The Dallas Stars are the hottest team in the NHL and have put an incredible 13-1-1 run together since October 19. Over those 15 games, the Stars are 5-10 O/U and have covered the puckline as a favorite in five of their last six.
The Stars will entertain the Vegas Golden Knights (2-3 SU, 1-3-1 O/U last five) on Monday as -125 favorites. This is great value for a team that hasn’t lost at home in November and is facing a team that has dropped four straight on the road.
We love the Dallas ML, lean on the Under 5.5 and wouldn’t disagree with the puckline +195 for the trifecta.
FADING THE FLAMES
Monday’s match between the Calgary Flames (1-4 SU, 0-4-1 O/U last five) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (2-3 SU, 3-2 O/U last five) gives bettors a chance to fade the league’s worst offense. Calgary has just eight goals in their last seven games. Over that stretch, Calgary was shut out three times and now has to face a Pittsburgh team that has the fifth-best penalty killing in November and are allowing just 2.23 goals per game at home this year.
Not everyone enjoys playing hockey Unders, especially at 5.5, but the Flames haven’t hit an Over in seven-straight games while the Pens have held opponents to two or fewer goals in five of their last six. Take the Under 5.5 on this Monday night matchup.
Tuesday will give us a battle of two of the top teams in the Atlantic Division. The Boston Bruins (4-1 SU, 1-4 O/U last five) and Montreal Canadiens (1-4 SU, 4-1 O/U last five) have played each other more than any other two teams in NHL history. The head-to-head matchup over the last two years favors the Bruins 6-3 SU as the road team will get a chance to hand the Habs a fifth-straight loss.
The Bruins seem like the obvious play here but Boston goalie Tukka Rask has had his struggles with Montreal over his career as he is 11-17-4 versus the Canadiens. The Bruins have also allowed teams to score four goals or more in five of their last seven road games.
We are passing on the Habs’ ML but will play the plus-money Over on Montreal’s team total of 3.5.
The most penalized team in the league over the last three weeks will take on the Arizona Coyotes (3-2 SU, 1-4 O/U last five) in Anaheim on Wednesday night. The Ducks are shooting themselves in the foot of late averaging over eight minutes of PK time per game. Combine that with their 30th-ranked penalty killing over their last seven games and you can see why Anaheim has won just twice in November (2-8 SU).
The ‘Yotes are playing at a different level than their Wednesday opponents as Arizona has won five of their last eight thanks to great goaltending (92.19 save percentage last three weeks) and a powerplay that is scoring at 20 percent.
Jump on the road team and take Arizona’s ML.
LEAF IT TO KEEFER
The Toronto Maple Leafs lost six-straight games, fired their coach in the middle of a six-game road trip and have responded by going 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS under new coach Sheldon Keefe. The team will look to keep that positive energy rolling for a road date with the Detroit Red Wings (0-5 SU, 3-2 O/U last five) on Wednesday night.
As of Monday, the Wings are losers of six straight and are coming in with just one goal in their last six periods of hockey. The Leafs have already won in Detroit once this year, a 5-2 win that saw them outshoot the Wings 41-27.
We are riding this reborn Toronto team for another go and taking the Leafs’ puckline -1.5.
GOALIE PROFILE: Anton Khudobin, DALLAS STARS
The Stars’ “backup” goalie currently sits fourth in the league in goals against at 2.15 and fourth in save percentage at .929. Khudobin has been stellar for the Central’s second-place Stars, winning four of his last five starts and has allowed more than two goals just once since October 22.
The Stars play back-to-back games on Monday and Tuesday and we expected Anton to get the start on the back end as he has yet to start in consecutive games this year as Ben Bishop is also playing exceptional. The Stars will visit the Chicago Blackhawks on Tuesday, a team that Khudobin just beat 2-1 last week making 38 of 39 saves.
We will be backing the Stars Tuesday on the ML as we may get a good number with Dallas on the road and playing the second game of a back-to-back.
INJURY UPDATE: D Kris Letang, PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
The Penguins could get some big help with the possible return of Kris Letang on Monday versus the Flames. The All-Star defenseman has missed the last eight games but averages 25 minutes of ice time a game (eighth-most in the league) and is 10th in powerplay time per game by defensemen.
Having Letang back on the powerplay could boost a unit that was 23rd in powerplay percentage in his absence. The Flames penalty killing isn’t anything special as they sit 15th in PK percentage.
If Letang suits up, we will play the Over on the Penguins’ team total of 3.5.
HAT TRICK TRENDS
• The Calgary Flames are 6-19 O/U on first-period totals, the lowest mark in the league. Over their last ten, they are 2-8 O/U first-period totals. The Flames travel to Pittsburgh (9-13 O/U first-period totals) on Monday night.
• Staying on the first-period totals, Tuesday will see two of the league’s better Over producers when the Boston Bruins visit the Montreal Canadiens. At home, Montreal is 9-2 O/U first-period totals while the Bruins are 7-2 O/U first-period totals on the road.
• The Washington Capitals are 9-2-1 O/U this year at home and will host the Florida Panthers on Wednesday. The Panthers have hit the Over in six of their last seven games and the total has gone Over in four-straight games between these two clubs.