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Columns - Magazine

The Gambling Solution: 10/22

by Jeff Baldwin
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

The Saints never trailed against the Falcons last Thursday night as they came away with a 31-21 victory.  Jeff nailed the side with the Saints, but lost on his under selection.  Jeremy dropped his pick with the Falcons, but hit with the over.  This Thursday night game is an NFC West clash between the Seahawks and 49ers.  Can the Seahawks bounce back after a disappointing loss at home to the Panthers?  Let's get to the picks.

 

Thursday night record

Jeremy: 1-1 (last week); 6-4-2 (season)
Jeff: 1-1 (last week); 4-6-2 (season)

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Seattle Seahawks (-6) at San Francisco 49ers

Total Points: 42

Jeff: The Seahawks gave up a late touchdown to the Panthers as they lost a tough game at home.  The 49ers are coming off a solid home win against the Ravens.  Both of these clubs sit at 2-4 in the NFC West.  The Seahawks have obviously been a disappointment up to this point in the season.  They now head to San Francisco looking to get back in the win column, and with the expectation of stringing some wins together.  If we look at the history between these two teams, it is safe to say that the Seahawks have gotten the better end of the deal to say the least. This includes five straight covers for the Seahawks over the 49ers.  I expect to see a very motivated Seahawks team on both sides of the ball on Thursday night.  This team is well aware of the fact they can't fall back even further to the Arizona Cardinals who currently lead the division.  The Seahawks will look to a finally healthy RB Marshawn Lynch to establish the ground game against a 49ers defense that can be run on.  QB Russell Wilson will pick his spots in the passing game while using his legs as well to pick up key yardage.  TE Jimmy Graham had his best game as a Seahawk last week.  He should once again be targeted heavily in this matchup.  Defensively, this group will come up with a big effort after last week uncharacteristically letting the opponent march down the field and score the winning touchdown.  This unit will be flying to the ball making it very difficult for the 49ers’ offense to get anything going.  As for the total, I like a relatively low-scoring game which seems to be the norm when these two teams meet.  The last five games in this series have gone under the posted total.

Pick: Seahawks -6
Total points: Under 42

Jeremy: The Seattle Seahawks travel to San Francisco to take on the 49ers in a matchup of two surprising 2-4 teams. San Francisco is coming off a 25-20 win over the Ravens in which QB Colin Kaepernick threw for 340 yards and two TDs. He has now passed for more than 600 yards and four TDs in his last two games without throwing an interception after combining for five picks in weeks 3 & 4. He will lead his team against the Seahawks who are coming off a last-minute 27-20 loss to the Panthers. Seattle has yet to win a game on the road this season and their only two wins have come against teams with a combined 3-9 record. QB Russell Wilson has been solid but not spectacular, completing nearly 70% of his passes along with seven TDs and only three picks. He has been hurt by an offensive line that has allowed 26 sacks this year and has forced Wilson to do most of his work outside of the pocket. In addition to issues with the offensive line, Wilson has had to carry much of the offensive load with RB Marshawn Lynch missing all or parts of three games with injury. In the games he has played in, he’s been ineffective averaging just over three yards per carry and scoring only one rushing TD. A game against the 49ers could be just what the Seahawks need to get back on track. San Francisco is giving up 27 points and more than 420 yards per game while showing an inability to get to opposing QBs with only nine sacks on the year. The 49ers will get a boost as RB Reggie Bush is expected to return from a calf injury and will provide Kaepernick with another option out of the backfield to spell Carlos Hyde. While Seattle hasn’t been as dominant defensively as in recent years, they are still loaded with talent and will present problems for the 49ers, especially in the passing game where they have given up only 235 yards per game. The total for this game has been posted at 42 but I expect it to go over that number. The 49ers have shown more consistency on offense the last two weeks and will look to take advantage of a Seahawks team that has given up 29 PPG on the road this year. As for the outcome, this will be a big game for both teams as they try and stay out of the NFC West basement. I like Seattle to take it to the 49ers’ defense and Marshawn Lynch to bust out of his season-long slumber.

Pick: Seahawks -6
Total points: Over 42

Jeff Baldwin
Jeff Baldwin has written Rotoworld's 'Gambling Solution' on Season Pass since 2011. He can be found on Twitter @JeffBaldwin4.