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Dynasty Three & Out: Week 10

by Ryan McDowell

Welcome to the Dynasty Three & Out, where each week we’ll focus on three players gaining value and three others losing dynasty value based on the latest news and performances on the field.

 

Note: Any dynasty ADP or dynasty trades referenced in this article can be found at dynastyleaguefootball.com

 

Risers:

 

Aaron Jones, RB GB

 

While Packers RB Aaron Jones has been in the league for only a year and a half, it feels like a long, hard road for the young back. Jones was stuck in a three-man committee a year ago and while he flashed talent, he couldn’t break free. The situation got even direr this year when Jones was hit with a two-game suspension to begin the season. It was back to the RBBC when Jones returned to the field. That changed in Week Eight when RB Ty Montgomery fumbled the game’s final kickoff and ended any chance of a Packers’ comeback against the Rams. In that same game, Jones played a season-high (at that time) 62% of the snaps and finished as the RB17. This was a sign of things to come. Montgomery was traded just a couple days later, signaling the beginning of the Jones era as the team’s lead back. In the two games since, Jones has played 58% and 74% of the Packers snaps and that increase in playing time has resulted in the break out we all expected. In Week Ten, against the Dolphins, Jones totaled 172 yards and scored a pair of touchdowns. His value was already on the rise, as shown by his career-best November dynasty ADP of 45 overall and RB19. Since the Montgomery trade, Jones is the RB10 after entering Week Nine as the RB51. 

 

Anthony Miller, WR CHI

 

Bears rookie WR Anthony Miller has gotten a bit lost in the shuffle as some of his teammates and other rookie receivers have shined. Miller has been steadily improving and was able to take advantage of the recent absence of WR Allen Robinson. After averaging less than four targets per game in his first four contests, Miller’s looks have increased to 6.5 over the past four games. An early-season shoulder injury slowed Miller’s improvement, but he’s come back strong. Since his Week Six return, Miller leads the Bears with 450 Air Yards and he also led the team in routes run from Weeks Seven-Nine before Robinson returned. Miller’s dynasty ADP is hovering around the WR40 range, another sign that his early-career splash is going overlooked. 

 

Nick Chubb, RB CLE

 

Be honest. We all saw this coming, just maybe not this soon. When the Browns selected RB Nick Chubb in the second round of last spring’s NFL Draft, there was a mixed reaction from the dynasty community. While some loved the landing spot, others feared the competition of RBs Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde. Sure enough, Chubb barely played through the first six games of the season. While he did flash with a two-touchdown game, he was still playing only a few snaps per game. Then, the Browns shockingly traded Hyde to the Jaguars and the rest was history. In the four games since, Chubb has been the clear workhorse back, playing a season-high 79% of the snaps in Week Ten. Before the deal, the most work Chubb had seen was just 14% of the snaps. In the four games since he’s had the backfield to himself, Chubb is the RB7 in PPR leagues, including a huge Week Ten game in which he totaled 212 yards and two touchdowns, even getting involved in the passing game with three receptions. Over those four games, Chubb has weekly fantasy finishes of RB18, RB31, RB13 and RB4, pending Monday Night Football. As a highly-drafted rookie, Chubb’s dynasty ADP was already significant, but it is now climbing even higher since fantasy owners don’t have to wait a year for production. Chubb’s most recent dynasty ADP places him at RB15 and 31stoverall. 

 

 

Fallers:

 

Matthew Stafford, QB DET

 

Lions signal-caller Matthew Stafford has never been a perfect quarterback. He’s made mistakes, thrown interceptions and generally caused fans to question his standing as a franchise quarterback. Through all of that, Stafford has produced fantasy points in bunches, often due to “garbage time” production or simply high passing volume. This year, those things haven’t been present and Stafford’s once sky-high ceiling has vanished. Stafford has just one QB1 finish on the season, back in Week Two. He’s the QB19 on the season, which is considered a major disappointment to his fantasy owners, who have long considered Stafford a play and play fantasy starter. Stafford’s dynasty ADP is taking a hit as well. His overall ADP is down nearly two full rounds from last month, currently placing him at 138 overall and his QB13 ADP rank is his worst in six months. Making things even worse, the Lions dealt veteran WR Golden Tate at the trade deadline. Tate had served as Stafford’s security blanket, an “always there” option that Stafford relied on. In the two games he’s played without Tate, Stafford has finished as the QB24 and QB16, pending MNF. 

 

Isaiah Crowell, RB NYJ

 

After three games as the RB9 or better in the season’s first five games, the new location and situation for RB Isaiah Crowell seemed to be the perfect combination. In the next five contests, Crowell has not finished any higher than RB24. Despite the loss of veteran RB Bilal Powell, Crowell’s snaps and touches have been decreasing. For the past three weeks, Crowell has been out-snapped by either unproven rookie RB Trenton Cannon or just back from IR RB Elijah McGuire, who played 57% of the snaps compared to just 34% for Crowell. His seven carries last week were the second-fewest of the season. Even if Crowell was succeeding, the Jets simply aren’t competitive enough to keep games close right now, meaning Crowell is getting game-scripted out of the lineup. Surprisingly, Crowell’s dynasty ADP has maintained just outside the RB30 range over the past few months. That is sure to change. 

 

Chris Carson, RB SEA

 

It is always rough when a player loses value even when they are out of the lineup but that is what is happening with Seattle RB Chris Carson. When healthy this season, Carson has been a reliable runner but in the two games backup RB Mike Davis has drawn the most carries, he’s finished as the RB6 and RB11. In Week Ten, Davis shared the load with first-round RB Rashaad Penny. Although he has struggled all season to even get on the field, Penny shined against the Rams, rushing 12 times for 108 yards and his first career touchdown. Although Carson is reportedly expected to play in Week Eleven, it is fair to wonder how the carries and snaps will be divided between the three backs. Carson’s ADP is currently 84 overall, making him the RB31. With little draft capital on his resume, it won’t take much for fantasy players to give up on Carson as a valuable dynasty asset.