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The Worksheet

The Worksheet: Week 7

by Rich Hribar
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

We’re now knee deep in bye season and Week 7 has a lot of fantasy options on the shelf this week as the Packers, Broncos, Bears and Bengals are all off this week.

As for the token disclaimer, I encourage you use the game by game tables and data points in conjunction with your own information and thought process rather than carving the individual player diagnosis into a linear start/sit guide. With that out of the way, let’s hit all of the Week 7 games with a PPR light...


Seattle vs. San Francisco

Seahawks @ 49ers
-6 Spread 6
24 Team O/U 17.5
63.3 Plays/Gm 61.2
61.5 Opp. Plays/Gm 65.7
45.5% Rush % 46.3%
54.5% Pass % 53.7%
44.4% Opp. Rush % 39.3%
55.6% Opp. Pass % 60.7%


  • After scoring on just nine of 40 drives (22.5 percent, 31st in the league) over their first four games, San Francisco has scored on 11 of 20 of their possessions the past two weeks, fourth in the league.
  • Colin Kaepernick has thrown multiple interceptions in just six of his 51 career starts including the postseason. Three of those games have come facing the Seahawks.
  • In seven career starts facing the Seahawks, the Kaepernick-led 49ers are 2-5 as he's completed just 53.3 percent (88 of 165) of his passes in those games for an average of 160.1 passing yards per game with three touchdowns to nine interceptions total.
  • Kaepernick's 12.6 yards per attempt last week was his highest total in any career start.
  • Kaepernick's 26.7 completion rate (4-15) inside of the 10-yard line is last in the league of all quarterbacks with double digit attempts.
  • Anquan Boldin has 28 percent, 34.3 percent and 33.3 percent of the team targets over the past three weeks.
  • Seattle has already allowed 23 pass plays of 20+ yards this season after allowing 32 all of 2014 and 30 in 2013. 11 have been to opposing tight ends.
  • After playing just 60.3 percent, 54.4, and 62.7 percent of the snaps Weeks 1-3, Torrey Smith has played 94.0 percent, 72.1 and 88.1 percent over the past three weeks.
  • Smith has three receptions of 40 or more yards so far. He had only two all of 2014.
  • Carlos Hyde has rushed for more than 3.5 yards per carry just once over the past five weeks.
  • In his past three Thursday Night games, Russell Wilson has scored 20.3, 18.5 and 16.9 fantasy points.
  • Seattle has four red zone touchdowns on the season, last in the league.

Trust: Russell Wilson (he has just one top-10 scoring week so far, but San Francisco has struggled to limit passing games outside of Week 1)

Bust: Colin Kaepernick (improved the past two weeks and Seattle’s defense isn’t the mighty beast it’s been, but this is still a bad draw for the 49ers offensive line and receiving unit), Vernon Davis (it’s hard to square peg him into a round hole because the matchup looks advantageous), Carlos Hyde (the running back from Week 1 has been a ghost since),

Reasonable Return: Marshawn Lynch (49ers have been far more exploitable on the back end, but there should be scoring opportunities), Jimmy Graham (what a difference a week makes in perception of his season), Jermaine Kearse (San Francisco is giving up chunk yards through the air, making me feel more inclined to back Kearse over Baldwin this week), Doug Baldwin (I expect the Seattle passing game to get going a bit in this one, but after Graham and Kearse, there may not be enough left), Anquan Boldin (moves around enough to lead the team in targets again),  Torrey Smith (runs the majority of his routes where Cary Williams lines up)


Editor's Note: For updated rankings, fantasy news columns, IDP, injury analysis, dynasty and much more, check out the Rotoworld Season Pass.


Buffalo vs. Jacksonville (in London)

Bills @ Jaguars
-4.5 Spread 4.5
23 Team O/U 17.5
61.3 Plays/Gm 66.5
67.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.2
46.7% Rush % 35.1%
53.3% Pass % 64.9%
33.8% Opp. Rush % 43.5%
66.2% Opp. Pass % 56.5%


  • After averaging 33.3 points over the first three weeks, Buffalo has averaged just 15.0 points over the past three weeks.
  • 25 percent (15 of 60) of LeSean McCoy's rushing attempts have failed to reach the line of scrimmage, the highest rate in the league.
  • Charles Clay is the only tight end other than Greg Olsen to have multiple games on the season with at least 30 percent of his team's targets.
  • Opponents have converted 50 percent of their third down attempts against the Jaguars, most in the league.
  • Blake Bortles is the only quarterback to be a top-6 scorer in each of the past three weeks.
  • Allen Robinson has 488 receiving yards, but just 54 yards after the catch. His 434 yards at the catch are the third highest in the league.
  • Just 11.1 percent (nine of 81) of T.J. Yeldon's carries have resulted in a first down, better than only Charles Sims (10.8 percent) and Alfred Morris (10.6 percent).
  • Julius Thomas had his snap share jump form 50.8 percent to 72.8 percent last week and his target share go from 6.1 percent to 24.5 percent.


Trust: Charles Clay (with potentially no Sammy Watkins and Percy Harvin already out, will be the de facto lead option again)


Bust: Allen Robinson (Buffalo defends lead receivers strongly). T.J. Yeldon (questionable in health and performance to date coming in and Buffalo hasn’t allowed an individual rusher to reach 60 yards on the ground yet) , Robert Woods (even with the pieces in front of him limited recently, has seen 15 percent of the team targets just once)


Reasonable Return: Allen Hurns (the volume is still sketchy with Hurns, but the Bills have clamped lead options, but have been beaten by secondary ones every week), Julius Thomas (volume should be in his corner again), Blake Bortles (the points are aesthetically pleasing, but they’re still coming in and Buffalo has allowed multiple touchdown passes in every game except one), LeSean McCoy (don’t love the matchup, but the game script should be in his corner), Tyrod Taylor (if he goes, he’s there’s a clear floor he’s shown weekly, even with the Bills offense far from healthy as a whole)


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Cleveland vs. St. Louis

Browns @ Rams
5.5 Spread -5.5
17.5 Team O/U 23.5
66.7 Plays/Gm 54.2
67.5 Opp. Plays/Gm 66.4
37.8% Rush % 43.9%
62.2% Pass % 56.1%
44.7% Opp. Rush % 41.9%
55.3% Opp. Pass % 58.1%


  • Todd Gurley ranks 30th in rushing attempts (55) on the season, but is tied for second the league lead in runs of 20 or more yards with five.
  • Gurley is the first Rams running back to rush for 140 or more yards in back to back weeks since Steven Jackson in 2006.
  • Gurley leads all running backs in touch per snap rate at 61.1 percent.
  • The Rams run the football 65.6 percent of the time on first down, highest rate in the league. League average is 50.5 percent.
  • Nick Foles averages just 16.4 completions per game, last in the league.
  • Cleveland splits 30 carries up to Isaiah Crowell (11), Robert Turbin (10) and Duke Johnson (nine) last week for 97 yards.
  • Travis Benjamin has double digit targets in each of his past four games. Only DeAndre Hopkins (60), Keenan Allen (50), Demaryius Thomas (50) and Julio Jones (45) have more targets over that stretch.
  • Benjamin has topped 75 yards receiving in five games this season, tied for the most with Larry Fitzgerald and DeAndre Hopkins.
  • Gary Barnidge ranks second in the league with 231 receiving yards on third down and leads the league in third down touchdowns with four.
  • Cleveland is 31st in the league in red zone touchdown percentage at 36.8 percent.


Trust: Todd Gurley (heavy workload against one of league’s worst run defenses)


Bust: Isaiah Crowell (the Rams run defense is better than the bulk stats show and his workload has been compromised), Nick Foles (he’s been either way up or way down and I expect them to lean on the run here), Josh McCown (if they Browns can’t stop the run in this one, there could be low overall pass volume for the Browns compared to the past few weeks)


Reasonable Return: Duke Johnson (has been a top-30 running back four weeks in a row, but a top-20 one just once), Gary Barnidge (there’s going to be a low point when he doesn’t find the end zone and this could be the week, but you aren’t sitting him), Travis Benjamin (the lead receiver on a better than expected offense weekly)


Minnesota vs. Detroit

Vikings @ Lions
-3 Spread 3
23.5 Team O/U 20.5
61.4 Plays/Gm 67.2
63.6 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.0
47.6% Rush % 29.5%
52.4% Pass % 70.5%
39.3% Opp. Rush % 47.1%
60.7% Opp. Pass % 52.9%


  • Stefon Diggs led the Vikings receivers in snaps (59) last week.
  • Over their past two games played, Diggs has 25.3 percent of the team targets and leads the Vikings in receptions (12) and receiving yardage (191).
  • Teddy Bridgewater ranks 28th of all quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts in passing points per attempt at .308. The average for that group is .428 passing points per attempt.
  • Bridgewater is the only quarterback to face Detroit this season and not finish in the front half of weekly scoring (QB20 in Week 2).
  • Adrian Peterson has carried 101 times for 432 yards and three touchdowns this season. The Lions have carried 119 times for 399 yards and two touchdowns as a team.
  • Last week was the just the second time (17 games) in Peterson's career that he's gone over 25 carries and failed to rush for 100 yards.
  • Detroit is allowing 5.0 red zone trips and 2.8 red zone touchdowns per game, most in the league.
  • Out of the top-40 scorers overall, Golden Tate is last in points per target (1.22).
  • Matt Stafford's past five starts against the Viking has been QB10, QB19, QB24, QB20 and QB16. That QB16 week in Week 2 is the best finish a quarterback has had against Minnesota all season.
  • In that Week 2 game, Calvin Johnson was targeted on 32.1 percent of the Lions passes, a season high.


Trust: Adrian Peterson (last week reminded us that the Viking offensive line is wishy-washy, but Detroit has given up big yardage off and on against the run)


Bust: Golden Tate (even with a touchdown last week was still just the WR26 for the week), all Detroit running backs, Teddy Bridgewater (hasn’t been higher than QB18 in any game and not being asked to do much lifting, something he likely won’t have to do again), Mike Wallace (he’s has one moment and now has Diggs coming for a piece of the overall targets), Kyle Rudolph (if he doesn’t score, you aren’t either)


Reasonable Return: Calvin Johnson (it will have to be workmanlike against Xavier Rhodes like it was in Week 2), Matt Stafford (look for a mid-QB2 week and not what you got last week) , Stefon Diggs (even if Charles Johnson returns, he’s been too good to put back into the bottle. Issue will be overall volume of this offense and lack of touchdown opportunities)


Houston vs. Miami

Texans @ Dolphins
4 Spread -4
20 Team O/U 24
75.7 Plays/Gm 61.8
65.8 Opp. Plays/Gm 67.0
36.6% Rush % 31.4%
63.4% Pass % 68.6%
43.3% Opp. Rush % 49.3%
56.7% Opp. Pass % 50.7%


  • Houston has seven touchdowns in the fourth quarter, most in the NFL. They also have just seven touchdowns outside of the fourth quarter.
  • Since returning, 82.3 percent of Arian Foster's fantasy points have been receiving.
  • Foster ranks last of all 44 running backs with at least 40 carries in rushing points per attempt at .231 points per carry. The average from that group is .596 rushing points per attempt.
  • DeAndre Hopkins' 52 receptions and 726 receiving yards are the most ever by a Houston receiver through six games. Andre Johnson had 47 catches in 2006 through six games and 629 yards in 2008.
  • Brian Hoyer has been a top-12 fantasy scorer each of the past three weeks despite starting just once.
  • Lamar Miller had a touch on 44.7 percent of his snaps last week, his highest total on the season. His season total was 25.9 percent heading into the game.
  • Jordan Cameron ranks 40th in catch rate (41.7 percent), 36th in yards per target (5.6 yards) and 40th in points per target (1.14) of all tight ends in the top-40 in scoring.
  • Rishard Matthews was still second on the team in snaps last week out of the bye with 63. Kenny Stills came in third with 28, followed by Greg Jennings (nine) and Devante Parker (six).
  • Matthews now has nearly as many points (77.3) as Jarvis Landry (77.4) despite having 19 fewer targets and 15 fewer touches on the season/
  • Ryan Tannehill has finished one week above QB18 on the season.


Trust: DeAndre Hopkins


Bust: Jordan Cameron (not one top-12 scoring week despite seven or more targets in four of five games), Ryan Tannehill


Reasonable Return: Lamar Miller (a promising start in a change of climate, but the matchup was also picture perfect last week), Arian Foster (making his living through the pass game only at the moment, but Miami’s one week run defense may prove to be a mirage), Brian Hoyer, Jarvis Landry, Rishard Matthews


New Orleans vs Indianapolis

Saints @ Colts
4.5 Spread -4.5
23.5 Team O/U 28
68.7 Plays/Gm 65.5
69.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 67.3
36.2% Rush % 35.6%
63.8% Pass % 64.4%
45.1% Opp. Rush % 42.3%
54.9% Opp. Pass % 57.7%


  • Frank Gore is the first Colts running back to rush for 70 yards in back to back games since Vick Ballard in 2012.
  • Gore played just 45 percent of the snaps last week, his lowest total since Week 1. He had played 64 percent and higher the four previous weeks.
  • The Saints have allowed 32 runs of 10 or more yards, most in the league.
  • Andrew Luck entered last week having completed just eight of 25 passes 15 or more yards downfield. He went 5-13 on such throws in the game, pushing his completion percentage to 34.2 percent on such throws.
  • New Orleans is allowing 6.4 yards per play, most in the league.
  • 59.5 percent of Drew Brees' passing yards have been created by yards after the catch, second highest rate in the league (Nick Foles 63.0 percent).
  • The Colts have allowed 32 plays of 20 or more yards, most in the league.
  • Mark Ingram has been a top-20 scorer in five of six weeks this season, tied for the most in the league.
  • Every team that has faced the Colts has at least 25 rush attempts, the only team to face 25 or more runs in every game this season.
  • Ben Watson had 10.1 percent of the New Orleans targets Weeks 1-5 before having 30.8 percent last week.


Trust: Andrew Luck (showed he doesn’t need to play great to have high output last week), Frank Gore, T.Y. Hilton (weekly targets have been there, just waiting to hit his ceiling), Drew Brees (on the road, but indoors, looked his best and fully healthy last week and had a longer layoff)


Bust: C.J. Spiller (hasn’t had more than seven touches in a game), Andre Johnson (right back down to 12 percent of the team targets last week), Coby Fleener/Dwayne Allen (this is a fantastic matchup for these tight ends if they were one player), Brandin Cooks (Brees was at his best last week and Cooks had his lowest involvement of the season), Ben Watson (don’t go chasing waterfalls)


Reasonable Return: Mark Ingram (his floor has come in different ways in different weeks), Donte Moncrief (targets were back up after a one week lull and is the best red zone option of the receiving group), Willie Snead (the top option in this passing game, really)


Pittsburgh vs. Kansas City

Steelers @ Chiefs
n/a Spread n/a
n/a Team O/U n/a
57.8 Plays/Gm 63.0
67.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 67.0
47.3% Rush % 38.1%
52.7% Pass % 61.9%
37.6% Opp. Rush % 40.3%
62.4% Opp. Pass % 59.7%


  • Charcandrick West played 43 snaps to Knile Davis' 25 last week, but had a touch on just 23.3 percent of those plays. Jamaal Charles had a touch on 34.8 percent of his snaps before injury.
  • The Chiefs have scored on just two of their 16 possessions without Charles.
  • The Chiefs have two offensive touchdowns over the past three weeks.
  • Kansas City has converted just 20 of 72 (27.8 percent) third downs on the season, lowest rate in the league.
  • Pittsburgh is allowing just .384 rushing points per carry, the second fewest in the league.
  • Travis Kelce has had more than 20 percent of the Kansas City targets in just one game this season.
  • After scoring on just nine of their 37 possessions with Mike Vick under center for the season, the Steelers scored all four drives after Landry Jones entered the game on Sunday.
  • Martavis Bryant played 36 snaps in his return, the second most of all Steeler receivers. His 137 receiving yards were more than Antonio Brown has had over the past three weeks (111) combined.
  • Bryant was targeted on 42.1 percent of his routes, the highest rate of any player with 15 or more routes in Week 6.
  • Last week was the first time in Le'Veon Bell's career that he failed to record a reception or target.


TrustLe'Veon Bell (the Steelers have taken the air out of the ball post Big Ben injury and I doubt he has zero targets in the passing game again)


Bust: Alex Smith (Pittsburgh has not been the punching bag on the back end as thought they might be prior to the season and have only been exposed by higher end quarterback play), Charcandrick West (the best thing we can say about West last week is that he was on the field and this matchup is a big negative)


Reasonable Return: Travis Kelce (the Steelers have been roasted by top flight tight ends in Gronk and Gates, so there’s opportunity here, but the Chiefs have to center the offense on him first), Antonio Brown (has been smothered by Mike Vick and tough matchups the past two weeks, but Landry Jones looked at least functional and Kansas City is gift wrapping receiver production), Martavis Bryant (reminded us of that immense ceiling he has last week), Jeremy Maclin (if he clears concussion protocol, I’d expect this week away from Rhodes to be better than the last)


New York (AFC) vs. New England

Jets @ Patriots
9 Spread -9
20 Team O/U 28.5
67.2 Plays/Gm 65.8
62.2 Opp. Plays/Gm 65.4
48.5% Rush % 36.2%
51.5% Pass % 63.8%
37.9% Opp. Rush % 36.1%
62.1% Opp. Pass % 63.9%


  • Chris Ivory had a touch on 67.6 percent of his snaps last week, the second highest touch percentage for any back in a single game this season with 30 or more snaps played.
  • Ivory is 12th in the league in carries (83), but second in the league in rushing points (70.0).
  • Ivory leads the league with 15 carries of 10 or more yards on the season.
  • Ivory averages 6.3 yards per carry in the second half this season, the highest of all backs with 40 or more attempts.
  • Eric Decker has caught a touchdown pass in five consecutive games played going back to last year, longest streak in the league.
  • Brandon Marshall is the only receiver to score or go over 100 yards receiving in every game this season.
  • Every quarterback other than Brandon Weeden has scored 16 or more points against the Patriots this season.
  • Dion Lewis played 39 snaps to 29 for LeGarrette Blount last week, but had just seven touches, his fewest on the season.
  • Lewis had just 16 percent of the New England rushing attempts last week, his first game with fewer than 25 percent on the season.
  • Blount has had 70 or more rushing yards in three consecutive weeks, something only Le'Veon Bell has done.
  • New England has scored on 61.1 percent (33 of 54) of their drives this season, best in the league. Opposing teams have only scored on 19 percent (11 of 59) of their drives against the Jets, lowest in the league.
  • Rob Gronkowski’s weekly target share has gone from 25.0 percent to 22.0, 16.7, and 18.5 to 13.5 percent last week.


Trust: Tom Brady (the toughest matchup he’s had to date, but also the hardest matchup the Jets defense has had as well), Dion Lewis (everything lined up perfectly for Blount last week and everything lines up for Lewis this week), Chris Ivory, Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker (I feel good about the Jets offense in this spot despite the low team total as they have advantages over the New England secondary and have a floor of volume in case the game gets away from them)


Bust: LeGarrette Blount


Reasonable Return: Rob Gronkowski (teams are warranted in shifting major attention to him, but he’s still finding a production floor at the position), Julian Edelman (it would make sense for this to be a game that Revis takes him every snap, but the Jets have also shown faith in Buster Skrine playing the interior this season), Danny Amendola (when Gronk and Lewis were taken away last week, had 24 percent of the team targets), Ryan Fitzpatrick


Tampa Bay vs. Washington

Buccaneers @ Washington
3 Spread -3
20 Team O/U 23
62.8 Plays/Gm 67.2
63.6 Opp. Plays/Gm 59.8
48.1% Rush % 41.4%
51.9% Pass % 58.6%
48.8% Opp. Rush % 42.6%
51.2% Opp. Pass % 57.4%


  • Doug Martin has rushed for 100 yards in back to back games for the second time in his career. The first time was Weeks 8 and 9 of 2012.
  • After allowing just 312 rushing yards over their first four games with a game high of 87 yards, Washington has allowed 176 and 221 yards rushing the past two weeks.
  • Mike Evans' 5.3 yards per target ranks 46th out of the 48 receivers with 30 or more targets this season.
  • Neither Evans nor Vincent Jackson has a reception of 25 yards or longer, the two combined for 21 (Evans 13, Jackson eight) in 2014.
  • Even with Matt Jones inactive, Alfred Morris played 41.3 percent of the snaps last week.
  • Washington has carried 41 times for 85 yards total over the past two weeks.
  • Kirk Cousins now has 27 career interceptions on 635 pass attempts. Robert Griffin has thrown 23 career interceptions on 1,069 passes while Colt McCoy has thrown 23 on 831 passes.
  • Pierre Garcon (9.2 yards) and Jamison Crowder (9.0) rank 46th and 47th out of the 48 receivers with 30 or more targets this season.


Trust: Doug Martin (I may be setting myself up to have Lucy pull out the football again, but I believe in how Martin looks on the field and that Tampa Bay wants to harness the offense from Winston still)


Bust: Alfred Morris (the past two matchups have been tough, but there’s been no known middle to ceiling here to grasp onto with a bottomless floor), Kirk Cousins, Jameis Winston (hasn’t finished about QB16), Derek Carrier (six total targets in his two games sans Jordan Reed)


Reasonable Return: Mike Evans/ Vincent Jackson (I don’t think there will be volume for both to return positive results, but positive regression favors Evans), Charles Sims (has been a top-24 back in each of his past three games), Chris Thompson (six or receptions in three of his past four) , Pierre Garcon (been no lower than WR48, but just one week higher than WR26), Jamison Crowder (a better matchup than last week in which he still had nine targets, his third straight game with eight or more)


Atlanta vs Tennessee

Falcons @ Titans
-3.5 Spread 3.5
25.5 Team O/U 22
70.0 Plays/Gm 65.0
64.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 55.8
42.1% Rush % 41.5%
57.9% Pass % 58.5%
34.5% Opp. Rush % 49.8%
65.5% Opp. Pass % 50.2%


  • Devonta Freeman is the first running back to have four consecutive 30 point scoring weeks since LaDainian Tomlinson (who went over 40 points in four straight games) in 2006.
  • The 63.3 point gap that Freeman has over Matt Forte (the RB2 overall) is the same gap that Forte has on the RB44 (Melvin Gordon) overall.
  • 41.3 percent of the yardage gained against Tennessee is rushing, highest percentage in the league.
  • Julio Jones has 247 yards after the catch, the most of any receiver.
  • Dorial Green-Beckham played a season high 29 snaps last week and had six targets after having just five total targets through the first four games.
  • Kendall Wright has had 20 percent of the team targets in just two games all season and topped six targets in a game just once.
  • Tennessee has had four different backs lead the team in carries for a week through five games.
  • Atlanta has allowed the 10th fewest yards per carry (3.6), and the least rushing yards per game (78.8) while seeing the 7th fewest rushing attempts, but has allowed 10 rushing touchdowns, tied for the most in the league.


Trust: Devonta Freeman, Julio Jones (has looked mortal the past three weeks, but should be well rested in this one), Delanie Walker (the poor man’s Travis Kelce in terms of fantasy production and Atlanta was just woodshedded by Ben Watson)


Bust: Marcus Mariota (not expected to go, but if he plays, this isn’t a great spot while limited and has three duds over his past four), All Titan running backs (I have no clue what the usage splits will be, but Antonio Andrews and Dexter McCluster have been ahead of Bishop Sankey the past two games), Leonard Hankerson (has played really poorly the past two weeks and Tennessee has limited opposing receivers)


Reasonable Return: Kendall Wright (the targets haven’t been bankable here weekly, but will have the best matchup here against Philip Adams), Matt Ryan (has been a floor player so far and has finished as the QB21, QB27 and QB15 over the past three weeks)


Oakland vs. San Diego

Raiders @ Chargers
4 Spread -4
21.5 Team O/U 24.5
63.0 Plays/Gm 70.2
66.6 Opp. Plays/Gm 55.8
35.6% Rush % 34.2%
64.4% Pass % 65.8%
35.1% Opp. Rush % 44.2%
64.9% Opp. Pass % 55.8%


  • Antonio Gates has been targeted on 28.1 percent of his routes since returning, the highest rate of any tight end.
  • Gates already has seven red zone targets, which is tied for the 6th most at tight end and only two behind Tyler Eifert and Greg Olsen at nine, who lead the position.
  • Philip Rivers' 254 pass attempts through six games are the most ever in his career. His previous high through six games was 223 attempts in 2013.
  • Rivers' 2,117 passing yards are the fifth-highest total through six games played in NFL history. The highest total is 2,260 yards from Kurt Warner in 2000.
  • Rivers has passed for 350 yards in three straight games for the first time in his career.
  • Keenan Allen's 53 receptions are the most ever by a player through six games.
  • San Diego averages 38.9 yards per drive, second highest in the league behind New England (40.5 yards), but has scored a touchdown on just 22.4 percent (15 of 67) of their possessions, 11th in the league.
  • The Chargers are averaging just 20.3 rushing attempts per game over their past three games, lowest in the league.
  • Oakland faces just 23.4 runs per game, 28th in the league.
  • The Chargers are the only team that has allowed 24 or more points in every game this season.
  • San Diego is allowing .53 rushing points per carry, the second highest in the league.
  • Michael Crabtree has been targeted on 27.2 percent of his routes, while Amari Cooper is at 22.0 percent on the season.


Trust: Latavius Murray (just keep targeting San Diego’s run defense weekly), Antonio Gates (have you heard the one about tight ends facing the Raiders?), Philip Rivers (this team is one-dimensional, but they have the pieces to make it work for fantasy production), Keenan Allen


Bust: Melvin Gordon (still unplayable until this offensive line is healthy and the matchup is bad anyways), Amari Cooper (quickly learning to stay away from Jason Verrett), Derek Carr (with his best receiver facing a tough matchup and the running game expected to go well,  not expecting a lot of output)


Reasonable Return: Danny Woodhead (has 60 or more receiving yards in four of his past five), Michael Crabtree (with Cooper seeing the best defender, the passing game should roll through him)


Dallas vs. New York (NFC)

Cowboys @ Giants
5 Spread -5
20 Team O/U 24.5
62.0 Plays/Gm 65.3
61.8 Opp. Plays/Gm 69.3
41.6% Rush % 38.3%
58.4% Pass % 61.7%
39.2% Opp. Rush % 36.8%
60.8% Opp. Pass % 63.2%


  • After scoring a touchdown on five of their first nine drives with Brandon Weeden under center, Dallas scored a touchdown on just two of 25 possessions after.
  • Since Tony Romo was lost, the only Cowboy player to reach 70 receiving yards in a game was Lance Dunbar (100) in Week 3.
  • The Giants are allowing 28.5 completed passes per game, most in the league, but have only allowed Colin Kaepernick and Tony Romo to finish higher than QB18 against them this season.
  • After allowing 69.8 yards rushing through the first four weeks, the Giants have allowed 124 and 155 yards on the ground the past two weeks.
  • After seeing 29.3 percent of the team targets through four weeks, Odell Beckham has had 20.4 and 21.2 percent over the past two games.
  • Shane Vereen has 21 catches on the season (tied for the 9th most at running back), but 16 have come in two games with eight in each game.
  • New York is the only team that has yet to rush for 100 yards as a team in any game this season.


Trust: Jason Witten (is the only Cowboy you feel good about and his best game came Week 1 against the Giants)


Bust: Rashad Jennings (has had 50 percent of the team carries the past two weeks, but that doesn’t mean a ton on this offense), Christine Michael (apparently he’s going to get the start, but we haven’t been able to trust anyone in this running game to date), Rueben Randle (has one top-40 week this season), Terrance Williams (no reliance on a one dimensional receiver)


Reasonable Return: Shane Vereen (there are some wise men in the world, but no one ever truly knows how and when he’ll be used. Dallas has allowed four or more receptions to seven different backs so far), Odell Beckham (has done some damage control to prevent a few possible floor moments, but that’s why he’s on that tier of receivers), Eli Manning (the turnover bugaboos have popped back up the past three weeks, but this team can’t run)


Philadelphia vs. Carolina

Eagles @ Panthers
3 Spread -3
21.5 Team O/U 24.5
66.0 Plays/Gm 66.2
71.2 Opp. Plays/Gm 69.4
40.4% Rush % 49.6%
59.6% Pass % 50.4%
37.5% Opp. Rush % 35.7%
62.5% Opp. Pass % 64.3%


  • Carolina has just 14 offensive plays that have gone for 20 or more yards, fewest in the league.
  • 38.4 percent of Cam Newton's fantasy output is from rushing, the highest percentage of all quarterbacks.
  • 36 percent (18 of 50) of Newton's rushing attempts have resulted in a first down, the highest percentage for any player in the league.
  • Carolina has just 346 yards after the catch receiving, tied for the fewest in the league with Minnesota.
  • Greg Olsen's weekly target share: 9.7 percent, 37.8, 35.5, 27.3 and 30.6 percent.
  • DeMarco Murray had four runs of 10 or more yards last week after having three through the first five weeks.
  • Sam Bradford is tied with Kirk Cousins with four games of throwing multiple interceptions.
  • The most passing points that Carolina has allowed in a game this season is 13.6 to Russell Wilson in Week 6.
  • Jordan Matthews has seven or more targets in every game this season, but his highest weekly finish over the past four weeks has been WR43.


Trust: Cam Newton (turning the corner on being volatile as he’s had 16 or more points in four straight games with two big ceiling games)


Bust: Sam Bradford (outside of two second halves has been largely dreadful), Jordan Matthews (I keep looking for reasons to buy in again, but they are running thin in this matchup), Jonathan Stewart (outside of the two short plunges, was still at under 4.0 yards per carry and the Eagles are stingy against the run), DeMarco Murray (has salvaged a few games in the second half of games they’ve been leading heavily, but I don’t believe that will be the case this week), Zach Ertz (may be popular for those chasing the points Jimmy Graham last week, but he’s not Graham as he’s had just one week above TE19)


Reasonable Return: Greg Olsen (I don’t trust any tight ends against Philly, but his weekly involvement is too great to fade again)


Baltimore vs. Arizona

Ravens @ Cardinals
7.5 Spread -7.5
20 Team O/U 27.5
69.0 Plays/Gm 60.2
66.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.5
38.2% Rush % 43.2%
61.8% Pass % 56.8%
39.7% Opp. Rush % 40.8%
60.3% Opp. Pass % 59.2%


  • John Brown (11.0 yards) and Larry Fitzgerald (10.8) rank first and second in yards per target of all receivers with 40 or more targets on the season.
  • Fitzgerald has scored on 11.1 percent of targets, highest of all receivers with 40 or more targets on the season. Average for that group of receivers is 4.86 percent.
  • Baltimore has allowed 12 pass plays of 30 or more yards, most in the league.
  • The only quarterbacks that have failed to score 20 points in a game against Baltimore have been Peyton Manning (4.9) and Mike Vick (12.3).
  • Arizona leads the league in yards per play at 6.7 yards.
  • Steve Smith has been targeted on 32.8 percent of his routes, highest percentage in the league with minimum 100 routes run.
  • After having the 13th most touches (51) through three weeks, Justin Forsett ranks third in the league in touches with 76 touches over the past three weeks.
  • Joe Flacco is 40-82 (48.8 percent) passing for 5.6 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the fourth quarter of games this season. That completion percentage ranks only ahead of Blake Bortles and his yards per attempt are last of all quarterbacks that played every game.
  • Just 27.9 percent (69 or 247) of Flacco's pass attempts have gone for a first down, lowest rate in the league.


Trust: Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown (get them all in everywhere)


Bust: Joe Flacco (outside of volume alone, there’s not much to like here), Chris Johnson, Andre Ellington, David Johnson (Baltimore is far more giving to opposing passing games and the usage of Ellington and David Johnson can’t be trusted while Chris has declined three weeks in a row in terms of fantasy output)


Reasonable Return: Michael Floyd (just missed a huge game last week on a season high eight targets and this game sets up to have similar play calling splits for Arizona), Steve Smith (has been a target vacuum and will be again, but draws a hot defender in Patrick Peterson), Justin Forsett (in a season filled with limited running back options, Forsett’s current usage is a blessing even if it doesn’t carry a huge ceiling)


Context Key:


Trust = Set him in your lineups this week

Bust = Player to underperform season average

Reasonable Return = On par with seasonal average

Rich Hribar
Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.