We have a 10-game slate on tap for tonight, and I honestly don’t see a clear route to roster construction on any site across the industry. Trevor Bauer is clearly the top pitcher, but he isn’t a lock-and-load due to his expensive price tag and how efficiently the batters are priced. And with games in Coors Field and Arlington, the Yankees facing Dylan Covey, and the Cubs facing Jake Junis, we may not even have to worry too much about ownership tonight on the hitting side of things.
Zack Godley vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Godley has turned it up a notch over his last six games (five starts and one brief relief appearance), starting to show glimpses of the great pitcher he was last season. In this recent stretch, he has posted a 29.7% K%, 16.4% SwStr%, 7% BB%, 3.06 SIERA, 51.3% GB%, and 31.3% Hard%. That ground ball rate has stayed the same, but everything else is a drastic improvement from his first 17 starts of the season. It’s a great night to speculate on this type of performance continuing considering he gets to face one of the most strikeout prone teams in the league against RHP. The Phillies currently sport a 25.8% K% in that split, which is second only to the Padres (25.9%). Combine Godley’s recent surge with the matchup, and you have the upside for one of the best point per dollar plays on the slate at his mid-tier price tags across the industry.
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The Mariners are getting a huge positive park shift tonight heading into Texas to face Perez, and perhaps no catcher on the slate has as much power upside as Zunino except for maybe his counterpart (Chirinos). Perez has been absolutely dreadful this season against righties, allowing a .437 wOBA and .221 ISO. The issue with Zunino is that he strikes out SO much, but that’s way less of a concern tonight with Perez having a dreadful 13.2% K% against righties this season. If Zunino makes contact, there’s a good chance it’s going out of this ballpark. Heck, he might even hit two tonight! Don’t overlook him on FanDuel either at almost the bare minimum $2,100. He can help you fit in Trevor Bauer, and DFS owners never like using a catcher on that site (which will keep ownership low).
The Cubs are my favorite stack on the night facing an awful pitcher and an even worse bullpen. With Rizzo likely leading off with the platoon edge, that might make him my favorite bat on the entire slate. And as I alluded to in the intro, we may not need to worry about his ownership at all with so many other appealing bats on the slate. Junis has somehow allowed more home runs to righties than lefties this season, but that’s bound to regress (even though he gives up plenty to both). And despite this being a good pitchers park, it’s going to be extremely hot in Kansas City tonight. I love his floor for cash games. I love his power upside for tournaments. I love everything about Rizzo tonight. He’s the guy I want at first base.
Few second basemen offer the duel power and stolen base upside that Moncada does, and he gets a great matchup for it tonight against Lynn. We should all know by now how heavy the splits are for Lynn, as he’s borderline dominant against righties (.316 wOBA, 26.7% K%, 11.5% BB%, 33.9% Hard%) and awful against lefties (.377 wOBA, 14.1% K%, 14.7% BB%, 41.7% Hard%). With Moncada hitting from his better side of the plate (.332 wOBA, .205 ISO in 2018), there are all sorts of routes to him doing damage against Lynn tonight. He could take him deep with Lynn’s struggles with hard contact. He could draw a free pass (Moncada a surprising 10.6% BB% this season against RHP) because of Lynn’s control problems and swipe a bag or two. He’s one of my favorite tournament plays on the slate, and the price tag’s extremely compelling on DraftKings at only $3,900.
I refuse to let one of these articles go by without mentioning one of the guys on the left side of the Cleveland infield. The best slates to target Ramirez in tournaments are when there are games in Coors Field. The majority of DFS owners will always default to spending on Arenado as opposed to Ramirez if they’re shopping in this price range. But Ramirez has as much upside of anyone on ANY slate, and he still somehow is going overlooked night in and night out. The guy only leads the league in home runs (33) and is second in stolen bases (26). WHAT!? That’s just silliness. Play this man tonight!
Musgrove is a decent pitcher, what with his ability to induce groundballs and limit hard contact. That’s a great start if you are building a pitcher who can succeed in Coors Field. However, he doesn’t generate many strikeouts, and that’s often the biggest issue when rostering Story. So if we assume the ball will be getting put in play against Musgrove, we want guys who can lift it off the ground. Story fits that profile perfectly with his 44.4% fly ball rate. He’s shown plenty of pop this year against RHP (.243 ISO), and we know he’s a threat to swipe a bag if the opportunity presents itself (14 steals this season). In terms of raw upside, it doesn’t get much better than Story tonight.
I’m going right back to Arlington with these lefty mashers hitting in the heart of the order for the Mariners. In the Zunino blurb, we mentioned the great park shift for all of these Mariners as well as Perez’s huge struggles with righties. Well, you’ll definitely want to include these two boppers as a part of any Seattle stacks, and they’re great on their own too with their double-dong upside. They had essentially the same ISO split against LHP last season (Cruz at .198, Haniger at .196), but Cruz has taken things to a new level this season while Haniger’s stumbled. In 108 plate appearances against LHP this season, Cruz has posted a monstrous .417 wOBA and .378 ISO. So much for him being too old, huh? Haniger’s power has somehow disappeared this season against LHP (only a .138 ISO), but this is the matchup and park to right the ship. Besides you get Haniger much more affordable across the industry, especially on FanDuel at only $3,200. I love both of these guys tonight in all formats.