The Gambling Solution: Week 12

Jeff Baldwin

Record: 29-19

Units: 1,370

Jeremy Wardwell

Record: 29-19

Units: 1,300

Cardinals (-10) at 49ers - 40 units
The Arizona Cardinals travel to Levi Stadium to take on the San Francisco 49ers in an NFC West matchup. The Cardinals remain a serious Super Bowl contender, reinforcing that position with a win last week over the Cincinnati Bengals. The 49ers however will only be spectators when the Super Bowl is played in their home stadium. They now sit at 3-7 after a 29-13 loss to the Seahawks in which they gave up over 250 yards rushing including 209 to Seattle backup running back Thomas Rawls. The Cardinals rank 10th in rushing and will be able to move the ball either in the air or on the ground as QB Carson Palmer has an arsenal of talent at his disposal. One player who may not be available is WR Michael Floyd who missed last week’s game and is questionable for this one. Whether or not he plays shouldn’t affect Arizona who come into this one leading the NFL in scoring at 33 points per game and could exceed that number against the league’s 28th ranked defense. San Francisco will start Blaine Gabbert at quarterback for the third straight game and he will likely remain the starter after the team placed Colin Kaepernick on IR with a shoulder injury. Gabbert is 1-1 in his two starts and will face a difficult challenge against the Cardinals’ 3rd ranked defense. Arizona will be able to key on shutting down 49ers receivers Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin as San Francisco has no running game to speak of and will likely be without RB Carlos Hyde for a fourth straight week. With so many factors going against the 49ers, the Cardinals should win this one in comfortable fashion. Look for Palmer to pick apart San Francisco’s secondary and the Cardinals’ defense to come up with a couple turnovers as Arizona rolls 34-21.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals -10

The Jacksonville Jaguars look to continue their climb up the AFC South standings in this Week 12 matchup against the San Diego Chargers. After their 19-13 win on Thursday night, the Jaguars have now won two in a row. Despite not putting up overly impressive stats last week, QB Blake Bortles has shown leadership and poise in the pocket for the majority of the season. His two primary targets, WR Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson will be able to take advantage of a Chargers’ secondary that is susceptible to the deep pass and has given up 16 passing TDs on the year. While the Chargers are mediocre against the pass, San Diego has now lost six straight after a 33-3 drubbing at the hands of the Chiefs. Injuries have taken their toll and stripped what was once one of the most dangerous passing attacks in the league of most of their weapons. Without wide receivers Keenan Allen and Malcolm Floyd, QB Philip Rivers has been forced to play with a mixed bag of aging veterans and unproven youngsters. Making things worse has been the inconsistent play of his offensive line who have failed to pass block consistently or open any holes in the running game to take pressure off of him. Jacksonville has a solid pass rush with 24 sacks on the year and will pressure Rivers. The Jaguars have a talented group of linebackers led by Telvin Smith who will make it difficult for the Chargers to move the ball with limited offensive resources. Jacksonville is 6-4 ATS and 4-0 in their last four games. Look for the Jaguars to hand San Diego their seventh straight loss and cover in doing so.  
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -4

Buccaneers at Colts (-3) - 20 units
The Colts came away with a huge road win in Atlanta as a late field goal was the difference.  QB Matt Hasselbeck earned his third win without any defeats this season when filling in for the injured QB Andrew Luck.  Hasselbeck will be behind center again this weekend as the Colts host the Buccaneers.  The Buccaneers blew out the Eagles 45-17 as QB Jameis Winston threw for five touchdown passes and RB Doug Martin rushed for 235 yards.  The Buccaneers are currently riding a two-game winning streak as they head to Indianapolis.  You have to like what you've seen out of this team.  They have become a very versatile team offensively as they are effective in both the run and pass.  The Buccaneers are ranked ninth in the league in yards per game as they average 370.  QB Jameis Winston has had a great rookie season leading this team to a .500 record after ten games.  Winston should be able to take advantage of a Colts’ secondary that gives up 279 yards/game through the air.  WRs Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans will be leaned on heavily here as both players should make some big plays in the passing game.  RB Doug Martin should also find room to run as the Colts rush defense is a mediocre unit giving up 113 yards/game on the ground.  As for Tampa defensively, they simply need to play solid defense as the Colts’ offense won't do anything flashy.  The Colts will run the ball with RB Frank Gore, and use short to medium range passing plays to move the chains.  Everything has been breaking the Colts’ way with Hasselbeck at the helm in his three wins, but I think that will come to an end on Sunday.  Look for the Buccaneers to score a late touchdown and get the outright win.
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3

Giants (-2.5) at Redskins - 35 units
The New York Giants and Washington Redskins square off in an NFC East game. The Giants currently lead the division with the Redskins one game behind.  New York suffered a heartbreaking last-minute loss to the Patriots in their last game in which the offense was able to move the ball and QB Eli Manning threw for 361 yards and two touchdowns. I expect Manning to put up comparable numbers in this one as Washington is giving up more than 28 points per game in their last five and were torched by Cam Newton for five passing touchdowns last week. The Redskins have been Jekyll and Hyde for much of the season, winning big when they win but losing just as big when they lose. Their average margin of defeat is 14 points while their average margin of victory is 13. QB Kirk Cousins has mirrored that inconsistency passing for 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions but has only thrown more than one touchdown in two games. In his last game against the Giants earlier this year, Cousins was able to throw for more than 315 yards but was picked off twice while ending only one drive with a touchdown in a 32-21 loss. Since that time, the Giants’ defense has improved and with the exception of a 52-49 shootout loss to the Saints is giving up 21 points per game. The return of Jason Pierre-Paul has given a significant boost to the Giants’ pass rush which will help against a Redskins’ offensive line that has allowed only 17 sacks on the year.  The Giants sit at 5-5 but could easily be 8-2had they been able to close out a few of the games they lost late. Tom Coughlin’s teams are known for playing better as the season goes on and coming off their bye and relatively healthy, I expect them to play well in this game and take control of the division. The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against Washington.
Pick: New York Giants -2.5