been through the air, second-highest split towards passing in the league.
  • The Giants have just one turnover on 30 possessions (three percent), lowest percentage in the league.
  • The Giants are tied for sixth in the league with 11 red zone trips, but are last in the league in red zone touchdown rate (27.3 percent), scoring just three touchdowns.
  • The Bills are third in the league in points per play (.546), but 30th in red zone opportunities per game at 2.0.
  • They have seven touchdowns outside of the red zone, which leads the league. They had just nine such scoring plays all of 2014.
  • Tyrod Taylor has completed 85.2 percent (51 of 62) of his throws within 15 yards, the highest completion percentage of any quarterback with 40 or more such attempts.
  • Taylor has thrown a touchdown pass once every 11.1 pass attempts, which is third in the league only behind Carson Palmer (9.8 attempts) and Aaron Rodgers (9.1).
  • Percy Harvin leads all wide receivers in catch rate at 88.9 percent (16 of 18 targets) and has four or more receptions in three consecutive games for the first time since 2011.
  • Karlos Williams leads all running backs with at least 20 carries in yards per attempt (7.8), and rushing fantasy points per attempt (1.53).
  • New York is allowing 39.8 yards per opponent's drive, highest in the league.

 

Trust: Tyrod Taylor, Karlos Williams, Charles Clay (usage growing and the Giants have allowed the TE5, TE12 and TE6 through three weeks)

 

Bust: Eli Manning (has been playing his best football over the past year plus, but on the road in a tough spot here), Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams, Larry Donnell, Rueben Randle (finally was involved and even maximized those opportunities, but not expecting a rollover)

 

Reasonable Return: Odell Beckham (expecting the Giants to be limited, but you’re not running away from him), Percy Harvin and Sammy Watkins (this is a great spot for the Bills’ offense altogether, but the volume isn’t here for high ceiling as I’d prefer to play Taylor over his targets), Shane Vereen (no receptions a week ago, but the script is expected to be much different this week)

 

Carolina vs. Tampa Bay

 

Panthers @ Buccaneers
-3 Spread 3
21.5 Team O/U 17.5
67.3 Plays/Gm 59.3
70.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.3
48.5% Rush % 45.5%
51.5% Pass % 54.5%
32.2% Opp. Rush % 51.2%
67.8% Opp. Pass % 48.8%

 

  • Mike Evans played 84 percent of the snaps last weekend and saw 17 targets. He was targeted on 54.8 percent of his routes, the highest total for any receiver in a game so far this season (minimum 15 routes).
  • The downside there is Evans' 35 percent catch rate ranks dead last of all 85 players with 15 or more targets.
  • Evans totaled just seven receptions for 50 yards and a score in his two games facing Carolina a season ago. Vincent Jackson totaled 10 receptions for 106 yards in those two games.
  • Jameis Winston was 2-12 for 31 yards and an interception on third down last week.
  • Winston has a 51.5 percent completion rate on throws within 15 yards, the lowest mark in the league.
  • Tampa Bay split the backfield snaps last week nearly down the middle, with Doug Martin playing 31 to Charles Sims' 30. The prior week when they led for the majority of the game, Martin had 59.1 percent to Sims' 40.9 percent.
  • Martin is last in points-per-touch (.42) out of all backs with at least 20 touches.
  • Just 23.2 percent of the runs against Carolina have gone for five yards or more, lowest mark in the league.
  • Cam Newton has three of the five Panthers’ carries inside of the 5-yard line so far, Jonathan Stewart has just one.
  • Derek Anderson started both games against Tampa Bay in 2014, but in those games, Greg Olsen was the TE2 and TE1 overall those weeks with 18 receptions for 193 yards and a touchdown.

 

Trust: Cam Newton (exploiting early season schedule and running like crazy), Greg Olsen

 

Bust: Vincent Jackson (he’s the exact same player, seeing the same usage he was a year ago), Jameis Winston (QB16 or lower all three weeks so far), Doug Martin

 

Reasonable Return: Jonathan Stewart (has had three incredible game scripts and posted identical lines every week. Tampa Bay was just roasted by Alfred Blue so I’m holding a candle in the tunnel here, but it’s dimming quickly), Ted Ginn (believe it or not, but he’s a weekly WR4/flex option), Mike Evans (boom/bust WR2 with heavy volume, but I’m hesitant in anticipating ceiling games for receivers versus Carolina), Charles Sims (expect him to see similar snap splits to last week and multiple targets)

 

Oakland vs. Chicago

 

Raiders @ Bears
-3 Spread 3
23.5 Team O/U 20.5
63.0 Plays/Gm 59.7
67.7 Opp. Plays/Gm 56.0
34.4% Rush % 49.2%
65.6% Pass % 50.8%
34.5% Opp. Rush % 51.8%
65.5% Opp. Pass % 48.2%

 

  • Amari Cooper's 20 receptions and 290 receiving yards are an Oakland rookie franchise record through three weeks. They're the sixth and fifth best marks for any Raider receiver through three weeks ever.
  • Cooper's 290 receiving yards are the fourth highest mark for any rookie receiver through three weeks and the most since Anquan Boldin's 378 in 2003.
  • Cooper's target per route percentage each week: 20.0 percent, 25.6 percent and 31.0 percent.
  • Derek Carr is 20-28 for 246 yards and two touchdowns on third down this season.
  • Last week was the first time in 49 games that Matt Forte failed to record a reception, which was the longest active streak for a running back coming in.  The record now belongs to Jamaal Charles at 36 games.
  • Forte leads the league with 45 first-half rushing attempts, but has just 17 after halftime on the season.
  • The Bears have scored on just three drives (all field goals) led by Jimmy Clausen, with 13 punts.
  • Through three weeks, Oakland has allowed 21 receptions, 305 yards and five touchdowns to tight ends and the TE2, TE1 and TE2 overall each week.
  • In his one start with Clausen a year ago, Alshon Jeffery was the WR13, catching six of 15 targets for 72 yards and a score.

 

Trust: Martellus Bennett (Clausen isn’t Flacco or even Josh McCown, but Bennett isn’t Crockett Gillmore or Gary Barnidge), Latavius Murray (has quietly been one of the better running back values from the summer so far), Amari Cooper, Derek Carr (QB5 and QB8 the past two weeks against a team allowing the most passing points per attempt in the league)

 

Bust: Jimmy Clausen (Oakland is the only team to allow a top-12 quarterback in all three games, but even this week, don’t do it)

 

Reasonable Return: Alshon Jeffery (it’s not going to be pretty, but the volume and matchup still dictate optimism), Matt Forte (his ceiling is sapped because the Bears can’t score heavily with Clausen and Oakland has played well up front), Michael Crabtree

 

Kansas City vs. Cincinnati

 

Chiefs @ Bengals
4 Spread -4
20 Team O/U 24
63.3 Plays/Gm 64.0
70.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 61.3
41.1% Rush % 51.0%
58.9% Pass % 49.0%
35.6% Opp. Rush % 32.1%
64.5% Opp. Pass % 67.9%

 

  • Andy Dalton has now thrown multiple touchdowns in five consecutive regular season games, longest streak of his career and the top current active streak.
  • Gio Bernard out-snapped Jeremy Hill 51 to 26 Sunday.
  • The most damaging part of Jeremy Hill's miscues and role loss is that Cincinnati has trailed for just seven snaps so far, the second-fewest in the league.
  • Cincinnati has run 53 plays in the red zone this season, most in the league.
  • Dalton already has 25 red zone pass attempts through three weeks. He had just 55 last season and his career high is 74 red zone attempts in 2012.
  • Of those 25 attempts, seven have been to Tyler Eifert, six to A.J. Green and five to Marvin Jones.
  • A.J. Green's 13.4 yards per target leads all receivers with 20 or more targets.
  • The Chiefs have allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers (nine) and have already allowed multiple top-20 scoring receivers in all three games.
  • Kansas City has converted just five of 30 (16.7 percent) third downs into a first down.
  • Jamaal Charles is first in the league in rushing points per attempt (.98) of all backs with 25 or more carries.
  • Jeremy Maclin’s 141 receiving yards were the most by a Kanas City receiver since Donnie Avery’s 141 yards in Week 3 of 2013.

 

Trust: Jamaal Charles, Andy Dalton, A.J. Green

 

Bust: Jeremy Maclin (Steve Smith roasted the Bengals, but I don’t buy that becoming a trend and Kansas City didn’t involve Maclin until it was late last week), Alex Smith (low projected point total on the road versus a good defense in a short week), Jeremy Hill (until we start seeing him earn the trust of the staff back and trust in his abilities, he’s a hard play)

 

Reasonable Return: Travis Kelce, Tyler Eifert (red zone viability is in play weekly), Marvin Jones (Kansas City is hemorrhaging yardage to receiver so far, but the target count is volatile), Gio Bernard (snaps and workload are all lined up, but are the scoring opportunities coming next?)

 

Houston vs. Atlanta

 

Texans @ Falcons
6.5 Spread -6.5
20 Team O/U 27
80.3 Plays/Gm 69.7
65.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 60.7
37.3% Rush % 42.6%
62.7% Pass % 57.4%
43.6% Opp. Rush % 33.0%
56.4% Opp. Pass % 67.0%

 

  • Not only are his 34 receptions the most ever through three weeks, but Julio Jones is the first receiver since Harold Jackson in 1972 to open the season with three straight games of 125 or more receiving yards.
  • Jones has a reception on 19.1 percent of his snaps, highest mark in the league.
  • After just 12 red zone targets in all of 2014, Jones already has eight red zone targets, which leads the league.
  • Atlanta was 26th in red zone plays in 2014 (7.4 per game). Through three weeks they are fourth with 12 per game.
  • Matt Ryan has at least 250 passing yards in 10 consecutive games, longest in team history and longest active streak for any quarterback. The next closest is Drew Brees at five.
  • After being targeted eight times on 32 routes in Week 1, Roddy White has seen just one target on 73 routes the past two weeks.
  • Devonta Freeman had 14 carries of five or more yards last week on 30 attempts. He had just four carries for five or more yards on 22 carries coming into the week.
  • Alfred Blue was second in the league last week with 12 carries of five plus yards on 321 attempts after seeing just 14 carries over the opening two weeks.
  • Ryan Mallet's 5.2 yards per pass attempt rank 36th out of 39 quarterbacks with 25 or more attempts.
  • DeAndre Hopkins leads all receivers with 152 routes run.
  • Houston is the only team in the league that has run at least 70 plays in every game this season.

 

Trust: Julio Jones, Matt Ryan, DeAndre Hopkins (target monster that moves around enough to get free from Desmond Trufant, could see the same treatment Odell Beckham has seen in the second half of Week 2)

 

Bust: Alfred Blue (Atlanta showed last week their run defense was still in question, but Blue’s usage has been completely game flow related and Houston is a sizable road dog here), Nate Washington (eight targets or more every week and just one top-50 finish), Cecil Shorts (eight targets or more every week and no weeks as a top-40 option), Ryan Mallet, Roddy White

 

Reasonable Return: Devonta Freeman (I wouldn’t expect a repeat this week on the ground against the Houston front, but the passing game floor has him in play for a top-15 play again), Leonard Hankerson

 

Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis

 

Jaguars @ Colts
8.5 Spread -8.5
20 Team O/U 28
62.3 Plays/Gm 61.7
68.7 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.7
39.6% Rush % 34.6%
60.4% Pass % 65.4%
40.3% Opp. Rush % 47.1%
59.7% Opp. Pass % 52.9%

 

  • The Colts won both of the matchups between these two teams a year ago by a combined score of 67-20.
  • The Colts have had 16 first-half possessions this season and scored on one of them.
  • Andrew Luck is just 8-25 for 236 yards with one touchdown and five interceptions on throws 15 or more yards downfield.
  • Andre Johnson has seen his target per route totals of 21.7 percent Week 1 and 22.6 percent Week 2 fall to 4.2 percent in Week 3.
  • After being targeted just once through two weeks on 41 routes, Coby Fleener was targeted six times on 30 routes this past week.
  • Indianapolis has nine turnovers on 28 drives (32.1 percent), highest rate in the league.
  • Blake Bortles has attempted the most passes in the league of 15 or more yards, at 32. He's completed 11 for 373 yards with two scores and an interception.
  • After seeing just 15 percent of the team targets Week 1, Allen Robinson has seen 36 and 27 percent the following two weeks.
  • Jacksonville ranks 31st in rushing points per attempt at .373 points.

 

Trust: Andrew Luck (definitely hasn’t played well, but still buying him as a big home favorite), Frank Gore (huge yardage days are unlikely, but this offense is capable of setting up multiple layups like they did a week ago), Donte Moncrief (two top-12 weeks and a top-36 one through three weeks), T.Y. Hilton

 

Bust: T.J. Yeldon (there are still better days coming for Yeldon and his three down usage, but game script has been the bugaboo to this point and doesn’t project to be good again), Andre Johnson (release him into the wild), Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen (if both guys play, neither become options. If Allen misses, bump up Fleener to fringe starter)

 

Reasonable Return: Blake Bortles (has played better from a fantasy stance than a real one, QB10 and QB16 the past two weeks), Allen Robinson (Vontae Davis has had mortal moments early in the season, but still not enough to make me thrust Robinson up a tier), Allen Hurns (similar situation as last week, Robinson will getting the best attention and the volume will be high)

 

Philadelphia vs. Washington

 

Eagles @ Washington
-3 Spread 3
24.5 Team O/U 21.5
63.7 Plays/Gm 68.3
71.7 Opp. Plays/Gm 54.7
37.7% Rush % 45.9%
62.3% Pass % 54.2%
39.1% Opp. Rush % 37.8%
60.9% Opp. Pass % 62.2%

 

  • Pierre Garcon has topped 75 receiving yards just three times over his past 15 games played.
  • Matt Jones played 33.8 percent (33) of the Washington snaps in Week 3 to Alfred Morris' 15.6 percent (12).
  • Jones is averaging .83 points per touch on 39 touches while Morris is at .45 on 51 touches.
  • Jordan Reed has been the TE6 all three weeks this season.
  • Philadelphia has allowed just one tight end to score since the start of last season.
  • Jordan Matthews has 30 targets while all of the other Eagles wide receivers have accounted for 32.
  • Nelson Agholor ranks last in points per target (.63) of all 64 receivers with double-digit targets.
  • Zach Ertz ranks last in points per target (1.02) of all 27 tight ends with double-digit targets.
  • DeMarco Murray's longest run through two weeks was nine yards. Ryan Mathews had three runs of 11-plus yards last weekend.
  • Sam Bradford was just 3-10 for 35 yards on third down last week, bringing his season line to 11-29 for 101 yards, with four first downs on third down.

Trust: Jordan Matthews (he’s the only piece to feel good about having a ceiling that comes with a usable floor)

 

Bust: DeMarco Murray (coming off of injury, Ryan Mathews playing well and now the loss of Andrew Gardner), Ryan Mathews (even if he takes carries away, Washington is allowing just .460 rushing points per attempt, the 7th lowest in the league), Sam Bradford (highest scoring week so far is QB19), Alfred Morris, Matt Jones (Jones looked like the leader last week but may have lost that gap with a goal line fumble. Philly has been stout versus the run, allowing a league-low .311 rushing points per attempt)

 

Reasonable Return: Darren Sproles (has become the most trustworthy part of this backfield, four receptions every week), Pierre Garcon, Jordan Reed (if Alonso and Kendricks miss again, get him going everywhere), Kirk Cousins (some tangible good moments mixed with one or two cringe-worthy ones, the Kirk Cousins way)

 

Cleveland vs. San Diego

 

Browns @ Chargers
7.5 Spread -7.5
17.5 Team O/U 27
59.3 Plays/Gm 67.3
65.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 54.7
40.5% Rush % 41.1%
59.6% Pass % 58.9%
49.0% Opp. Rush % 50.6%
51.0% Opp. Pass % 49.4%

 

  • Travis Benjamin is the first Browns’ receiver to catch a touchdown pass in all three games to open the season since Andre' Davis in 2002.
  • For the second straight week, Duke Johnson played more snaps (40) than Isaiah Crowell (33).
  • Keenan Allen has played 99.5 percent of the San Diego snaps, highest mark for any wide receiver in the league.
  • Allen had 41 percent of the team targets in Week 1 and 45 percent this past week. The only other receiver to have multiple games with at least 40 percent of his team's targets is Antonio Brown.
  • Melvin Gordon is eighth in the league in first-half rushing attempts with 27 and 25th in the league with 17 second-half carries.
  • San Diego has run 88.1% (178/202) of their plays this season while trailing, highest rate in the league.
  • The Browns have allowed a top-10 back and a 90-yard rusher every week so far.
  • Cleveland is allowing 4.7 red zone trips per game, 30th in the league.

 

Trust: Melvin Gordon (potential game script, matchup all lining up to make this a week he hits), Keenan Allen (Brandon Marshall and Amari Cooper each have done work against Cleveland)

 

Bust: Isaiah Crowell (big road dog with a low team total is never an endearing quality for a banger in a committee), Stevie Johnson (a few touchdowns have masked consistent low volume), Travis Benjamin (hyper-efficient on low volume then inefficient on heavy volume, I still don’t trust what is going on here), Ladarius Green

 

Reasonable Return: Philip Rivers (lack of vertical passing is a concern, but a solid home favorite), Duke Johnson (has been progressively seeing more time and receptions are coming), Danny Woodhead (this spot sets up for Gordon to thrive, but if Woodhead is the red zone worker as he’s been, there will be scoring chances here)

 

Minnesota vs. Denver

 

Vikings @ Broncos
6.5 Spread -6.5
17.5 Team O/U 24.5
56.7 Plays/Gm 67.0
69.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 61.0
52.9% Rush % 32.8%
47.1% Pass % 67.2%
39.9% Opp. Rush % 38.3%
60.1% Opp. Pass % 61.8%

 

  • Peyton Manning is averaging just 5.9 yards per attempt. His lowest season-long total is 6.5 yards per attempt in his rookie season.
  • Denver is averaging just 4.3 yards per play on offense, lowest in the league.
  • Denver is also allowing just 4.4 yards per play on defense, lowest in the league.
  • Opposing offenses have converted just six of 32 third downs against Denver through three weeks, lowest percentage in the league.
  • Owen Daniels is last in yards per target at 3.2 yards for all tight ends with double-digit targets.
  • Just 24 of Teddy Bridgewater's 74 attempts have come 10 yards or further downfield.
  • Bridgewater's fantasy weeks so far have been QB28, QB20 and QB33. Opposing quarterbacks versus Denver so far have been QB35, QB33 and QB25.
  • There have been just 16 100-yard rushing games through three weeks. Only Adrian Peterson has done it twice.
  • 49.1 percent of the Minnesota yards are on the ground, highest reliance on the run in the league.

 

Trust: Emmanuel Sanders (so much for the step back in production, on pace for 117-1,275-11 and gets the better of cornerback matchups)

 

Bust: Teddy Bridgewater (the Denver pass rush against the Minny line and the Bronco defensive backs against the Viking receivers isn’t inspiring), Mike Wallace, Charles Johnson, Owen Daniels (thoroughly convinced his legs are made of concrete at this stage and will see Harrison Smith), C.J. Anderson (held a snap share lead last week, but this offense is built to for intermediate passing to be its run game at this stage of the season)

 

Reasonable Return: Adrian Peterson (has been there only offense, but this matchup is rough on paper and could force Minnesota into playing into their weakness), Demaryius Thomas (you’re never fading him, but I prefer Sanders this week), Peyton Manning (the weekly ceiling just isn’t here), Kyle Rudolph

 

Green Bay vs. San Francisco

 

Packers @ 49ers
-8.5 Spread 8.5
27.5 Team O/U 20
61.7 Plays/Gm 66.0
64.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 58.7
49.2% Rush % 50.0%
50.8% Pass % 50.0%
39.4% Opp. Rush % 44.9%
60.6% Opp. Pass % 55.1%

 

  • San Francisco has allowed at least 40 points in back to back games for the third time ever and for the first time since 2006. They've never allowed 40 points in three straight games in team history.
  • Colin Kaepernick's 67 passing yards last week were his lowest in his 42 games as a starter.
  • Kaepernick had the first four interception game on fewer than 20 pass attempts since Luke McCown in 2011.
  • After a 26 carry, 168 rushing yard performance Week 1, Carlos Hyde has 28 carries for 94 yards.
  • The 49ers have 22 possessions over the past two weeks with an average point differential of them trailing by 21.5 points per drive.
  • Aaron Rodgers' 10 passing touchdowns are the most in his career through three weeks.
  • Randall Cobb leads all receivers in touchdowns inside of the 10-yard line in 2014 with eight. He's tied with Larry Fitzgerald for tops already in 2015 with four.
  • The 49ers have allowed 15 pass plays of 20 or more yards, tied with Oakland for the most in the league.

 

Trust: Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb, Eddie Lacy, James Jones (get them all in everywhere)

 

Bust: Carlos Hyde (has become what we thought he’d be, dependent on game script weekly and this week sets up to be poor), Torrey Smith (three or fewer targets in two of three games), Vernon Davis

 

Reasonable Return: Colin Kaepernick (we have seen him stack late game points in a similar spot Week 2 against a defense that will allow yardage and Alex Smith do the same in the second half Monday, but that’s a risky proposition to play off of), Anquan Boldin

 

St. Louis vs. Arizona

 

Rams @ Cardinals
6.5 Spread -6.5
17.5 Team O/U 24.5
50.0 Plays/Gm 59.7
67.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 60.7
38.0% Rush % 50.3%
62.0% Pass % 49.7%
45.1% Opp. Rush % 42.3%
55.0% Opp. Pass % 57.7%

 

  • Larry Fitzgerald converted zero of his 12 red zone targets last season for TDs. Has already turned four of five this season into scores.
  • Chris Johnson has carried on 58.4 percent of his snaps, the highest mark of all running backs in the league.
  • 59.3 percent of the runs against the Rams have been stopped for two yards or less, highest rate in the league.
  • Arizona is the only team in the league that has yet to run a play while trailing this season.
  • St. Louis is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 81.6 percent of their passes, highest in the league.
  • The Rams’ Week 3 backfield split was Benny Cunningham 30 snaps, Tre Mason 23 and Todd Gurley 14. Touches were Mason 10, Gurley seven and Cunningham three.
  • The Rams have scored a touchdown on just four of 32 possessions (12.5 percent), lowest percentage in the league.
  • Arizona is allowing just 23.9 yards per drive, lowest in the league.

 

Trust: Larry Fitzgerald (still one of the premier talents at the position with functional quarterback play)

 

Bust: Chris Johnson, All Rams running backs (who knows what will go on here for usage and the matchup is bad), Nick Foles (couldn’t exploit a light secondary at home, now gets a stiff one on the road)

 

Reasonable Return: Carson Palmer (the Rams have been generous for quarterback efficiency, but held their own on the fantasy side of allowing points. After facing three layups and against this pass rush, this offense will have to work a bit this week), John Brown, Jared Cook (has had monster weeks against the Cardinals before, but hardly someone you can bank on)

 

Dallas vs. New Orleans

 

Cowboys @ Saints
n/a Spread n/a
n/a Team O/U n/a
62.3 Plays/Gm 67.3
61.7 Opp. Plays/Gm 59.3
41.2% Rush % 35.2%
58.8% Pass % 64.9%
39.5% Opp. Rush % 50.6%
60.5% Opp. Pass % 49.4%

 

  • Joseph Randle has a touch on 62.8 percent of his snaps, highest rate in the league, but has played just 41 percent of the offensive snaps, 34th of all running backs.
  • Randle started last week off with nine carries for 91 yards. He finished the game with 14 carries for 87 yards.
  • 97 percent of Lance Dunbar's points have been receiving, highest percentage of any top-30 scoring back.
  • Dunbar leads all backs in targets (23), receptions (21) and receiving yards (215) and points-per-touch (1.90) out of all backs with 20 or more touches.
  • Brandin Cooks has seven receptions for 123 yards in the fourth quarter this season, nine receptions for 67 yards outside of it.
  • Out of all players with 15 or more targets, Mark Ingram (94.1 percent) and Lance Dunbar (91.3 percent) have the two highest catch rates.

 

Trust: Mark Ingram (the only proven usable piece of this offense weekly has been a top-16 scorer every week and Dallas proved a week ago they are still suspect to being beat on the ground), Lance Dunbar (he’s been rock solid weekly)

 

Bust: Brandin Cooks (not a part of the base offense at any point of the season to date), Luke McCown (played adequately, but far from fantasy-usable in what was best case output, if Drew Brees plays, he’s a mid-QB2), C.J. Spiller (maybe as a flier if Brees plays, but there’s no one you can trust outside of Ingram in this backfield)

 

Reasonable Return: Jason Witten (the Jarvis Landry of fantasy tight ends, take your seven catches for 65 yards home with you), Joseph Randle (showed you the floor and the ceiling, but the touches are still there and Dallas will be running while they can), Terrance Williams (should see his targets spike back up as he trades Desmond Trufant for a team that has allowed splash plays to Louis Murphy and Ted Ginn in back-to-back weeks), Brandon Weeden (played well when things were on track then played himself into a poor environment, but the Saints have been forgiving)

 

Detroit vs. Seattle

 

Lions @ Seahawks
10 Spread -10
17 Team O/U 27
61.7 Plays/Gm 66.3
65.7 Opp. Plays/Gm 55.0
27.6% Rush % 43.2%
72.4% Pass % 56.8%
46.2% Opp. Rush % 49.7%
53.8% Opp. Pass % 50.3%

 

  • Seattle has just two offensive plays that have gone for 25 yards or longer, tied with San Francisco for the fewest in the league.
  • Detroit has allowed five receptions and a touchdown to all three starting tight ends they’ve faced so far.
  • The Seahawks are tied with the Bears and Rams for fewest offensive touchdowns at four.
  • The Lions are allowing 5.3 red zone trips per game, most in the league.
  • Detroit has just two runs of 10 yards or longer the season, last in the league.
  • Matt Stafford on third down this season is 14-29 for 144 yards with no touchdowns and four interceptions.
  • Stafford has attempted just 12 passes of 15 or more yards downfield, which ranks 23rd in the league. He ranked eighth in the league on such attempts last year with 108.
  • Detroit is averaging just 17 rush attempts and 45 yards on the ground per game, both the lowest in the league.
  • Eric Ebron leads all tight ends in routes run at 38.3 per game and is just one of four tight ends to be a top-12 scorer every week so far this season.
  • Theo Riddick is the RB11 overall, but of his 15-144-1 receiving line, 13-116-1 have come in the fourth quarter.

 

Trust: Jimmy Graham (the squeaky wheel was fed last week and should be again)

 

Bust: Matt Stafford, Ameer Abdullah, Joique Bell, (still rotating when Abdullah and Riddick should have clear roles), Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin

 

Reasonable Return: Russell Wilson (pass protection has been a major hindrance for maintaining drives), Marshawn Lynch, Calvin Johnson (has put in two workman-like games in tough matchups the past two weeks), Theo Riddick (huge road dogs, recent usage and projected script suggest Riddick will be involved late), Eric Ebron (ditto to Riddick)

 

Context Key:

 

Trust = Set him in your lineups this week

Bust = Player to underperform season average

Reasonable Return = On par with seasonal average

Rich Hribar
Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.