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Columns - Magazine

Dynasty Three & Out: Week 7

by Ryan McDowell
Updated On: October 22, 2018, 6:06 pm ET

Welcome to the Dynasty Three & Out, where each week we’ll focus on three players gaining value and three others losing dynasty value based on the latest news and performances on the field.

 

Note: Any dynasty ADP or dynasty trades referenced in this article can be found at dynastyleaguefootball.com

 

Risers:

 

Marlon Mack, RB IND

 

After missing four of the season’s first five games with multiple injuries, Colts RB Marlon Mack returned in Week Six, posting a solid RB24 performance and totaling 93 yards on 13 touches. He was still out-snapped by pass-catching specialist rookie RB Nyheim Hines as the game got out of hand. The situation was very different against the Bills in Week Seven and Mack dominated backfield touches. In his career-best game, Mack totaled 159 yards and two touchdowns, making him the RB2 for the week, pending Monday Night Football. The injury and the brief emergence of Hines had a major impact on Mack’s dynasty value. From pre-season to October, Mack’s dynasty ADP fell from 91 to 137, making him the RB48. Through early returns this season, Mack looks like a player who could be game script reliant but with a messy running back market, is gaining dynasty value nonetheless. 

 

Josh Gordon, WR NEP

 

For the umpteenth time in his NFL career, it looked like WR Josh Gordon was done in the league, with his dynasty value plummeting as a result. This was the beginning of training camp and it had just been reported that Gordon would not attend camp but rather focus on himself and being healthy in every meaning of the word. Eventually, Gordon did report to the Browns but they quickly realized they needed to move on. After reportedly planning to release him, the Browns dealt him to the Patriots and Gordon got the fresh start he so badly needed. Gordon’s snap rate has grown each week with the Patriots, moving from just 22% in Week Four to 95% in the team’s Week Seven win over Chicago. Following Sunday’s game, QB Tom Brady said his confidence in Gordon is growing and growing. Just like his dynasty value.

 

Nick Chubb, RB CLE

 

Browns rookie RB Nick Chubb was already a valuable dynasty asset based on his college career and draft capital. The wait for him to become a relevant weekly asset was becoming taxing though as he was playing a mop-up role to veteran RB Carlos Hyde. Last week, the Browns made a big decision, shipping Hyde to Jacksonville, leaving the starting job to Chubb. It is no surprise Chubb set new season and career-best marks in essentially every category in his first game with a full-time role. Chubb played 66% of the snaps, carrying the ball 18 times for 80 yards and a touchdown. While he has to hold off tonight’s backs, Chubb is currently the RB12 for the week. Chubb was already being valued as a top 20 dynasty back even before the trade so it is likely this new role vaults him into the top 15 at a minimum. 

 

 

Fallers:

 

Keenan Allen, WR LAC

 

Coming off a WR3 season in 2017, Chargers WR Keenan Allen was a hot commodity in all fantasy formats this past offseason. In both dynasty and seasonal leagues, he was approaching the top five wideouts drafted and usually hovered somewhere around the first and second round turn. Seven weeks into the 2018 season, he is looking like a player who was overvalued. We shouldn’t call Allen a bust though he has certainly been disappointing. With weekly fantasy finishes of WR9, WR41, WR74, WR38, WR18, WR29 and WR28, pending MNF, Allen really only has a pair of games in which he has met expectations. To be fair, Allen also began his 2017 campaign in similar fashion, posting only two WR1 games in the first half of the season before exploding for four games as the WR4 or better, so there is still hope.

 

 

Nelson Agholor, WR PHI

 

With WR Alshon Jeffery dealing with an offseason injury that lasted well into the regular season, 2017’s breakout WR Nelson Agholor had a strong chance to take the next step. Many even predicted that Agholor would become the clear top target for QB Carson Wentz. Outside of a WR8 finish in Week Two, Agholor has no weekly finishes inside the top 36 fantasy wideouts. The good news for Agholor dynasty owners is that his value, based on monthly ADP, has remained in the same range. At his peak, he was the dynasty WR 35 and he’s currently at WR43. Based on his age and the quality of the offense, I am not ready to panic with Agholor, though he’s also not a player that can be used in weekly fantasy lineups. 

 

Matt Breida, RB SF

 

The unfortunate season-ending injury to 49ers RB Jerick McKinnon was just what second-year RB Matt Breida needed. After being stuck behind RB Carlos Hyde as a rookie, Breida appeared to be doomed to another reserve role when the Niners signed McKinnon away from the Vikings. Once McKinnon went down, attention turned to Breida and veteran RB Alfred Morris. Breida has four top 24 fantasy finishes through the first seven weeks, which is obviously a good sign. What should have dynasty players concerned is Breida’s lengthy injury history. In the 49ers preseason opener, Breida suffered a shoulder injury that kept him out of action for the remainder of the exhibition season. In Week Three, Breida went down with what looked like a season-ending knee injury only to return later in the contest. The bum knee earned him a questionable tag for the next two weeks but he still suited up. In Week Five, Breida suffered an ankle injury that put him out of the game early but he was able to practice and was active for Week Six and Seven but reaggravated the ankle injury against the Rams and played just five snaps. Breida has shown some upside but simply can’t be trusted on a weekly basis until he can prove he’s fully healthy.