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Columns - Magazine

The Gambling Solution: 11/19

by Jeff Baldwin
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Jeff hit his underdog selection with the Bills as they got the outright victory over the Jets.  Jeff came up empty on his over selection as the game stayed under the posted total.  Jeremy dropped his picks with the Jets and over.  This Thursday night features an AFC South contest between the Jaguars and Titans.   Can the Jaguars make it two straight wins and three out of the last four?  Can the Titans get their third win of the season?  Let's get to the picks.


Thursday night record

Jeremy: 0-2 (last week); 9-9-2 (season)
Jeff: 1-1 (last week); 10-8-2 (season)


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Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)

Total Points: 43.5

Jeff: The Jaguars come off a road win at Baltimore as a late field goal was the difference.  They have won two out of their last three games and are in contention in the AFC South.  The Titans couldn't build off of their upset road win at New Orleans as they fell to the Panthers 27-10.  The Titans were only down four at halftime, but got outscored 13-0 in the second half.  The Titans now head to Jacksonville all banged up at the receiver position as they've lost Justin Hunter for the year, and Kendall Wright will miss this game due to an injured knee.  The Jaguars also have some players injured entering this game, but all signs are pointing to their key offensive guys (RB T.J. Yeldon & WR Allen Hurns) suiting up on Thursday night.  They will, however, be without DT Sen'Derrick Marks for the rest of the season after he suffered a torn right triceps last week versus the Ravens.  Marks was the Jaguars’ best defensive lineman.  QB Blake Bortles comes off a disappointing performance against a Ravens defense that was one of the worst in the league in defending the pass.  Look for Bortles to bounce back here as he'll look to both WR Allen Hurns and WR Allen Robinson to make plays down the field.  RB T.J. Yeldon should find room to run as he faces a Titans defense that gives up an average of 112 yards/game on the ground.  In what will be a close game throughout, the Jaguars’ passing game will be the difference as they'll get the win by a touchdown.  The Jaguars have covered three straight against the Titans.  The Titans are 2-10 ATS versus division opponents over their last 12 games.  As for the total, I think this game will stay on the low side.  I don't see a ton of points being scored here as three out of the last four games in this series have gone under.

Pick: Jaguars -3
Total points: Under 43.5

Jeremy: One week after losing 27-10 to the Carolina Panthers, the Tennessee Titans travel to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars on Thursday night. Jacksonville is coming off a 22-20 decision over the Ravens and still has an outside shot to win the awful AFC South. QB Blake Bortles is surrounded by talent at the skill positions and has the Jaguars averaging 26 PPG over the last five games. After throwing two touchdowns last week, he now has 19 on the year and 13 in the last five. The Titans have been strong against the pass all year ranking 3rd in the league in passing yards allowed with just 214. They will have their hands full containing WRs Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns who have combined to catch 14 of Bortles' 19 touchdowns. As a way of opening up the passing game, the Jaguars will likely lean on RB T.J. Yeldon who has over 100 total yards in two of his last three games. The Titans are giving up more than 112 rushing yards per game and I am expecting Yeldon to have another solid game in this one. Offensively, the Titans have been hit hard by the injury bug. WR Justin Hunter will be placed on IR after suffering an ankle injury last week and Kendall Wright is doubtful to play after missing last week's game with an injured knee. The Titans gained just over 200 yards in last week's loss and while the Jaguars aren't nearly as strong on defense as the Panthers, I still anticipate Tennessee will have a hard time moving the ball given their injuries. QB Marcus Mariota has been all or nothing throwing 8 of his 13 touchdown passes in two games. He has thrown six interceptions and only five touchdowns in the other five. This game has a posted total of 43.5 which I think is very achievable. Jacksonville will exceed their season average of 21 PPG and despite their injuries, Tennessee will score enough on offense and get a defensive or special teams score to push the total over the number. I expect Jacksonville to play hard at home in their first prime time game that has some meaning in a long time.

Pick: Jaguars -3
Total points: Over 43.5

Jeff Baldwin
Jeff Baldwin has written Rotoworld's 'Gambling Solution' on Season Pass since 2011. He can be found on Twitter @JeffBaldwin4.