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The Gambling Solution: 10/29

Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

The Seahawks dominated the 49ers as they came away with a 20-3 victory.  Jeff nailed both the side and total with the Seahawks and under.  Jeremy split his selections as he won with the Seahawks, but came up empty with the over.  This Thursday night features the undefeated Patriots hosting the resurgent Dolphins in a key AFC East contest.  Can the Dolphins continue their strong turnaround under their new head coach and upset the Patriots?  Let's get to the picks.


Thursday night record

Jeremy: 1-1 (last week); 7-5-2 (season)
Jeff: 2-0 (last week); 6-6-2 (season)

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Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-7.5)

Total Points: 51.5

Jeff: QB Tom Brady and the Patriots come off a tough home win against the Jets.  The Dolphins made it two straight wins under new head coach Dan Campbell as they destroyed the Texans 44-26.  The Dolphins built up a 41-0 halftime lead and coasted the rest of the way.  The Dolphins now travel to Gillette Stadium to take on the undefeated Patriots.  The Dolphins do look better since firing Joe Philbin, but let's temper expectations.  During their two game winning streak, they have beaten the Titans and Texans.  Those teams have a combined season win total of three games.  The Patriots’ offense has been clicking all season as they average a league-high 35.5 points/game.  The Jets entered their game last week versus the Patriots with the top-rated defense in the league, and the Patriots put up 30 points.  The Dolphins’ defense will have their work cut out for them trying to slow them down.  Look for QB Tom Brady to pick this defense apart as he should have no problem moving the football up and down the field.  WR Julian Edelman and TE Rob Gronkowski will again be keys in the passing game as both players will get into the end zone in this matchup.  WR Danny Amendola will also be in the mix for targets as he has been solid thus far in this offense.  The Patriots’ defense will once again key on stopping the running game.  They did a great in slowing down RB Chris Ivory as their focus now turns to RB Lamar Miller.  In the end, the Patriots’ offense will be too much for the Dolphins ‘defense to contend with as they'll come away with a double-digit victory.  Quick trend supporting the Patriots here as they are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games when the total is 49.5 or greater.  As for the total, I'll side with the over here as I think this will be a high-scoring game with plenty of big plays in the passing game.

Pick: Patriots -7.5
Total points: Over 51.5

Jeremy: The Miami Dolphins travel to Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots in Thursday night AFC East action. Miami is coming off two straight wins under new coach Dan Campbell. In those games, they have scored 82 points combined while giving up 36. The defense has looked solid and RB Lamar Miller has been reincorporated into the offensive game plan rushing for 288 yards and accounting for three touchdowns. New England is coming off an ugly 30-23 win over the Jets in which Tom Brady was their leading rusher and the wide receivers dropped 12 passes.  Despite his receivers having a serious case of the drops, Brady still threw for 355 yards and two touchdowns against the vaunted Jets’ secondary. The Patriots will face another strong defense this week as Miami possesses one of the most talented front sevens in the NFL. Cameron Wake has come alive recently with six sacks in his last two games and Ndamukong Suh has seemed more motivated under Campbell notching his first two sacks of the year in the win over Houston.  The Patriots’ battered offensive line will have to find a way to contain the Miami pass rush similar to how they minimized the damage against the Jets. Defensively, New England has been better against the run lately but the secondary has continued to struggle and some key Jets drops and penalties could have very easily cost the Patriots the win last week. The posted total for this game is 51.5. Each team has gone over the posted total in four of their games this season. With the way Brady has been playing, even with a weakened offensive line, I expect New England to put up at least 30 points. With Miami’s renewed commitment to the run, it opens the passing game for QB Ryan Tannehill to take advantage of the Patriots’ secondary and score right around their average. Take over 51.5. As for the side, if this game were being played in Miami, I would like the Dolphins. However, New England is tough to beat at home and Miami’s recent success hasn’t exactly come against the meat of the NFL leading me to lean towards New England.

Pick: Patriots -7.5
Total points: Over 51.5

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