Martin Truex Jr.
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Cap Considerations

2019 Draft Kings High-Cap Productivity

Updated On: November 20, 2019, 2:03 pm ET

Salary cap games are inherently challenging, especially when cap managers do their jobs correctly. In them, it’s not enough to accurately predict a handful of drivers who will be strong during the race, but one must be evaluated in terms of the impact their value has on the remainder of the game.

Scroll down to the bottom of this post for a moment and a few numbers jump out. The chart is broken into four groups that are similar to the ones we used throughout the season with the top level encompassing drivers who had an average cap of more than $10,000. Groups B, C, and D are broken into chunks made up of the next nine most expensive drivers each time.

One of the first things you will notice is that for the majority of the races, the Draft Kings cap manager got the top level correct. There were five drivers who averaged more than $10k and each week, there were either five of six drivers who were that expensive.

The first column is the overall rank in terms of total points earned during the season. With the single exception of Denny Hamlin, who had an average cap of just under the dividing line, the five most expensive drivers all earned the most points for the year.


Kyle Busch tops the list. He scored the most points on eight occasions, and the second-most eight other times. While he was the most expensive driver nearly every week, he was actually more than worth his cap with 64.6 per game. By comparison, Hamlin as the top performing driver under $10 had an average of 51 points-per-week. When Busch missed, it was often by a narrow margin and he earned top-five points 23 times in 36 races (64%).

Busch was outside the top 15 on six occasions, but since most of these came on wild card tracks like the road courses or aero-restricted superspeedways where players typically avoid the most costly drivers, the negative impact was minimal.  

Truex was a distant second in terms of top and second-most rankings. He earned the most points seven times and was second-best on four other occasions. He often minimized the damage, however, and scored an average of 60.6 points per week. Where it cost players $183 per point for Busch, Truex was a better value at $178 per point.

By contrast, the fourth-best points’ earner during the season earned nearly 10 less per week on average.

Kevin Harvick was the top earner only twice during the season: at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and in the November Texas Motor Speedway race. Harvick is one of the drivers that Draft Kings struggled to accurately predict, because the two races in which he earned maximum points were during weeks in which he commanded a relatively low cap of just over $10k.

On average, it cost players $219 for every point Harvick banked. Harvick was a better value on 1.5-milers, however. In 11 races on this track type it cost $167 per point compared to Busch’s $194 and Truex’s $168

The lead Team Penske drivers round out Group A.

Joey Logano was the top earner three times: at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Bristol Motor Speedway in the spring and at Michigan International Speedway in the summer. He earned the second-most one time at Vegas in the fall, but when he missed it was often by a much wider margin that the drivers listed above him and it cost $224 for each point that fantasy players banked.

Brad Keselowski was the top earner twice and both of these were on short tracks. He banked 199 points at Martinsville, but that weekend he commanded a cap of more than $12k. He earned 94.75 points at Bristol in the summer, night race, but the average cost of his points was $244.

Over the next few weeks, we will take a deep dive into the mid-cap and bargain drivers in the Draft Kings game.

 

Overall
Rank

Driver

Avg.
Game
Rank

Total
Points
Earned

Avg.
Points

Average
Cap

Attempts

Group

Group A

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

Kyle Busch

8.2

2,327

64.6

$11,800

36

A

2

Martin Truex Jr.

9.8

2,183

60.6

$10,800

36

A

4

Kevin Harvick

10.4

1,829

50.8

$11,149

36

A

5

Joey Logano

12.3

1,647

45.7

$10,271

36

A

6

Brad Keselowski

13.9

1,540

42.8

$10,463

36

A

Group B

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

Denny Hamlin

11.6

1,835

51.0

$9,863

36

B

7

Kyle Larson

15.4

1,359

37.7

$9,406

36

B

8

Ryan Blaney

14.6

1,350

37.5

$9,100

36

B

9

Kurt Busch

15.8

1,298

36.1

$9,183

36

B

10

Chase Elliott

16.1

1,296

36.0

$9,637

36

B

14

Erik Jones

17.6

1,128

31.3

$8,571

36

B

18

Clint Bowyer

17.8

1,042

28.9

$8,780

36

B

20

Aric Almirola

18.7

1,011

28.1

$8,169

36

B

22

Jimmie Johnson

19.8

929

25.8

$8,014

36

B

Group C

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11

Ryan Newman

15.0

1,272

35.3

$7,603

36

C

12

Alex Bowman

16.6

1,211

33.6

$7,951

36

C

13

William Byron

17.4

1,136

31.5

$7,483

36

C

15

Matt DiBenedetto

18.0

1,106

30.7

$6,969

36

C

16

Chris Buescher

17.5

1,103

30.6

$6,997

36

C

17

Daniel Suarez

17.8

1,066

29.6

$7,631

36

C

19

Paul Menard

17.5

1,042

28.9

$6,934

36

C

23

Austin Dillon

20.9

855

23.8

$7,157

36

C

28

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

22.7

736

20.5

$7,114

36

C

Group D

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

21

Ty Dillon

19.4

986

27.4

$6,254

36

D

24

Ryan Preece

22.9

817

22.7

$6,246

36

D

25

Corey LaJoie

23.4

804

22.3

$5,423

36

D

26

Ross Chastain

22.9

784

22.4

$5,606

35

D

27

Bubba Wallace

22.8

772

21.4

$5,951

36

D

29

Daniel Hemric

23.6

675

18.8

$6,369

36

D

31

Michael McDowell

25.0

630

17.5

$5,871

36

D

32

Landon Cassill

26.4

611

17.0

$5,154

36

D

33

David Ragan

26.8

513

14.2

$5,674

36

D

Part time drivers,
sorted by average points

 

Rank

Driver

Avg.
Rank

Total
Points
Earned

Avg.
Points

Average
Cap

Attempts

Group

1

Brendan Gaughan

14.8

157

39.2

$6,167

4

E

2

Tyler Reddick

13.5

78

39.0

$6,300

2

E

3

Justin Haley

19.3

111

36.9

$5,033

3

E

4

Ryan Sieg

18.0

32

32.0

$5,200

1

E

5

JH Nemechek

20.3

79

26.2

$5,533

3

E

6

Parker Kligerman

21.5

334

23.9

$5,231

14

E

7

JJ Yeley

24.6

305

21.8

$4,987

15

E

8

Matt Tifft

23.3

661

20.6

$5,503

33

E

9

BJ McLeod

27.9

280

15.5

$4,811

19

E

10

Reed Sorenson

28.6

368

14.7

$4,973

26

E

11

Joe Nemechek

28.5

87

14.5

$5,000

6

E

12

Garrett Smithley

30.1

168

12.9

$4,754

13

E

13

Quin Houff

29.3

216

12.7

$4,953

17

E

14

Bayley Currey

29.3

123

12.3

$4,817

12

E

15

Josh Bilicki

30.3

122

12.2

$4,822

10

E

16

Joey Gase

30.2

137

11.4

$4,842

12

E

17

Timmy Hill

31.1

77

11.0

$4,729

7

E

18

Austin Theriault

29.8

53

10.6

$4,771

7

E

19

Cody Ware

31.0

126

9.7

$4,833

16

E

20

Jeb Burton

29.5

19

9.5

$4,833

3

E

21

Kyle Weatherman

33.0

26

8.5

$4,800

4

E

22

Spencer Boyd

34.0

18

6.0

$4,633

3

E

23

Gray Gaulding

34.0

5

5.0

$4,700

1

E

 


Source URL: https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/cap-considerations/2019-draft-kings-high-cap-productivity