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The Price is Right: Auctions

by Ryan Knaus
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

This column on auction-draft values covers a lot of ground, so I'll eschew a long introduction in favor of a simple table of contents.


Part 1: Examines current Yahoo! auctions to determine the relative abundance or scarcity of positions (PG, SG, SF, PF and C), both across the top-150 and within the top few rounds.

Part 2: 8-cat auction values are explored, and a 'realistic' list of top-150 values is provided

Part 3: 9-cat auction values are explored, and a 'realistic' list of top-150 values is provided

For both Part 2 and Part 3, anyone who has subscribed to the Guide will have access to a full spreadsheet including all 8-cat/9-cat values and the formulas used to arrive at them. This includes an interactive table which allows you to instantly tailor every player's value to your draft strategy.

 

If you want to spend big on a stud, set Round 1 to 35% of your budget and reduce the amount available for the later rounds -- the projected values will update automatically. If you prefer to sit back and absorb value-picks in the middle rounds, scale back the first few rounds (perhaps to 20% and 15%), and boost the middle rounds accordingly.

 

Part 1

 

The first chart looks at the average $ value of players in Yahoo! auction drafts. I have it divided into "rounds," which are simply blocks of 12 players from most expensive to least expensive. This gives you an idea what you're up against, and what you'll typically have to spend to acquire players at different stages of the draft.

 

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

 

The chart below shows how many eligible players there are at each position among Yahoo's top-150 (players with the highest auction prices). There are more than 150 in the chart because Yahoo is supremely lenient with position-eligibility -- if a player qualifies at two or three positions, I've included all of them. There are in fact 247 'eligibilities', or 1.65 per player.

 

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

 

The distribution is quite even with the exception of point guards, who represent only 17.4% of all available 'eligibilities' (compared to 21.1% for shooting guards and power forwards). Now let's take a look at the distribution of eligibility in the top-50 -- are the elite players balanced evenly, or skewed toward one or more position?

 

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

 

To my surprise, there are nearly twice as many PF- and C-eligible players within the top-50 most expensive auction picks. I've shown in the past that elite SGs and SFs are relatively scarce, so that didn't surprise me, but the relative paucity of early-round PGs certainly did. Part of this trend may be that owners are paying up to land elite big men, aware that they drop off rather quickly, but there are in fact many excellent bigs in the early rounds: Anthony Davis, DeMarcus, Horford, Millsap, LaMarcus, Ibaka, Vuc, Blake, Draymond, etc. etc. This top-heavy concentration also means that PF- and C-eligible players will be relatively scarce in the 51-100 range of your auctions. It's something to keep in mind as you develop a strategy.

 

Part 2

 

This section deals explicitly with auction values for 8-cat leagues, assuming a $200 budget, 12 teams and 13 rounds. I've selected the top 156 players (12-team league with 13 rounds) as determined by my own rankings, which are roto ranks weighted by projected games played. If you want to know more about my rankings, check out the column from last week by clicking here (Draft Guide subscribers can see the rankings and view the full spreadsheet). Note: I intend to update the rankings this week, so follow me on Twitter (@Knaus_RW) if you want to know when those updates are posted.

 

Explanation of columns:

 

8-cat WEIGHTED BY GAMES = Adjusted z-scores based upon projected stats

 

"Realistic" Auction Value = To arrive at these figures, I first determined a "realistic $ per z-score" for each round, then multiplied the z-scores by that figure (note that when I say "round" I'm simply referring to each block of 12 players, from the highest-ranked to the lowest). This $ figure is tethered to a table with a projected % of budget for each round.

 

It's currently set up as seen below, but Draft Guide owners can tweak it to suit their needs by acquiring the spreadsheet. It’s posted here as a Google Doc for viewing, if you want the Excel file with original formatting and formulas, send me an email or (better yet) a Direct Message on Twitter…be sure to include your email address!

 

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

 

% of Total $ = This represents every player's cost based upon the pool of available cash. If Marcin Gortat goes for $15 as the 30th player nominated in your auction, and Jonas Valanciunas goes for $14 as the 70th player nominated, that doesn't make JV a steal -- he probably cost a bit more in a relative sense. It's interesting to note that (based on my theoretical model) almost every player hovers around 2%-3% of the available cash pool, until right around pick 100 when cash is drying up and relative values begin to escalate.

 

With that necessary information out of the way, let's check out the results.

 

Name

8-cat WEIGHTED BY GAMES

"Realistic" Auction Value (8-cat)

% of Total $

Stephen Curry

16.3

$72.95

3.01%

James Harden

15.8

$70.97

3.02%

Anthony Davis

14.5

$64.92

2.85%

Kevin Durant

14.1

$62.93

2.85%

Russell Westbrook

12.9

$57.71

2.69%

DeMarcus Cousins

11.7

$52.62

2.52%

Chris Paul

11.4

$51.24

2.51%

Damian Lillard

10.7

$48.06

2.42%

LeBron James

10.7

$47.92

2.47%

John Wall

10.5

$47.00

2.49%

Jimmy Butler

9.4

$41.96

2.28%

Klay Thompson

9.3

$41.72

2.32%

Kawhi Leonard

8.9

$38.43

2.18%

Blake Griffin

8.4

$36.26

2.11%

Paul Millsap

8.3

$35.94

2.13%

Rudy Gobert

8.2

$35.48

2.15%

Eric Bledsoe

8.2

$35.47

2.20%

Victor Oladipo

8.1

$35.07

2.22%

Draymond Green

8.1

$34.89

2.26%

Nicolas Batum

7.9

$34.17

2.27%

Carmelo Anthony

7.9

$34.17

2.32%

Marc Gasol

7.8

$33.83

2.35%

Kyle Lowry

7.8

$33.66

2.39%

Nikola Vucevic

7.5

$32.63

2.38%

Gordon Hayward

7.5

$32.46

2.42%

Greg Monroe

7.5

$25.96

1.99%

Jeff Teague

7.4

$25.74

2.01%

Chris Bosh

7.3

$25.55

2.03%

Nerlens Noel

7.2

$25.20

2.05%

Kyrie Irving

7.2

$25.08

2.08%

Paul George

7.2

$25.06

2.12%

Serge Ibaka

7.1

$24.67

2.14%

Rudy Gay

7.0

$24.49

2.17%

Pau Gasol

7.0

$24.33

2.20%

Brandon Knight

6.9

$24.09

2.23%

LaMarcus Aldridge

6.8

$23.69

2.24%

Al Horford

6.8

$23.56

2.28%

Kevin Love

6.4

$20.50

2.03%

Goran Dragic

6.4

$20.49

2.07%

Reggie Jackson

6.4

$20.37

2.10%

Mike Conley

6.4

$20.34

2.14%

Tyreke Evans

6.3

$20.19

2.17%

Derrick Favors

6.3

$20.06

2.21%

Karl-Anthony Towns

6.2

$19.74

2.22%

Brook Lopez

6.2

$19.65

2.26%

Giannis Antetokounmpo

6.1

$19.47

2.29%

Danny Green

6.0

$19.01

2.29%

Trevor Ariza

5.9

$18.65

2.30%

Khris Middleton

5.8

$18.55

2.34%

Tobias Harris

5.7

$19.02

2.46%

Hassan Whiteside

5.6

$18.79

2.49%

Monta Ellis

5.5

$18.32

2.49%

Kemba Walker

5.4

$18.12

2.53%

Ricky Rubio

5.3

$17.80

2.55%

Isaiah Thomas

5.3

$17.69

2.60%

Nikola Mirotic

5.3

$17.69

2.67%

Jonas Valanciunas

5.3

$17.57

2.72%

Danilo Gallinari

5.2

$17.38

2.77%

Tyson Chandler

5.1

$17.18

2.81%

George Hill

5.1

$17.02

2.87%

Michael Carter-Williams

5.0

$13.46

2.33%

Al Jefferson

5.0

$13.46

2.39%

DeMarre Carroll

5.0

$13.36

2.43%

Kyle Korver

5.0

$13.33

2.48%

Kenneth Faried

4.9

$13.24

2.53%

Marcin Gortat

4.9

$13.15

2.58%

Gorgui Dieng

4.9

$13.14

2.65%

DeAndre Jordan

4.7

$12.76

2.64%

Deron Williams

4.7

$12.72

2.70%

DeMar DeRozan

4.7

$12.69

2.77%

Andrew Wiggins

4.7

$12.65

2.84%

Terrence Jones

4.5

$12.04

2.78%

Robin Lopez

4.4

$11.89

2.83%

Tim Duncan

4.4

$11.85

2.90%

Jarrett Jack

4.3

$10.17

2.56%

Zach Randolph

4.3

$10.17

2.63%

Kobe Bryant

4.3

$10.15

2.70%

J.R. Smith

4.3

$10.15

2.77%

Dwyane Wade

4.3

$10.11

2.84%

Chandler Parsons

4.2

$10.01

2.89%

Ty Lawson

4.2

$9.84

2.93%

Darren Collison

4.1

$9.61

2.95%

Thaddeus Young

4.0

$9.49

3.00%

Roy Hibbert

4.0

$9.48

3.09%

Elfrid Payton

4.0

$9.44

3.17%

D'Angelo Russell

4.0

$9.44

3.27%

Robert Covington

4.0

$9.42

3.38%

Bradley Beal

3.9

$8.99

3.34%

Markieff Morris

3.9

$8.94

3.43%

C.J. McCollum

3.9

$8.94

3.55%

Enes Kanter

3.6

$8.25

3.40%

J.J. Redick

3.6

$8.17

3.49%

Dirk Nowitzki

3.6

$8.16

3.61%

Otto Porter Jr.

3.5

$8.02

3.68%

Derrick Rose

3.3

$7.56

3.60%

P.J. Tucker

3.3

$7.52

3.72%

Ryan Anderson

3.2

$7.42

3.81%

Andre Drummond

3.2

$6.77

3.61%

Patrick Patterson

3.2

$6.72

3.72%

Jordan Clarkson

3.2

$6.72

3.86%

Emmanuel Mudiay

3.1

$6.66

3.98%

Joakim Noah

3.1

$6.60

4.11%

Luol Deng

3.1

$6.48

4.21%

Al-Farouq Aminu

3.0

$6.34

4.30%

Brandan Wright

3.0

$6.34

4.50%

Zach LaVine

2.9

$6.23

4.62%

Rajon Rondo

2.9

$6.20

4.82%

Eric Gordon

2.9

$6.09

4.98%

Wilson Chandler

2.9

$4.39

3.78%

Ben McLemore

2.8

$4.37

3.91%

Aaron Gordon

2.8

$4.30

4.00%

Harrison Barnes

2.7

$4.21

4.08%

Meyers Leonard

2.7

$4.13

4.17%

Rodney Hood

2.7

$4.08

4.31%

Dwight Howard

2.6

$3.99

4.40%

Kevin Martin

2.5

$3.84

4.42%

Joe Johnson

2.5

$3.81

4.60%

Myles Turner

2.4

$3.72

4.70%

Ersan Ilyasova

2.4

$3.64

4.83%

Andrew Bogut

2.3

$3.52

4.90%

Lou Williams

2.2

$3.38

4.95%

Jae Crowder

2.2

$3.36

5.18%

John Henson

2.1

$2.56

4.16%

Jamal Crawford

2.1

$2.53

4.29%

Jusuf Nurkic

2.1

$2.52

4.48%

Tiago Splitter

2.1

$2.51

4.66%

Avery Bradley

2.1

$2.50

4.87%

Timofey Mozgov

2.1

$2.50

5.12%

Jeff Green

2.0

$2.42

5.22%

Tony Parker

2.0

$2.41

5.48%

Jeremy Lin

2.0

$2.40

5.77%

Stanley Johnson

2.0

$2.40

6.12%

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

2.0

$2.39

6.51%

Dennis Schroder

2.0

$2.37

6.90%

Brandon Jennings

1.9

$2.33

7.28%

Wesley Matthews

1.9

$1.56

5.26%

Evan Turner

1.9

$1.53

5.45%

Mirza Teletovic

1.9

$1.51

5.68%

Jared Sullinger

1.8

$1.50

5.99%

Courtney Lee

1.8

$1.50

6.36%

Tony Allen

1.8

$1.48

6.70%

Mo Williams

1.7

$1.38

6.72%

Alec Burks

1.7

$1.37

7.11%

Marcus Smart

1.7

$1.36

7.63%

Arron Afflalo

1.6

$1.32

8.03%

Spencer Hawes

1.6

$1.30

8.60%

Will Barton

1.6

$1.29

9.30%

C.J. Miles

1.6

$1.06

8.47%

Kristaps Porzingis

1.6

$1.06

9.24%

Trey Burke

1.5

$1.02

9.75%

Manu Ginobili

1.4

$0.97

10.28%

Marcus Morris

1.4

$0.96

11.35%

Jahlil Okafor

1.4

$0.94

12.56%

Devin Harris

1.4

$0.93

14.21%

Paul Pierce

1.3

$0.90

16.10%

Andre Iguodala

1.3

$0.86

18.28%



Part 3

 

The same rules laid out for the 8-cat values apply for these 9-cat values -- if you haven't read my intro to Part 2, you might want to check that out now. This section deals explicitly with auction values for 9-cat leagues, assuming a $200 budget, 12 teams and 13 rounds. Without further prelude, here are the projected 9-cat values.

 

Name

9-cat WEIGHTED BY GAMES

"Realistic" Auction Value (9-cat)

% of Total $

Anthony Davis

15.4

$74.02

3.08%

Stephen Curry

15.2

$73.09

3.14%

James Harden

13.8

$66.40

2.95%

Kevin Durant

13.2

$63.26

2.89%

Chris Paul

11.6

$55.75

2.63%

Russell Westbrook

10.3

$49.65

2.40%

Damian Lillard

10.1

$48.60

2.41%

Jimmy Butler

10.1

$48.44

2.46%

Klay Thompson

9.7

$46.84

2.44%

Kawhi Leonard

9.7

$46.66

2.49%

DeMarcus Cousins

9.3

$44.52

2.44%

LeBron James

8.9

$38.07

2.14%

Blake Griffin

9.0

$38.56

2.21%

Serge Ibaka

8.9

$37.99

2.23%

John Wall

8.7

$37.32

2.24%

Rudy Gobert

8.3

$35.60

2.18%

Draymond Green

8.2

$34.90

2.19%

Marc Gasol

8.0

$34.38

2.20%

Paul Millsap

8.0

$34.39

2.25%

Al Horford

8.0

$34.07

2.28%

Nikola Vucevic

7.9

$33.76

2.32%

Nerlens Noel

7.9

$27.23

1.91%

Carmelo Anthony

7.7

$26.59

1.90%

Kyle Lowry

7.6

$26.14

1.91%

Danny Green

7.6

$26.14

1.95%

Nicolas Batum

7.5

$25.90

1.97%

LaMarcus Aldridge

7.4

$25.55

1.98%

Pau Gasol

7.4

$25.52

2.02%

Victor Oladipo

7.4

$25.41

2.05%

Chris Bosh

7.4

$25.39

2.09%

Greg Monroe

7.3

$25.09

2.11%

Kevin Love

7.1

$24.55

2.11%

Kyrie Irving

7.1

$24.52

2.15%

Brook Lopez

7.0

$24.26

2.17%

Derrick Favors

7.0

$24.17

2.21%

Eric Bledsoe

6.8

$23.48

2.20%

Gordon Hayward

6.7

$23.30

2.23%

Paul George

6.7

$23.26

2.28%

Trevor Ariza

6.7

$20.43

2.05%

Khris Middleton

6.7

$20.34

2.08%

Rudy Gay

6.7

$20.33

2.13%

Jeff Teague

6.6

$20.05

2.14%

Mike Conley

6.5

$19.95

2.18%

Karl-Anthony Towns

6.5

$19.86

2.22%

Goran Dragic

6.4

$19.65

2.24%

Tobias Harris

6.4

$19.56

2.28%

Hassan Whiteside

6.3

$19.32

2.31%

Danilo Gallinari

6.3

$19.30

2.36%

Kemba Walker

6.3

$18.77

2.35%

Jonas Valanciunas

6.3

$18.76

2.41%

DeMarre Carroll

6.3

$18.73

2.46%

Marcin Gortat

6.3

$18.70

2.52%

George Hill

6.2

$18.53

2.56%

Al Jefferson

6.2

$18.53

2.63%

Tyson Chandler

6.0

$17.98

2.62%

Nikola Mirotic

5.9

$17.63

2.64%

Kyle Korver

5.8

$17.36

2.67%

Giannis Antetokounmpo

5.8

$17.27

2.73%

Brandon Knight

5.7

$16.91

2.74%

DeAndre Jordan

5.6

$16.84

2.81%

Kenneth Faried

5.6

$13.63

2.34%

Tyreke Evans

5.6

$13.63

2.40%

Gorgui Dieng

5.6

$13.64

2.46%

Tim Duncan

5.6

$13.62

2.52%

J.R. Smith

5.6

$13.56

2.57%

Terrence Jones

5.4

$13.02

2.53%

Reggie Jackson

5.3

$12.75

2.54%

Monta Ellis

5.3

$12.75

2.61%

Robin Lopez

5.2

$12.65

2.66%

Dirk Nowitzki

5.2

$12.56

2.71%

Chandler Parsons

5.0

$12.22

2.71%

J.J. Redick

4.9

$11.95

2.73%

Thaddeus Young

4.9

$10.47

2.46%

Brandan Wright

4.9

$10.42

2.50%

Ricky Rubio

4.8

$10.22

2.52%

Isaiah Thomas

4.8

$10.20

2.58%

DeMar DeRozan

4.8

$10.16

2.64%

Ryan Anderson

4.7

$10.02

2.67%

Andrew Wiggins

4.7

$9.99

2.74%

Patrick Patterson

4.6

$9.82

2.77%

Otto Porter Jr.

4.6

$9.79

2.84%

Deron Williams

4.6

$9.74

2.90%

P.J. Tucker

4.5

$9.61

2.95%

Roy Hibbert

4.5

$9.56

3.03%

Robert Covington

4.5

$9.56

3.12%

Zach Randolph

4.5

$8.91

3.00%

C.J. McCollum

4.4

$8.74

3.04%

Harrison Barnes

4.4

$8.74

3.13%

Darren Collison

4.3

$8.62

3.19%

Ty Lawson

4.3

$8.52

3.25%

Markieff Morris

4.3

$8.55

3.37%

Andre Drummond

4.3

$8.55

3.49%

Bradley Beal

4.1

$8.16

3.46%

Jae Crowder

4.1

$8.11

3.55%

Enes Kanter

4.1

$8.15

3.70%

Al-Farouq Aminu

4.0

$8.02

3.78%

Wilson Chandler

4.0

$7.99

3.92%

Luol Deng

4.0

$6.86

3.50%

Rodney Hood

3.9

$6.71

3.55%

Jordan Clarkson

3.8

$6.60

3.62%

Jarrett Jack

3.8

$6.57

3.74%

Ersan Ilyasova

3.8

$6.56

3.88%

Meyers Leonard

3.8

$6.56

4.04%

Lou Williams

3.7

$7.35

4.71%

Aaron Gordon

3.7

$7.35

4.95%

Elfrid Payton

3.7

$6.38

4.52%

Kobe Bryant

3.6

$6.21

4.60%

Joakim Noah

3.4

$5.87

4.56%

Ben McLemore

3.4

$5.86

4.78%

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

3.4

$5.83

4.98%

Courtney Lee

3.4

$4.09

3.68%

Joe Johnson

3.4

$4.09

3.82%

Jeff Green

3.4

$4.08

3.96%

Dwyane Wade

3.4

$4.06

4.11%

Kevin Martin

3.3

$4.00

4.22%

Michael Carter-Williams

3.3

$4.00

4.40%

Avery Bradley

3.2

$3.93

4.53%

Eric Gordon

3.2

$3.92

4.73%

Timofey Mozgov

3.2

$3.88

4.91%

Marcus Morris

3.1

$3.75

5.00%

Jamal Crawford

3.1

$3.75

5.26%

Tiago Splitter

3.0

$3.67

5.43%

Andrew Bogut

3.0

$3.65

5.71%

C.J. Miles

3.0

$2.58

4.27%

Ed Davis

3.0

$2.54

4.41%

Jared Sullinger

3.0

$2.54

4.61%

Wesley Matthews

2.9

$2.50

4.76%

Myles Turner

2.9

$2.45

4.89%

Tony Allen

2.8

$2.43

5.11%

Spencer Hawes

2.8

$2.40

5.31%

John Henson

2.8

$2.38

5.57%

Devin Harris

2.7

$2.34

5.78%

Anthony Morrow

2.7

$2.31

6.07%

Marcus Smart

2.7

$2.30

6.42%

Jodie Meeks

2.7

$2.28

6.81%

Jusuf Nurkic

2.7

$1.53

4.92%

Andre Iguodala

2.6

$1.51

5.10%

Brandon Bass

2.6

$1.51

5.38%

Paul Pierce

2.6

$1.50

5.64%

Arron Afflalo

2.6

$1.48

5.89%

Matt Barnes

2.5

$1.47

6.22%

Thabo Sefolosha

2.5

$1.45

6.56%

Will Barton

2.5

$1.45

7.01%

Jeremy Lin

2.5

$1.44

7.48%

Kosta Koufos

2.5

$1.44

8.09%

Derrick Rose

2.4

$1.38

8.45%

Mo Williams

2.4

$1.38

9.23%

Stanley Johnson

2.4

$1.38

10.16%

Patrick Beverley

2.4

$1.36

11.14%

Mirza Teletovic

2.3

$1.35

12.46%

Kristaps Porzingis

2.3

$1.00

10.54%

Nick Young

2.3

$0.98

11.50%

Brandon Jennings

2.3

$0.97

12.90%

Amir Johnson

2.2

$0.96

14.61%

Corey Brewer

2.2

$0.96

17.10%

Trey Burke

2.2

$0.93

19.97%

 

If you have any questions or insights, you can find me on Twitter @Knaus_RW. Thanks for reading!

Ryan Knaus
Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.