Monday Night Football
Kansas City @ LA Rams
Team Totals: Rams 33.5, Chiefs 30.5
Chiefs-Rams has the highest total (64) in NFL history and should be leaned toward in all fantasy-lineup decisions. This game’s move from Mexico to Los Angeles bodes especially well for Jared Goff, who has a 14:2 TD-to-INT ratio and otherworldly 10.2 yards-per-attempt average at home. Goff has finished as a top-12 fantasy passer in 5-of-5 home games, including three top-six results. Whereas Kansas City permits just 17.5 points per game at home, Andy Reid’s team coughs up 30.4 points per game outside of Arrowhead Stadium. … In addition to 5.11 yards per carry, the Chiefs have permitted the NFL’s most fantasy points to running backs, including league highs in receiving yards (73.3) and all-purpose touchdowns per game (1.5). Just last week, David Johnson dropped season highs in total yards (183) and TDs (2) on the Chiefs. As a home-favorite bellcow facing Kansas City’s swiss-cheese run defense in the highest-totaled game of all time, you couldn’t possibly draw up a better fantasy spot for Todd Gurley.
Goff’s target distribution sans Cooper Kupp (ACL): Robert Woods 14; Brandin Cooks 13; Gurley 12; Josh Reynolds 6; Gerald Everett 4; Tyler Higbee 2. … Woods manned the slot in Kupp’s Weeks 7-8 absence, logging stat lines of 5/78/0 and 5/70/0 against the 49ers and Packers. One of fantasy’s most-consistent pass catchers, Woods has cleared 70 yards in nine straight games. Slot WRs have largely underwhelmed against Kansas City, however, namely Emmanuel Sanders (4/57/0, 5/45/0), Dede Westbrook (3/55/0), Julian Edelman (4/54/1), Jarvis Landry (6/50/0), Larry Fitzgerald (6/50/0), and Tyler Boyd (3/27/0). Based on his bankability and this game’s shootout likelihood, Woods remains a quality WR2 play with WR1 upside. Kupp’s removal from the offense frees up 7.0 targets per game and 24% of Goff’s targets inside the ten-yard line. … Cooks’ Weeks 7-8 results were 4/64/1 and 3/74/0 with a team-high 276 Air Yards. Woods was second in Air Yards (177). As Cooks is the Rams’ premier big-play threat, it is noteworthy that Kansas City has yielded a league-high 43 completions of 20-plus yards. … With Woods moving inside, Reynolds will man the perimeter opposite Cooks after turning in uneven 1/19/0 and 3/42/2 results in Kupp’s Weeks 7-8 missed games. The high-octane nature of Los Angeles’ offense combined with this game’s highest-ever total make Reynolds a tantalizing plug-and-play WR3 with low-cost DFS appeal. … Everett managed route totals of 9 and 14 in Weeks 7-8, although he’s made more of an impact lately with a season-high five targets in Week 9 and a touchdown in Week 10. He’s a boom-bust Week 11 streamer against a Chiefs Defense allowing the league’s third-most yards to tight ends (70.0).
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Patrick Mahomes has been pressured at the NFL’s sixth-highest rate (34.0%) this season, so he’ll at least have experience under duress when facing the Rams, whose 37.2% pressure rate ranks No. 1 in football. Most of Los Angeles’ defensive pressure comes from the interior via DTs Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh and ILB Cory Littleton, concerning because Chiefs C Mitch Morse (concussion) hasn’t played since Week 6, RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (fibula) is on I.R., and LG Cameron Erving is Kansas City’s weak link on the line. This is a glass-half-empty view, of course. Mahomes is quite capable of rolling to the edges, and the Rams have been torched for a 19:3 TD-to-INT ratio over their last eight games. … Kareem Hunt was vultured by Spencer Ware and limited to 18 touches in last week’s smooth-sailing home win over Arizona, which Kansas City won by 12 points but ran only 51 plays, well below their 61-play average. This is an optimal bounce-back spot for Hunt; Los Angeles surrenders a whopping 4.92 yards per carry and 5.8 catches per game to running backs. DC Wade Phillips’ defense got emasculated for 273 rushing yards by Seattle last week. And the Seahawks didn’t even have their starting running back due to a hip injury.
Mahomes’ target distribution when Sammy Watkins plays: Travis Kelce 79; Tyreek Hill 70; Watkins 54; Hunt 29; Chris Conley 21; Ware 16; Demarcus Robinson and Demetrius Harris 11. … The Rams allow the NFL’s eighth-most yards per game to tight ends (62.0), recently giving up big box scores to Ben Watson (3/63/1) in Week 9 and George Kittle (5/98/1) in Week 7. In this likely track meet, Kelce is easily Week 11’s No. 1 tight end play. … Hill burned Patrick Peterson for a 38-yard gain in last week’s win, although Hill’s interior usage often got him matched up on slot CB Budda Baker and a host of Arizona linebackers who never had a prayer. Hill could have scored a third touchdown on a second-half punt return if not for a block-in-the-back penalty. The thought of watching Rams CB Marcus Peters try to keep up with Hill is exciting. PFF has charged Peters with the NFL’s second-most yards (613) and touchdowns (6) allowed among 91 qualified cornerbacks. Phillips’ secondary has surrendered the league’s sixth-most 20-plus-yard completions (37) and a league-high 11 pass plays of 40-plus yards. … Albeit lacking Kelce and Hill’s eruption-game chops, Watkins has been a reliable WR3 with 60 yards and/or a touchdown in six of the last seven games he’s played start to finish. The especially high-scoring projected nature of this matchup gives Watkins his highest ceiling all year. … Conley has finished below 25 yards in 10-of-10 games.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 45, Rams 42