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Divisional Grind Down: WR/TE

Updated On: December 3, 2018, 6:02 pm ET

We didn’t have the best week of football in the Wild Card Round, but there are some terrific games on the slate this weekend in the Divisional Round. Typically at this point in the season, it’s tough to find value for fantasy purposes, but with so many injuries across the league, there are a number of value plays. Here are my favorite wide receiver and tight end targets for both cash games and tournaments on FanDuel.

 

 

 

Wide Receiver

 

Cash Game Targets:

 

Demaryius Thomas: $8,100 (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:         82.2%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):             15.9%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       Pittsburgh Steelers

WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):         27 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):     31 of 32

 

With Antonio Brown out, Thomas is the premier play at wide receiver this weekend. Even though Peyton Manning hasn’t shown that he can throw the deep ball, he may not have to against the Steelers. Their secondary has been downright awful this season, allowing the second most fantasy points to wide receivers. They are also ranked 27th in FootballOutsiders’ DVOA against number one receivers.

 

 

Michael Floyd: $6,500 (vs. Green Bay Packers)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:         62.0%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):             10.4%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       Green Bay Packers

WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):         22 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):     6 of 32

 

Floyd is typically thought of as more of a tournament play, but his price is cheap enough that he deserves consideration on all league formats. Over the last month of the season, he had a higher target rate than Larry Fitzgerald. He draws a favorable matchup this week against the Packers, who are ranked 21st in DVOA against number one receivers.

 

 

James Jones: $6,500 (at Arizona Cardinals)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:         90.2%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):             14.5%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       Arizona Cardinals

WR2 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):         3 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):     5 of 32

 

Jones is likely going to get overlooked this week, but he is one of the few receivers that we can realistically project to see double-digit targets. The matchup isn’t great, but Jones should be the primary weapon for Aaron Rodgers this week. Davante Adams has already been ruled out and Randall Cobb is going to have to deal with Patrick Peterson. Game flow also expects to be in Jones’ favor, as the Packers are the seven-point underdogs.

 

 

 

Tournament Targets:

 

Emmanuel Sanders: $7,700 (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:         83.2%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):             13.7%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       Pittsburgh Steelers

WR2 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):         23 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):     31 of 32

 

The majority of people that are targeting a Broncos’ receiver this week are going to side with Demaryius Thomas. He has more upside of the two and he is only $400 more. However, a nice pivot in tournaments is to go with Sanders. He run a lot of short to intermediate routes and he’ll be facing a Steelers’ defense that is ranked 23rd in DVOA against number two receivers.

 

 

Doug Baldwin: $7,400 (vs. Carolina Panthers)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:         73.5%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):             10.5%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       Carolina Panthers

WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):         3 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):     11 of 32

 

There isn’t exactly a weak link in the Carolina Panthers secondary, but Baldwin should avoid the coverage of Josh Norman for the most part. Norman only lined up in the slot on two percent of his total snaps this season. Baldwin should see a heavy dose of targets this week, as he has become Russell Wilson’s top weapon. He has two-touchdown type of upside and he is affordable at $7,400.

 

 

Martavis Bryant: $7,100 (vs. Denver Broncos)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:         76.4%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):             12.0%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       Denver Broncos

WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):         4 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):     2 of 32

 

It’s so difficult to predict how the Steelers’ offense will fare against the Broncos this week. The last time these teams met, Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams (who are both out this week) were both in the lineup. With both players out, Roethlisberger has to throw to someone right? The matchup against the Broncos’ secondary isn’t a great one, but Bryant could see 15+ targets this weekend.

 

 

 

Tight End

 

Cash Game Target:

 

Greg Olsen: $6,500 (vs. Seattle Seahawks)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:         99.0%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):             8.3%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       Seattle Seahawks

TE DVOA (FootballOutsiders): 26 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):     21 of 32

 

The obvious play at tight end last week was Jordan Reed. That worked out well if you went with the chalk and probably came back to bite you if you faded him. This week, the obvious play is Olsen. The Seahawks have a stout defense, but they have struggled to defend tight ends. On the season, they are ranked 26th in DVOA against the position.

 

 

Tournament Target:

 

Travis Kelce: $6,600 (vs. New England Patriots)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:         93.1%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):             9.4%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       New England Patriots

TE DVOA (FootballOutsiders): 15 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):     8 of 32

 

Kelce has been a frustrating fantasy option this season. Despite his immense talent, the Chiefs refused to give him a heavy workload during the regular season. They certainly made an effort to get him the ball in the Wildcard game though, as he caught eight of his ten targets for 128 yards. He’s a nice pivot in tournaments, as you could gain a big edge on the field if he out produces Greg Olsen.

 

 


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