There are several reasons you might not want to roster a certain player in a given week of NFL DFS. To truly be a “fade”, in my opinion the player has to be projected to have decent ownership, e.g. no one is “fading” a WR3 on the Cincinnati Bengals. I’ll always provide the argument for and against a player in this column.
Also, fading a player doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll have zero exposure. If you’re a DFS player who plays on multiple sites with multiple lineups in various contests, fading might mean you use that player in just one or two tournament lineups while other DFS players are using him in a majority of their lineups.
In the case where you want to fade a player due to projected high ownership (see more on this below), perhaps you fade him in tournaments but continue to roster him in cash games. Having an idea of whom you don’t want to roster as well as whom you do makes navigating salary decisions in the lineup construction process a little bit easier.
So, in Week 6 I’m fading:
Dallas Cowboys D/ST
As “Defense facing the Jets” the Cowboys are the most expensive unit on the main slate. However, the Jets are getting Sam Darnold back, which should improve things for everyone, and Le’Veon Bell should be able to take advantage of the league’s seventh-best RB matchup for fantasy. What’s more is that if we look at the actual performance of the Dallas D when facing bad offenses (Miami and Washington have both been on their schedule so far), it’s highly underwhelming. The final number was ok against Miami as the Dolphins only managed six points, but Dallas had a total of zero interceptions, one fumble recovery and four sacks in the two games combined. I think this Jets team is going to give them more trouble than the highest salary is worth.
No team is allowing fewer fantasy points to opposing running backs than the 49ers. With Todd Gurley’s status up in the air, I could see people being eager to chase Malcolm Brown’s Week 1 fantasy stat line, or to finally roster off-season hype monster, Darrell Henderson Jr. In another matchup and with Gurley officially out, I might agree. But even if all the chips fall, Brown and Henderson are going to split the duties against one of the best defenses in the league. No thanks. Ditto Jared Goff, btw.
Editor's Note: Looking for an added edge? Dominate all season long with our DFS Toolkit. Use our Lineup Optimizer to come up with winning lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo! Click here for more!
There are just so many ways to go at QB this weekend, I have zero exposure to Wentz at Minnesota. This is a good pass defense, and DeSean Jackson, who might’ve returned this week, hasn’t practiced at all. Wentz is a guy I love to roster and as usual, he’s priced at a tempting level, but this week, the only Eagle I’ll have in my lineups is Zach Ertz.
This one might cause some strife in my house, but I’m passing on Boyd in Baltimore this week. He’s probably my highest-owned guy in best balls and I’m starting him in season long leagues, but I don’t love it. The Ravens aren’t the defense they used to be, but they’re still very capable, and though Andy Dalton has produced some surprising stat lines this season, he’s hardly Mr. Reliable. When I come to Boyd, though, the real issue is that it’s almost impossible to pass on guys like Tyler Lockett, Larry Fitzgerald, D.J. Chark, Calvin Ridley, Terry McLaurin, and others in a very similar or lower salary range.
In Week 6, players with high expected ownership are Lamar Jackson, Matt Ryan, Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller, Michael Thomas, Mark Ingram, Chris Carson, Travis Kelce, Austin Hooper, Raven D/ST. I think Game Theory is useful in DFS to an extent; obviously we can’t all win with the same players. But time and again it’s proven that big GPP winners can and do win with popular plays in their lineups. One or two highly owned players that live up to their expectations (e.g. score a ton of points) won’t hurt you nearly as much as fading those guys in favor of lower-owned, lesser-producing players will. The trick is to find the low-owned, productive guys to mix in around them.