Tua Tagovailoa
Odds and Ends

2020 NFL Draft: Last-minute sharp bets & more

Updated On: April 23, 2020, 5:45 pm ET

Last-minute sharp NFL Draft bets

At Caesars sportsbooks, senior sports trader Rex Beyers welcomed a big surge of money – all on the mobile app, of course – after well over a month with very limited offerings and action due to the COVID-19 shutdown.

“This has easily been the busiest day for us in Nevada since the last day there were NBA games played,” Beyers told Covers on Wednesday night, alluding to March 11, the last full day of major sports betting on the U.S. landscape.

A popular draft prop in the waning hours at Caesars’ Nevada operation: whether Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert would be selected within the first five picks. The prop opened "Yes" +125/"No" -155, tightened to "Yes" +115/"No" -145, then stretched to "Yes" +130/"No" -160 on late No wiseguy money.

“Herbert to go in the top five has been a good two-way prop both today and since open,” Beyers said.

Will Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert be drafted in the top five? Odds
Yes +130
No -160

At Circa Sports, late bettors were convinced the Miami Dolphins would take a quarterback with their first pick, No. 5 overall. Circa sportsbook operations manager Jeff Benson said the prop opened with "No" a hefty +500 underdog and tightened to +175, with "Yes" -225.

Another quarterback prop on the move Wednesday, and really throughout the past month at Circa, was the Over/Under on when Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts would be drafted. The prop opened at 78.5 and tightened all the way to 58.5.

“We need the Over, and it’s a decent-sized position,” Benson said.

When will Jalen Hurts be drafted? Position
Opening Over/Under 78.5
Closing Over/Under 58.5

Back at Caesars, a prop that drew late interest was whether Georgia offensive tackle Andrew Thomas would go within the first 11 picks.

“We opened 'No' -140/'Yes' +110, and the steam train has been on the Yes,” Beyers said. “One of the sharpest bettors in Nevada bet 'Yes' -160 (Wednesday), enough that I moved it all the way to 'Yes' -185/'No' +155, a full 25 cents.”


Trouble with Tua

Circa and Caesars saw plenty of money on props involving perceived top Alabama NFL Draft prospect Tua Tagovailoa. In fact, Circa needs some help on three such props: Tagovailoa’s overall draft position (which opened with an Over/Under of 3.5 and shot to 5.5), whether the Las Vegas Raiders draft him, or if he goes later in the first round.

“We do not want Tua to fall between 3.5 and 5.5, and Tua to the Raiders or after pick No. 20 are probably are worst-case scenarios for the draft. We have some long odds there,” Benson said, while noting Tagovailoa going to the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 6 or the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 7 would be good behind the counter.

When will Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa be drafted? Odds
Over 5.5 +140
Under 5.5 -160

At Caesars, sharp action landed on both sides of whether Tagovailoa would go in the first six picks, but the late wagers were one-sided.

“We opened 'Yes' -130/'No' even money, now at 'Yes' -300/'No' +240. This is the highest it’s been,” Beyers said. “It was 'Yes' -210 on Monday night at close, then up to -230 and then -260 on Tuesday afternoon, and I went from -270 to -300 on a sharp bet (Wednesday afternoon).”

Source URL: https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/odds-and-ends/2020-nfl-draft-last-minute-sharp-bets-more