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Columns - Magazine

Dynasty Three & Out: Week Four

by Ryan McDowell
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Welcome to the Dynasty Three & Out, where each week we’ll focus on three players gaining value and three others losing dynasty value based on the latest news and performances on the field.

 

Note: Any dynasty ADP or dynasty trades referenced in this article can be found at dynastyleaguefootball.com

 

Risers:

 

Sony Michel, RB NEP

 

Patriots rookie RB Sony Michel has already been on a wild value ride during his short time in the league. After going from a trendy sleeper pick to a first-round choice of the New England Patriots, Michel’s dynasty value exploded before we even reached training camp. That changed quickly when we learned a knee injury would cost Michel much of training camp and some regular season action. Once he returned to the field in Week Two, it was clear quickly that HC Bill Belichick wanted to get him involved. We would soon learn that Michel’s top competition for playing time and touches, RB Rex Burkhead, was lost for the season. This unfortunate news paved the way for a workhorse role for the rookie. After playing just 21% of the snaps during his debut, Michel has logged 48% and 41% of the team’s snaps the past two games. Michel is already carrying the dynasty value and now his production is catching up. In the latest dynasty ADP data, Michel is being drafted as the RB17. 

 

 

Tarik Cohen, RB CHI

 

Through the first two games, it appeared that second-year RB Tarik Cohen simply wasn’t a major part of the Bears’ weekly game plan. While he played 40%, 32% and 41% of the snaps, respectively, he was touching the ball on less than 30% of those snaps. After being productive with limited touches in Week Three (eight touches for 68 yards) Cohen’s role grew in the Bears dominating win over Tampa in Week Four. Cohen played 48% of the snaps, touched the ball on 69% of his time on the field and finished with over 30 fantasy points. After months of swearing that starting RB Jordan Howard would be used as a pass-catcher and then following through with that early in the season, things are trending towards Cohen. Howard’s targets have dropped each week this season, going from 5-4-2-1, while Cohen saw a season-high eight looks on Sunday. Cohen’s dynasty value has remained relatively unchanged, seemingly always available in the seventh or eighth round

 

John Brown, WR BAL

 

After a frustrating conclusion to his tenure in Arizona, dynasty owners seemingly gave up on WR John Brown. Brown dealt with multiple injuries as well as missed games related to his Sickle Cell trait and his value was destroyed. Brown even fell out of the top 200 per dynasty ADP, making him all but worthless. Through the first month of the season, Brown is proving his actual value to the Ravens and fantasy players who wisely hung onto him. Browns already has a pair of WR2 finishes after putting together only three in his final two seasons in Arizona. Brown has hit on multiple big plays, leading the Ravens in receiving yards and touchdowns and he is currently third in the entire league in air yards, with 662, behind only Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins

 

 

Fallers:

 

Leonard Fournette, RB JAX

 

Jaguars sophomore RB Leonard Fournette was drafted to be a bell-cow back, both for Jacksonville and fantasy players. An injured hamstring is threatening to derail his season and deflate his dynasty value. Fournette left the team’s Week One game with a hamstring injury and missed the Jags next two games. The narrative was the team was being careful with their star back and he was fully healthy for the Week Four matchup. He lasted less than a half before leaving again after reinjuring the same hamstring. HC Doug Marrone is now unsure of how much time Fournette will miss though ESPN’s Adam Schefter has reported it will be at least two more games. That means fantasy owners essentially get nothing from one of their stars through the first six weeks. That will lead to frustration and considering previous injury history, an understandable value loss. 

 

Kenyan Drake, RB MIA

 

We should’ve seen this coming. Not only did the Dolphins sign veteran RB Frank Gore this offseason they even named him a co-starter along with youngster Kenyan Drake. Drake finished the 2017 season on fire after fully taking over the job when Miami surprisingly traded starter Jay Ajayi. Drake looked like a safe RB2 in any format but that hasn’t been the case at all. Most worrisome is Drake’s usage. After just eight total carries over the past two games, Gore now has seen more carries on the season, 35 to Drake’s 33, and has outrushed him 139-107. Drake still has the clear advantage in the receiving game though the Dolphins aren’t using either back very often. Drake has ten catches for 55 yards on the season. After playing 74% of the Week One snaps, Drake was on the field for just 45% of the offensive plays against the Patriots in Week Four, another bad sign. Ironically, Drake’s dynasty ADP hit an all-time high point in September at 48 overall. That won’t last long. 

 

Rashaad Penny, RB SEA

 

The Seahawks shockingly spent their first-round pick on RB Rashaad Penny, despite all of the other numerous needs on their roster. While it seemed like a bad idea at the time, it seems like a horrible idea now. Penny was unable to beat out average talent Chris Carson for the starting job but early Sunday, it appeared Penny would finally get his shot. The Seahawks ruled Carson out for the game and Penny had been serving as the clear backup. On most other teams, this would be an indication of an increasing role. Instead, Penny played just 24% of the snaps, down from the 44% he played in the season-opener. Instead of Penny, the Seahawks relied on RB Mike Davis, who had just five touches on the season entering Week Four. Davis touched the ball 25 times for 124 total yards and two touchdowns. If the Seahawks aren’t going to use Penny in this situation, it is fair to question if they’ll use him at all this season.