Magazine Articles

ADP Analysis: ESPN & Yahoo

Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Today's column explores average draft positions (ADPs), providing insight into broad trends and perspectives on player values. If the hive-mind of fantasy GMs at ESPN have given Ricky Rubio an ADP of 62.5 (they have), you're less likely to need to reach for him in the 40-50 range. On the other hand, Rubio’s ADP on Yahoo is 46.7, meaning you’d likely need to grab him a round earlier than you could on ESPN.

 

For the most up-to-date ADP data (it doesn’t change too dramatically), here are the links for ESPN leagues and Yahoo leagues.

 

Be mindful, however, that ADP data is only good as a general roadmap to values. Here are some caveats to keep in mind:

 

1)     ADPs are an amalgam of many different types and depths of leagues. When it comes to ADP data, the sites that host leagues don’t differentiate between a 10-team roto league and a 14-team H2H league.

2)     There are wide disparities in the intensity of leagues – some require painstaking research and strategies to snipe valuable players from knowledgeable opponents, while some are casual affairs where a little bit of planning goes a long way.

3)     The ‘official’ pre-draft rankings can have a distorting effect. ADP data includes plenty of auto-draft selections (although only ‘live draft’ data is included, lots of owners still forget to show up), which gives outsized importance to pre-draft ranks. For what possible reason could Dario Saric have an ADP under 75 in both ESPN and Yahoo leagues? Because he was ranked so high by these sites, his ADP gets artificially driven up – it’s the same reason Tyson Chandler appears at all, while worthier players slip into the obscure 160+ region.

 

Nevertheless, ADP is a useful tool for getting the temperature of the room, as it were. If you know that Gary Harris has an (absurdly low) ADP of 107.9 in ESPN drafts, you’ll be more likely to steal him in the late-middle rounds. This also protects against over-reaching for guys you love – there’s nothing wrong with snagging Aaron Gordon a round early to ensure he’s on your squad, but why reach for him in Rnd. 4 in Yahoo (ADP = 102) when you can almost definitely get him a round or two later?

 

Here are the top 150 players for both Yahoo and ESPN, with a column measuring the difference between their respective ADPs on both sites. (Note that for whatever reason, ESPN lists everyone outside of the top-150 as having an ADP of 140…I have inserted ‘140’ as a placeholder value for these players.)

 

Let’s start with ESPN’s ADP data, which is based upon ‘Live Draft Results'. Players with the generic '140' ADP on ESPN include Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Terrence Ross, Jonathan Isaac, Terrence Ross, Skal Labissiere, Richaun Holmes, Joe Ingles, Malik Monk (though not for long), and more.

 

It's important to note that ESPN's ADP values are provided without explicit consideration (that I can tell) of total ownership percentage. This means that some players drafted early by only a handful of GMs can appear to be more highly-valued than they are in a typical draft. Players with ownership rates below 10.0% include Al-Farouq Aminu, Austin Rivers, Moe Harkless, JaMychal Green, Kelly Olynyk, Jamal Crawford, and even Rodney Hood. The final name on that list surprises me, given Hood's importance to Utah's post-Hayward offense.

 

The list of players who failed to make the top-150 in Yahoo leagues is somewhat mind-boggling. First of all, you might notice that Taurean Prince is not on this list. ESPN does not include him in their top-200 ADP list, and as of Oct. 6 he was coming in No. 161 on Yahoo. This is a travesty that won’t be replicated in competitive leagues, but in more casual formats it looks like he’ll be a massive bargain for anyone aware of his sky-high potential.

 

ADP Comparison (Yahoo & ESPN, as of 10-6-17)

Player

Yahoo ADP

ESPN ADP

Difference in ADP

Russell Westbrook

1.4

2.2

0.8

Kevin Durant

2.4

4.8

2.4

James Harden

3.5

3.6

0.1

Stephen Curry

4.1

6.5

2.4

Giannis Antetokounmpo

4.8

2.2

2.6

Karl-Anthony Towns

6.8

7.5

0.7

Anthony Davis

7

7.2

0.2

Kawhi Leonard

8.2

7

1.2

LeBron James

8.3

6.2

2.1

John Wall

10.3

10.5

0.2

Nikola Jokic

11.7

13.7

2

DeMarcus Cousins

13.6

14.3

0.7

Chris Paul

14.4

14.9

0.5

Kyrie Irving

14.7

13.4

1.3

Rudy Gobert

14.8

13.6

1.2

Paul George

15.5

17.9

2.4

Damian Lillard

17.5

17.1

0.4

Jimmy Butler

18

17.3

0.7

Hassan Whiteside

19.3

16.7

2.6

Draymond Green

21.3

24.4

3.1

Kristaps Porzingis

22.8

25.8

3

Kemba Walker

23

24.4

1.4

Kyle Lowry

23.9

27.8

3.9

Isaiah Thomas

24.7

51.2

26.5

Gordon Hayward

25.3

22.5

2.8

C.J. McCollum

26.6

22.2

4.4

Klay Thompson

27.8

25.6

2.2

Myles Turner

27.9

28.5

0.6

Mike Conley

29

32.4

3.4

Joel Embiid

29.1

37.9

8.8

DeMar DeRozan

29.8

28.9

0.9

Bradley Beal

32.2

27

5.2

Marc Gasol

33.1

35.1

2

Eric Bledsoe

35.3

34.5

0.8

Kevin Love

36.2

39.4

3.2

Blake Griffin

36.6

34.9

1.7

Goran Dragic

37.8

46.5

8.7

Brook Lopez

39.7

46.6

6.9

Khris Middleton

40

36.3

3.7

Paul Millsap

42.3

37.2

5.1

DeAndre Jordan

44.2

38.1

6.1

Devin Booker

44.4

42.6

1.8

Otto Porter Jr.

44.7

45.2

0.5

Carmelo Anthony

44.9

35.7

9.2

Jeff Teague

45.9

46.3

0.4

Ricky Rubio

46.7

62.5

15.8

Jusuf Nurkic

47.3

43.6

3.7

Al Horford

48.9

48.8

0.1

Serge Ibaka

50.6

51.4

0.8

Nicolas Batum

50.8

50.7

0.1

Andrew Wiggins

51.2

43.7

7.5

Dennis Schroder

51.9

50.8

1.1

Andre Drummond

52.3

56.9

4.6

Jrue Holiday

52.7

58.7

6

Ben Simmons

53.3

53.5

0.2

LaMarcus Aldridge

54.1

52

2.1

Lonzo Ball

54.6

48.7

5.9

Nikola Vucevic

55.4

59.9

4.5

Victor Oladipo

61.1

67.4

6.3

Harrison Barnes

63.4

66.9

3.5

D'Angelo Russell

64.7

57.8

6.9

Marcin Gortat

64.7

83

18.3

Dwight Howard

66.3

67.7

1.4

Tobias Harris

66.6

75.3

8.7

Trevor Ariza

66.6

72.3

5.7

Jae Crowder

66.9

68.7

1.8

Robert Covington

68.2

66.2

2

Jonas Valanciunas

68.8

70.3

1.5

Clint Capela

70

68.3

1.7

Lou Williams

73.3

91.3

18

Elfrid Payton

73.6

57.2

16.4

Julius Randle

74

70.9

3.1

Dario Saric

74.9

69

5.9

Danilo Gallinari

77.1

78.6

1.5

Nerlens Noel

77.4

111.7

34.3

Avery Bradley

77.5

84.4

6.9

Jabari Parker

77.7

100

22.3

Markelle Fultz

77.7

75.1

2.6

George Hillc

78.6

88

9.4

Dwyane Wade

79.9

65

14.9

Gorgui Dieng

82.6

62

20.6

Evan Fournier

83.4

86.8

3.4

Malcolm Brogdon

87.9

103.4

15.5

Steven Adams

88.2

83.9

4.3

Zach Randolph

88.7

93.8

5.1

Patrick Beverley

89.5

96.7

7.2

James Johnson

90.5

80.4

10.1

Rudy Gay

90.9

89.8

1.1

Dirk Nowitzki

92.2

105.4

13.2

Willie Cauley-Steinc

93.1

109

15.9

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

93.4

93.2

0.2

Tim Hardaway Jr.

93.6

92.3

1.3

Jeremy Lin

94

94.7

0.7

Eric Gordon

94.9

94

0.9

Rajon Rondo

95.3

86.1

9.2

Pau Gasol

96.5

87.3

9.2

Gary Harris

97.7

107.9

10.2

Dennis Smith Jr.

98.7

100

1.3

Markieff Morris

98.7

93.5

5.2

Willy Hernangomez

98.8

100

1.2

Aaron Gordon

102

92.7

9.3

Wilson Chandler

103.9

87.7

16.2

Greg Monroe

105.5

100.7

4.8

Dion Waiters

106.9

110.3

3.4

Zach LaVine

107

79.5

27.5

Derrick Favors

108.3

113.7

5.4

Marcus Smart

108.3

114.2

5.9

Robin Lopez

109.3

118.7

9.4

Brandon Ingram

110.6

90

20.6

Frank Kaminsky

111

113.3

2.3

Darren Collison

114

113.1

0.9

Tristan Thompson

114.1

93.7

20.4

Josh Jackson

115.5

112.3

3.2

Marquese Chriss

115.7

84.3

31.4

Derrick Rose

116.1

95.9

20.2

Wesley Matthews

117.6

110.7

6.9

Ryan Anderson

118.5

115.5

3

Buddy Hield

118.8

114.6

4.2

Kent Bazemore

119.3

120.7

1.4

Reggie Jackson

119.4

101.8

17.6

Seth Curry

119.9

110.9

9

Marvin Williams

120.1

119.6

0.5

Rodney Hood

120.7

115.5

5.2

Taj Gibson

121.2

140

18.8

J.J. Redick

122.5

110.6

11.9

Jayson Tatum

123.7

104.6

19.1

Jordan Clarkson

124.5

106

18.5

Joe Ingles

126

140

14

Enes Kanter

126.5

111.9

14.6

Thaddeus Young

126.7

115

11.7

Mason Plumlee

129

118.9

10.1

T.J. Warren

129.1

120.5

8.6

Jamal Murray

129.7

115.3

14.4

Will Barton

129.7

124.3

5.4

Marcus Morris

130.5

121.6

8.9

Nikola Mirotic

131.1

117.2

13.9

Manu Ginobili

132.7

140

7.3

JaVale McGee

132.8

140

7.2

Andre Iguodala

133

101.6

31.4

J.R. Smith

133.2

101

32.2

Channing Frye

135

140

5

De'Aaron Fox

135

110.8

24.2

Kyle Korver

136.6

101.1

35.5

Ersan Ilyasova

136.7

120.9

15.8

Lucas Nogueira

136.7

140

3.3

Ivica Zubac

137.3

140

2.7

Tyson Chandler

137.3

140

2.7

Jonathon Simmons

138.2

140

1.8

Jamal Crawford

138.4

105

33.4

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

138.6

140

1.4

Tyler Johnson

138.9

123.7

15.2

Lauri Markkanen

139.3

140

0.7

Dewayne Dedmon

139.5

140

0.5

Justin Jackson

140.8

140

0.8

Andre Roberson

140.9

140

0.9

Ish Smith

141.1

140

1.1

Joe Johnson

141.3

140

1.3

Justise Winslow

141.4

120.7

20.7

Evan Turner

141.7

118.1

23.6

Cory Joseph

142.2

140

2.2

Jahlil Okafor

142.7

113.7

29

JaMychal Green

143

117.1

25.9

Austin Rivers

145.1

118

27.1

Al-Farouq Aminu

146

119.3

26.7

Cody Zeller

147.2

117.4

29.8

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

147.6

116.3

31.3

Maurice Harkless

149.2

117.3

31.9

 

I can’t go any further without also mentioning Josh Richardson, who ranks No. 160 in Yahoo and also fails to make ESPN’s top-200. Even if he doesn’t end up starting for the Heat this year, make no mistake – Richardson is a fantasy goldmine, even if his FG% doesn’t improve. Other players outside Yahoo’s top-150 include John Collins (apparently young Hawks get no love), Chandler Parsons, Norman Powell (another complete oversight), Dewayne Dedmon, MKG and RHJ.

 

A total of 20 players made one list but not the other, suggesting a lack of consensus about their fantasy worthiness. Players who made the top-150 in Yahoo, but not ESPN, are Lucas Nogueira, Ivica Zubac, Jonathon Simmons, MKG, JaVale McGee, Manu Ginobili, Channing Frye, Joe Ingles and Taj Gibson,

 

Players who made the top-150 on ESPN, but not Yahoo, are Tyler Johnson, Moe Harkless, RHJ, Cody Zeller, Al-Farouq Aminu, Austin Rivers, JaMychal Green, Jahlil Okafor, Cory Joseph, Evan Turner, and Justise Winslow.

 

As I detailed in the introduction, ADP values are flawed metrics of player values, but they still provide valuable insights in overall fantasy trends and perceptions. For more ways to use aggregated pre-draft data to your advantage, check out our Draft Guide columns on ‘Abusing the Default Ranks’. Good luck!


Source URL: https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/premium/basketball/draft-guide/article/magazine-articles/adp-analysis-espn-yahoo