The Worksheet

The NFL Week 7 Worksheet

Updated On: October 17, 2018, 9:01 am ET

Week 7 is here, and we’ve finally reached a week with more than two teams on bye. Make sure that you get all Seattle, Oakland, Pittsburgh and Green Bay players out of your lineups this week.

 

For those that are new here, the goal of this article is to provide a top-down, statistical snapshot for each game each week, running down weekly point spreads, team totals, play calling splits, and statistical bullet points on the players and teams involved. Although we’re focusing strictly on PPR league scoring here as a baseline, there’s more than enough to spread around across formats and daily leagues. The reason we’re operating under a PPR umbrella is it allows us to cover a larger portion of the players involved in action weekly.

 

As the author, it’s imperative that I note that this is an expectations-based column over a linear start/sit forum. The labels for each subset of players for each game is simply the vehicle for those expectations and have a different context for each player. Players that are high performers week-to-week are held to different standards than a secondary option in an offense. Every player runs into down weeks, and we’re trying to identify those moments, even for the star players you’re going to ride through thick and thin moments that don’t tally many low points during the season. That said, we’re still embracing some of the elements that will go along with a start/sit column as a byproduct of those expectations. I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points here in conjunction with the Start/Sit column posted weekly by Nick Mensio, Pat Daugherty’s rankings in the Goal Line Stand, Evan Silva’s Matchup’s column, Ray Summerlin's Waiver Wired and most importantly, your own information and thought process.  Remember, you control your own team. If you are curious as to my personal weekly rankings, they can be found each and every week in the Season Pass section.

 

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All lines are taken from VegasInsider on Tuesday nights 

 

Broncos @ Cardinals


Denver Rank @ Arizona Rank
-2.5   Spread 2.5  
21.5   Implied Total 19.0  
20.0 26 Points/Gm 13.7 31
25.7 22 Points All./Gm 23.2 13
64.7 16 Plays/Gm 50.3 32
65.0 21 Opp. Plays/Gm 72.5 31
36.1% 22 Rush% 39.4% 17
63.9% 11 Pass% 60.6% 16
44.6% 27 Opp. Rush % 47.4% 32
55.4% 6 Opp. Pass % 52.6% 1

 

  • Denver ranks 32nd in rushing points allowed per game (22.1) to opposing backfields while Arizona ranks 31st (21.9).
  • The Broncos are the first team to ever allow a 200-yard rusher in back-to-back games in NFL history.
  • David Johnson has rushed 43 times for 83 yards (1.9 YPC) on first downs this season. League average is 4.5 yards rushing on first down. Johnson has rushed 49 times for 214 yards (4.4 YPC) on all other downs.
  • Arizona has had seven rushing attempts go for double-digit yardage on the season, the fewest in the NFL.
  • The Cardinals have allowed the most rushing attempts to gain five or more yards (72) and are tied in allowing the most carries of 10 or more yards (30) in the league.
  • Denver ranks third in the league in rate of carries to gain five or more yards (43.9 percent) and fifth in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (16.6 percent).
  • The Broncos have had the lead for just 12.4 percent of their offensive snaps, the lowest rate in the league.
  • Case Keenum ranks fifth in rate of completions to gain 20 or more yards (18.8 percent) but ranks 27th in rate of completions to gain 10 or more yards (42.8 percent).
  • The Cardinals have scored on just 10-of-27 possessions (37.0 percent) that have crossed midfield, the lowest rate in the league. League average is 66.7 percent.
  • The 302 offensive plays (50.3 per game) by the Cardinals are the fewest through a team's first six games since Washington in 2001 (301 plays/50.2 per game).

 

 

Trust (spike starting production)

 

  • Phillip Lindsay: He’s still sharing snaps with two other backs, but he’s had double-digit points in all five of his full games and has led the Denver backfield in touches in all five of those games.  Even on just 10 touches, he was the RB19 a week ago.
  • Emmanuel Sanders: He’s been the better receiver in Denver, finishing as a WR3 or better in five of six games. Arizona hasn’t given up tons of production to opposing wideouts because teams are constantly running down their throats, but when the Cardinals have been giving to the pass, slot wideouts have done the most damage. Arizona has allowed a WR15 week to Trent Taylor and a WR5 week to Adam Thielen over their past two games.
  • David Johnson: This may be the best layout Johnson gets all season in terms of being at home with a tight point spread against a team that has been gashed on the ground over their past three games. It remains to be seen if Arizona can exploit a good matchup on paper with the way their high school level game planning has utilized Johnson, but he’s had at least 20 touches in each of the past three games and has found the end zone in every game but one to start the season. Volume alone may be more than enough with the way Denver has defended the run.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • Royce Freeman: If you’re going to chase a week from Freeman, this is as good as it gets. Even chasing points, the past two weeks, he had led the Denver backfield in snaps in both games. The Broncos have run the ball effectively this season, but just haven’t had any opportunities to stack volume due to chasing points weekly. Arizona is facing 36 touches per game (32nd) to opposing backfields and have allowed the most touchdowns (10) to running backs on the season. If you can't entertain using Freeman, he shouldn't be rostered.

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • Case Keenum: He’s been at his best for fantasy the past two weeks chasing points on the scoreboard, but that may not be in play here. Three of the past four quarterbacks to face the Cardinals have performed below their season average entering the week of the matchup.
  • Demaryius Thomas: Arizona has been far better defending perimeter wideouts and Thomas needs a touchdown. In the three games in which Thomas has found the end zone, he’s been the WR18, WR9 and WR28. In the three games in which he’s failed to reach the paint, he’s been the WR77, WR41 and WR72. Arizona has allowed just two touchdowns to opposing wide receivers on the season and both have been from the slot.
  • Larry Fitzgerald: His eight targets a week ago where the most he’s had since Week 1, but he’s been the WR51 or lower in each of his past five games while running into the worst individual assignment versus Chris Harris in the slot.
  • Josh Rosen: His highest scoring week so far has been QB25. There are better places to hunt for points at the position.

 

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

 

  • Christian Kirk: He leads the team in targets (19) with Rosen under center and has been efficient with those looks. He has caught 15-of-19 targets for 209 yards from Rosen and has turned in back-to-back WR3 or better scoring weeks.
  • Ricky Seals-Jones: He’s received 21.4 percent of the team targets over the past two weeks and is coming off a season-high five receptions. Denver is allowing 10.6 yards per target to opposing tight ends, which ranks 30th in the league.

 

Titans @ Chargers (in London)

 

Tennessee Rank @ LA Chargers Rank
6.5   Spread -6.5  
19.5   Implied Total 26.0  
14.5 30 Points/Gm 29.2 5
17.8 3 Points All./Gm 24.0 15
57.3 30 Plays/Gm 60.8 24
64.7 19 Opp. Plays/Gm 61.2 8
46.2% 6 Rush% 44.4% 8
53.8% 27 Pass% 55.6% 25
44.9% 28 Opp. Rush % 37.9% 15
55.2% 5 Opp. Pass % 62.1% 18

 

  • The Chargers rank second in the league in yardage gained per play on first down (7.6 yards) while the Titans rank 31st (4.7 yards).
  • The Chargers rank second in the league in plays to gain 20 or more yards (35) while the Titans rank last (11).
  • The Titans have scored a touchdown on just 2-of-31 (6.5 percent) first half possessions this season, the lowest rate in the league.
  • Just 35.5 percent (22-of-62) of the Tennessee drives this season have crossed midfield, the lowest rate in the league. League average is 52.0 percent.
  • After allowing opponents to score on 43.3 percent (13-of-30) of their possessions through three weeks (24th), the Chargers have allowed scoring drives on just 27.3 percent (9-of-33) of possessions over the past three weeks (third).
  • 41.8 percent of Melvin Gordon's carries have gained five or more yards, which ranks as the fourth-highest rate in the league (minimum 50 carries). His rates on such carries to start his career has been 26. 1percent, 26.8 percent and 29.6 percent.

 

Trust (spike starting production)

 

  • Melvin Gordon: We’re finally seeing what an efficient version of Gordon looks like and if it wasn’t for Todd Gurley’s dominance, Gordon would be the best fantasy asset at the position in terms of all-around production on the ground, air and near the goal line.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • Keenan Allen: For as disappointed fantasy owners have been by his start and lack of ceiling moments; Allen’s 36-434-1 line is nearly identical to the 33-446-1 line that he had through six games a year ago. He’s still a top-10 receiver in terms of team target share (26.2 percent), but his average depth of target (7.3 yards) has significantly sagged from his 9.3 aDOT a year ago.
  • Dion Lewis: He’s a tough sell on game script potential alone, but outside of that, the Chargers are 19th in receiving points allowed per game to backfields and have allowed top-30 weeks to satellite backs Duke Johnson and Jalen Richard the past two weeks.

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • Philip Rivers: It’s another week where you don’t have to press a streaming option over him, but it’s also another one where he’s in the higher-QB2 bucket than a top option. Tennessee likes to ugly games up and ranks fourth in passing points (12.1) and passing yardage (227.2) allowed per game.
  • Tyrell Williams: Despite his breakout a week ago, he still only caught three passes and Tennessee ranks ninth in 20-yard completions allowed.
  • Austin Ekeler:  He still leads the league in yards per touch (8.6 yards) but has caught just three passes over the past three week and now has had seven or fewer touches in three of the past four games.
  • Marcus Mariota: He has thrown a touchdown pass once every 59 pass attempts to begin the season, ahead of only Josh Allen (69.5) and the Chargers are beginning to right the ship defensively.
  • Derrick Henry: One game he will break off a 60-yard touchdown run and when it happens, it will happen when he rightfully on your bench.
  • Corey Davis: He has a game with 15 targets and one with 13, but averages 5.3 targets per game over his other four games played. He has one week higher than WR42 on the season and the Chargers have allowed lead wideouts to catch just five passes for 45 yards over the past three weeks.

 

Panthers @ Eagles

 

Carolina Rank @ Philadelphia Rank
4.5   Spread -4.5  
20.5   Implied Total 25.0  
24.2 17 Points/Gm 22.8 20
22.8 10 Points All./Gm 19.5 6
63.6 20 Plays/Gm 69.2 4
59.8 4 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.0 14
44.0% 11 Rush% 37.6% 20
56.0% 22 Pass% 62.4% 13
37.1% 11 Opp. Rush % 31.2% 1
62.9% 22 Opp. Pass % 68.8% 32

 

  • Since returning to the lineup, Alshon Jefferey is tied for third in targets (six), tied for first in receptions (four) and first in touchdowns (three) among all wide receivers in the red zone.
  • Corey Clement averages 11.4 yards after the catch, fourth among all running backs. Wendell Smallwood averages 5.4 yards after the catch, 38th of 39 qualifying running backs.
  • Panthers running backs are the only team outside of the Buccaneers backfield yet to have a rushing touchdown on the season.
  • Opposing teams have thrown on 76.5 percent of their red zone plays against Philadelphia, the highest rate in the league.
  • The Panthers are -9 in number of plays to gain 20 or more yards versus the amount they have allowed, the largest differential in the league.
  • Just 36.3 percent of the completions against the Eagles have gained 10 or more yards, the lowest rate in the league. The rest of the league average is 46.5 percent.

 

 

Trust (spike starting production)

 

  • Carson Wentz: He’s scored more points than the previous game in each of his starts as he’s completely knocked any rust off. The Panthers have allowed multiple touchdown passes in each of their past four games and Wentz threw three scores against this defense on the road a year ago.
  • Alshon Jeffery: He’s received 23.9 percent of the team targets since returning and has eight receptions in two of three games.
  • Zach Ertz: The nine targets he had a week ago were the “fewest” he’s had in a game this season. Carolina has allowed opposing tight ends to catch 25-of-32 targets for 279 yards and three touchdowns over their past four games.
  • Christian McCaffrey: Even if what was a letdown a week ago, he still managed to be the RB16 because his floor is so high. 60.4 percent of the points the Eagles have allowed to backfields have come through the passing game, the highest rate in the league and they have allowed nine or more receptions to a back in two of their past three games.
  • Cam Newton: He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in four straight games and still is adding 7.8 points per game rushing on top of whatever you get passing. The Eagles struggled to contain Marcus Mariota (10-46-1) on the ground two weeks ago, the only mobile quarterback they’ve faced on the season and Newton ran wild on them last year, rushing 11 times for 71 yards and a score.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • Devin Funchess: He’s had at least 20 percent of the team targets in four straight games but is still a touchdown dependent option as he has five or fewer catches in every game but one to go along with fewer than 80 receiving yards in every game on the season. That said, both of those marks can be elevated here against a defense that ranks 31st in receptions (16) and 28th in yardage (199.5) allowed per game to opposing receivers.
  • Corey Clement: Both he and Wendell Smallwood are FLEX options. We’ve now had one game in which Clement out-touched Smallwood but was outscored by him and another in which Smallwood out-touched Clement and was outscored, but Clement is finally nearly back to full health and the better player here overall to latch onto taking over as the 1A option in this backfield split.
  • Greg Olsen: He played 98 percent of the snaps in his return to the lineup a week ago and saw seven targets. The Eagles have been solid defending the tight end position overall but have allowed five catches to both Kyle Rudolph and Eric Ebron in two of their past four games while facing the Titans and Giants minus Evan Engram in the other two games.

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • Nelson Agholor: He’s had just nine targets over the past two weeks and five or fewer looks in three of this past four games. His 91 yards a week ago came on a fluky play when Wentz was hit and the other on a broken play, making him far too unreliable to count on behind Ertz and Jeffery.

 

Vikings @ Jets

 

Minnesota Rank @ NY Jets Rank
-3   Spread 3  
25.0   Implied Total 22.0  
23.3 19 Points/Gm 27.5 11
24.7 19 Points All./Gm 23.2 14
67.7 7 Plays/Gm 60.8 25
59.8 6 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.5 27
31.5% 30 Rush% 47.4% 3
68.5% 3 Pass% 52.6% 30
40.1% 18 Opp. Rush % 37.2% 12
59.9% 15 Opp. Pass % 62.8% 21

 

  • Adam Thielen is the first player have 100-yards receiving in each of his team's first six games of a season since Charley Hennigan in 1961.
  • Thielen leads the league in first down receptions (38) and is second in the league in yards after the catch (254 yards).
  • Thielen leads the league in targets (24), receptions (16) and first downs (14) on third downs this season.
  • The Vikings have allowed teams to convert just 25 percent (16-of-64) of their third down plays, the lowest rate in the league. League average is 40.2 percent.
  • The Jets have converted just 30 percent (6-of-20) of their red zone opportunities into touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league.
  • The Jets have run on 61.2 percent (30-of-49) of their red zone plays this season, the highest rate in the league.
  • Sam Darnold is tied with Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers for the league lead with seven touchdown passes from outside of the red zone.

 

Trust (spike starting production)

 

  • Adam Thielen: He leads the league in just about everything related to wide receivers so far and we love smashing the Jets through slot play. To begin the season, the Jets have allowed opposing wideouts to post lines of 8-100-1, 8-81-1, 9-122-0, 11-142-0, 11-126-1 and 7-86-1 through the slot.
  • Stefon Diggs: He’s taken a backseat to Thielen in weeks where he draws top perimeter play, but the Jets secondary is banged up with injuries to Trumaine Johnson and Buster Skrine and they have allowed 15 or more points to five wideouts over their past three games, including two sets of teammates.
  • Kirk Cousins: He’s been in the back half of quarterback scoring in three of his past four games, but the Jets have allowed a 300-yard passer and a top-10 scorer three games in a row.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • Latavius Murray: With Dalvin Cook’s latest setback, we still can’t count on him returning to the lineup. If that’s the case once again, then Murray is an RB2 option. Murray has totaled 45-of-63 (71.4 percent) backfield touches with Cook out of the lineup. The Jets rank 20th in yards from scrimmage (134.2) allowed to opposing backfields.

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • Kyle Rudolph: He’s scored fewer points than the week prior in three straight games and is coming off his lowest-scoring game of the season. To compound matters, he has just 11.9 percent of the team targets now on the season, leaving him as a touchdown-dependent fantasy option.
  • Sam Darnold: He’s posted 18 points in each of his past two games in which he’s built two huge leads as a favorite, but this week he’s a dog against a Minnesota defense that may be finding their way through a rocky start to the season, allowing just three offensive touchdowns over their past two games,
  • Isaiah Crowell/Bilal Powell: Crowell has run extremely hot or extremely cold to start the season while Powell has zero receptions in three of his past four games. Minnesota ranks ninth in rushing yards allowed (77) per game to backfields.

 

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

 

  • Jermaine Kearse: With Quincy Enunwa sidelined, Kearse takes over as the primary slot option and is coming off a 9-94 game on a team-high 10 targets. Enunwa’s role was the most-targeted passing option in this offense, making Kearse a viable pickup as a floor play. 

 

Bills @ Colts

 

Buffalo Rank @ Indianapolis Rank
6.5   Spread -6.5  
18.0   Implied Total 24.5  
12.7 32 Points/Gm 25.3 13
23.0 12 Points All./Gm 30.0 30
60.3 29 Plays/Gm 70.5 3
63.0 17 Opp. Plays/Gm 69.5 28
46.4% 5 Rush% 29.3% 32
53.6% 28 Pass% 70.7% 1
38.9% 17 Opp. Rush % 41.0% 20
61.1% 16 Opp. Pass % 59.0% 13

 

  • The Colts have allowed 37 or more points in three straight games for the first time since 2001.
  • The Bills have scored a touchdown on a league-worst 10 percent (7-of-70) of their drives this season.
  • Opponents have scored a touchdown on just 4-of-44 drives (9.1 percent) against the Bills over the past four weeks, the second-lowest rate in the league over that span.
  • Buffalo is allowing 4.9 yards per play on defense, third in the league.
  • The Bills are allowing 9.4 yards per completion, the fewest in the league.
  • Andrew Luck is averaging 9.6 yards per completion, the lowest of all full-season starting quarterbacks.
  • Eric Ebron has been targeted on 25.2 percent of his routes, trailing only Zach Ertz (27.1 percent) for all tight ends.

 

Trust (spike starting production)

 

  • Eric Ebron: He’s had 43 targets (second), 23 catches (third), 249 yards (fifth) and the most receiving touchdowns (four) at the tight end position over the past four weeks with Jack Doyle sidelined. The Bills have only faced two top-12 tight ends on the season and have allowed each of Kyle Rudolph and Jimmy Graham to reach the end zone.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • LeSean McCoy: With 26 and 19 touches over the past two games, he’s turned in RB25 and RB20 production. He may never find the end zone given the state of this offense, but the Colts have given up bulk yardage to opposing backs, allowing 146 yards from scrimmage per game (22nd) to backfields.
  • Marlon Mack: He injected life into a dead running game a week ago, turning in 89 yards in a negative game script. Seven of Mack’s 12 carries went for six yards or more with five runs going for at least nine yards. The Bills have been much better the past four weeks against backfields (3.7 YPC) than the start of their season and Mack still has to repeat his performance, but as a home favorite, he should be rewarded the opportunity to do so, placing him in the RB2 mix.

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • Andrew Luck: He’s found his stride for fantasy though immense volume, throwing 11 touchdown passes over the past three games with a skeleton crew on offense. But the Bills have held five consecutive quarterbacks below their seasonal average entering the game and that list of passers are no pushovers with Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins and Philip Rivers making up the high-end of the list outside of Marcus Mariota.
  • Nyheim Hines: With Mack returning, Hines played 43.5 percent of the snaps, his lowest total in a game since Week 2 when Mack was last active. Hines also had just five touches, matching a season-low, which also coincided with the last game that Mack was active. On top of that, as a home favorite, Hines’ pass-catching role may not be needed.
  • Bills QB: They may turn to Derek Anderson here just to get through the game with minimal mistakes. Yes, that was a real sentence. Derek Anderson – who has 60 career interceptions to 60 career touchdowns – is the ball-protecting play. Nathan Peterman has now thrown 79 passes in his brief NFL career and has now thrown nine interceptions (11.4 percent).

 

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

 

  • Chester Rogers: He’s had three consecutive top-25 scoring weeks with double-digit targets in all three games. With T.Y. Hilton’s status in doubt, Rogers is the only stable option from the receiving unit.

 

Patriots @ Bears

 

New England Rank @ Chicago Rank
-3.5   Spread 3.5  
26.5   Implied Total 23.0  
29.3 4 Points/Gm 27.8 10
24.7 18 Points All./Gm 19.2 4
66.2 9 Plays/Gm 64.0 19
64.8 20 Opp. Plays/Gm 61.2 10
44.1% 10 Rush% 45.9% 7
55.9% 23 Pass% 54.1% 26
37.8% 14 Opp. Rush % 35.0% 5
62.2% 19 Opp. Pass % 65.0% 28

 

  • Since being activated in Week 2, Sony Michel is second in the league in red zone carries (21), fifth in carries inside of the 10-yard line (11) and tied for fourth in carries inside of the 5-yard line (seven).
  • The Bears are the only team that has yet to allow a rushing touchdown.
  • Chicago has allowed the lowest rate of runs to gain five or more yards (28.9 percent) and 10 or more yards (7.5 percent) on the season.
  • Josh Gordon played 80.8 percent of the New England offensive snaps in Week 6 after playing 22.2 and 26.1 percent over his previous two games when active with the Patriots.
  • Despite having a bye already, the Bears have allowed the third-most passing yardage (667 yards) and the most passing touchdowns (eight) in the 4th quarter this season.
  • Mitchell Trubisky has completed 69.2 percent of his passes to wide receivers to this season, the fifth-highest rate in the league.
  • Jordan Howard's snap share through five games: 71.4 percent, 72.7 percent, 62.2 percent, 54.1 percent and 51.4 percent.
  • Tarik Cohen's snap share through five games: 40 percent, 31.8 percent, 40.5 percent, 47.5 percent and 48.6 percent.

 

Trust (spike starting production)

 

  • Tom Brady: He’s averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt over his past three games and while those three matchups were all favorable and at home, we may have been premature on elevating the Bears defense that just allowed 380 yards to Brock Osweiler.
  • Sony Michel: He’s gone over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of the past three games with at least 19 touches in all of those weeks. The Bears run defense has been strong in totality, but they just allowed 100 yards rushing to Frank Gore while Michel is stacking too many touches near the money zone to discount.
  • James White:  He’s been an RB2 or better in every game this season and a top-15 back in three straight games. He leads the team in red zone targets (nine) and is adding a touch of rushing output each game (24.8 yards) as he’s only 22 yards short from his career high for rushing yards in a season. The Bears rank fifth in receptions allowed to backfields, but Kenyan Drake is the best receiving back they have faced through five games.
  • Tarik Cohen: His role in the offense has grown after a slow start, catching seven passes in each of the past two games. New England has allowed 5-105 to Kareem Hunt and 7-45 to Nyheim Hines over their past two games and Cohen is someone who can exploit their linebacking group in space. Cohen should be a part of the natural game plan once again and has added appeal if the Bears can’t slow down the Patriots.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • Rob Gronkowski: He still hasn’t had more than 20 percent of the team targets in a game since Week 1 and amazingly only has had 1-of-28 team targets in the red zone come in his direction. This week would be a good week to break that trend as the Bears have allowed an opposing tight end to score a touchdown in each of the past four games.
  • Julian Edelman: He’s returned to catch 11-of-16 targets for 111 yards and a score over the past two weeks. He also has matched White for the team lead in red zone targets over that span with four.
  • Josh Gordon: He finally got a full workload and led the team with 26 percent of their targets and 28 percent of their air yards. If Gordon is going to turn in usage to that degree, that makes him someone that you plug in weekly and live with the floor moments because of the upside.
  • Mitchell Trubisky: He’s thrown for 300-yards and three touchdowns with over 10.0 yards per pass attempt in back-to-back games. His overall numbers last week were better than he played, but what is really intriguing about Trubisky is that he’s really starting to be used as a rusher on top of that output. He has 53 and 47 yards on the ground in those games and is averaging 4.5 rushing points per game (fourth) now on the season.  His ceiling the past two weeks may not be his new normal, but his floor can be elevated if that rushing output stays in play.
  • Allen Robinson: He’s scored in each of his past two games, but still has volume concerns limiting his output outside of finding the end zone. Robinson has seven of fewer targets in every game but one and is still averaging just 56.2 yards per game receiving. That said, New England is 23rd in touchdown rate allowed to opposing wideouts (6.7 percent) and has allowed 10 WR3 or better games through six weeks.
  • Taylor Gabriel: He’s caught all 12 of his targets the past two games and has the only two 100-yard receiving games of his career. You can keep riding the wave since he played more snaps and ran more routes than Anthony Miller in his return, but Gabriel received just 16.1 percent of the team targets, his lowest rate in a game since Week 1. When the inevitable regression on his efficiency per target hits his floor is back to a boom-or-bust WR3, but the Patriots have had difficulty stopping speed players to start the season.

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • Jordan Howard: He’s played fewer and fewer snaps as the season has gone on and after receiving nine targets through two games, he has just four over the past three games, which makes his floor nearly bottomless. That is exactly what has played out as he’s been the RB57 and the RB42 over his past two games, making him someone that has to find the end zone given his depressed usage.
  • Trey Burton: Similar to Robinson, Burton has some touchdown deodorant masking his true floor. His 3.0 receptions and 39.8 yards per game are the lowest totals for all top-12 tight ends on the season and he’s averaging just 4.6 targets per game, which is ahead of only O.J. Howard.

 

Browns @ Buccaneers

 

Cleveland Rank @ Tampa Bay Rank
3   Spread -3  
23.3   Implied Total 26.3  
21.3 23 Points/Gm 28.2 8
25.2 20 Points All./Gm 34.6 32
73.5 2 Plays/Gm 62.4 21
72.7 32 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.8 18
40.4% 16 Rush% 35.6% 26
59.6% 17 Pass% 64.4% 7
40.8% 19 Opp. Rush % 35.1% 6
59.2% 14 Opp. Pass % 64.9% 27

 

  • The Buccaneers are the only team in the league that has had every game they've been involved in go over the game total.
  • The Browns have had a league-leading 15 possessions begin on their opponent's side of the field. They have scored a touchdown on just three (20 percent) of those possessions.
  • The Buccaneers have turned the ball over on a league-high 20.4 percent of their possessions.
  • Tampa Bay ranks first in the league in yards per play on offense (7.2 yards) and ranks last in yards per play allowed (6.9) defensively.
  • Tampa Bay is allowing 4.2 offensive touchdowns per game, the most in the league.
  • Opposing teams have converted a league-high 93.8 percent (15-of-16) of their red zone opportunities into touchdowns against Tampa Bay. The rest of the league average is 55.4 percent.
  • Since Baker Mayfield took over, just 44.8 percent (13-of-29) of Jarvis Landry's targets have been deemed catchable per Pro Football Focus, the fourth-lowest rate for all wideouts with double-digit targets over the span.
  • Over his past six starts dating back to his return from a shoulder injury a year ago, Jameis Winston is averaging 329.8 passing yards, 8.8 passing yards per attempt and 20.6 fantasy points per game.

 

Trust (spike starting production)

 

  • David Njoku: Since Mayfield took over the starter in Week 4, Njoku ranks third of all tight ends in targets (30), tied for third in receptions (18), sixth in receiving yardage (176), and sixth in fantasy points (41.6). Tampa Bay has allowed a top-12 tight end in every game this season and are allowing a league-high 97.2 yards per game to the position.
  • Jarvis Landry: He’s had a low floor creep in due to receiving more uncatchable targets, but the Buccaneers defense has been the elixir to cure all inefficiencies so far. The Bucs are allowing a league-high 8.4 receptions and 22.5 fantasy points per game to opposing lead receivers.
  • Baker Mayfield: He’s struggled the past two weeks but struggling versus the Ravens and Chargers can be overlooked if he can exploit this matchup like he should. Tampa Bay has allowed a 300-yard passer in every game this season and ranks last in the league in completion rate (76.8 percent), yards per attempt (9.3), touchdown rate (8.8 percent) and passing points (27.1) per game to opposing passers.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • Jameis Winston: The Bucs are really only built to do one thing well and it doesn’t matter if Winston makes a few mistakes per game because the volume and surrounding talent in the passing game are among the league’s best. The only sliver of a rain cloud is that every quarterback to face the Browns but one has scored below their base rate entering their game versus Cleveland.
  • Mike Evans: His hot start has cooled off with just 10 catches for 117 yards over the past two games. He received a season-low five targets last week and will match up with Denzel Ward, but the Browns have allowed big games on the season to Michael Thomas (12-89-2), Antonio Brown (9-93-1) and Amari Cooper (8-128-1) on the season.
  • O.J. Howard: He’s been a top-7 scorer in each of his past three full games, but we’ve yet to see the bust to his boom from receiving four or fewer targets in every game but one. The Browns lost Joe Schobert and his backup James Burgess in the middle of the field for this game and the only tangible tight end they’ve faced so far (Jared Cook) sliced them up.
  • Carlos Hyde: We’ve seen his floor exposed now when he fails to score a touchdown as he’s been the RB33 and the RB52 the past two weeks. But he’s still not giving any ground up to Nick Chubb at all to this point and the Bucs may be without Gerald McCoy and have allowed an opposing running back to score in every game but one.
  • DeSean Jackson: He’s received 12 targets from Winston, tied for the team lead despite playing behind Adam Humphries. He and Winston still haven’t established their deep connection, but Cleveland has allowed 12 receptions of 20 or more yards over the past three weeks, 22nd in the league.
  • Chris Godwin: He was fourth in the wide receiver pecking order last week as he ran fewer routes than Evans, Jackson and Humphries, but the offense has a clear plan for him in the red zone as he had two more targets and a score inside of the 10-yard line.  He now has seven targets and four touchdowns in that area of the field while the rest of the team has seven targets and three touchdowns in those spots. He also is tied with Jackson with 12 targets from Winston this season.
  • Peyton Barber: He out-snapped Ronald Jones 41-12 last week as he’s still the lead back. His 106 yards were more than the 92 he totaled over his previous three games. We need to see him do it against a non-Falcons opponent, but the Browns have struggled to defend the run as well, allowing 122.2 rushing yards per game (29th) to backfields.

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • Duke Johnson: You can swing on the matchup and game total elevating his outlook, but he’s still yet to surpass six touches in any game this season, which is far too low to willing invest heavily in.

 

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

 

  • Antonio Callaway:  He’s been one of the worst receivers in the league over the past four weeks, but the Browns are cash-poor at wide receiver, which is why Callaway still has 34 targets over that span and has 145 more air yards than the next closest Cleveland pass catcher. You need to be desperate, but against a Tampa Bay secondary that has been giving to any and all comers, you can hold your nose and pray for a home run ball to finally connect.

 

Texans @ Jaguars

 

Houston Rank @ Jacksonville Rank
4.5   Spread -4.5  
19.0   Implied Total 23.5  
22.5 21 Points/Gm 18.2 29
22.8 11 Points All./Gm 21.0 9
68.7 6 Plays/Gm 65.2 13
65.0 22 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.3 15
41.0% 15 Rush% 35.8% 23
59.0% 18 Pass% 64.2% 10
42.3% 22 Opp. Rush % 44.9% 29
57.7% 11 Opp. Pass % 55.1% 4

 

  • Houston ranks 31st in red zone touchdown rate (34.6 percent) while Jacksonville ranks 30th (38.5 percent).
  • Deshaun Watson has completed 14-of-37 passes (37.8 percent) in the red zone, the lowest rate for all 22 quarterbacks with 20 or more red zone pass attempts.
  • Watson has been hit on 15.8 percent of his dropbacks, the highest rate in the league.
  • Jacksonville ranks second in yards per play allowed (4.9 yards) while Houston ranks seventh (5.3).
  • DeAndre Hopkins is tied for the league lead in receptions to gain double-digit yardage (31) and leads the league in catches that have gained 20 or more yards (12).
  • Jacksonville has 11 fewer takeaways and nine fewer sacks than they did at this point of last season.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • DeAndre Hopkins: We seen last week that he still can battle through a tough individual assignment and that’s what he did last year versus the Jaguars in both matchups. Despite catching 11-of-29 targets for 135 yards, he found the end zone in both meetings.
  • T.J. Yeldon: Any time we think we have a part of this offense figured out, they remind us that they can lay an egg at any time. Yeldon managed just 11 touches last week, but still managed 70 yards from scrimmage. His volume should expand as a home favorite, but the matchup will require his receiving ability. Houston ranks sixth in rushing points allowed (9.2) per game to backfields but ranks 26th in receiving points (13.7) per game to the position.
  • Keke Coutee: His targets have dropped each week which is a problem since he receives so many looks that are an extension of the run game. He needs high-volume to make that usage work for fantasy. Jacksonville just struggled versus Cole Beasley on a season-high 11 targets and have still defended the perimeter as good as anyone, so Coutee may find that volume spike necessary to keep him in play as a WR3.
  • Dede Westbrook/Donte Moncrief: We’ve steadily grasped at figuring out which WR3 option to play from this group, but the two that are providing the most usable moments at Westbrook and Moncrief. Westbrook has just five targets in each of the past two games but draws a favorable matchup inside against Kareem Jackson while Moncrief will lineup opposite of Shareece Wright.

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • Deshaun Watson: Placing him here to start the week because his injury last week was a factor as he ran only once last week outside a kneel down after rushing for 40 yards per game through five weeks. He needs his legs this week against a defense that has allowed 82 yards on the ground to Dak Prescott and 51 yards to Marcus Mariota. This is something that dates back to last season as Jacksonville allowed over two rushing points per game to all of the mobile quarterbacks they faced. If Watson is fully healthy, then bump him up a bit. On the passing end, he struggled at home against a Bills defense, attempting a season-low 25 passes. The Jaguars haven’t been the juggernaut on defense that they were a year ago, but they’ve still been plenty strong, allowing more than 234 yards passing in just one game.
  • Will Fuller: He’s played in full the past weeks but has managed to receive just six targets total. No team has allowed fewer pass plays (13) of over 20 yards than Jacksonville.
  • Blake Bortles: After an awful start to the season, the Houston defense has turned in back-to-back strong outing versus the pass, but they were games against Dak Prescott and Josh Allen/Nathan Peterman. Bortles has thrown for multiple scores in each of his past three meetings against Houston at home, but in a game with a low game total and Bortles being so uneven to date. It’s hard to see him being higher than a mid-QB2 this week on the surface.
  • Lamar Miller: He’s posted 70, 51 and 71 yards from scrimmage over his past three full games. He needs to fall into the end zone to get into RB2 territory but is still a FLEX option.

 

Lions @ Dolphins

 

Detroit Rank @ Miami Rank
-2.5   Spread 2.5  
24.5   Implied Total 22.0  
25.0 14 Points/Gm 21.7 22
27.4 25 Points All./Gm 24.2 17
64.0 18 Plays/Gm 55.8 31
61.4 12 Opp. Plays/Gm 66.8 25
35.6% 24 Rush% 43.3% 12
64.4% 9 Pass% 56.7% 21
45.0% 30 Opp. Rush % 44.1% 25
55.1% 3 Opp. Pass % 55.9% 8

 

  • 24-of-27 (88.9 percent) of Kenny Golladay's receptions have resulted in a first down, the highest rate in the league.
  • Kerryon Johnson has had 43.5 percent of the Detroit backfield touches but has accounted for 54.6 percent of their yardage. That +11.2 percent rate in yardage from touch volume ranks fifth among all running backs.
  • LeGarrette Blount's 2.62 yards per touch ranks last among the 47 running backs with 50 or more touches on the season.
  • Miami ranks 31st in percentage of points allowed to running backs (41.9 percent) while Detroit ranks 30th (41.7 percent).
  • The Lions are allowing 6.4 yards per carry on first down rushing attempts, the highest rate in the league. League average is 4.52 yards per carry.
  • Frank Gore is the first player at age 35 or older to rush for 100 yards in a game since Emmitt Smith in 2004.
  • Albert Wilson is the first Miami receiver to have multiple touchdowns of 70 yards or longer in the same season since Chris Chambers in 2004.

 

 

Trust (spike starting production)


  • Matthew Stafford: Miami was fortunate to be so good against passers for fantasy to date, but things finally caught up to them last week in the touchdown department as they allowed their first top-12 scorer on the season. The Dolphins still rank ninth in passing points allowed (13.9) per game but rank 21st in passing yardage (289.5 yards) and 27th in yards per attempt (8.1) to passers.
  • Golden Tate: He leads the team with 10.2 targets per game and Miami is allowing a league-high 7.0 yards after the catch to opposing receivers, which is right in Tate’s wheelhouse.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • Kenny Golladay: He’s been a top-20 receiver in four of five games and is coming off a season-high 34.6 percent of the team targets. He’s also taken the team lead in air yardage opportunity per game.
  • Kerryon Johnson: He’s hard to give more than push past RB2 status due to Blount still taking goal line reps, but Johnson has double-digit scoring output in four straight games while Miami ranks 26th in rushing points (15.3) allowed per game.
  • Kenyan Drake: He’s been on the shorter end of the rushing split for four weeks running, but he is still making his headway in the passing game, receiving 17.4 percent of the team targets, which makes him a better weekly option when playing this backfield. Detroit is 31st in rushing yardage allowed to backfields, but also 21st in receiving points allowed per game (12.9).

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • Marvin Jones: You keep playing him for the touchdown ability as he leads the team in red zone targets (eight), but he has four or fewer catches in every game this season, has just 16.7 percent of the team targets and has yet to reach 70 yards in a game this season.
  • Theo Riddick: There’s a case to be made on matchup alone as Miami is 30th in receiving points allowed per game, but Riddick has just three, five and five touches over the past three games.
  • Miami WRs: You still need to proceed with caution with this unit as Kenny Stills is on the field the most and Danny Amendola is second behind him, but Albert Wilson starting to pull away as the guy to target in this passing game if you even want to touch it at all. He now leads the team in targets (32) and after running 12.3 routes per game through three weeks, he’s running 28.7 per game over the past three games.
  • Brock Osweiler: He is coming off a career game, but he was also 8-10 for 157 yards with two touchdowns in the 4th quarter. Those touchdowns were all yards after the catch, so it’s hard to believe that he can roll that over and I believe the Dolphins will run the ball effectively here.

 

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

 

  • Frank Gore: He’s out-carried Drake in each of the past four games and may get a crack at goal line opportunities moving forward. The Lions have been torched on the ground so far, allowing 143.8 rushing yards per game to backfields (31st).

 

Saints @ Ravens


New Orleans Rank @ Baltimore Rank
2.5   Spread -2.5  
23.5   Implied Total 26.0  
36.0 1 Points/Gm 25.5 12
28.0 26 Points All./Gm 12.8 1
65.4 12 Plays/Gm 75.8 1
60.2 7 Opp. Plays/Gm 61.2 9
38.8% 18 Rush% 38.2% 19
61.2% 15 Pass% 61.8% 14
38.5% 16 Opp. Rush % 34.6% 4
61.5% 17 Opp. Pass % 65.4%  

 

  • Baltimore ranks first in total yards allowed per game (85.5) to opposing backfields while New Orleans ranks third (94.0).
  • The Ravens have hurried opponents on 15.6 percent of their dropbacks, the highest rate in the league. The Saints have hurried opponents on 14.3 percent of dropbacks, second in the league.
  • New Orleans is averaging 17.2 plays per game in the red zone, the most in the league.
  • Baltimore is facing 5.7 red zone plays per game, the second-fewest in the league.
  • The Ravens are the only team in the league that has yet to allow a touchdown in the second half of a game this season. They have outscored opponents 62-12 in the second half this season, the largest differential in the league.
  • New Orleans leads the league in second half scoring at 18.6 points per game.
  • Drew Brees has finished as a top-12 fantasy scorer in just 10-of-28 games outdoors on the road over the previous five seasons into this one. In those games, he's averaged 16.2 points per game as opposed to 21.3 points per game otherwise over that span.
  • Over that span, Baltimore has allowed a top-12 scoring quarterback in just 12-of-42 games at home, with just three over their past 18 games in Baltimore since the start of the 2016 season.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • Alvin Kamara: He played a season-low 31 snaps before the bye and had just nine touches, but it remains to be seen if that was just circumstance of him having a heavy workload prior to Mark Ingram’s return and the game being under control early. Either way, the Ravens run defense has been one to avoid so far, elevating Kamara’s role in the receiving game.
  • Michael Thomas: He has caught an unreal 46-of-49 targets on the season, but his hot start has cooled heavily, catching just four passes in each of his past two games while the Ravens haven’t allowed any lead wideout to catch more than five passes or reach 70 yards in a game yet this season, but have allowed touchdowns to A.J. Green (x3) and Antonio Brown if looking to get on the board with a score.
  • Joe Flacco: He trails only Andrew Luck in pass attempts per game (44.0) and this should be another high-volume game as the Saints have nuked the run so far on the season. The Saints are trending positively since getting hammered by Matt Ryan in Week 3, but that was also against Eli Manning and Alex Smith. At home in a game where Baltimore should struggle to run, Flacco is in play as a streaming option this week for those who miss out on Baker Mayfield.
  • John Brown: He leads the league in targets on throws 15 yards or further downfield with 25, which make up 53.2 percent of his season-long targets, the highest rate in the league. Unfortunately, those types of targets come with hyper volatility as Flacco has now connected with Brown on just 44.7 percent of their targets. Opposing passers have completed 21-of-35 passes (60 percent) 15 yards or further downfield against the Saints, the highest rate in the league. Despite having a bye, the Saints have allowed the second-most passing yardage (706 yards) on those throws, trailing only the chiefs (709 yards).
  • Michael Crabtree: The targets (9.2 per game) are still tangible and he has six or more receptions in three of his past four games.

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • Drew Brees: You don’t have to go out and stream for him, but his ceiling has been limited in these outdoor road games while the Ravens matchup in itself is a poor one on paper. Baltimore is among the league leaders in all passing statistics, but it is of note that they have faced the Bills QB, Marcus Mariota, Baker Mayfield and Case Keenum in four of their six games.
  • Mark Ingram: He found the end zone twice in his return, but was largely ho-hum with his touches, turning 18 of them into 73 total yards. The Saints can provide scoring opportunities at any moment, but the Ravens rank fifth in yards per carry (3.5), sixth in rushing yards (66.8) allowed per game and have allowed just one rushing touchdown on the season to opposing backfields.
  • Alex Collins: He found the end zone twice last week and he’ll need to do so again this week as the Saints rank first in yards per carry (2.8) allowed to opposing backfields and haven’t allowed any rusher to reach 50 yards on the ground since Week 1.
  • Ben Watson: He’s hardly made an impact, averaging 3.4 catches for 37.4 yards per game on just 4.4 targets. You need a touchdown from him to squeeze any fantasy juice.

 

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

 

  • Willie Snead: He has seven or more targets in each of the past three games with 18 receptions over that span. The Saints are the weakest on the interior where they lost Patrick Robinson for the season, leaving Snead as a floor-based option for anyone thin at their WR3/FLEX spot.
  • Javorius Allen: He’s out-targeted Collins 30-14 in the passing game and while the Saints have smothered the run, opposing backs have tallied eight and nine receptions against them over their past two games.

 

Cowboys @ Washington

 

Dallas Rank @ Washington Rank
1.5   Spread -1.5  
20.0   Implied Total 21.5  
20.5 25 Points/Gm 21.2 24
17.2 2 Points All./Gm 20.8 8
60.3 28 Plays/Gm 65.6 10
61.8 13 Opp. Plays/Gm 59.8 5
47.5% 2 Rush% 44.2% 9
52.5% 31 Pass% 55.8% 24
42.3% 23 Opp. Rush % 36.8% 10
57.7% 10 Opp. Pass % 63.2% 23

 

  • The Cowboys are 4-0 against Washington with Dak Prescott as their quarterback, their longest winning streak in the rivalry since the 2003-2004 seasons.
  • In three career games versus Washington, Ezekiel Elliott averages 26.3 touches, 120.3 yards from scrimmage and 22.4 fantasy points per game with five touchdowns.
  • The Cowboys are allowing just 3.9 yards per play on first down, the fewest in the league.
  • Washington has scored a touchdown on just 1-of-21 second half possessions, the fewest in the league.
  • Adrian Peterson has received 36.2 percent of the offensive opportunities for Washington when they are tied or ahead in the game. That number is 16.8 percent when Washington has been trailing.
  • Just 10.1 percent of the completions against the Cowboys have gained 20 or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.

 

Trust (spike starting production)

 

  • Ezekiel Elliott: He has the most bankable workload in the league with 50.4 percent of the Dallas offensive touches. Washington ranks seventh in rushing yardage allowed (69.4) per game, but they have faced just one team in the top half of the league in rushing output per game and have allowed a rushing touchdown to a running back in every game but one.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • Adrian Peterson: He’s a home favorite, so we’re looking to guess the script correctly for this first time this season, but Peterson could disappear in a heartbeat should that script turn negative at any point.
  • Jordan Reed: He’s averaging 45 receiving yards per game with a high of 65 through five games, but he still had a team-high nine targets last week while Dallas is 21st in receptions allowed (5.5) to opposing tight ends.
  • Chris Thompson: Him sitting last week appears to be precautionary and his rib injury isn't expected to be serious. He's also in the "guess the game script" bucket that goes along with Peterson, but Thompson has double-digit scoring output in three of four games.

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • Dak Prescott: His big fantasy day in Week 6 stemmed from 14.2 rushing points after having just 12.1 rushing points for the season prior. If he’s going to start consistently running like he’s capable of, then he can get back into the streaming mix, but his passing line was still on par with his seasonal output for fantasy purposes.
  • Dallas WRs: There’s still nobody here to have weekly faith in with the Cowboys remaining such a low-volume offense. It is worth nothing that rookie Michael Gallup ran a season-high 29 pass routes after averaging 15.4 per game coming into the game.
  • Washington WRs: Washington wide receivers have tallied just 46 receptions on the season, ahead of only the Bills (41).
  • Alex Smith: He’s completely reverted back into the old version of himself, finishing in the back half of positional scoring in four straight games.

 

Rams @ 49ers

 

LA Rams Rank @ San Francisco Rank
-11   Spread 11  
32.0   Implied Total 21.0  
32.7 3 Points/Gm 24.7 16
19.7 7 Points All./Gm 29.8 29
64.8 15 Plays/Gm 65.0 14
57.5 1 Opp. Plays/Gm 66.3 24
47.0% 4 Rush% 42.8% 13
53.0% 29 Pass% 57.2% 20
35.9% 7 Opp. Rush % 37.4% 13
64.1% 26 Opp. Pass % 62.6% 20

 

  • The Rams have trailed for just 21.9 percent of their offensive snaps, the lowest rate in the league.
  • Todd Gurley leads the league with 88.4 fantasy points in the red zone this season. Those points alone would have him as the RB11 on the season.
  • Gurley has 28 touches or targets inside of the 10-yard line this season, the most in the league. The next highest player (James Conner) has 16.
  • Rams wide receivers have 1,518 receiving yards on the season, the most for any receiving group in the league.
  • The 49ers are -11 in turnover differential on the season, the worst in the league.
  • The San Francisco backfield averages 192.8 yards from scrimmage per game, trailing only the Chargers (204.7 yards) on the season.

 

Trust (spike starting production)

 

  • Todd Gurley: No running back is used in a better fashion for monster fantasy games. The Rams heavy use of three wide receiver sets steadily gives him soft fronts to run against, he’s used in the passing game and he accumulates the highest amount of touches near the end zone in the league.
  • Robert Woods: With Cooper Kupp sidelined, Woods has run 44 percent and 50 percent of his routes from the slot over the past two weeks. He’s also been ultra-consistent, posting at least six catches or 90 yards in five straight games.
  • Brandin Cooks: He had a quiet Week 6 after failing to practice until late in the week, but he’s in a bounce back spot against a San Francisco defense on short week that just allowed six receptions of 20-plus yards on Monday Night.
  • Jared Goff: As mentioned last week, Gurley’s touchdown prowess has given Goff a lower floor than his passing peripherals suggest he should have, but the 49es have been a target all season, allowing 20-plus fantasy points to every quarterback this season with the exception of Josh Rosen.
  • George Kittle: He leads the position in yards after the catch (301) and opposing teams target their tight ends 24.5 percent of the time against the Rams, which is the second-highest rate in the league at the position.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • Matt Breida: He has double-digit fantasy points in five of six games, and the San Francisco backfield has steadily churned out tangible production weekly, even in major losses. The Rams have been especially giving to backfields in the passing game, ranking 24th in receptions allowed per game (6.7) to backfields. Raheem Mostert even makes for a deep dart as h has overtaken Alfred Morris behind Breida, but Mostert is more of a leap of faith after just one week of usage.
  • Marquise Goodwin: Finally, fully healthy, Goodwin reminded us of his splash-play ability, catching touchdowns of 67 and 30 yards. He still only had only five targets, though, which leaves him a low floor when those deep shots aren’t connecting.
  • CJ Beathard: He has at least 17 fantasy points in all three of his starts this season with multiple touchdown passes in each game. The Rams have allowed 17 or more fantasy points in four consecutive games to opposing passers with 10 touchdowns to one interception over that span.

 

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

 

  • Josh Reynolds: He’s a lower-floor play, but with Kupp definitely out heading into the game, Reynolds will get a full game to work with against a secondary that is 21st in receiving yardage allowed per game to opposing receivers and ranks 23d in touchdowns allowed (eight) to the position.

 

Bengals @ Chiefs

 

Cincinnati Rank @ Kansas City Rank
6   Spread -6  
26.3   Implied Total 32.3  
29.0 6 Points/Gm 35.8 2
26.3 23 Points All./Gm 28.7 27
60.7 27 Plays/Gm 61.8 22
69.5 29 Opp. Plays/Gm 71.3 30
33.8% 27 Rush% 41.2% 14
66.2% 6 Pass% 58.8% 19
36.5% 8 Opp. Rush % 32.9% 2
63.6% 25 Opp. Pass % 67.1% 31

 

  • The Chiefs are +46 in 1st quarter point differential this season, the best in the league. The Bengals rank second behind them at +28 points.
  • Both the Chiefs and Bengals have hit their implied team total five times this season, tied for the league lead.
  • Kansas City has allowed a league-high 2,809 yards from scrimmage to begin the season, the most allowed in league history through six games of a season.
  • Kansas City ranks 31st in completions allowed per game (28.5) while Cincinnati ranks 29th (27.8).
  • Kansas City has allowed a league-high 31 receptions of 20-plus yards.
  • Both the Chiefs and the Bengals wide receivers are tied for the league lead in touchdown receptions with the Seahawks at 11.

 

Trust (spike starting production)

 

  • Patrick Mahomes: You don’t need me to pump up Mahomes and the only quarterback that hasn’t been in the top-13 against the Bengals this season was Ryan Tannehill.
  • Tyreek Hill: We have another week with him looking to break his homefield bugaboos, but the Bengals secondary has struggled drastically against opposing wideouts, allowing 206 yards per game (30th) to the position.
  • Travis Kelce: The Bengals rank 30th in receptions allowed (7.0) and 26th in receiving yardage (68.2) allowed per game to opposing tight ends.
  • Kareem Hunt: His two biggest games of 175 and 185 total yards have come when the Chiefs remember to give him a sprinkling of targets. The Bengals have struggled in all capacities defending opposing backfields, allowing 14.3 rushing points (23rd) and 13.4 receiving points (23rd) to opposing backfields.
  • Joe Mixon: His 21 touches per game rank fourth at the position while his 125.5 yards from scrimmage per game rank eighth. The Chiefs are allowing 193.2 total yards per game to opposing running backs (30th) and are allowing a gaudy 36.0 fantasy points per game to the position (32nd).
  • Andy Dalton: He’s been the QB16 or lower in four of six games, but this is a week for his opportunity to spike. The Chiefs have allowed the QB11 or higher to every passer they’ve faced outside of Case Keenum.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)


  • A.J. Green: He’s had one of the highest floors this season, scoring 15 or more points in five of six games. Believe it or not, but the Chiefs haven’t allowed a WR1 in a game since Week 2.
  • Tyler Boyd: He’s now finished as a top-20 scorer in four of his past five games and is averaging 9.4 targets per game.
  • Sammy Watkins: The Bengals have allowed sets of teammates to post top-15 scoring weeks in two of their past three games and have allowed 15 or more points to eight different wide receivers on the season.

 

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)


  • C.J. Uzomah: He tallied six catches on seven targets a week ago and runs into another favorable matchup against a Chiefs team that is allowing 91.7 yards per game (31st) to opposing tight ends, even though they have allowed just one touchdown to the position.

 

Giants @ Falcons

 

NY Giants Rank @ Atlanta Rank
6   Spread -6  
24.3   Implied Total 30.3  
19.5 27 Points/Gm 27.8 9
27.0 24 Points All./Gm 32.0 31
61.0 23 Plays/Gm 64.2 17
62.7 16 Opp. Plays/Gm 65.7 23
31.4% 31 Rush% 35.6% 25
68.6% 2 Pass% 64.4% 8
44.2% 26 Opp. Rush % 36.6% 9
55.9% 7 Opp. Pass % 63.5% 24

 

  • Atlanta is 4-0 on Monday Night since Dan Quinn took over as the Head Coach in 2015.
  • Both the Falcons and Giants are tied for last in the NFL in allowing opponents to score on 50 percent of their possessions (31-of-62 for each team).
  • The Falcons are first in the league in third down conversion rate (49.4 percent) on offense and last in defensive third down conversion rate (56.2 percent).
  • Opposing teams have targeted running backs 27.7 percent of the time versus Atlanta, the highest rate in the league.
  • Saquon Barkley leads the NFL in targets (23), receptions (18) and fantasy points (58.0) in the 4th quarter this season.
  • Only James Conner has run more pass routes (188) than Saquon Barkley (176) on the season per Pro Football Focus.
  • Barkley leads the league in rushing yardage (324 yards) that have come on runs of 10 or more yards. Those runs make up 73.9 percent of his season rushing total.
  • The Falcons rank 32nd in the league in rate of rushing attempts that fail to gain yardage (25.7 percent). The Giants rank 31st (24.8 percent).
  • The Falcons have allowed a league-high 25 touchdowns this season, the most they’ve allowed through six games of a season since 1985 and the most for any team through six games of a season since the 49ers in 2005.

 

 

Trust (spike starting production)

 

  • Saquon Barkley: He has at least 100-yards from scrimmage in every game and is facing the premier defense to attack with a dual-purpose back. The Falcons have allowed 20-plus points to every lead back they have faced on the season.
  • Odell Beckham: He’s averaging 7.5 receptions per game, which ranks fourth at the position. Atlanta has faced their share of elite receiving options and slowed down only Mike Evans. Antonio Brown (28.1 points), A.J. Green (17.8) and Michael Thomas (22.9) all roughed them up.
  • Matt Ryan: With the Falcons unable to run the ball effectively and their defense bleeding out, Ryan has been a stellar fantasy option. Through six games, he has more fantasy points than he had through six games of his 2016 MVP season. The Giants have allowed just two top-12 scoring quarterbacks, but as they reminded us a week ago, this is still a team that is capable of rolling over.
  • Julio Jones: The streak continues as we’re up to 72 straight catches without a touchdown in the regular season, but he already has three games with over 140-yards receiving on the season and both Mohamed Sanu and Calvin Ridley sustained injuries a week ago.   The shootout and volume levels always leave Jones as a high-end option despite the lack of touchdowns.

 

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • Eli Manning: Every time Manning has looked to be in a favorable spot this season, he’s let down, but here we are again. The Falcons ravaged defense has allowed the QB1, QB5, QB9, QB1 and the QB7 over their past five games, which is hard to ignore no matter who the next quarterback up on the schedule is.
  • Evan Engram: He should be back this week and although he’s coming off a long layoff, the tight end position is an empty cupboard. The middle of the Atlanta defense has been gutted by injuries and they have allowed a top-12 tight end in four of their six games with three touchdowns to the position over their past three games.
  • Sterling Shepard: Even with Engram returning to the lineup, he has to be in consideration against this secondary. The Falcons have allowed multiple top-30 wideouts in three straight games.
  • Tevin Coleman: He’s trending in the wrong direction. After positing 125 total yards in his first game without Devonta Freeman, Coleman has since had 47, 77, and 41 total yards over his next three games with him as the top option. He’s still managed to turn in usable weeks as the RB27, RB28, and RB23, but he has been far from the league-winning caliber option that was assumed once Freeman was inactive.
  • Austin Hooper: He’s now had nine catches in each of the past two games on 22 total targets. The Giants faced their first real tight end on the season a week ago and allowed seven catches and a score to Zach Ertz.

 

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

 

  • Ito Smith: He has some touchdown production masking his output as he also has struggled to generate consistent yardage. Without Freeman in the lineup, Smith has 54, 35, 48, and 21 yards from scrimmage, but he out-touched Coleman 13-11 last week and has out-rushed Coleman 7-2 inside of the red zone over the past three weeks.

Source URL: https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/worksheet/nfl-week-7-worksheet-1