Villanova (-13) at Georgetown
Villanova has gone 3-1 SU since returning from their three-week hiatus post-Christmas. The Wildcats dropped their first game since Nov. 28, a 70-59 road loss to St. John's. The Wildcats shot 8/30 (26.7%) from three in that effort, and in both losses this season, Villanova has shot poorly from three. Villanova has allowed the opponents to shoot 43.5% and 50% from deep compared to 43.5% and 45.9% from the field.
Nova's offense was held to season lows in points (59), field goal percentage (32.3%) and 3-point field goal percentage (26.8%) to St. John's. The Wildcats will look to avenge that loss and Georgetown is a good opponent to. Villanova has won three straight games versus Georgetown and 12 out of the last 13. The game total has hit 139 or more in nine of the last 10 meetings.
Villanova has struggled to defend the three on the season, ranking 289th in the country in defensive three-point percentage 36.9%. The Wildcats hold a 52.4% effective field goal percentage (257th), and the Hoyas depend on nothing but the triple.
Georgetown shoots an abysmal 46.9% from the field (270th) but 35.5% from deep (92nd). The Hoyas also shoot free-throws well at 73.4% on the season (88th) and struggle to defend it as well. Georgetown ranks 192nd allowing opponents to hit 33.7% of triples, and Villanova hits 36.6% from three (58th).
Georgetown is coming off two straight wins, beating Providence 73-72 (145) and Creighton 86-79 (165) in two high-scoring games. Prior to that, Georgetown lost five straight and three-of-five games hit 143 points or more.
Georgetown shot 26.1% (6/23) from deep versus Providence and won by one, then got the trey-ball going versus Creighton with 47.6% on 10-of-21. The Hoyas allowed both opponents to hit 38% from deep and score 72 and 79 points.
At home, Villanova has scored 71, 76, 85 and 88 points on the season. Georgetown has scored at least 67 points in four of the last five road games, and if Villanova's three-point defense struggles, the Hoyas could take advantage. Villanova, however, has all eight players average an offensive rating of 100 or more. Georgetown only has three players with an offensive rating of 100 or better, and two-of-three are top four in usage rate on the team.
The Over is 6-2 in Hoyas last eight games following a SU win and 5-0 in Villanova's last five games. The Over is 4-1 in Wildcats last five games as a home favorite and as a favorite in general, and if they score 77-80-plus points, I like the chances Georgetown can score enough points to push the Over. I would play this up to 145 as it opened at 141 and steadily moved up.
Game Pick: Over 144 (1u)
Iowa (-3.5) at Indiana
Iowa is coming off a loss to Ohio State and is now losers in three of the last four games. The Hawkeyes are on a major slide, and now they travel to Indiana versus a sliding Hoosiers squad.
Indiana has lost three of the last four games, all home contests. Iowa is 3-2 SU on the season away from home. Indiana beat Iowa the previous season and three of the last five, also losing two games by six or fewer points. Iowa is playing their worst ball of the season defensively, and Indiana has scored at least 69 points in six straight games entering this matchup.
This is one of those stay away games, but with limited college basketball action today, everyone will want a piece of this game. The Under is gaining steam as sharps have pushed the total from 153 to 151.5. More money is coming in on Iowa, of course, but we all know how that turned out against Ohio State. In seven of the last eight games, Indiana's final scores have combined for 144 or more.
Iowa is 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and 1-3 SU. Indiana is 1-5 ATS in their last six home games and 2-4 SU in those contests. Between the two, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the scores have hit 146 or more in four of the last five games. I lean the Over once again as Iowa is hard to trust right now.
This is game total bet before picking sides, but live betting will provide far better odds for Iowa to win SU with how they have performed lately. Indiana at +150 is not very appealing, and if Iowa goes up by six or seven points, for example, the Hoosiers' live odds will be far juicer and worth playing. I would rather get live odds than place a pre-game bet on this toss up.
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