The weekend is finally here, which means it’s time to get your NFL bets in order. If you’re looking for action beyond just the spread and total, we give our best bets and pick predictions on team and player props and so much more.
POINT OF HENRY
It’s amazing that a team that sits 30th in points allowed at 30.8 points a game has the No. 1 DVOA rush defense. Derrick Henry will find out how tough the Tampa Bay run defense is as the Buccaneers visit the Titans Sunday afternoon. Tampa Bay’s defense has faced Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffery over its last four games allowing a combined 131 yards.
Henry has eclipsed 75 yards rushing in five of his seven games this year but with Tampa Bay’s opponents finding success against its league’s worst pass defense, the Titans running back may see less volume as team’s are averaging a league-high 41.7 passing attempts versus the Bucs.
We are going to back the paradox that is the Bucs’ rush defense and hit the Under on Henry’s total rushing yards of 66.5.
CHARGERS IN CRIME
News today out of the Chargers’ practice is that No. 1 receiver Keenen Allan was held out of Thursday's practice and is in serious danger of missing Sunday’s game against the Chicago Bears.
Philip Rivers will lean heavily on TE Hunter Henry and RB Austin Ekeler in the passing game as the Bears are allowing 64 yards a game to tight ends (seventh highest) and 57.6 yards receiving to opposing running backs (third highest).
With Henry going for 100 and 97 yards in back-to-back games, it makes the Over on his Week 8 receiving total of 61.5 a no-brainer. Additionally, we’re taking the Over on Ekeler’s receiving total of 40.5 yards - a number he has passed in three of his last four games.
Editor's Note: Looking for an added edge? Dominate all season long with our DFS Toolkit. Use our Lineup Optimizer to come up with winning lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo! Click here for more!
Sometimes it’s nice to bet on what the teams are actually playing for — which is the win. Here’s a trio of moneylines that are paying +295
Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (Bills ML -125): The Eagles may be in a bounce-back spot after what can only be described as the worst six minutes of football to open a game on Sunday night. But the Bills’ No.5 DVOA pass defense will give Carson Wentz all he can handle. Wentz has struggled on the road going 9-15 with a passer rating 15 points lower than his home splits, along with twice as many interceptions in the same amount of games played.
It will be a close game as Philadelphia needs the win, but ultimately the Bills get it done at home with Josh Allen and his fourth-quarter passer rating of 139.6 — the best mark in the league.
Los Angeles Chargers at Chicago Bears (Bears ML -185): Last week’s loss and offensive play-calling (54 passes to seven runs) has many people questioning Matt Nagy’s aptitude with the ball. All this attention will have the Bears running a more conservative script versus the Chargers while allowing their defense to make the plays. The Chargers are scoring just 17 points a game over their last three and are a bottom-five team in turnover margin.
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (Colts ML -238): Denver’s offense lacks an identity and now lacks a No.2 receiver after shipping out Emmanuel Sanders this week. Joe Flacco’s offense has also struggled on the road averaging under two touchdowns a game with 189 yards passing. The Colts are averaging twice as many passing yards at home (295) than on the road (148). A lot of Indy’s success lies in the fact that it doesn’t turn the ball over - averaging just one turnover a game this year and 0.3 interceptions a game at home.
The Houston Texans are giving up 330 yards passing a game in their last three as a plethora of injuries to their corners forced Houston’s front office to trade for some coverage help this week. No team has allowed more passing TDs since Week 5, making things very interesting for Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr.
The Black and Silver’s QB is coming off a season-high 293 yards with two scores in Lambeau last week and has a 109.8 passer rating with six TDs and one INT over three road games this year.
Also in Carr’s favor is that his No. 1 receiver Tyrell Williams is expected to play Sunday. Williams has scored in each of the four games he’s played and may have an even bigger workload if top rookie running back Josh Jacobs sits out after Thursday’s DNP. We like Carr’s Over 1.5 passing TDs as well as Williams’ anytime TD score.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
21+. NJ only. Odds may vary. Eligibility restrictions apply. See website for details.