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Columns - Magazine

Dynasty Three & Out: Week 9

by Ryan McDowell
Updated On: November 5, 2018, 5:46 pm ET

Welcome to the Dynasty Three & Out, where each week we’ll focus on three players gaining value and three others losing dynasty value based on the latest news and performances on the field.

 

Note: Any dynasty ADP or dynasty trades referenced in this article can be found at dynastyleaguefootball.com

 

Risers:

 

George Kittle, TE SF

 

On the national stage of the Thursday night game, 49ers TE George Kittle announced himself to the football world. For those who had been paying attention, you were already well aware of Kittle, the SPARQ freak who 89thpercentile or above in all NFL Combine metrics, according to Player Profiler. Kittle already had six top 10 games at his position this season, making him the TE3 for the season. Kittle’s 22% target share ranks third among all tight ends, while he ranks second in receiving yards (692) and first in yards after the catch (499). After setting a new career-high in October’s dynasty ADP of TE7 and 81 overall, Kittle easily bested those numbers this month, now ranking as the TE4 and 49thoverall. Although ADP still places him behind Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and Rob Gronkowski, his actual value is much closer to the top of the list than it appears. The new top tier of dynasty tight ends includes the breakout second-year pro.

 

Duke Johnson, RB CLE

 

All fantasy players were hoping a new look coaching staff would bring changes to the Cleveland Browns, especially on offense, where talented players were being wasted. The best example of that is RB Duke Johnson, the pass-catching specialist who was a fantasy RB1 just last year. This season, Johnson entered Week Nine with a single-game high of just six touches and that didn’t seem impacted at all by the trade of veteran RB Carlos Hyde. It did change, though last week when HC Hue Jackson and OC Todd Haley were fired, leaving DC Gregg Williams in charge and little-known Freddie Kitchens calling the plays. Johnson touched the ball ten times, catching all nine passes thrown his way. The nine receptions set a new career-high and his 78 receiving yards led the team. Even in very limited work this season, Johnson is still the RB28 on the season, thanks in part to his Week Nine RB5 game. 

 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR GB

 

Earlier this season, the Packers were forced to play without veteran WRs Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison, who both missed time with hamstring injuries. During their absence, QB Aaron Rodgers turned to the trio of rookies the team drafted in the spring, including Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown and J’Mon Moore. Valdes-Scantling and St. Brown were especially impressive during the stint, leading to questions about what the receiver depth chart would look like once the vets returned. That happened in Week Eight and MVS more than held his own, running 22 routes and playing 60% of the team’s snaps. Last week, Allison was back on the sidelines and Valdes-Scantling stepped up again, running 37 routes, second-most on the team, and playing 81% of the snaps. MVS led the team with 103 yards on three receptions. Over the past month, the rookie has weekly fantasy finishes of WR11, WR33, WR30 and WR18. At this point, Valdes-Scantling is clearly the second-best WR value on this team, behind superstar WR Davante Adams

 

Fallers:

 

Kenny Golladay, WR DET

 

This is a bit of an odd situation. After the Lions traded WR Golden Tate last week, the simmering dynasty value of second-year WR Kenny Golladay finally exploded. Golladay started the season on a hot streak and that pushed dynasty owners to chase and overvalue him. He posted four top 20 games in the first five contests but in the past three weeks, he’s totaled seven targets, ranking WR63, WR87 and WR38 (pending Monday Night Football). As I mentioned, Golladay is being overvalued. After making a major jump up to WR30 and 39 overall in October’s dynasty ADP, this month he has climbed even more. His WR13 ADP places him ahead of WRs A.J. Green, Brandin Cooks and Jarvis Landry, among others. If he doesn’t start producing soon, that ADP will quickly slide back down.

 

Rob Gronkowski, TE NE

 

This one stings. We might be witnessing the end of an era. Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski has been the best at his position for years but injuries and a crowded and talented roster appear to be catching up to him. Gronkowski is the TE12 on the season despite missed games and only producing two top ten fantasy games this season. The good news is that Gronkowski is somehow maintaining his dynasty value, ranking as the TE3 in most recent dynasty ADP, though that does include a drop from 31 to 44 overall in just one month. Gronk’s value is sure to fall even more. Recently executed dynasty trades show that the best-case return for Gronkowski right now is a future first-round draft pick. 

 

Nelson Agholor, WR PHI

 

After a breakout season a year ago, expectations were very high for Eagles WR Nelson Agholor. With questions surrounding WR Alshon Jeffery throughout the offseason, things were set up for Agholor to take over as the team’s top receiver. That has not played out at all. Agholor has struggled, posting just one fantasy finish inside the top 36 receivers, way back in Week Two. Agholor is just the WR40 on the season. Last week, the Eagles added WR Golden Tate in a trade with the Lions and he’s set to take over the slot duties. Agholor has played 61% of his snaps in the slot, while Tate mans the slot over 70% of the time. Considering Agholor was already struggling prior to the trade, I can’t see any way this works out well for him. In October, Agholor’s dynasty ADP fell from WR35 to WR43 and now he looks set to fall outside of the top 50 wideouts.