DFS Fades Week 5
There are several reasons you might not want to roster a certain player in a given week of NFL DFS. To truly be a “fade”, in my opinion the player has to be projected to have decent ownership, e.g. no one is “fading” a WR3 on the Arizona Cardinals. I’ll always provide the argument for and against a player in this column.
Also, fading a player doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll have zero exposure. If you’re a DFS player who plays on multiple sites with multiple lineups in various contests, fading might mean you use that player in just one or two tournament lineups while other DFS players are using him in a majority of their lineups.
In the case where you want to fade a player due to projected high ownership (see more on this below), perhaps you fade him in tournaments but continue to roster him in cash games. Having an idea of whom you don’twant to roster as well as whom you do makes navigating salary decisions in the lineup construction process a little bit easier.
So in Week 5, I’m fading…
Patrick Mahomes: Please, fantasy gods, don’t strike me down! He’s the most expensive QB on FanDuel this weekend and facing the league’s best passing defense. Yes, I saw the left-handed throw. I am as big a fan as anyone of Mahomes, just not spending up on him this week.
Michael Thomas:Yes, he’s making this list two weeks in a row. I’m probably doomed here, but New Orleans takes on a Washington team that is allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers, and the second-fewest to QBs. Thomas and Brees are tough to fade at home, but if you’re playing a full Sunday-Monday slate, you have better guys to spend on. He’s an interesting fade in the showdown slate as well.
Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman: I see a potential shootout here and with the way Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones are humming, I don’t think the return of Freeman is going to change things much. Sometimes Freeman reaches value when both backs play, but often they’re both ‘meh’, and I just don’t see the upside in this game. The Steelers pass defense is laughable, giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to QBs. That’s where the Falcons will go if they’re smart.
Davante Adams:Sounds like he’s headed to a game time decision. With fellow wideouts Geronimo Allison doubtful and Randall Cobb already out, I’m looking toward Aaron Jones and Jimmy Graham for my Packers exposure.
T.J. Yeldon: Yeldon is nursing a sore ankle, but should be good to go and in a great spot vs. the Chiefs this weekend. If you’re worried about the game script being negative, I wouldn’t. Yeldon has two receiving TDs and 22 targets so far, so he’s a factor in all phases of the game.
Marvin Jones Jr.:Added to the injury report as questionable on Friday, we don’t know a lot about this injury other than that it’s an ankle. I think the fact that Green Bay is down so many offensive starters is a big boost to the Detroit pass game; the less Aaron Rodgers is on the field, the better. Bump up Golden Tate and Kenny Golladay.
Dalvin Cook:Played when he wasn’t 100 percent and is now a serious risk to miss Week 5. This is a guy to avoid; whether he’s active or not, I can’t see the Vikings being dumb enough to give him a lot of work. What’s more, Philadelphia isn’t a defense you want to run against. Expect a lot of Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs this week.
Matt Breida: Is in a terrific spot (Arizona leads the league in fantasy points to opposing running backs), but is still bothered by his sprained shoulder. I expect him to play and play well in this matchup.
In Week 5, players with high projected ownership areAndy Dalton, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Todd Gurley, James Conner, Joe Mixon, Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, T.J. Yeldon, Tyler Boyd, Dede Westbrook, Stefon Diggs, Juju Smith-Schuster, Dion Lewis, and Titans D/ST. I think Game Theory is useful in DFS to an extent; obviously we can’t all win with the same players. But time and again it’s proven that big GPP winners can and do win with popular plays in their lineups. One or two highly owned players that live up to their expectations (e.g. score a ton of points) won’t hurt you nearly as much as fading those guys in favor of lower-owned, lesser-producing players will. The trick is to find the low-owned, productive guys to mix in around them.