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By the Numbers

NFL Week 11 WR/CB Matchups and TE Analysis

Updated On: November 14, 2019, 1:42 am ET

We're on to Week 11! I'll be breaking down the WR/CB matchups all season long with a focus on figuring out who could be facing shadow coverage as well as the best and worst overall situations. We'll also briefly touch on each team's TE group.

Physical data is courtesy of NFL.com and PlayerProfiler.com, alignment information is from Pro Football Focus while each WR's target share and air yard market share is provided by the fine folks at AirYards.com.


Steelers at Browns

Steelers Offense

Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
Left Diontae Johnson 70 183 4.53 15% 19% Greedy Williams 74 185 4.37
Slot JuJu Smith-Schuster 73 215 4.54 19% 29% T.J. Carrie 72 206 4.48
Right James Washington 71 213 4.54 14% 26% Denzel Ward 71 183 4.32

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Ben Roethlisberger's season-ending elbow injury has easily impacted JuJu Smith-Schuster more than any other skill-position player on the Steelers. The third-year WR has certainly managed to put together a few solid performances with Mason Rudolph under center, but it's been more bad than good in recent weeks:

  • Week 2: 5 receptions-84 yards-0 TD (8 targets), PPR WR34
  • Week 3: 3-81-1 (7), WR21
  • Week 4: 3-15-0 (4), WR66
  • Week 5: 7-75-1 (7), WR15
  • Week 6: 1-7-0 (4), WR89
  • Week 8: 5-103-1 (9), WR8
  • Week 9: 3-16-0 (5), WR67
  • Week 10: 3-44-0 (6), WR47

    It's sadly reasonable to bench Smith-Schuster in most season-long formats at this point. Mason Rudolph has fed JuJu (20 targets) and Jaylen Samuels (20 targets) the most in three games since the Steelers' Week 7 bye, but each of Vance McDonald (18), James Washington (17) and Diontae Johnson (15) have also been plenty involved. The expected return of James Conner (shoulder) renders Smith-Schuster as nothing more than an upside WR4 against T.J. Carrie, who sizes up well with JuJu and has allowed the 11th-fewest yards per cover snap among 49 qualified corners in slot coverage this season.

    Washington has played some of the best football of his (regular season) career over the past two weeks, catching 10-of-11 targets for 159 yards and a touchdown against the Colts and Rams. Johnson had a 1-3-0 dud in Week 9, but that was sandwiched between solid 5-84-1 and 4-64-0 outings.

    Ultimately, it's hard to get too excited about any members of the Steelers' passing game. Rudolph has cleared 200 yards in just three of seven games. His most-prolific performance to date was throwing for 251 yards and a pair of scores against the Dolphins. The offense's trio of talented WRs will pop off at times, but the Browns offer underrated talent in the secondary when they're healthy -- as they are now.

    TE breakdown: McDonald had a let-down performance in Week 10 with a measly 3-11-0 line. Still, it marked the second consecutive week he tied a season high with seven targets, and his 97% snap rate was the most he's been on the field all season. Treat him as a low-end TE1 against a Browns Defense that has allowed big days to Delanie Walker (5-55-2), Mark Andrews (4-31-1), George Kittle (6-70-1), Dawson Knox (4-55-0) and Noah Fant (3-115-1) this season.

    Browns Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Odell Beckham 71 198 4.43 25% 37% Steven Nelson 70 197 4.49
    Slot Jarvis Landry 71 205 4.65 25% 26% Mike Hilton 69 178 4.6
    Right Antonio Callaway 71 200 4.41 11% 13% Joe Haden 71 193 4.62

    Projected shadow matchups: None

    WR/CB breakdown: Well, at least Baker Mayfield tried this time around.

    The hunt for an Odell Beckham bounce-back performance continues after the Browns' No. 1 WR caught 5-of-12 targets for just 57 scoreless yards while in Tre'Davious White's shadow in Week 10.

    Still, OBJ deserves credit for getting free from White on numerous occasions. Beckham notably got free deep on the first play of the game only to be overthrown, and he also drew multiple defensive pass interference flags on the Buffalo secondary in the end zone. His air yards are finally trending in the right direction:

    • Week 1: 116 air yards
    • Week 2: 147
    • Week 3: 46
    • Week 4: 120
    • Week 5: 89
    • Week 6: 124
    • Week 8: 80
    • Week 9: 52
    • Week 10: 168

    Bigger days *should* be on the horizon for one of the league's most-talented WRs.

    The question is whether or not that'll be Thursday night against the Steelers' thriving secondary. Minkah Fitzpatrick has a league-high seven combined interceptions and forced fumbles, while Joe Haden demonstrated he still has the ability to play at a high level against the Rams in Week 10.

    The Steelers are yet to allow a WR to clear 100 yards in a game this season.

    Jarvis Landry has double-digit targets in three consecutive games, peeling off 5-65-0, 6-51-1 and 9-97-1 lines in less-than-ideal spots against the Patriots, Broncos and Bills, respectively. Only Michael Thomas (5 games), Julian Edelman (4) and DeAndre Hopkins (4) have longer active streaks with double-digit targets. The Steelers proved plenty capable of shutting down great slot WRs in Week 10 by goose egging Cooper Kupp, but Landry has earned upside WR3 treatment with his recent play.

    The rest of the group is best approached with extreme caution. Callaway (team suspension) was a healthy scratch last week and expected to return Thursday night, but it wouldn't be surprising if Rashard Higgins continued to see some snaps after scoring the game-winning touchdown vs. the Bills. Kareem Hunt played a career-high 14 snaps in the slot and out wide in his Browns' debut.

    TE breakdownRicky Seals-Jones (knee, questionable) is shaping up as a true game-time decision for Thursday night. Demetrius Harris will continue to work as the featured TE if RSJ is again sidelined, although the team's reliance on two-RB formations could lead to the TE becoming a non-viable fantasy option in this offense. I'd go with Seals-Jones as a showdown slate option if active, but this group has honestly been a bit of a low-upside toss-up ever since David Njoku (wrist, IR) was sidelined following Week 2.


    Falcons at Panthers

    Falcons Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Julio Jones 75 220 4.39 22% 35% James Bradberry 73 211 4.45
    Slot Russell Gage 72 184 4.55 8% 9% Ross Cockrell 72 191 4.56
    Right Calvin Ridley 73 189 4.43 15% 24% Donte Jackson 71 178 4.32

    Projected shadow matchups: Julio Jones vs. James Bradberry (groin), Calvin Ridley vs. Donte Jackson (leg)

    WR/CB breakdown: The Panthers are dealing with multiple key injuries at the moment: Bradberry didn't manage to suit up last week, while Jackson left before the end of the game and failed to return. Former-Bucs backup CB Javien Elliott will step in across from Ross Cockrell if Bradberry and Jackson are ultimately unable to suit up.

    The Panthers have been one of the league's most-pronounced run-funnel defenses this season, performing much better against the pass (No. 3 in DVOA) than the run (No. 32). Still, they've allowed the fifth and third-most passes per game to opposing No. 1 and No. 2 WRs, respectively (Football Outsiders).

    Jones and Ridley are plenty capable of dominating this matchup, particularly if Bradberry and Jackson are ultimately sidelined.

    Julio has posted 6-118-0, 5-80-0, 5-64-0 and 4-28-1 lines in four shadow dates with Bradberry since 2017. The Panthers' plus-sized No. 1 CB has consistently made life difficult for some of the league's best WRs over the years, but this is a different beast we're talking about with Jones. The Falcons' No. 1 WR is currently in the midst of a six-game scoreless streak and due for an eruption. Jones has surprisingly averaged more receiving yards per game on the road compared to at home during his career.

    And then there's Ridley, who has a disappointing 12 combined targets in two games since Mohamed Sanu was traded to the Patriots. All Ridley has done with anything resembling a large role is completely ball out. Somehow, the 24-year-old WR has just five career games with at least eight targets:

    • 2018, Week 3: 7 receptions-146 yards-3 TD (8 targets)
    • 2018, Week 9: 6-71-1 (9)
    • 2018, Week 12: 8-93-1 (13)
    • 2019, Week 2: 8-105-1 (10)
    • 2019, Week 5: 5-88-1 (9)

    Continue to lock in Jones as an every-week WR1, while I expect Ridley to provide upside WR2 value as Matt Ryan's clear-cut No. 2 pass catcher moving forward.

    TE breakdown: Austin Hooper (knee) is reportedly expected to miss "about a month" while recovering from a sprained MCL. He'll be replaced by a combination of Luke Stocker and Jaeden Graham, neither of whom are expected to emerge as viable fantasy options in the short term.

    Panthers Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left D.J. Moore 72 210 4.42 24% 29% Isaiah Oliver 72 201 4.5
    Slot Jarius Wright 70 180 4.42 10% 10% Kendall Sheffield 71 193 4.4
    Right Curtis Samuel 71 196 4.31 21% 37% Blidi Wreh-Wilson 73 195 4.53

    Projected shadow matchups: None

    WR/CB breakdown: The Panthers have made a point to keep D.J. Moore heavily involved on a weekly basis since he saw just seven combined targets in Kyle Allen's first two starts:

    • Week 5: 6 receptions-91 yards-0 TD (8 targets)
    • Week 6: 7-73-0 (10)
    • Week 8: 5-38-0 (9)
    • Week 9: 7-101-0 (10)
    • Week 10: 9-120-0 (11)

    Additional touchdowns will come at some point. Tyler Boyd (91 targets) and Odell Beckham Jr. (79) join Moore (79) atop the list of positive regression candidates as the most-targeted players in the league with one or fewer receiving TDs this season.

    Meanwhile, Samuel continues to boast one of the more fantasy-friendly roles in the league. Overall, only Mike Evans (1,391), Keenan Allen (1,124), Kenny Golladay (1,113) and Julio Jones (1,073) have more air yards (1,044) than Samuel this season. He ranks 10th in fantasy-friendly target share (which accounts for red zone and deep ball opportunity) among all players with at last 50 targets this season.

    Both WRs are set up brilliantly against the league's seventh-worst defense in PPR per game allowed to the WR position. The return of Desmond Trufant (toe) would help, but Moore and Samuel alike are plenty capable of eating against a secondary that doesn't have a single CB graded among PFF's top-70 corners this season.

    TE breakdown: Olsen caught 8-of-10 targets for 98 scoreless yards last week while posting a McCaffrey-esque 100% snap rate. His targets have been inconsistent this season, but your fantasy team could do worse than a full-time TE that works as the offense's No. 3 to No. 4 (at worst) pass-game option during any given week. Fire up the Panthers' 34-year-old stalwart as a low-end TE1 against the league's second-worst defense in DVOA against the pass.


    Cowboys at Lions

    Cowboys Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Michael Gallup 73 205 4.51 22% 26% Rashaan Melvin 74 192 4.47
    Slot Randall Cobb 70 192 4.46 16% 17% Justin Coleman 71 185 4.53
    Right Amari Cooper 73 211 4.42 22% 28% Darius Slay 72 192 4.36

    Projected shadow matchups: Michael Gallup vs. Rashaan Melvin, Randall Cobb vs. Justin Coleman, Amari Cooper vs. Darius Slay

    WR/CB breakdown: The Lions are always a bit difficult when it comes to projecting their shadow matchups, but lately they've made a habit of ...

    • Assigning their best CB (Slay) against their opponent's clear-cut No. 1 WR
    • Putting their full-time nickelback (Coleman) on the opposing slot WR
    • Sticking their plus-sized CB (Melvin) on the remaining outside WR

    Cooper is capable of winning against whoever the Lions decide to line him up against. Yes, his home/away splits with the Cowboys are troubling. Also yes, there doesn't seem to be a ball that Cooper isn't capable of catching these days.

    Meanwhile, since Week 6 ...

    • Gallup: 27 targets, 13 receptions, 191 yards, 2 TDs
    • Cobb: 19 targets, 14 receptions, 170 yards, 1 TD

    Gallup has the higher ceiling; I used an arbitrary cutoff that doesn't include the second-year WR's 7-158-0 and 7-113-1 performances in Weeks 1 and 5, respectively. Still, Cobb has earned upside WR4 consideration as a full-time WR in the league's most-efficient passing offense in net yards per attempt.

    The Lions rank among the league's bottom-12 defenses in yards allowed per game to both opposing No. 1 and No. 2 WRs (Football Outsiders). Fire up both Cooper (obviously) and Gallup with confidence this week, while Cobb is a more-than-worthy bye week filler. 

    TE breakdown: Jason Witten's eight-game streak with at least three receptions ended against the Vikings, as the best Monday Night Football broadcaster that ESPN has had in two years was held to a pedestrian 2-17-0 line vs. Harrison Smith and company. It'd be surprising if Witten's seven-game scoreless streak continues much longer. A matchup against the Lions' 30th-ranked defense in DVOA against TEs doesn't seem like a bad bounce-back spot.

    Lions Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Kenny Golladay 76 218 4.5 21% 33% Byron Jones 73 199 4.48
    Slot Danny Amendola 70 186 4.68 17% 15% Jourdan Lewis 70 195 4.54
    Right Marvin Jones 74 200 4.46 19% 25% Chidobe Awuzie 72 202 4.43

    Projected shadow matchups: None

    WR/CB breakdown: The upside of the entire Lions' passing game hinges on whether or not Matthew Stafford (hip, back) manages to suit up. He's considered week to week and failed to practice Wednesday.

    Jeff Driskel will draw the start again if Stafford is sidelined. His debut with the Lions resulted in a 20-13 loss to the Bears, but the 26-year-old career backup managed to enable both Kenny Golladay (3-57-1) and Marvin Jones (5-77-0) to fine-enough performances.

    All things considered: Driskel doesn't suck!

    Overall, Driskel displayed the following target distribution in Week 10:

    Five other Lions had one target, including Driskel himself!

    Golladay has been the most fantasy-friendly WR in football this season on a per-target basis. We can better calculate the nature of WR targets by assigning different weights to various types of targets. Specifically, players have averaged 2.46 PPR per red zone target (inside the 20-yard line), 2.17 per deep ball target (20-plus yards downfield) and 1.45 on every other type of target.

    Golladay ranks first among 62 players with at least 50 targets in this "weighted targets" metric, while Jones is ninth. Amendola ranks 32nd.

    The Lions consistently feed their two studs outside WRs the ball in the most fantasy-friendly manner possible. Continue to target both Golladay and Jones even with Driskel under center, although they're probably better approached as upside WR3s against the league's second-best defense in fewest PPR allowed to opposing WRs.

    TE breakdown: Hockenson has more games with over 40 yards in the last two weeks (2) than he did in Weeks 1-8 combined (1). The No. 8 overall pick of the 2019 draft shows off his tantalizing upside once or twice a game, but there remains a low weekly floor here. Still, the Cowboys have funneled fantasy points to the TE position at a bottom-three rate through 10 weeks -- and bye weeks can be a real pain in the ass sometimes. Treat Hockenson as an upside TE2 that's plenty worthy of flyer consideration in this spot.


    Jaguars at Colts

    Jaguars Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Chris Conley 74 213 4.35 15% 28% Marvell Tell 74 198 4.45
    Slot Dede Westbrook 72 178 4.44 21% 17% Kenny Moore 69 185 4.52
    Right D.J. Chark 75 199 4.34 22% 35% Rock Ya-Sin 72 192 4.51

    Projected shadow matchups: None

    WR/CB breakdown: Dede Westbrook (shoulder) is tentatively expected to return following the Jaguars' Week 10 bye. If active, he'll be joined by Week 1 starter and $88 million man Nick Foles.

    We've obviously seen that Foles is capable of stringing together high-end performances in both the playoffs as well as generally whenever his head coach hasn't been Jeff Fisher. Still, we shouldn't necessarily dismiss the idea that this passing game won't improve all that much. Gardner Minshew had his down moments, but only Dak Prescott, Robert Griffin, Marc Bulger, Deshaun Watson, Ben Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson have averaged more adjusted yards per attempt among 85 rookie QBs to throw at least 100 passes since 2000.

    The Jaguars are an underrated offense when it comes to their ability to elevate the QB thanks to their talented WRs and solid run game. Both D.J. Chark (7.8 targets per game) and Westbrook (6.9) are set up well this week against a Colts Defense that is one of just seven units to allow more than nine yards per target to opposing WRs this season.

    TE breakdown: Each of Seth DeValve (52% snaps, 5 targets in Week 9), Josh Oliver (45%, 2) and Ben Koyack (23%, 1) rotated reps in the Jaguars' last game. The team reportedly wants to get their third-round pick more involved in the passing game, but Oliver has just two targets in three games of action. None of these TEs are realistic fantasy options as long as they remain in a three-way committee despite this week's strong matchup.

    Colts Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Marcus Johnson 73 204 4.44 18% 13% Tre Herndon 71 186 4.52
    Slot Chester Rogers 72 185 4.56 9% 11% D.J. Hayden 71 191 4.45
    Right Zach Pascal 74 219 4.55 11% 17% A.J. Bouye 72 186 4.6

    Projected shadow matchups: Zach Pascal vs. A.J. Bouye

    WR/CB breakdown: Bouye was always an over-qualified No. 2 CB while Jalen Ramsey was still in town. He probably doesn't need to be considered a world-beating No. 1 CB based his first two shadow dates against Michael Thomas (8-89-0) and DeAndre Hopkins (8-48-1), but Zach Pascal also isn't in the same stratosphere as those elite WRs.

    The bigger issue for Pascal and the entire Colts' passing game is the health of Jacoby Brissett (knee). Coach Frank Reich said that Brissett will start if he can get in a full practice on Wednesday, which the Colts' signal caller managed to accomplish. Here's to hoping Reich sticks to his word, as Brian Hoyer was absolutely brutal against the Dolphins. Overall, the 34-year-old journeyman completed just 18-of-39 passes (46% completion rate) for 204 yards (5.2 YPA) with one touchdown and a trio of interceptions.

    This is somewhat of a two-way street. One of the interceptions should've been a touchdown to Eric Ebron had the TE not had the ball ripped out of his hands, and the Colts WRs are also all sorts of banged up at the moment. T.Y. Hilton (calf) hasn't been ruled out for Week 11, but seems more like a week or two away, electric rookie Parris Campbell (hand) is reportedly expected to return in December, and Devin Funchess (collarbone, IR) will likely be limited if active on Sunday.

    Pascal (99% snap rate) and Marcus Johnson (80%) worked well ahead of both Chester Rogers (50%) and Ashton Dulin (4%) after the team waived Deon Cain last week, instead relying on more two-TE sets with Ebron (61%) and Jack Doyle (60%). Pascal is the only WR worthy of fantasy consideration, but I'd look elsewhere if possible.

    TE breakdown: Ebron's mid-week complaints to the media in Week 10 earned him season-high marks in both targets (12) as well as snaps while lined up as a true WR (30). The 5-56-0 line wasn't spectacular, but we can treat Ebron as a low-end TE1 as long as Hilton and Campbell remain sidelined. The Jaguars haven't exactly been great against the likes of Travis Kelce (3-88-0), Ryan Griffin (4-66-2), Delanie Walker (7-64-0), Jared Cook (3-37-1) and Noah Fant (2-31-1) through 10 weeks. Doyle remains more of a touchdown dependent TE2.

    Bills at Dolphins

    Bills Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left John Brown 70 179 4.34 24% 38% Nik Needham 71 194 4.67
    Slot Cole Beasley 68 177 4.54 20% 18% Eric Rowe 73 205 4.45
    Right Isaiah McKenzie 67 173 4.41 8% 4% Ryan Lewis 72 195 4.42

    Projected shadow matchups: None

    WR/CB breakdown: John Brown vs. Nik Needham

    Brown hasn't supplied the ceiling that his fantasy owners had hoped for to this point. Still, he joins Michael Thomas as the league's only two WRs with at least 50 receiving yards in every game this season. Surprisingly, Smokey Brown is the overall PPR WR18 and WR25 in PPR per game through 10 weeks.

    The Dolphins have utilized their undrafted rookie in shadow coverage in consecutive weeks against Demaryius Thomas (2-19-0) and Zach Pascal (2-26-0).  Credit to Needham for ranking 19th in lowest passer rating allowed in coverage among 128 qualified CBs this season, but this isn't a matchup that Smokey's fantasy owners should fear. The all-time UTEP leader in pass deflections has faced an alarmingly easy QB schedule to this point with matchups against Case Keenum, Josh Allen, Mason Rudolph, Sam Darnold and Brian Hoyer.

    Brown caught 5-of-6 targets for 83 yards and a score against the Dolphins in Week 7. I don't see him having too much of a problem either replicating that performance in Week 11, or doubling the totals if Allen decides to feed his No. 1 WR in this plus matchup.

    Beasley's three-game touchdown streak ended against the Browns, but he still managed to produce with a 4-74-0 line on six targets. The ceiling here is low regardless of the opponent. Still, Beasley (67% snaps in Week 10) is the only other realistic pass catcher in this offense with the likes of Isaiah McKenzie (54%), Robert Foster (23%), Andre Roberts (19%), Dawson Knox (58%) and Tyler Kroft (43%) eating into each other targets and snaps alike.

    TE breakdown: Knox responded with a 4-55-0 performance on a season-high six targets last week after I called him a dark-horse fantasy option following his season-high 76% snap rate in Week 9. Still, Kroft's renewed involvement in Week 10 makes a repeat performance for the Bills' third-round rookie unlikely. Knox should be treated as a touchdown-dependent TE2 as long as simply getting on the field remains a chore. 

    Dolphins Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Allen Hurns 73 198 4.55 6% 8% Levi Wallace 72 179 4.63
    Slot Albert Wilson 69 202 4.43 9% 3% Taron Johnson 71 192 4.5
    Right DeVante Parker 75 209 4.45 20% 32% Tre'Davious White 71 192 4.47

    Projected shadow matchups: None

    WR/CB breakdown: The Dolphins' new-look WR group without Preston Williams featured both DeVante Parker (95% snaps in Week 10) and Allen Hurns (89%) well ahead of Albert Wilson (53%) and Jakeem Grant (23%).

    Hurns seems to do the little things well and has earned his way into the starting rotation with three different teams throughout his six-year career. Still, neither Ryan Fitzpatrick nor Josh Rosen have targeted him more than four times in a game this season. He's the No. 3 pass-game option (at best) in an offense that has scored 21 or fewer points in all but one game this season.

    Parker is the intriguing fantasy WR to target. Not so much this week against the Bills' fearsome secondary, but he's set up brilliantly in Weeks 13, 14 and 15 against the Eagles (25th in fewest PPR per game allowed to WRs), Jets (31st) and Giants (30th).

    WR Week 11

    TE breakdown: Mike Gesicki has been the main component holding back Wilson, as the Dolphins have lined their second-year TE up as a slot WR on 69% of his snaps this season. Only Parker (10) had more targets in the team's first game without Williams than Gesicki (6). This isn't the spot to expect much from the Dolphins' athletically-gifted TE: Nobody has allowed fewer PPR per game to the TE position than the Bills. Still, Gesicki will carry weekly low-end TE1 appeal as the offense's No. 2 pass-game option.


    Texans at Ravens

    Texans Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left DeAndre Hopkins 73 214 4.57 30% 34% Jimmy Smith 74 211 4.46
    Slot DeAndre Carter 68 185 4.49 2% 2% Marlon Humphrey 72 197 4.41
    Right Kenny Stills 72 194 4.38 12% 15% Marcus Peters 72 197 4.53

    Projected shadow matchups: None

    WR/CB breakdown: The Texans have confusingly turned DeAndre Hopkins into an underneath threat as opposed to the world-beating alpha that we grew used to seeing over the years:

    • 2013: 14.23 yard average target depth (No. 25 among all WRs to play at least 25% of their offense's snaps)
    • 2014: 13.38 (No. 29)
    • 2015: 14.76 (No. 22)
    • 2016: 12.25 (No. 50)
    • 2017: 13.98 (No. 33)
    • 2018: 12.21 (No. 51)
    • 2019: 9.94 (No. 89)

    There's no reason for fantasy owners to panic too much, as only Michael Thomas (103 targets) and Keenan Allen (95) have more pass-game opportunities than Hopkins (92) this season. The floor is fine: Nuk has a league-high 13 consecutive games with at least five receptions. Still, the ceiling here is lower than in past years.

    The latter point is particularly true in a tough matchup like this one. The Ravens haven't moved their CBs around since acquiring Marcus Peters and getting Jimmy Smith back from injury, seemingly because they're confident in their corners in any matchup that the opposing offense chooses. It's worked so far, as the Ravens are one of just seven defenses to allow 5.5 or fewer yards per pass attempt over the past two weeks.

    It remains to be seen if Will Fuller (hamstring) will manage to return this week. His presence would likely lead to Kenny Stills replacing DeAndre Carter as the offense's primary slot WR. Still, the Texans utilized plenty of two-TE sets the last time we saw them in Week 9, as each of Darren Fells (84% snaps) and Jordan Akins (69%) were on the field way more often than Carter (43%).

    Stills and Fuller are each upside WR4s with serious boom potential in this Deshaun Watson-led offense. Still, this tough spot, combined with the uncertainty surrounding their snaps if each are healthy, makes this more of a wait-and-see situation for the time being.

    TE breakdown: Fells has found the end zone in consecutive weeks and is the PPR TE10 this season. Continue to treat Fells as a low-end TE1 regardless of the matchup. Watson has targeted Fells (4) just as often as Hopkins (4) inside the 10-yard line this season. Akins will remain annoyingly involved, but he's more of a threat to the offense's complementary WRs than Fells at this point.

    Ravens Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Miles Boykin 76 220 4.42 6% 10% Gareon Conley 72 195 4.44
    Slot Willie Snead 71 195 4.62 10% 11% Bradley Roby 71 194 4.39
    Right Marquise Brown 69 166   22% 30% Johnathan Joseph 71 193 4.32

    Projected shadow matchups: None

    WR/CB breakdown: The Ravens' snaps at WR were all over the place during their blowout win over the Bengals. Overall, none of Willie Snead (47% snaps), Miles Boykin (45%), Marquise Brown (40%) nor Seth Roberts (38%) managed to play even half of the offense's snaps. This is life in an offense that features three TEs in Nick Boyle (77%), Hayden Hurst (57%) and Mark Andrews (51%) that heavily assist in the run and pass game alike.

    The artist known as Hollywood is the only Ravens WR worthy of fantasy consideration for the time being. He's capable of busting off some big plays against Johnathan Joseph, who clocked his impressive 40-yard dash more than a decade ago.

    Lamar Jackson's target distribution in seven games with Brown has been as follows:

    • Andrews (50 targets)
    • Brown (47)
    • Boyle (23)
    • Snead (21)
    • Hurst (19) 

    Fire up Brown as an upside WR3 that is too fast and talented to go much longer without a blowup performance.

    TE breakdown: Andrews got back on track in Week 10 with a 6-53-2 performance. He's had at least seven targets in all but one game this season and is locked in as Jackson's favorite pass-game option. Continue to treat the talented second-year TE as an upside TE1, particularly in this spot against a Texans Defense that has been significantly better against the run (No. 6 in DVOA) than the pass (No. 20) through 10 weeks.

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    Broncos at Vikings

    Broncos Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Courtland Sutton 75 218 4.54 24% 40% Xavier Rhodes 73 210 4.43
    Slot DaeSean Hamilton 73 203 4.57 11% 10% Mike Hughes 70 189 4.53
    Right Diontae Spencer 68 173 4.39 2% 3% Trae Waynes 72 186 4.31

    Projected shadow matchups: None

    WR/CB breakdown: Brandon Allen utilized the following target distribution in his first game under center back in Week 9:

    DaeSean Hamilton has a combined four yards since Week 7 and is off the fantasy radar. Spencer's minimal role figures to shrink even further once expected No. 3 WR Tim Patrick (hand, IR) is added to the active roster.

    Sutton is the only realistic fantasy option in this pass offense. He's been nothing short of fantastic since entering the league:

    Most yards per target among 91 WRs with at least 150 targets in their first two seasons since 2000:

    The Vikings' mediocre group of CBs haven't been an obstacle for any passing game this season. Overall, each of Mackensie Alexander (No. 42), Trae Waynes (No. 96), Mike Hughes (No. 97) and Xavier Rhodes (No. 109) rank outside of PFF's top-40 CBs this season among 128 qualified corners.

    Continue to fire up Sutton as a low-end WR2/upside WR3 regardless of who is under center.

    TE breakdown: Fant finally appears to be breaking out to an extent. He's played at least 80% of the offense's snaps in consecutive weeks, catching 8-of-13 targets for 141 yards and a score since Emmanuel Sanders was traded to the 49ers. Both of Fant's touchdowns this season have been somewhat fluky in that the TE had to create after the catch in order to find the end zone, but this is one of the perks of targeting the Broncos' ridiculously-athletic rookie. Fire up Fant as an upside TE2 against the Vikings in Week 11 as long as Jeff Heuerman (knee) remains sidelined.

    Vikings Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Stefon Diggs 72 195 4.46 21% 40% Chris Harris Jr. 69 194 4.48
    Slot Bisi Johnson 72 204 4.51 11% 14% Duke Dawson 71 197 4.46
    Right Laquon Treadwell 74 221 4.68 6% 12% Davontae Harris 71 205 4.43

    Projected shadow matchups: Stefon Diggs vs. Chris Harris Jr.

    WR/CB breakdown: Adam Thielen (hamstring) remains without a clear timetable for return. Laquon Treadwell (17% snaps in Week 10) has worked well behind No. 2 TE Irv Smith (74%) as the offense's No. 4 pass-game option with Thielen sidelined.

    Bisi Johnson has more than four targets in just one of 10 games this season and has yet to surpass 50 yards. It's a solid matchup, but volume is too big of a concern to trust the Vikings' seventh-round rookie.

    That leaves us with one of the week's most-anticipated shadow matchups. Harris has been nothing short of spectacular when asked to track the opposition's No. 1 WR to this point:

    Still, Diggs is capable of winning virtually any matchup thanks to his pristine route-running ability. He's failed to find the end zone or surpass 50 yards in consecutive games for just the second time since Kirk Cousins joined the Vikings. Diggs broke out of his 2018 slump with 10-119-1, 13-126-1 and 8-77-1 lines in three consecutive performances. I wouldn't expect too big of a blowup spot in this tough matchup, but Diggs is too good to go much longer without a big day.

    TE breakdown: The Vikings have fed their rookie TE at least six targets in three of their last four games, while Kyle Rudolph has worked his way back into fantasy consideration with four touchdowns since Week 7. There remains a low floor here: Rudolph has fewer than 40 yards in all but one game this season. Still, Cousins has fed his No. 1 TE a team-high 10 targets inside the 20-yard line this season. Treat Rudolph as a touchdown-dependent TE2 that is playing shockingly well at the moment.



    Jets at Redskins

    Jets Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Robby Anderson 75 190 4.41 18% 34% Quinton Dunbar 74 201 4.49
    Slot Jamison Crowder 68 185 4.56 23% 25% Fabian Moreau 72 206 4.35
    Right Demaryius Thomas 75 224 4.41 19% 23% Josh Norman 72 197 4.66

    Projected shadow matchups: None

    WR/CB breakdown: Sam Darnold has fed six different players double-digit targets in five games since returning from mono:

    Anderson has the speed to toast Norman when the matchup occurs, but you're more or less betting on the Jets' overqualified field-stretching WR to take one of his six targets to the house.

    It's tough to get behind any of the offense's pass catchers. The passing game has benefited mightily from back-to-back cake matchups against the Dolphins and Giants. The Redskins' secondary shouldn't ever be confused with a truly elite unit, but they're still not a truly terrible pass defense like the Jets' previous opponents.

    Overall, the Redskins have allowed the 11th-fewest yards to opposing WRs this season. Crowder can win with enough volume, although expectations should be held in check for everyone involved in the week's lowest total game.

    TE breakdown: Chris Herndon (ribs, IR) is done for the season. This means Ryan Griffin will continue to work as the offense's undisputed No. 1 TE. Overall, Griffin has functioned as the PPR TE7 since Darnold returned in Week 6. The production has been fueled by three touchdowns; Griffin is 24th in targets among all TEs during the same timeline. Still, Griffin has earned weekly high-end TE2 consideration as an every-down player that leads the Jets with three targets inside the 10-yard line this season.

    Redskins Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Terry McLaurin 72 208 4.35 23% 46% Blessuan Austin 73 198 4.61
    Slot Trey Quinn 71 203 4.55 16% 17% Brian Poole 70 209 4.55
    Right Paul Richardson 72 175 4.4 15% 22% Arthur Maulet 70 189 4.62

    Projected shadow matchups: None

    WR/CB breakdown: Last week the Redskins used a 3-WR rotation between Trey Quinn (60% snaps), Kelvin Harmon (50%) and Paul Richardson (46%). None are realistic fantasy options with so much uncertainty surrounding both their workload and general ability to produce.

    That leaves Terry McLaurin, who is one of my favorite plays of Week 11 for the following reasons:

    1. The Jets' outside CBs at the moment are sixth-round rookie Blessuan Austin and undrafted journeyman Arthur Maulet. Both Trumaine Johnson (ankle, IR) and Darryl Roberts (calf, missed Week 10) are banged up, while Nate Hairston was benched after allowing a 5-87-1 line against the Giants on just 16 snaps in coverage last week.
    2. The Redskins have consistently prioritized McLaurin as their undisputed No. 1 pass-game option and have fed him the sixth-most fantasy-friendly target share when we assign superior weights to red zone and deep ball opportunity.
    3. No, Dwayne Haskins hasn't looked good in his two extended road appearances against the Vikings and Bills over the last two weeks. Still, I'm not willing to write off the first-round QB's ability to enable *one* fantasy-relevant WR in a significantly easier matchup at home against a Jets Defense that has been much better against the run (No. 2 in DVOA) than the pass (No. 24) this season.

    Fire up McLaurin as an upside WR3 in season-long formats, while his status as the WR31 on FanDuel is simply a slap in the face.

    TE breakdown: Jeremy Sprinkle has played a full-time role with Vernon Davis (concussion) sidelined since Week 4, yet doesn't have more than two receptions in a game this season. The likelihood that both Sprinkle and Davis split snaps if the latter TE is active in Week 11 makes this a situation to avoid.


    Saints at Buccaneers

    Saints Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Michael Thomas 75 212 4.57 31% 38% Jamel Dean 73 206 4.3
    Slot Tre'Quan Smith 74 203 4.49 6% 8% M.J. Stewart 71 200 4.54
    Right Ted Ginn 71 180 4.43 12% 29% Sean Bunting 70 195 4.42

    Projected shadow matchups: None

    WR/CB breakdown: Michael Thomas has at least five receptions and 50 yards in every game this season. His floor is the pretty much the roof regardless of whoever happens to be under center.

    Up next is a Tampa Bay defense that Thomas has absolutely shredded since entering the league in 2016:

    • 2016, Week 16: 6 receptions-98 yards-0 TD (8 targets)
    • 2017, Week 9: 8-65-0 (11)
    • 2017, Week 17: 6-94-0 (8)
    • 2018, Week 1: 16-180-1 (17)
    • 2018, Week 14: 11-98-0 (13)
    • 2019, Week 5: 11-182-2 (13) 

    Continue to treat Thomas as an every-week high-end WR1 regardless of the matchup. He should be in any conversation surrounding the league's very best WRs.

    Tre'Quan Smith (83% snaps in Week 10) worked as the offense's full-time slot WR in his first game since Week 5. Still, both Smith (2 targets) and Ted Ginn (3) worked well behind each of Thomas (14), Alvin Kamara (10) and Jared Cook (10) in Drew Brees' pecking order. It'd be surprising if Smith and Ginn continue to play near every-down roles and don't pop off eventually, but they're going to bust more than boom as the No. 4 and No. 5 pass-game options in this offense.

    Of course, those aforementioned boom weeks could very well come this week vs. a Buccaneers Defense that has been significantly better against the run (No. 1 in DVOA) than the pass (No. 27). Starting slot CB Vernon Hargreaves was released this week after being benched for "lack of hustle" according to coach Bruce Arians.

    TE breakdown: Cook has posted 2-37-0 and 6-74-0 lines in two games with Brees under center this season. The 32-year-old TE can be locked in as a TE1 as long as he continues to work as the passing game's undisputed No. 3 receiver. This is particularly true against the league's second-worst defense in PPR per game allowed to opposing TEs.

    Buccaneers Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Mike Evans 77 231 4.53 25% 38% P.J. Williams 72 194 4.57
    Slot Chris Godwin 73 209 4.42 24% 24% Chauncey Gardner-Johnson 71 210 4.48
    Right Breshad Perriman 74 212 4.3 10% 12% Eli Apple 73 199 4.4

    Projected shadow matchups: None

    WR/CB breakdown: Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) is tentatively expected to miss multiple weeks.

    This is great news for Mike Evans, as Lattimore has (generally) won their one-on-one matchups since entering the league in 2017:

    • 2017, Week 9: 1 reception-13 yards-0 TD (6 targets)
    • 2017, Week 17: 5-55-0 (13)
    • 2018, Week 1: 7-147-1 (7)
    • 2018, Week 14: 4-86-0 (6)
    • 2019, Week 5: 0-0-0 (3)

    Evans' 1,391 air yards this season are a ridiculous 267 more than the next-closest WR. Continue to fire up the PPR WR2 as a high-end WR1 regardless of the matchup.

    Chris Godwin hasn't been the same consistent world-beater that we saw in the first six weeks of the season. Overall, he's posted 4-43-0, 7-61-0 and 6-74-0 lines in three games since the Buccaneers' Week 7 bye. These performances didn't come in particularly troublesome spots against the Titans, Seahawks and Cardinals, respectively, and the eye test indicates Godwin might not be operating quite at 100% after dealing with a nagging hip injury earlier in the season.

    Regardless: Godwin has the eighth-most targets in the league and remains plenty capable of dominating any matchup from the friendly confines of the slot. This is particularly true against Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, who has generally played safety when the Saints haven't been dealing with injuries. Continue to fire up Godwin as a weekly WR1.

    TE breakdown: It took 10 weeks, but O.J. Howard finally posted a stellar 4-47-1 line against the Cardinals' league-worst defense vs. opposing TEs. He did so on a season-high 99% snap rate and received more than five targets for the first time all season. And why shouldn't the Buccaneers get Howard more involved? The talented TE has averaged 10.9 yards per target since entering the league in 2017, making him Jameis Winston's most-efficient pass catcher ahead of Godwin (9.4). Cam Brate appears to be playing through the pain and has been on the field for a combined 26 snaps over the past two weeks. Tentatively treat Howard as a low-end TE1 as the *seemingly* undisputed No. 3 pass-game target in this offense at the moment.

    Cardinals at 49ers

    Cardinals Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left KeeSean Johnson 73 201 4.6 12% 14% Emmanuel Moseley 71 184 4.47
    Slot Larry Fitzgerald 75 225 4.48 20% 21% K'Waun Williams 69 189 4.58
    Right Christian Kirk 71 201 4.47 23% 29% Richard Sherman 75 195 4.6

    Projected shadow matchups: None

    WR/CB breakdown: Christian Kirk week happened and it was a great time.

    Kirk has at least five targets in every game this season and four outings with double-digit pass-game opportunities. This week's matchup isn't ideal, but he's receiving enough volume to warrant weekly WR2 treatment in the Cardinals' improving pass offense.

    Larry Fitzgerald came alive a bit last week, catching all eight of his targets for 71 scoreless yards. Still, this marked the first time since Week 2 that old-man Fitz managed to clear 70 yards. There's a low ceiling here for the Cardinals' No. 2 pass-game option in this tough spot.

    The Cardinals' 4-WR offense has been mostly abandoned in recent weeks. Week 10 saw TEs Charles Clay (46% snaps) and Maxx Williams (44%) play just as often as KeeSean Johnson (53%), Andy Isabella (37%) and Pharoh Cooper (29%). None are realistic fantasy options against the league's top-ranked defense in pass DVOA.

    Isabella is the one complementary WR in this offense worth keeping an eye on. He leads all rookies with 3.41 yards per route run while catching all six of his targets for 174 yards and a touchdown over the past four weeks. Don't expect a breakout game against the 49ers, but perhaps the Cardinals will give their 2019 second-round pick more of a full-time role following the team's Week 12 bye.

    TE breakdown: Williams should've had a touchdown last week but lost the ball in the sun. Clay has posted 1-6-0 and 1-5-0 lines following his 3-88-0 performance in Week 8. Neither are on the fantasy radar as long as they continue to split targets and snaps alike.

    49ers Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Deebo Samuel 71 214 4.48 17% 19% Byron Murphy 71 190 4.55
    Slot Kendrick Bourne 73 203 4.68 9% 12% Kevin Peterson 70 181 4.66
    Right Emmanuel Sanders 71 180 4.41 19% 27% Patrick Peterson 72 219 4.34

    Projected shadow matchups: Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) vs. Patrick Peterson (calf)

    WR/CB breakdown: It's unclear whether Sanders or Peterson will be healthy enough to suit up this week.

    If healthy, Sanders can be fired up as an upside WR2 considering he's already proven plenty capable of defeating Peterson's shadow coverage with relative ease.

    Look for Deebo Samuel (83% snaps in Week 10) and Kendrick Bourne (70%) to lead the way if Sanders is sidelined. Still, Dante Pettis (38%) and Marquise Goodwin (14%) figure to be involved to some extent as well. The return of George Kittle (knee) would lower the floor of every WR involved in the 49ers' run-first offense.

    Samuel is the preferred dart throw of the group after catching 8-of-11 targets for 112 scoreless yards in Week 10. The 49ers have fed their second-round pick designed rush attempts and screens all season in an attempt to get the rookie involved. I wouldn't expect much of a guaranteed target floor if Kittle is healthy, but Samuel is #good enough to thrive in this matchup if the 49ers are without each of their top-two receivers.

    TE breakdown: Kittle has ripped off 5-83-0, 5-57-0 and most-recently 6-79-1 performances in his last three games against the 49ers' divisional rival. Treat arguably the league's most-talented TE as a high-end fantasy option if active.


    Bengals at Raiders

    Bengals Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Auden Tate 77 228 4.68 19% 29% Daryl Worley 73 204 4.64
    Slot Tyler Boyd 73 197 4.58 25% 26% Nevin Lawson 69 190 4.48
    Right Alex Erickson 74 203 4.58 10% 12% Trayvon Mullen 73 199 4.46

    Projected shadow matchups: None

    WR/CB breakdown: Stanley Morgan saw some run last week with Alex Erickson (back) banged up. A.J. Green (ankle) remains "day to day" and seems more likely to not play a single snap this season by the minute.

    Ryan Finley's target distribution in his first career start was as follows:

    Both Boyd and Tate are set up well this week against a Raiders Defense that has been significantly better against the run (No. 16 in DVOA) than the pass (No. 29) through 10 weeks.

    Tate trails only Kenny Golladay and D.K. Metcalf in terms of the league's most fantasy-friendly WRs when accounting for red zone and deep ball targets. Still, Finley's reluctance to throw the deep ball in the preseason carried over against the Ravens, as the rookie threw just 2-of-30 passes more than 20 yards downfield. Tate remains capable of catching seemingly anything thrown in his general vicinity, but I'm hesitant to treat him as a realistic fantasy option until Finley demonstrates any level of competency.

    Boyd is the more intriguing fantasy option. His status as the offense's slot and at-time underneath option meshes better with Finley's check-down mentality. Nobody has more targets than Boyd (91) with one or fewer touchdowns through 10 weeks. The absence of starting nickelback Lamarcus Joyner (hamstring) makes this as good of a matchup as possible for the Bengals' starting slot WR.

    TE breakdown: Eifert's spike in snaps in Week 8 proved to be a trade audition of sorts, as the Bengals' long-time TE posted a pedestrian 31% snap rate in Week 10. Don't chase his 6-74-0 and 2-20-1 lines over his last two games: Eifert is a part-time player with a rookie QB on potentially the league's single-worst team. He's nothing more than a touchdown-dependent TE2.

    Raiders Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Tyrell Williams 75 204 4.48 18% 37% William Jackson 72 189 4.37
    Slot Hunter Renfrow 70 184 4.59 15% 14% Darqueze Dennard 71 199 4.51
    Right Zay Jones 74 201 4.45 12% 18% B.W. Webb 70 184 4.51

    Projected shadow matchups: None

    WR/CB breakdown: Derek Carr's target distribution since getting No. 1 WR Tyrell Williams back in Week 8 has been as follows:

    I wouldn't recommend chasing Renfrow's average of 5.3 targets per game considering his 52% snap rate in Week 10 barely edged Moreau (45%).

    The bigger issue is figuring out how to approach Williams and Waller. The Raiders rank 15th in scoring offense and sixth in yards per play: They're anyone's idea of an above-average to solid offense, but their volume has been as spread out as any unit in the league during recent weeks.

    Having bunches of players involved in the offense is a headache for defenses and fantasy investors alike. Treat everyone in the Raiders' passing game with caution ahead of this week's matchup against the Bengals' league-worst defense in overall DVOA. Oakland is presently implied to score a week-high 29.5 points (per FantasyLabs), but it wouldn't be at-all surprising if the offense is largely able to flow through the run game and Josh Jacobs vs. the Bengals' dismal rush defense.

    TE breakdown: Waller had at least eight targets in five of his first seven games, but has caught 5-of-7 targets for 92 scoreless yards over the last two weeks combined. He remains one of the league's more talented receiving TEs and is playing a near every-snap role, but Carr has refrained from feeding a single receiver anything resembling a fantasy-friendly workload with all of his weapons healthy this season. Treat Waller as more of a low-end TE1 this week despite the aforementioned great matchup.


    Patriots at Eagles

    Patriots Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Phillip Dorsett 70 185 4.33 13% 22% Ronald Darby 71 193 4.38
    Slot Julian Edelman 70 198 4.57 25% 29% Avonte Maddox 69 184 4.39
    Right Mohamed Sanu 74 211 4.67 14% 12% Jalen Mills 72 191 4.61

    Projected shadow matchups: None

    WR/CB breakdown: Mohamed Sanu was eased into the lineup in Week 8 and posted a 54% snap rate. Things changed in Week 9, as the Patriots didn't take their shiny-new acquisition off the field in 67 snaps against the Ravens.

    The offense is also expected to get WR N'Keal Harry (hamstring) back sooner rather than later.

    The Patriots have always been one of the league's most difficult teams to figure out when it comes to predicting their scheme and personnel packages. With that said: I wouldn't be surprised if they move forward with a 4-WR offense for the following reasons:

    1. Phillip Dorsett has played a full-time role in every game this season with the exception of Week 2 when Antonio Brown was involved. He's the only Patriots' WR with true field-stretching speed and seems to be locked into 3-WR sets.
    2. Edelman is obviously entrenched as Tom Brady's No. 1 WR and has spent 69% of his snaps in the slot since the Patriots acquired Sanu.
    3. Sanu spent almost an equal amount of time in the slot (51 snaps) as he did out wide (50) in Weeks 8 and 9. Still, he's never been a high-usage outside WR, as his 39 snaps out wide in Week 9 marked the first time since 2014 that he spent at least 30 snaps on the outside. Meanwhile, TE Ben Watson, who the Patriots have released and re-signed this season, spent 44-of-67 snaps in the slot in Week 9.
    4. Harry is the Patriots' 2019 first-round pick and figures to find his way onto the field over the team's 38-year-old TE assuming health and knowledge of the playbook.

    Sanu offers the size and skill-set to thrive in a Gronk-esque role, and the above plan would allow the Patriots to get all of their most-lethal receivers on the field at the same time.

    How the targets will shake out is an entirely different question. My money is on Edelman (22 targets in Weeks 8-9) and Sanu (19) emerging as the offense's go-to targets, as they've worked well ahead of the likes of Dorsett (10), James White (8) and Watson (6) during the last two games. Harry offers elite contested-catch ability and underrated after-the-catch goodness, but the Flash Gordon experiment demonstrated that Brady is more comfortable finding his slot WRs in the underneath areas of the field vs. giving his outside WRs contested-catch chances downfield.

    TE breakdown: Watson's every-down role in the offense hinges on both whether or not the above scenario plays out as well as the health of Ryan Izzo (concussion) and Matt LaCosse (knee). I'd advise against expecting anything resembling consistent fantasy production from Watson at this stage of his career due to the offense's plethora of other capable receiving options at WR and RB alike.

    Eagles Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Alshon Jeffery 75 216 4.53 24% 27% Stephon Gilmore 72 190 4.4
    Slot Nelson Agholor 72 198 4.42 17% 24% Jonathan Jones 69 186 4.33
    Right Mack Hollins 76 221 4.53 9% 12% Jason McCourty 70 193 4.35

    Projected shadow matchups: Alshon Jeffery (ankle) vs. Stephon Gilmore

    WR/CB breakdown: The absence of DeSean Jackson (abdominal, IR) leaves the Eagles without a true field-stretching threat. It seemed like Mack Hollins could function as a poor man's D-Jax once upon a time, but the Eagles' third-year WR doesn't have a reception since Week 4 despite playing at least 45% of the offense's snaps in every game from Weeks 4-9. Nelson Agholor is also off the fantasy radar considering he's caught just 14-of-27 targets for 114 scoreless yards in six (!!!) games since his own fan base mocked his catching ability on live local news.

    Jeffery is the only fantasy-viable WR in an Eagles' offense that funnels production through their pair of talented TEs as well as the run game.

    It's impossible to make a case for Jeffery as a solid fantasy option this week at less than 100% in a likely shadow date against Gilmore, who has won nearly every one-on-one matchup he's been involved in over the past two seasons:

    TE breakdown: Zach Ertz broke out of his three-game slump before the Eagles' Week 10 bye, catching 9-of-11 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown against the Bears. Still, Dallas Goedert (4-39-0 on 5 targets) remained plenty involved and continued to play a full-time role inside of the Eagles' two-TE heavy offense. The Patriots have been dominant against opposing TEs this season. Of course, they've been dominant against pretty much everybody other than Lamar Jackson through 10 weeks. There's a low ceiling for everyone involved in the Eagles Offense ahead of this tough matchup, but Ertz deserves weekly TE1 treatment, and Goedert can continue to be viewed as more of a low-end TE1/upside TE2 with D-Jax out of the picture for the foreseeable future.


    Bears at Rams

    Bears Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Allen Robinson 74 220 4.56 27% 39% Jalen Ramsey 73 209 4.41
    Slot Anthony Miller 71 201 4.55 10% 15% Nickell Robey-Coleman 67 169 4.53
    Right Taylor Gabriel 68 167 4.45 13% 22% Troy Hill 70 182 4.55

    Projected shadow matchups: Allen Robinson vs. Jalen Ramsey

    WR/CB breakdown: Nobody is safe from Ramsey anymore.

    The Rams' No. 1 CB didn't play more than 15 snaps in the slot in a game since his career debut back in 2016 ... up until last Sunday. Overall, Ramsey spent 39-of-73 snaps (53%) inside while traveling with JuJu Smith-Schuster.

    Only the league's very best WRs have managed to give Ramsey anything resembling problems over the years:

    A-Rob rebounded from his 1-6-0 dude in Week 9 by catching 6-of-9 targets for 86 yards against Darius Slay and company last week. The Bears' undisputed No. 1 WR has shown off a tantalizing combination of route-running ability and after-the-catch goodness all season, but this is anyone's idea of a brutal spot. Approach Robinson as more of an upside WR3 that will likely need to win with volume in his matchup against one of the single-best CBs in the league.

    Taylor Gabriel has gained at least 50 yards or scored a touchdown in three consecutive games. The problem is that neither Troy Hill (PFF's No. 14-highest graded CB) nor Nickell Robey-Coleman (No. 15) have been anything resembling liabilities this season. I'd look for better options than Gabriel and (especially) Anthony Miller this week. The latter WR has posted a snap rate below 60% in three consecutive games, as Tarik Cohen has spent more of his time lined up as a true WR than in the backfield during recent weeks.

    TE breakdown: Adam Shaheen was surprisingly a healthy scratch in Week 10, but Trey Burton (calf) left the game after just 20 snaps and failed to take advantage of the opportunity. The potential for limited snaps in Week 11 makes Burton a middling TE2 despite the vote of confidence.

    Rams Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Josh Reynolds 75 194 4.52 6% 11% Prince Amukamara 72 206 4.48
    Slot Cooper Kupp 74 204 4.62 25% 24% Buster Skrine 70 186 4.48
    Right Robert Woods 72 201 4.51 20% 21% Kyle Fuller 72 190 4.49

    Projected shadow matchups: None

    WR/CB breakdown: Only Tyler Boyd (91 targets), Odell Beckham Jr. (79) and D.J. Moore (79) have more pass-game opportunities with one or fewer receiving scores than Robert Woods (71) through 10 weeks. Last week was at least a step in the right direction, as Wood's 11 targets in Week 10 were nearly as many as he had in Weeks 6-8 combined (13).

    Meanwhile, Cooper Kupp and Josh Reynolds posted 0-0-0 and 3-49-0 lines on four and five targets, respectively.

    The entire Rams Offense is a mess at this point and doesn't exactly appear poised to get their act together considering the plethora of injuries they face at the line of scrimmage:

    I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that Kupp won't go without a catch again this season. Still, there's clearly a low floor for everyone involved in this offense, so I'm hesitant in expecting too much from any of the unit's WRs, RBs or TEs in this tough spot.

    Home Goff has been a helluva drug over the years, but this Bears Defense is very much still one of the league's best units against the pass. Only the Panthers (5.6 net yards per pass attempt), Bills (5.2), 49ers (4.4) and Patriots (4.1) have been stingier against opposing passing attacks than the Bears (5.7) on a per-pass basis this season. Each of the defense's starting three CBs have allowed a passer rating below 100 on targets into their coverage through 10 weeks.

    TE breakdown: Gerald Everett has emerged as the epitome of a boom-or-bust TE with 7-136-0, 2-9-0, 4-50-1, 2-15-0 and 8-68-0 lines over the past five weeks. We could project more consistency moving forward if Tyler Higbee was less involved, but Everett still holds weekly low-end TE1 value regardless thanks to his status as a truly #good talent at a mostly-barren position as far as high-end fantasy assets are concerned. Like the Cowboys, the Bears have mostly been a solid pass defense this season, but they've funneled production down the seam and into the underneath areas of the field and rank among the league's bottom-five units in PPR per game allowed to opposing TEs.


    Chiefs at Chargers

    Chiefs Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Demarcus Robinson 73 203 4.59 12% 18% Michael Davis 69 217 4.45
    Slot Sammy Watkins 73 211 4.43 23% 23% Desmond King 70 201 4.65
    Right Tyreek Hill 70 185 4.34 24% 49% Casey Hayward 71 192 4.57

    Projected shadow matchups: None

    WR/CB breakdown: Mecole Hardman has found the end zone in three of the last four weeks despite having a combined six targets and failing to play even 50% of the offense's snaps. The rookie is fast enough to turn his limited touches into six points in a hurry, but there's a terrifyingly low floor here considering you're essentially praying that Hardman manages to convert one of his two-to-three opportunities per game into a touchdown.

    The more-positive factor from Patrick Mahomes' return in Week 10 was Demarcus Robinson again playing a full-time role in the offense. The Chiefs had leaned on Blake Bell and two-TE sets with Matt Moore under center, but Robinson set three-week highs in snap rate (67%) and targets (5) in Week 10.

    Sammy Watkins ranks 13th in hog rate this season, which calculates the numbers of targets a player gets per snap (Player Profiler). He's had the workload of a true fantasy WR1, but we've only seen him reach that upside once. I wouldn't bet my life on Watkins bouncing back this week against stud slot CB Desmond King, although there are worse season-long options than a well-fed No. 2 WR in the league's most-explosive passing offense.

    And then we have Tyreek Hill, who converted a career-high 19 targets into an 11-157-1 line against the Titans last week. He's scored seven touchdowns in six career games against the Chargers, regularly proving too difficult for even the Chargers' No. 1 CB to contain:

    Treat Hill as the league's No. 2 fantasy WR behind only Michael Thomas as long as Mahomes remains under center.

    TE breakdown: Travis Kelce caught 7-of-7 targets for 75 yards and a score in Mahomes' return last week. He had another touchdown nullified by penalty. The Chargers did a good job against the Chiefs' stud TE last season by holding Kelce to 1-6-0 and 7-61-0 lines, but that was with stud safety Derwin James (foot, IR). Don't sweat this matchup and continue to fire up Kelce as a top-three TE regardless of the matchup. He's the overall PPR TE2 this season despite the "down" year.

    Chargers Offense

    Position WR Height Weight Speed Tgt Share Air Yard Share CB Height Weight Speed
    Left Andre Patton 74 200 4.59 7% 16% Charvarius Ward 73 198 4.49
    Slot Keenan Allen 74 206 4.71 26% 34% Tyrann Mathieu 69 186 4.5
    Right Mike Williams 76 218 4.59 17% 29% Bashaud Breeland 71 197 4.62

    Projected shadow matchups: None

    WR/CB breakdown: My single-biggest gripe with any offense in the entire league at the moment is the Chargers' insistence on continuing to feature Andre Patton as a full-time player at the expense of Austin Ekeler. I wouldn't blame you for not having any idea who Patton is: The undrafted rookie has totaled four targets and zero receptions since Week 4. And yet, Patton has posted 82%, 82% and 81% snap rates over the past three weeks while Ekeler has been relegated to 53%, 34% and 45% roles. Even if we want to assume that Patton is a more-viable WR than Ekeler (this is debatable), there's little doubt that Ekeler would be a more serviceable decoy than a rookie that Philip Rivers has essentially ignored the entire season.

    That's my long answer as to why Patton can safely be ignored in fantasy formats of all shapes and sizes.

    Meanwhile, Keenan Allen has double-digit targets in three of the last four weeks and now faces a defense that he's posted 6-63-0, 5-61-0, 5-54-0 and 8-108-1 lines against in their last four non-injury-shortened matchups. The ceiling hasn't been the same for anyone involved in the Chargers' 21st-ranked scoring offense this season, but continue to treat Allen as a volume-induced WR2.

    Mike Williams has 57 targets this season without a touchdown. He's received the league's fourth-most fantasy-friendly target share when accounting for red zone and deep ball opportunities among all WRs with at least 50 targets to this point. I'm continuing to treat Williams as an upside WR3 despite the skid due to my unwavering belief that the former No. 7 overall pick of the 2017 draft is truly #good and will find the end zone before too long.

    The Chiefs have been much better against the pass (No. 5 in DVOA) than the run (No. 31) this season. Still, I wouldn't downgraded Allen nor Williams too severely. Each are talented enough to overcome the likes of Charvarius Ward (PFF's No. 27 ranked CB among 128 qualified corners), Kendall Fuller (thumb, No. 57), Morris Claiborne (No. 64) and Bashaud Breeland (No. 119). 

    TE breakdown: Henry has a position-high 40 targets since returning in Week 6. He's been the overall PPR TE1 during this span. Continue to treat him as an every-week high-end TE1 regardless of the matchup. Only Austin Hooper (17.2 PPR per game) has been more productive on a per-game basis than Henry (15.5) this season.


    Source URL: https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/numbers/nfl-week-11-wrcb-matchups-and-te-analysis