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Columns - Magazine

The Gambling Solution: 11/2

by Jeremy Wardwell
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at New York Jets

Total points: 43

 

 

 

Jeremy: Last week, the Ravens crushed the Dolphins 40-0 as Miami struggled behind Matt Moore. Jeremy split his picks hitting on the over while missing on the side while Jeff missed on both his picks. This week the Bills and Jets square off in an AFC East matchup. Can LeSean McCoy lead the Bills to their third win in a row? Will Josh McCown and the Jets’ offense have success against the Bills’ stout defense?  Let's get to the picks.

Thursday night record:

 

Jeremy: 1-1 (last week); 7-9 (season)

Jeff: 0-2 (last week); 9-7 (season)

 

Winners of two straight, the Buffalo Bills travel to MetLife Stadium to take on the Jets. New York fell 25-20 to the Falcons for their third straight loss, bringing their record to 3-5. In that game, Josh McCown completed 26 passes for 257 yards and two touchdowns to raise his season completion percentage over 70%. McCown has performed well despite having a limited stable of playmakers at his disposal. Bilal Powell and Matt Forte continue to split touches for an ineffective Jets’ ground attack that will struggle against the Bills’ front seven. Buffalo is allowing 80 rushing YPG and haven't allowed a 100 yard rusher in the last three games. They held the Jets to just 38 yards on the ground in Week 1. McCown may have some success passing the ball with Robby Anderson and Jermaine Kearse as Buffalo is dealing with injuries to E.J. Gaines and Jordan Poyer in their secondary. It looks like Poyer will return for this one while the Jets could be without their third receiver as Jeremy Kerley is facing a suspension. For the Bills, I'm expecting LeSean McCoy to have a big game in this one against the Jets’ 28th ranked run defense. McCoy carried 27 times for 151 yards and a touchdown last week while mixing in six receptions. He now has three touchdowns in his last two games after failing to find the end zone in the first five weeks. In addition to being featured in the running game, McCoy will be a primary target in the short passing game as Tyrod Taylor uses him to keep the chains moving on third down. Like the Jets, Buffalo didn’t have many weapons in their passing game even with the return of Jordan Matthews from a thumb injury. After acquiring Kelvin Benjamin from the Panthers on Tuesday, the Bills now have a legitimate No. 1 receiver, and 6-foot-5 target for Tyrod Taylor to play pitch and catch with once he's up to speed. The Bills have completed just 46 passes to their top four receivers while McCoy and TE Charles Clay have 58 receptions between them. In the Week 1 meeting between these two teams, Buffalo got the win 21-12 behind a 169 yard performance from McCoy. The Bills are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, which is a trend I see continuing here as the Jets will struggle to contain McCoy and Taylor. As for the total, the number has been set at 43. Both teams are averaging right around 20 PPG and I was impressed that the Bills were able to hold the Raiders to 14 points last week. The Jets don't have as much firepower as the Raiders and if Gaines is somehow able to play, it will be even more difficult for McCown to find the end zone. Look for a relatively low scoring game with a final around 21-17. Take the Bills giving 3.5 and under 43.

 

Pick: Bills (-3.5)

Total points: Under 43


Jeff: The Jets dropped their third straight game after falling to the Falcons 25-20.  The Bills took care of business once again at home as they defeated the Raiders 34-14.  The Bills were led by RB LeSean McCoy who rushed for 151 yards on twenty-seven carries and a touchdown.  The Bills now travel to MetLife Stadium to take on the Jets looking to go to 6-2 on the season.  The Jets played the entire game last week in a torrential downpour.  The weather is projected to be a lot better this week.  This will be the second time this season these two clubs have met as the Bills got the best of the Jets in Week 1 21-12.  There wasn't many positive expectations for the Jets entering this season.  However, their current win total at three is where most folks thought they'd be at the end of the season.  Even in their losses (other than the Raiders), they have played competitively while giving the opposing team all they can handle.  I think the Jets come up with another solid effort here as they'll keep this game close.  QB Josh McCown has far exceeded expectations this season as he is currently tied for tenth in the league with 12 touchdown passes.  WR Robby Anderson is coming off another solid performance catching six balls for 104 yards and a touchdown.  I expect the Jets to play well here in front of the hometown fans.  I can see the difference in this game being decided by a late field goal by either team.  As for the total, I'm not expecting a shootout, but I think there will be enough points scored to get this game over the total.  I can see a special teams or defensive touchdown scored in this contest which will also help propel this game to go over.

 

Pick: Jets (+3.5)

Total points: Over 43

Jeremy Wardwell
Jeremy Wardwell is in his first season of writing Rotoworld's 'Gambling Solution' on Season Pass since 2011. He can be found on Twitter @jdwardwell5.