I can't believe it's already Week 6 and that we have our first London game this weekend.
Overall, there isn't a ton of value on this slate, and that should affect ownership on the high-end guys the most. Now that we're getting deeper in the season though, we're able to start looking at DVOA and more defensive stats.
Cash Game Targets
Matt Ryan vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are 32nd in DVOA against the pass and are allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. They've allowed over 330 passing yards and at least one passing touchdown in each game. Tampa has also surrendered at least three passing touchdowns in three of four games this season. Ryan struggled in Week 1, but he's played great since then, as he's averaging 24.7 fantasy points per game on FanDuel and 26.5 fantasy points per game on DraftKings. If you're paying up for quarterback, Ryan has an extremely high floor, and you're paying up for his safety in this spot.
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Russell Wilson vs. Oakland Raiders (Game in London)
This is one of my favorite games to target this weekend. This game has a 48.5 implied total, while the Seahawks have a 25.5 implied team total. Six of the last nine games in London have hit the over, and with these two teams struggling on defense, I think we see a shootout. Oakland is a bottom five team at pressuring the quarterback this season, while Wilson has a 45.27% completion rate when under pressure and a 70% completion rate when not pressured. I don't mind taking a little more risk in cash games, so I really like Wilson in all formats this weekend.
Andy Dalton vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
This is another game that I'm targeting this weekend, and another one in which I'd expect the total to go over. The Steelers are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed at least one passing touchdown per game this season, as well as multiple passing touchdowns in three of the five games. Dalton is averaging 37.4 passing attempts per game, and his 5.8 red zone attempts per game is in the top 10 among quarterbacks. He's attempting 5.4 deep balls per game, which is fourth highest among quarterbacks. I like the upside for Dalton in this matchup, but as always, this is Andy Dalton we're talking about, so buyer beware.
Joe Flacco @ Tennessee Titans
I was disappointed in the Ravens last weekend, but I'm going right back to the well in this matchup. Tennessee has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in three of five games this season, but they haven't allowed a rushing touchdown yet. The Ravens are throwing the ball the second most in the NFL this season, and Flacco is averaging 45.4 passing attempts per game. He's second in pass attempt distance and fourth in air yards this season. I love the upside of Flacco at this low price tag.
Cash Game Targets
Todd Gurley @ Denver Broncos
Todd Gurley is the first player to be priced above $10,000 on DraftKings so far this season. With that said, he has at least 22 fantasy points on FanDuel and 25 fantasy points on DK in every game this season. He has an 85.1% opportunity share, which is third highest in the NFL, and he leads the league in carries while also averaging 3.8 catches per game this season. It's extremely hard to predict touchdowns, but getting a high volume of red zone touches is something we can pay attention to. Gurley is averaging 7.4 red zone touches per game, which is the most in the NFL. You're paying up for that insanely high floor this weekend.
T.J. Yeldon @ Dallas Cowboys
With Fournette already ruled out and Corey Grant out for the season, Yeldon is in line for a lot of work again this weekend. He played 77 of 83 snaps in Week 5 against the Chiefs, and while he only had 18 touches, he had eight catches on 10 targets in that game. Yeldon showed us that he is able to be used in the passing game, which adds to his floor in this matchup. Dallas has been good against the run this season but should be without Sean Lee this weekend, and the Cowboys are ranked 22nd against pass-catching running backs so far.
Ezekiel Elliott vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I mentioned Yeldon above, and while I think this is a tough matchup against Jacksonville, I'm more worried about game flow than the matchup. Elliott is the entire Dallas offense this season, as outside of him and Dak, no one is averaging more than nine fantasy points per game this season. The running back is averaging 18.6 carries per game and 5.8 targets per game this season. His 91% opportunity share is the second highest in the NFL, and his 480 rushing yards lead the league. The Jags allowed 113 rushing yards and a touchdown in Week 1 against the Giants and have allowed 18+ fantasy points to opposing running backs in three of five games this season.
Chris Carson vs. Oakland Raiders (Game in London)
I mentioned above with Wilson how I love this game in general, and I particularly like this matchup for Chris Carson. Oakland is allowing 26.6 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season, which is 4.9 fantasy points higher than the league average. The Raiders are 24th in DVOA against the run and 31st in DVOA against pass-catching backs. After missing Week 4, Carson had 19 rushes for 116 rushing yards against the Rams in Week 5, and he played 35 snaps compared to the 25 snaps for Mike Davis. It appears Carson is the lead back, and he has a great price tag across the industry.