The Gambling Solution: Week 14

Jeff Baldwin

Record: 32-24

Units: 1,300

Jeremy Wardwell

Record: 30-26

Units: 1,130

Saints (+3.5) at Buccaneers - 30 units
In a matchup of old versus young, Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints in an NFC South tilt. Winston and the Bucs are coming off a 23-19 win over Atlanta. In that game Winston led a late fourth quarter drive and hit Mike Evans with the game winning touchdown with less than two minutes left. Winston's leadership and confidence have been improving weekly as Tampa Bay has now won three out of their last four and put themselves in wild card contention. The Saints put up a solid fight against the Panthers in New Orleans but ultimately fell 41-38 to bring their losing streak to four games. During that streak, the Saints' defense has allowed 37 points per game and ranks last in the league in points allowed on the year. Look for Tampa Bay to exploit the league's worst run defense with a heavy dose of Doug Martin who is second in the league in rushing. In their last meeting, Martin had 78 yards but that was before he really got going. I expect him to exceed that number with a 100+ yard performance. The Saints' running game took a big hit on Wednesday when RB Mark Ingram was placed on season ending IR with a shoulder injury. His loss will force the Saints to lean on RB C.J. Spiller and even heavier on Drew Brees and their passing game. New Orleans ranks second in passing yards per game with 301 yards per game while the Buccaneers are giving up just over 240. With the Saints’ running game limited, Tampa Bay who have 29 sacks on the year will look to pressure Brees early to minimize the New Orleans air attack. I like Tampa Bay to easily cover at home in this one. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight and have more to play for than New Orleans who are playing out the string and will struggle in Ingram's absence.
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)

The 7-5 Seattle Seahawks travel to Baltimore to take on the 4-8 Ravens. Seattle will look to maintain their grip on a wild card spot with a win. They have been hot recently with the offense scoring 148 points in their last four games. Over that time QB Russell Wilson has thrown 12 touchdowns and just one interception. The passing attack has been complemented by a solid running game led by Thomas Rawls. Since Marshawn Lynch was lost to injury, Rawls has averaged 153 total yards and scored four touchdowns. The Seahawks’ offense should have another big day in this one against a mediocre Baltimore defense. Who will start at quarterback for the Ravens is still officially undecided. However, it appears it will be Jimmy Clausen as Matt Schaub missed practice on Thursday dealing with chest and shoulder injuries. Clausen was claimed off of waivers from the Bears and hasn't played since a September 27 loss to the Seahawks. During that game, Clausen completed nine passes for just 63 yards. Regardless of who starts at quarterback, I expect the Seattle defense to shut down a completely undermanned Ravens’ offense. RB Buck Allen had a great game last week against Miami grabbing 12 passes for 107 yards and a touchdown while also gaining 63 yards on the ground. His task will be even more difficult this week as the Seahawks have been stingy against the run lately allowing less than 50 yards per game in their last three. With a red-hot quarterback and plenty of motivation to finish strong playing against a depleted opponent with an eye towards next year, I like the Seahawks to put up more impressive offensive numbers while covering this big spread.  
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -9.5

49ers at Browns (-1.5) - 30 units
The Browns were blown out by the Bengals 37-3 as they have now dropped seven straight games as they have managed only two wins the entire season.  The 49ers had a solid overtime win over the Bears on the road as a long touchdown pass to WR Torrey Smith was the difference.  QB Blaine Gabbert has played well since stepping in as the starting quarterback.  He'll look to guide this team to a third win since he has been under center.  The Browns have decided to go back to QB Johnny Manziel after Josh McCown suffered a season-ending injury and Austin Davis was ineffective in his start last week against the Bengals.  The Browns are hoping Manziel can provide a spark to this offense as they continue to struggle scoring points.  The 49ers have been playing better defense of late and that should continue against this Browns’ offense.  The area where the 49ers’ offense needs to capitalize is running the ball effectively against a Browns’ defense that gives up 136 yards/game on the ground which ranks close to last in the league.  RB Shaun Draughn will need to be productive running the football for the 49ers to have hopes of winning this game.  The success of the running game will open up some plays in the passing game as QB Blaine Gabbert will take some shots down the field.  WR Torrey Smith was held out of the practice on Thursday, but all signs point to him playing.  WR Anquan Boldin will also be needed to make some plays down the field to help this offense put points on the board.  I like the way the 49ers have been competing of late.  The bottom line is I don't trust the Browns giving points to any team.  Look for the 49ers to play solid defense in this matchup, and make enough plays on offense to get the outright win.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers +1.5

Redskins (+3.5) at Bears - 35 units
The Washington Redskins and Chicago Bears meet up at Soldier Field in a matchup of two 5-7 teams. Both teams are coming off frustrating losses with the Redskins losing Monday night to the Cowboys and the Bears falling in overtime to the 49ers. While Chicago is all but eliminated from the playoffs, Washington is still alive in the NFC East. The Redskins have struggled to find any consistency this year on either side of the ball. QB Kirk Cousins has been the poster boy for that inconsistency alternating strong performances with mediocre efforts. The Redskins’ running game has been little help as well. Without a clear lead back, Washington ranks 26th in the league in rushing with 94 yards per game. Chicago has played well defensively as of late. Over their last five games, they are allowing 17 points per game. Offensively, the Bears haven't been putting up huge numbers lately but do have a strong QB/WR tandem in Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery. Despite two down weeks, Cutler has had a solid season and I expect him to take advantage of the Redskins’ vulnerable defense that is allowing 365 yards per game. The Bears found some depth in their running game when Matt Forte missed some time earlier in the year with an injury. During that time, Jeremy Langford stepped up and proved himself a valuable asset in the Bears’ backfield. Forte is still the lead back but he could be more dangerous moving forward as sharing snaps with Langford will leave him fresh. This game has the potential to be a shootout as it features two teams uninterested in playing defense. Regardless of the score, I like the Bears to cover. They are 7-5 ATS this year and Washington has struggled on the road.
Pick: Chicago Bears -3.5