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Columns - Magazine

The Gambling Solution: 12/3

by Jeff Baldwin
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Jeremy swept the board last Thursday as he had winners on the Lions, Panthers, Bears and Over Panthers/Cowboys.  Jeff went 1-3 as he dropped his selections with the Cowboys, Packers and Under Lions/Eagles.  His only winner came on the Lions.  This Thursday night features an NFC North clash between the Packers and Lions.  Can the Lions sweep the season series?  Will the Packers bounce back after losing another home game?  Let's get to the picks.


Thursday night record

Jeremy: 4-0 (last week); 14-10-2 (season)
Jeff: 1-3 (last week); 13-11-2 (season)


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Green Bay Packers (-3) at Detroit Lions

Total Points: 47

Jeff: The Packers lost at home to the Bears on Thanksgiving Day 17-13 as they fell back into second place in the NFC North.  The Lions blew out the Eagles 45-14 on Thanksgiving Day as they extended their winning streak to three games.  The Packers now head to Detroit to face the Lions in what is a pivotal game for them.  The Packers fell to the Lions at home three weeks ago so they'll have revenge on their side.  I think the Packers put together a strong all-around performance on Thursday night.  QB Aaron Rodgers will be sharp in this matchup as he'll spread the ball around in the passing game with his primary target being WR Randall Cobb.  WR Davante Adams had a terrible game against the Bears as he dropped a number of balls thrown his way.  I think he bounces back here and has a solid game.  The Packers have to like what they've seen out of their running game the past few weeks with RB Eddie Lacy.  He's looked like the player we've seen the past few seasons.  On the other side of the ball, the Packers’ defense has responded well after the Panthers put up 37 points on them.  Since that game, this unit has only allowed 16 points/game.  The Lions remain dead last in the league running the football as they only average 74.5 yards/game on the ground.  The Packers’ main areas of focus will be to slow down WR Calvin Johnson, and put a lot of pressure on QB Matthew Stafford.  The Lions have been playing better football of late, but you have to think at some point they are due for a letdown especially with most of the public backing them in this game from a point spread perspective.  As for the total, both defenses come into this game playing well.  When these two teams last met, they combined for a total of 34 points.  I think we'll see more scoring in this contest, but not enough to go over the posted total of 47.

Pick: Packers -3
Total points: Under 47

Jeremy: In the last meeting between these two teams, the Detroit Lions knocked off the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau field for the first time in 24 years. Green Bay will have revenge on their minds in this key NFC North matchup. Detroit has now won three in a row while the Packers have dropped four out of five. The Lions had an offensive explosion on Thanksgiving scoring 45 points with QB Matthew Stafford throwing five touchdowns and Calvin Johnson hauling in three. Green Bay is giving up less than 20 points per game and will present more of a challenge than the Eagles. While the offense has shown more balance under new offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, Detroit’s defense has been even more impressive giving up just under 14 points per game in their last three. Over that time, they have sacked opposing quarterbacks 10 times and are now tied for 5th in sacks in the league. They should be able to pressure Packers QB Aaron Rodgers who has been sacked 26 times. If the Packers are going to pull out of the funk they are in, they will need more consistency from their offense that has failed to score more than 20 points in two straight games since Weeks Five and Six.  RB Eddie Lacy has shown flashes of returning to form recently after rushing for more than 100 yards in each of his last two games and will continue that success against the Lions who are giving up 112 rushing yards per game. This game will be a hard-fought divisional battle. I don’t expect Detroit to hang 45 on the Packers but I do think they will be able to move the ball on them at home. The Packers will need this game to stay within reach of the Vikings for the division lead. Look for this to be a close game with the Lions’ improved defense frustrating the Packers’ offense. Take the Lions getting three at home. As for the total, the number has been posted at 47. With the exception of the Lions last week, neither team has lit up the scoreboard recently nor do I expect them to in this game either. Seven of the last 10 meetings between these teams have gone under the total and this one will as well.

Pick: Lions +3
Total points: Under 47

Jeff Baldwin
Jeff Baldwin has written Rotoworld's 'Gambling Solution' on Season Pass since 2011. He can be found on Twitter @JeffBaldwin4.