The Worksheet

The Worksheet: Week 6

Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

As we’re now moving into the heart of the seasons, make sure you get all of your Buccaneers, Rams, Raiders and Cowboys players to the bench this week.


As your token disclaimer and guide to this post, the intent isn’t a linear start/sit guide for rosters, but a vehicle to provide a game by game table of analysis with triple digit facts for the weekend. Take that information in conjunction with your own feelings and apply it to your Daily games and lineup conundrums. If you do wish to see my weekly player rankings, I do them weekly over at Fantasy Pros. Let’s roll into the Week 6 games…


Atlanta vs. New Orleans


Falcons @ Saints
-3 Spread 3
27 Team O/U 24
70.0 Plays/Gm 68.0
62.8 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.8
44.6% Rush % 34.4%
55.4% Pass % 65.6%
32.2% Opp. Rush % 48.4%
67.8% Opp. Pass %



  • With Tevin Coleman returning, Devonta Freeman played 68 snaps to Coleman's nine and Freeman had 84.4 percent of the Atlanta carries, the fifth highest percentage for any back in a game this season.
  • Freeman has rushed for a touchdown in four consecutive games, the first Falcon back to hit that mark since Michael Turner in 2012.
  • Freeman had 16 carries of five or more yards last week, most in the league. He now has 35 carries of five or more yards over the past three weeks, the next closest back (Justin Forsett) has 25.
  • Freeman leads all running backs in carries inside the 10-yard line with 12. He's converted seven of those for touchdowns.
  • Even if you took away all of Devonta Freeman's touchdowns, he'd still be the PPR RB3 behind Jamaal Charles and Matt Forte.
  • After leading the league with 46 targets through the first three weeks, Julio Jones is tied for 23rd in the league in targets (16) over the past two weeks.
  • Opponents are averaging 4.6 red zone trips per game against New Orleans, most in the league.
  • Even with missing a game, Drew Brees' 468 passing yards in the fourth quarter this season are the most in the league.
  • Willie Snead was targeted on 21.6 percent of his snaps last week, the highest percentage for a Saints receiver this season.
  • Brandin Cooks has one week above WR28 and his target share has remained flat at 16.7 percent, 18.4, 21.1, 19.5 and 20.9 percent of the team targets weekly.
  • Saints running backs have 47 receptions this season, tied for the most in the league. Atlanta has allowed 49 receptions to opposing running backs, most in the league.

Trust: Devonta Freeman (on a short week his recent load should be lightened, but he’s locked in)


Bust: Brandin Cooks (made a couple of splash plays last week, but that last second garbage time touchdown was a deodorant for the week), C.J. Spiller (45 percent of his points this season have come on one play), Drew Brees (no longer a set and forget quarterback, Atlanta has allowed just one quarterback to finish higher than QB15)


Reasonable Return: Matt Ryan (a soft matchup should have us salivating, but the Atlanta receivers are ailing and Ryan himself has just one week inside the top-12 scoring quarterbacks), Julio Jones (tasty paper play, but nagging hamstring is limiting him and Atlanta is leaning on the run), Jacob Tamme (24 percent of the team targets last week with the receivers hurting and New Orleans has allowed a top-9 tight end every week), Leonard Hankerson (limited last week with an injury, but also just missed a huge touchdown. Still the third best option on a team with a high projected point total), Mark Ingram (outside of one quarter in Dallas, Atlanta’s run defense has been excellent, but can have a floor coming out of the backfield), Willie Snead (emerging as the safest play from a high volume passing game)


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Cincinnati vs Buffalo

Bengals @ Bills
-3 Spread 3
23.5 Team O/U 20.5
64.2 Plays/Gm 60.2
62.8 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.2
48.3% Rush % 49.5%
51.7% Pass % 50.5%
35.7% Opp. Rush % 31.7%
64.3% Opp. Pass % 68.3%


  • After outsnapping Jeremy Hill 66 to 25 in Week 5, Gio Bernard has now played 85 more snaps than Hill on the season.
  • Hill hasn't had 40 percent of the Bengals rushing attempts since Week 1.
  • Andy Dalton leads the league with 17 completions of 25 or more yards. He had 18 such completions all of 2014.
  • Tyler Eifert is tied with Larry Fitzgerald for the league lead in red zone touchdown receptions with five.
  • Eifert has been a top-7 scoring tight end every week but one so far.
  • A.J. Green hasn’t finished below WR37 in a given week, but has been above WR20 just once.
  • The Bills have gone three and out on 31.7 percent (19 of 60) of their drives, highest rate in the league and average just 17.2 first downs per game, 31st in the league.
  • Buffalo averages just 27.6 pass attempts per game, fewest in the league.



Trust: Andy Dalton (just go with it, a top-12 option every week so far), Tyler Eifert


Bust: Jeremy Hill (another week against a tougher defense in which you’d only be using him for a layup touchdown opportunity), A.J. Green (both Bills boundary corners Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby will make him work), Sammy Watkins (expected back and the matchup is ugly for his return), Charles Clay (the Bengals have yet to allow a top-12 tight end), E.J. Manuel, Marvin Jones


Reasonable Return: Gio Bernard (this offense is better with his versatility and he’s also playing well himself, but has a limited ceiling with lack of touchdown opportunities), Karlos Williams/LeSean McCoy (if one is back, they should be leaned on heavily, if both are back, expect a rough timeshare to stay away from), Mohamed Sanu (has the best matchup of the week from the receiving unit)


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Denver vs Cleveland

Broncos @ Browns
-4 Spread 4
23 Team O/U 20
61.8 Plays/Gm 64.8
64.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 64.8
34.9% Rush % 36.4%
65.1% Pass % 63.6%
36.3% Opp. Rush % 45.7%
63.7% Opp. Pass % 54.3%


  • Emmanuel Sanders had 18 targets 15 or more yards downfield on the season. Demaryius Thomas has 12.
  • Peyton Manning's seven interceptions are the most he's thrown through five games since throwing seven in 2001.
  • Manning's scoring weeks so far: QB32, QB14, QB12, QB28 and QB26.
  • Denver's 4.9 yards per play on offense is only better than Chicago (4.8).
  • Denver ran just five times in the first half last week on 26 plays.
  • The Broncos are 30th in the league in rushing yardage per game at 71.6 yards. Cleveland is allowing 149.4 rushing yards per game, 31st.
  • No tight end has more receptions than Gary Barnidge's 20 over the past three weeks.
  • Barnidge is the first Cleveland tight end to have six or more receptions in three straight games since Ozzie Newsome in 1984.
  • Josh McCown is the first Browns QB to ever throw for 300 or more yards in three straight games.
  • The highest scoring week Denver has allowed to an opposing quarterback is QB18.

Trust: Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas (the offense has been bad, but you can count on these two getting a smattering of targets in a good matchup)


Bust: Josh McCown (has been the second hottest quarterback in Ohio, but runs into a brick wall pass defense), Travis Benjamin, Isaiah Crowell (saved last week with a touchdown reception, but has an equally rough matchup on the ground this week), Owen Daniels (has reached the Jerome Bettis stage of his career, outside of the red zone you’re getting nothing)


Reasonable Return: Peyton Manning (a couple of drops last week could’ve helped his bottom line, but the real bottom line is that Manning is no longer the fantasy Gibraltar we’ve know him as), Duke Johnson (at least six receptions in each of the past three games and the volume will be high again), Gary Barnidge (the receivers for Cleveland are severely outclassed here, if they have any success throwing it will be to Johnson and Barnidge), C.J. Anderson (you can’t trust him in lineups because of his own play and Denver’s overall inability to run, but had his largest share of team carries on the season last week and Cleveland is giving away rushing points)


Chicago vs Detroit


Bears @ Lions
3 Spread -3
20 Team O/U 23
65.4 Plays/Gm 65.4
56.8 Opp. Plays/Gm 61.0
43.7% Rush % 26.6%
56.3% Pass % 73.4%
47.2% Opp. Rush % 48.2%
52.8% Opp. Pass % 51.8%


  • Over the past three weeks, Detroit is last in the league in points per play (.186).
  • Calvin Johnson ranks 8th of all receivers in targets (52), but is 22nd in fantasy points on the season.
  • Johnson has scored or gone over 100 yards receiving in four consecutive games against the Bears.
  • Golden Tate was targeted on 24.3 percent of his snaps last week, his highest total of the season.
  • Tate hasn't scored on his past 67 targets.
  • Theo Riddick has 15 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown in the five combined fourth quarters this season. In the other 15 quarters, he has 15 receptions for 112 yards and a touchdown.
  • Riddick leads all running backs in receiving points at 64.8.
  • Matt Stafford's .288 passing points per attempt are ahead of only Ryan Mallett (.237) for the season.
  • Detroit is allowing the second most passing points per attempt in the league (.576), while Chicago is allowing the fourth most (.567). League average is .426.
  • Matt Forte's 438 rushing yards are the second most he's ever had through five games to start a season. Just two yards shy of his start in 2011.
  • Jay Cutler has scored at least 14 points in all three of his complete games played.
  • Marquess Wilson has been the WR27 and the WR9 over the past two weeks on 19.1 percent of the team targets.

Trust: Calvin Johnson (a reprieve from a long road of tough matchups), Matt Forte, Martellus Bennett (Detroit has been giving to all tight ends not named Jimmy Graham so far)


Bust: Ameer Abdullah (Detroit can’t run even if they wanted to)


Reasonable Return: Matt Stafford (he’s been brutally bad and the offensive line is in shambles, but this one week I’d be alright using him), Jay Cutler (you know what you’re getting from him), Marquess Wilson (with Chicago on bye next week, Alshon Jeffery is likely going to be rested again), Golden Tate, Theo Riddick (I like both passing game to put up modest totals)


Houston vs Jacksonville

Texans @ Jaguars
-2 Spread 2
23 Team O/U 20.5
77.2 Plays/Gm 64.4
63.6 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.2
34.9% Rush % 36.9%
65.1% Pass % 63.1%
47.2% Opp. Rush % 43.1%
52.8% Opp. Pass % 56.9%


  • T.J. Yeldon ranks 34th in rushing points per attempt (.63 points) out of all 38 running backs with 40 or more carries.
  • Yeldon has the 5th most first half rushing attempts (47), but is 22nd in second half attempts (29).
  • Allen Hurns ranks third in points per target at 2.44. Allen Robinson is 27th at 1.80.
  • Hurns is the first Jaguar receiver to have back to back 100-yard receiving games since Justin Blackmon in 2013.
  • Hurns’ weekly target share: 17.5 percent, 12.1, 12.1, 30.0, and 18.2 percent.
  • Robinson's weekly target share: 15.0 percent, 36.4, 27.3, 24.0 and 27.3 percent.
  • Robinson has 22 targets on throws 15 or more yards downfield, second behind only DeAndre Hopkins (26), but has caught only seven of those targets.
  • Blake Bortles leads the league in pass attempts of 15 or more yards (43), but is 22nd in completion percentage (37.2 percent) on those attempts.
  • The NFL average for plays per game is 64.2. DeAndre Hopkins has 69 more snaps played than the next highest receiver through five weeks.
  • Hopkins has 34 percent or more of the Houston targets in three consecutive weeks.
  • Arian Foster played 61 percent of the snaps last week and handled28 of 38 backfield touches.
  • Opponents have 49 points off of turnovers against the Texans, the most in the league.
  • Houston is 31st in points per play (.251).

Trust: DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson


Bust: T.J. Yeldon (near the bottom of nearly every rushing efficiency measure and has limited touchdown upside), Julius Thomas (played 50.8 percent of the snaps in his return, but seen just two targets)


Reasonable Return: Blake Bortles (QB10, QB16, QB6 and QB3 the past four weeks. It’s not pretty, but the points still count), Allen Hurns (living off of efficiency rather than volume with Bortles is a dangerous line to tread weekly), Arian Foster (was far better in the passing game than on the ground, but his floor is safe with that involvement)


Kansas City vs Minnesota


Chiefs @ Vikings
3.5 Spread -3.5
20 Team O/U 23.5
64.2 Plays/Gm 59.8
66.8 Opp. Plays/Gm 65.2
39.3% Rush % 46.4%
60.7% Pass % 53.6%
38.0% Opp. Rush % 41.0%
62.0% Opp. Pass % 59.0%


  • Teddy Bridgewater has just three completions of 25 or more yards, fewest in the league. His 3.9 percent completions of 25 or more yards in also last in the league.
  • Bridgewater has thrown a touchdown once every 57.5 pass attempts this year, last in the league.
  • 54.8 percent of the Vikings offensive yards have been passing, the lowest percentage in the league.
  • The Vikings lead the league in rushing points per attempt at .798.
  • Opponents have scored a touchdown on 77.8 percent (14 of 18) of their red zone trips against the Chiefs, highest in the league.
  • The Chiefs has allowed eight top-20 scoring wide receivers on the season, most in the league.
  • Charcandrick West played 18 snaps to just four for Knile Davis after Jamaal Charles was injured.
  • Only DeAndre Hopkins has more targets (50) and receptions (28) than Jeremy Maclin's 36 targets and 27 receptions over the past three weeks.
  • Travis Kelce's yards per target have declined every week this season, going from 17.7 to 11.6, 8.0, 7.0 to 5.8.
  • Kelce has 186 yards after the catch, the most of any tight end and 6th in the league overall.

Trust: Adrian Peterson, Mike Wallace (until Kansas City shows they are going to limit pass catchers, keep going after them)


Bust: Alex Smith (the highest scoring quarterback week against Minnesota has been QB16), Kyle Rudolph (if he doesn’t score a touchdown, his floor is bottom rung)


Reasonable Return: Jeremy Maclin (weekly involvement has been consistent in making him a safe floor option, even in a matchup where he’ll see Xavier Rhodes often), Teddy Bridgewater (doesn’t have a strong weekly ceiling as he’s limited by volume), but the matchup should create a solid floor to use), Travis Kelce (with Jamaal Charles now lost, he’s their biggest matchup advantage weekly, but hasn’t been a big feature to date), Charcandrick West (should have a receiving floor even if Knile Davis works the goal line, but Minnesota has been strong against the run outside of Week 1, only giving up one long run to Ronnie Hillman)


Miami vs Tennessee

Dolphins @ Titans
3 Spread -3
20 Team O/U 23
61.5 Plays/Gm 65.0
67.5 Opp. Plays/Gm 54.0
26.4% Rush % 45.0%
73.6% Pass % 55.0%
54.4% Opp. Rush % 49.5%
45.6% Opp. Pass % 50.5%


  • Miami has allowed their opponent to rush for over 100 yards as a team in 10 consecutive games dating back to last year, longest streak in the league.
  • Marcus Mariota on throws within 15 yards is 75-104 (72.1 percent) with seven touchdowns to one interception. On throws 15 or more yards he is just 7-24 (29.2 percent) with one touchdown and two interceptions.
  • Tennessee faces just 54.0 plays per game, fewest in the league.
  • Miami has just one sack as a defense and are dead last in sack rate at .8 percent.
  • Jarvis Landry is second in the league in targets inside of the opponent’s 10-yard line (eight), but has yet to convert any for a touchdown.
  • Landry is the only player besides DeAndre Hopkins with double digit targets in every game this season.
  • Just 46.4 percent (13 of 28) of Landry's receptions have gone for a first down, lowest rate of all receivers with 15 or more receptions.
  • Jordan Cameron has seven or more targets in three of four games this season, but his highest weekly finish is TE16.
  • Cameron ranks last in points per target (1.04) of all 21 tight ends with 20 or more targets.
  • The Dolphins are last in the league with 16.2 rushing attempts per game.

Trust: Marcus Mariota (with Miami’s limited pass rush, this week should be far more kind on his return), Delanie Walker (Miami has given up big weeks to Charles Clay and Jordan Reed and has faced Marcedes Lewis and the Jets tight ends in-between)


Bust: Kendall Wright (two bad weeks and two good ones, but only one week with more than six targets), Rishard Matthews (we know Miami is going to shake some things up coming out of the break and Mathews’ role is the most fragile), Antonio Andrews, Dexter McCluster, Bishop Sankey (three guys playing three different roles on an average offense, it’s nearly impossible to feel good chasing this situation weekly), Jordan Cameron

Reasonable Return: Lamar Miller (Dan Campbell is going to want to run the ball out the break and the Titans can be run on), Jarvis Landry (a bunch of targets and receptions are on their way for a so-so amount of yardage), Ryan Tannehill (it’s not shocking that Miami is underdogs based on the early returns of the season, but Tennessee is a team that is unlikely to place them in as bad of a game script that Miami has fought against all season)


Washington vs New York (AFC)

Washington @ Jets
5.5 Spread -5.5
17.5 Team O/U 23
68.2 Plays/Gm 67.2
58.4 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.2
43.9% Rush % 45.4%
56.1% Pass % 54.6%
38.4% Opp. Rush % 40.6%
61.6% Opp. Pass % 59.4%


  • Matt Jones has six of the eight running back carries for Washington inside of the 10-yard line over the past three games.
  • Jamison Crowder's 21 receptions over the past three weeks are tied for the 6th most in the league.
  • Kirk Cousins has the most completions (43), attempts (60), and first down completions (29) on third downs and has the fourth highest completion percentage (71.7 percent) in the league.
  • Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 51.1 percent of their passes against Jets, lowest in the league.
  • The Jets rank first in rushing points allowed per carry (.355 points) and 5th best in passing points per attempt (.283).
  • Opponents have only scored a touchdown on 33.3 percent (three of nine) of their red zone trips against the Jets, lowest in the league.
  • Brandon Marshall is the only receiver to have six or more receptions in every game this season.
  • Marshall’s weekly target share has been 37.5 percent, 29.4, 24.1 and 37.9 percent this season.
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick has been sacked on just 1.3 percent (two of 154) of his drop backs, the lowest percentage in the league.
  • Chris Ivory had 67 percent of the team carries before the bye, his highest total in a game this season, turning in 14 of 29 carries for five yards or more.

Trust: Chris Ivory (healthy and Washington showed they can be run on by teams committed to the run last week), Brandon Marshall

Bust: Alfred Morris (he’s not even worth rostering at this stage if you are still holding), Matt Jones (this is a brutal matchup and Sheldon Richardson will be returning), Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick (his highest scoring week is QB20 despite Marshall being consistently being strong)


Reasonable Return: Eric Decker (a timely bye to get him back to 100 percent), Pierre Garcon (moves around enough to avoid Revis, but the ceiling is low), Chris Thompson (it’s hard to see Washington being effective on the ground, so Thompson should be a part of the game plan), Jamison Crowder (if DeSean Jackson is out again, has shown a usable reception floor)


Arizona vs Pittsburgh

Cardinals @ Steelers
-3 Spread 3
23.5 Team O/U 20.5
59.0 Plays/Gm 58.8
64.4 Opp. Plays/Gm 67.2
46.1% Rush % 44.9%
53.9% Pass % 55.1%
37.6% Opp. Rush % 38.9%
62.4% Opp. Pass % 61.1%


  • Chris Johnson is the first Cardinals running back to rush for 80 or more yards in three straight games since Beanie Wells in 2011.
  • David Johnson ranks 66th in snaps at running back (115) but has weekly finishes of RB23, RB20, RB41, RB16 and RB25.
  • Andre Ellington returned last week and played 13 snaps. All of his touches came in the second half.
  • Arizona has 23 runs of 10 or more yards. They had just 32 all of 2014.
  • The Steelers have allowed just one running back to finish inside the top-20 in a week this season (Dion Lewis RB16 in Week 1).
  • Larry Fitzgerald has 11 receptions of 20 or more yards, most in the league.
  • Fitzgerald has converted five of his six targets inside of the 10-yard line for touchdowns, most in the league.
  • 27.7 percent of Carson Palmer's pass attempts are 15 or more yards downfield, highest percentage of all quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts.
  • Palmer has thrown a touchdown once every 11.4 pass attempts, leading the league.
  • After averaging a league leading 6.8 yards per offensive play through the first three weeks, the Steelers have averaged just 5.1 yards (19th) per play in Mike Vick's two starts.
  • Since returning from suspension, Le'Veon Bell is third in the league in carries (62), fourth in rushing yards (302), third in receptions (18) and second in fantasy points for running backs.
  • Antonio Brown had just 23 percent of the team targets this past week, his lowest total of the season.

Trust: Le'Veon Bell, Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald


Bust: Chris Johnson (with everyone back and this matchup being set up to be a passing game, I believe he’ll be the least effective of the group), Andre Ellington (Pittsburgh limited Danny Woodhead outside of one long reception and until we see his rushing role return, we have to proceed with caution), Antonio Brown (Mike Vick has dampened his outlook and gets a rejuvenated Patrick Peterson, bump him up if somehow Ben Roethlisberger plays), Mike Vick


Reasonable Return: John Brown (three top-24 scoring weeks with at least 20 percent of the team targets in four of five), David Johnson (it’s impractical to keep expecting him to yield results on such limited involvement, but is finding a different way to do it weekly)


Carolina vs Seattle


Panthers @ Seahawks
7 Spread -7
17 Team O/U 23.5
64.8 Plays/Gm 63.8
71.5 Opp. Plays/Gm 59.4
50.6% Rush % 46.1%
49.4% Pass % 53.9%
34.3% Opp. Rush % 44.1%
65.7% Opp. Pass % 55.9%


  • Jonathan Stewart had only 30.3 percent (10/33) of the Panther rushing attempts in Week 4, his lowest share of the season.
  • Stewart ranks 48th in points per touch (.43 points), ahead of only Alfred Morris (.43) of all backs with 40 or more touches.
  • Ted Ginn has three consecutive top-34 scoring weeks, but 35.6 percent of his points have been via touchdown receptions, the largest dependency of any wide receiver with 20 or more targets.
  • Cam Newton has completed just seven of 23 throws 15 or more yards downfield.
  • Newton ranks 35th out of 36 quarterbacks with 40 or more pass attempts with a 55.4 completion percentage.
  • These teams have met four times over the past three seasons including the playoffs. In those games Greg Olsen has 12 receptions for 167 yards total.
  • Jermaine Kearse is third of all receivers with 20 or more targets in yards per target (11.9 yards). He has double digit points in four of five games.
  • Kearse has managed that output despite seeing 13 percent of fewer of the team targets in three of five games.
  • Jimmy Graham ranks 11th in tight end targets (28), 6th in points per target (1.91), 9th in yards per target (7.3) and 13th in yards per reception (9.7).
  • Graham's receptions per game (4.2), yards per game (40.8) are his lowest season totals since his rookie year.
  • Russell Wilson has just one fantasy finish above QB15 through four weeks and the quarterback scoring weeks so far against Carolina have been QB25, QB19, QB23 and QB24.
  • Over the past three weeks, Seattle is tied with Chicago for last in the league in red zone trips per game at 1.7.

Bust: Cam Newton (has been running to keep his viability in fantasy, but this is a game where he may be required to pass for production), Greg Olsen, Jonathan Stewart, Ted Ginn, Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Jimmy Graham


Reasonable Return: Russell Wilson (Carolina has been tough on opposing quarterbacks, but Wilson is the best they’ve faced by a wide margin. Still, Wilson and this Seattle offense have shown no reason to believe they’ll go out and shred a tough matchup), Marshawn Lynch (he’s had two weeks to heal and Carolina allowed 106 yards to Doug martin last time out)


Baltimore vs San Francisco


Ravens @ 49ers
-2.5 Spread 2.5
23 Team O/U 20.5
67.8 Plays/Gm 62.4
68.6 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.8
40.1% Rush % 46.5%
59.9% Pass % 53.5%
38.8% Opp. Rush % 41.7%
61.2% Opp. Pass %



  • San Francisco is allowing 9.2 adjusted yards per pass attempt (AY/A), the third highest in the league. League average is 7.1 AY/A.
  • The 49ers are allowing 6.4 yards per play, second most in the league.
  • Last week was the first time ever Flacco had two rushing touchdowns in the same game. 49.6 percent of his fantasy points came from rushing, the 5th highest rushing dependency for any quarterback in a game this season.
  • Just 27.3 percent (53) of Joe Flacco's 194 pass attempts have gone for a first down, lowest percentage in the league.
  • Justin Forsett has four games with at least four receptions, tied for the league lead at running back.
  • Forsett has 14 carries with negative yardage, tied with T.J. Yeldon for the most of all running backs.
  • Colin Kaepernick had more completions (23) and passing yards (267) last week than in his two previous games combined (22 and 227).
  • Carlos Hyde had 77.8 percent of the San Francisco rushing attempts last week, his highest percentage of the season.
  • After seeing 20.9 percent of the team targets through three weeks, Anquan Boldin has 31.7 percent over the past two weeks.

Trust: Anquan Boldin (still the main target for San Francisco and reliable when Kaepernick plays adequately. Baltimore has been giving to wide receivers and has a better individual matchup than Torrey Smith), Steve Smith (if he goes, lead receivers have posted big numbers against the 49er secondary consistently)


Bust: Torrey Smith (even with this passing game showing life last week, it was on quick throws near the line of scrimmage)


Reasonable Return: Joe Flacco (he masked his fantasy performance last week with rushing scores, but the matchup here can carry his depleted support group. Bump him up if Steve Smith plays), Justin Forsett (nursing an ankle injury may be limited), Kamar Aiken  (even if Smith plays, Baltimore should be more pass heavy this week and if he doesn’t, will be the lead target again), Carlos Hyde (has shown to be completely game script dependent and this is a game that can stay relatively neutral despite a poor matchup for rushing efficiency), Colin Kaepernick (looked like a functional passer and Baltimore has been shredded through the air so far)


San Diego vs Green Bay

Chargers @ Packers
10 Spread -10
20 Team O/U 30
66.4 Plays/Gm 62.4
57.2 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.6
37.1% Rush % 48.4%
62.9% Pass % 51.6%
45.8% Opp. Rush % 41.9%
54.2% Opp. Pass % 58.1%


  • James Jones leads all receivers with 20 or more targets in points per target at 3.68. Average for those receivers is 1.75.
  • Jones had at least 20 percent of the Green Bay targets just once so far this season.
  • For the second week in a row, Ty Montgomery played the most snaps (64) of the Packer receivers.
  • Eddie Lacy actually has fewer rushing yards (257) than he did at this time last year (266) on just three fewer carries.
  • San Diego has allowed a top-9 scoring running back in every game this season.
  • Green Bay is running on 48.4 percent of their offensive plays, third highest percentage in the league.
  • In his first game back from suspension, Antonio Gates played 56.6 percent of the snaps and led the team in targets (11), receptions (nine) and receiving yards (92). It was the fourth most points scored by a tight end in a game this season.
  • In Philip Rivers' three starts at home this season, he's been the QB7, QB1, and QB9. In his two starts on the road he's been the QB24 both times.
  • Melvin Gordon ranks 31st of all backs with 40 or more carries in rushing points per attempt (.38).
  • After being targeted just seven times through four weeks with six receptions for 34 yards, Gordon was targeted nine times last week, catching seven passes for 52 yards. It was the first game in which he had more targets than Danny Woodhead.
  • Keenan Allen has had two top-12 scoring weeks and both came when he had 40 percent of more of the team targets. In the other three weeks, he’s had 14.8 percent, 18.4 percent and 20.8 percent.

Trust: Eddie Lacy (if it doesn’t happen this week with everything lined up, it may be a long ride rest of the way), Antonio Gates (picked up right where he left off a season ago on only half of the snaps)


Bust: Philip Rivers (San Diego’s team total has me concerned paired with being such large underdogs to go along with Rivers’ road performances to start the season), Melvin Gordon (played heavily last week and made a floor with receptions, but this offensive line is in a bad spot to completely trust him as a heavy road underdog), Randall Cobb (Jason Verrett is a real problem for receivers and I’d expect him to be on Cobb often)


Reasonable Return: Danny Woodhead (the layout looks right for him to be involved, but San Diego threw a ton last week and he Gordon outsnapped him 46 to 29. The shift to Gordon being the feature back for this offense could be in motion), Keenan Allen (Green Bay is tough on the outside, but is the most reliable piece outside of Gates in the passing game), Aaron Rodgers (this passing game hasn’t looked great over the past two weeks and San Diego’s corners do match up well against the Packer receivers, but I’m not moving off of Rodgers completely in a home start), James Jones (the volume remains low, but there aren’t many WR3’s out there that have his weekly touchdown upside), Ty Montgomery (this sets up as a game where Lacy should thrive, but also one where the receivers outside of Cobb will need to make some plays)


New England vs Indianapolis


Patriots @ Colts
-7.5 Spread 7.5
31 Team O/U 24
66.2 Plays/Gm 63.6
63.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.0
35.5% Rush % 37.1%
64.5% Pass % 62.9%
38.1% Opp. Rush % 42.9%
61.9% Opp. Pass % 57.1%


  • In the past three meeting between these teams, the Patriots have run for 185, 246 and 177 rushing yards as a team.
  • The Colts have allowed just one rusher to reach 60 yards in a game so far this season.
  • Dion Lewis outsnapped LeGarrette Blount 43 to 17 last week. Nine of Blount's 13 rushing attempts came in the second half.
  • Lewis leads all backs with 40 or more touches in points per touch at 1.37 points.
  • Lewis has lost yardage on just one of his 36 rushing attempts. That 2.8 percent rate is the best in the league of all backs with 25 plus attempts.
  • Rob Gronkowski leads all tight ends with eight catches of 20 or more yards.
  • Including the postseason, Gronkowski has scored six touchdowns in his past four games against the Colts.
  • Julian Edelman has six consecutive games with 80 or more receiving yards; the next closest player has three.
  • In four career games against the Patriots, Andrew Luck led teams are 0-4 by a combined score of 189-73.
  • Luck has a 6 to 10 touchdown to interception ratio in those four games.
  • Frank Gore leads the league with eight carries inside of the opponent's 5-yard line. He had five such carries all of 2014.
  • T.Y. Hilton has the most targets (50) on the season without a touchdown reception.

Trust: Tom Brady (weekly ranks of QB1, QB2, Qb6, QB5 so far this season), Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Dion Lewis


Bust: Andre Johnson (I don’t believe last week’s usage was completely manufactured by opponent, but outside of the red zone he still wasn’t explosive), Coby Fleener/Dwayne Allen (when both play, just stay away)


Reasonable Return: LeGarrette Blount ( I don’t believe this shapes up to be a “Blount Game” as some are describing it as since New England is built to play open, but I expect them to score a lot, creating scoring opportunities), Andrew Luck (was playing poorly before injury, especially on vertical throws. We’ll need to see how healthy he truly is before going all in again), Frank Gore (New England can be run on and Indy will try to keep this close for as long as possible), T.Y. Hilton (no more Revis and he’s still led the team in targets every week except one), Donte Moncrief (his usage dipped last week, reminding us there’s a floor there, but he’s still an explosive player they’ll need to feature this week)


New York (NFC) vs Philadelphia


Giants @ Eagles
3.5 Spread -3.5
23 Team O/U 27
65.6 Plays/Gm 64.0
68.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 72.6
38.7% Rush % 38.4%
61.3% Pass % 61.6%
34.1% Opp. Rush % 37.8%
65.9% Opp. Pass % 62.2%


  • The Giants have the 5th lowest rushing points per attempt (.454) while Philadelphia allows just .397 rushing points per attempt, the second lowest.
  • DeMarco Murray had six runs of five or more yards last week after having just four in his first three games.
  • Murray now has 10 carries of five or more yards on 49 total attempts. Ryan Mathews has 17 on 41 carries.
  • Since having 12 touches for 126 total yards Week 1, Darren Sproles has 30 offensive touches for 109 yards since.
  • The Eagles ran a season high 79 offensive plays last week, their first time reaching 70 in a game all season. They ran 70 plus plays in 10 games in 2014.
  • New York has allowed 250 or more passing in seven consecutive games. Philadelphia has allowed the same in six straight games. They are the second and third longest streaks in the league behind Oakland at eight games.
  • After seeing at least 24 percent of the team targets in every game, Jordan Matthews had just 15.6 percent last week.
  • Out of all Giants running backs, none have yet to be the highest scorer out of the backfield two weeks in a row, but Shane Vereen is the only one with multiple top-24 scoring weeks.


Trust: Odell Beckham (has an extra day to get his hamstring right), Eli Manning (playing tremendous in terms of real and fake football right now), Sam Bradford (has survived to poor first halves the past two weeks and still come on to be a top-12 scorer each week)


Bust: Rashad Jennings, Darren Sproles, Ryan Mathews (playing efficiently, but doesn’t have a touch count we can bank on), Larry Donnell (last week was the first touchdown the Eagles allowed to a tight end since Week 2 of last season)


Reasonable Return: Jordan Matthews (appears in his own head in terms of leaving opportunities on the field, but will have the best matchup on the interior of all Philly receivers), DeMarco Murray (it wasn’t a great week in terms of efficiency last week, but it was a step in the right direction), Shane Vereen (the Giants can’t run and will need to score points. With their receiving unit banged up, Vereen should have a big role again)


Context Key:


Trust = Set him in your lineups this week

Bust = Player to underperform season average

Reasonable Return = On par with seasonal average

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