The Gambling Solution: Week 11

Jeff Baldwin

Record: 23-16-1

Units: 1,200

Jeremy Wardwell

Record: 16-24

Units: 800

Bengals (+2.5) at Broncos - 30 units
To say the Denver Broncos have struggled recently would be an understatement. They have lost five in a row and allowed 121 points in their last three games, each of which has been against teams leading their respective divisions. A home game against the Bengals is exactly what the doctor ordered to get Denver back on track. The Bengals have lost three of their last four and as stated in this space last week, their wins this year have been underwhelming. Andy Dalton has been unimpressive and while it's not completely his fault, as he isn't surrounded by much talent besides A.J. Green, he still needs to make better decisions to minimize turnovers. Dalton has been intercepted eight times and fumbled four. The Broncos’ defense is better than they have shown recently and will apply heavy pressure to Dalton all game. Dalton has been sacked 25 times on the season and won't have much support from a running attack that will be without Jeremy Hill, leaving the heavy work to Joe Mixon who is averaging 3 YPC. The Broncos will once again start Brock Osweiler in attempt to jump-start their stagnant offense. While the Broncos have a decent matchup in the passing game with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, they will likely have better luck exploiting Cincinnati’s vulnerable run defense. C.J. Anderson, Jamaal Charles and Devontae Booker have been splitting carries, but the trio should have success here as the Bengals are allowing more than 123 rushing YPG and have given up more than 115 yards in each of the last four games. I'm looking for Denver to come out angry in this one and take it out on the Bengals at home as the defense leads the way. Take Denver giving 2.5. 
Pick: Denver Broncos -2.5

In their first game without suspended running back Ezekiel Elliott, the Dallas Cowboys fell 27-7 to the Atlanta Falcons last week. The team gained 107 yards on the ground without Elliott but 42 of those were from Dak Prescott who was running for his life much of the game. This week, they face an even more daunting task with the Eagles and their top ranked run defense coming to town. Philly has allowed a team more than 100 yards on the ground just once this season and are allowing just 66 rushing YPG overall. With Alfred Morris and the running game likely to be ineffective, Prescott will need to rely on his arm if they are to move the ball. The Eagles struggled against the pass early in the season but have improved in recent weeks and will be getting a major boost as CB Ronald Darby is expected to return from an ankle injury that has kept him out since Week 1. Darby's return along with injuries to Dallas' offensive line will allow the Eagles to pressure Prescott heavily, limiting the time Dez Bryant and the other Cowboys receivers have to get open. While the Cowboys will be without their most important offensive weapon, they will also be without arguably their most important defensive player as well. LB Sean Lee will miss this game with a hamstring injury which creates an opportunity for Jay Ajayi to have a big game. Ajayi rushed eight times for 77 yards in his Eagles debut and with an extra week to digest the playbook will be even more involved in the game plan against the Cowboys’ vulnerable defense. The Cowboys are in a tough spot in this game as they face the best team in the league missing key players with a short week ahead that could be a distraction. Dallas is 5-4 ATS and a mediocre 2-2 at home while the Eagles are an impressive 7-2 and 3-1 on the road. Look for the Eagles to get the win and cover as they continue to establish their dominance in the division.   
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3.5

Raiders vs. Patriots (-7) - 30 units
The Patriots won their fifth straight game as they went into Denver and took care of business, dominating all facets of the game 41-16.  The Raiders were on a bye last week as they look to string back to back wins together.  The Raiders will have their work cut out for them as they'll play the reigning Super Bowl champs in Mexico City.  The Patriots stayed out west after the Broncos game to avoid the extra travel for this upcoming game with the Raiders.  I expect this team to be focused and play great all-around football similar to what we saw in Denver.  I think the Raiders’ defense is in for a long day as I expect QB Tom Brady to carve up this secondary.  The Patriots’ offense will likely be without WR Chris Hogan again as he continues to rest his injured shoulder.  Brady will do what he does best as he'll distribute the ball around effectively to both his receivers and backs.  I'm expecting big games from both TE Rob Gronkowski and WR Brandin Cooks.  With a Vegas team total set at 31.5 points, it's not farfetched to see this team put up another 40-spot on an opponent.  As for the Patriots’ defense, this unit couldn't have started the season off any worse.  However, this group has played better of late as would be expected given the quality of their coaching staff.  The Raiders’ offense clearly has the weapons to keep this game interesting for a while, but I simply don't trust they can put points on the board on a consistent basis.  In the end, I think the Patriots will be simply too much for the Raiders’ defense as they'll struggle finding ways to slow down Brady and this Patriots’ offense.  I took the Patriots last week and I'm backing them yet again as they'll roll to another double-digit victory.
Pick: New England Patriots -7

Falcons (+3) at Seahawks - 30 units
Coming off a 27-7 victory over the Dallas Cowboys, the Atlanta Falcons will travel cross-country to take on the Seahawks in a Monday night encounter. Seattle won their last game 22-16 over the Cardinals and have now won five of their last six. In their victory over the Cardinals, Russell Wilson completed 22 passes for an efficient 238 yards and two touchdowns. He will at the very least match those numbers here against the Falcons’ mediocre secondary. The Falcons are tied for seventh in sacks with 26 and will be able to pressure Wilson often. However his scrambling ability will help him keep plays alive and find Jimmy Graham and Doug Baldwin downfield. On the other side of the ball the Falcons’ offense continues to be inconsistent. Matt Ryan has thrown for more than 300 yards just twice this year, which is a significant departure at from last year's gaudy performances. The running game led by Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman has also struggled at times and will likely be without Freeman as he recovers from a concussion. Without Freeman, Ryan will have to rely even more on Julio Jones who won't have to face Richard Sherman in this one after the Pro Bowl cornerback injured his Achilles and was lost for the year. Even without Sherman, the Seahawks have a talented secondary and will be getting a boost as safety Earl Thomas returns from a hamstring injury. I like Seattle to get the win and cover in this one. As mentioned above, the Falcons’ offense has yet to put it together this year and a road game at night in Seattle is not the best place to fix your problems. The Seahawks will apply heavy pressure to Ryan likely forcing a turnover or two as Seattle gets the win at home. Take Seattle giving three.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -3