The Gambling Solution: Week 15

Jeff Baldwin

Record: 34-26

Units: 1,290

Jeremy Wardwell

Record: 31-29

Units: 1,080

Cardinals (-4) at Eagles - 40 units
The Arizona Cardinals travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Arizona is currently riding a seven-game winning streak after knocking off the Vikings last week to secure a playoff spot. Despite guaranteeing a postseason appearance, I expect the Cardinals to go all-out in an effort to secure a first round bye. Arizona has one of the top offenses in the league averaging 31 points per game. It looks like QB Carson Palmer will have his full complement of receivers for this one but the status of the Arizona running backs is less clear. Andre Ellington missed practice again Thursday which means rookie David Johnson could be in line for a big role again this week after gaining 123 total yards last week against Minnesota. The Eagles are allowing 127 rushing yards per game and will have a hard time containing Johnson. While Philadelphia has won two in a row over AFC East opponents, I don't see either of those wins as overly impressive especially on the offensive side of the ball. They beat a depleted New England team that repeatedly shot themselves in the foot and squeaked by an overrated Bills team at home. QB Sam Bradford is the picture of inconsistency. He has been picked off 11 times while throwing only 14 touchdowns. The Cardinals are one of the more opportunistic defenses in the league having forced 25 turnovers including 16 interceptions. It appears CB Patrick Peterson will be a full go in this one after being limited in practice earlier in the week. The Eagles' running game remains a question after DeMarco Murray was relegated to a backup role last week. He did end up with the second-most carries but how playing time and touches will be distributed this week remains to be seen. Arizona has been tough against the run allowing only 88 yards per game. I'm expecting the Cardinals to win fairly comfortably in this one. The weather looks like it won't be a factor which will allow the Arizona offense to run at full speed. The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS on the road this year and 4-0-1 ATS against Philly in their last five meetings.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals (-4)

Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks will look to continue their hot streak against Johnny Manziel and the Cleveland Browns in Seattle. Wilson has been on fire lately having thrown 16 touchdown passes in his last four games and no interceptions. Not coincidentally, the Seahawks are 4-0 over that span with an average margin of victory of 21 points including wins over two playoff contenders in Minnesota and Pittsburgh. The Seahawks running attack will be limited after Thomas Rawls suffered a broken ankle last week and was lost for the year. He will be replaced by a committee of Bryce Brown, Christine Michael and Fred Jackson. Even with a mash up of journeyman running backs, Seattle should be able to pound Cleveland's 26th ranked defense. Last week, Cleveland snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 24-10 victory over the hapless 49ers. The Browns turned the offense over to Manziel who threw for 270 yards and a touchdown at home. This week will be a harder task as taking on the Seahawks in Seattle is a totally different game. Manziel could catch a break as DB Kam Chancellor is doubtful for this game with a tailbone injury. Even without Chancellor, the Seahawks should be able to contain the Cleveland offense that lacks a big time threat out of the backfield and are led in receiving yards and touchdowns by their tight end Gary Barnidge. Seattle ranks third in the league in points allowed at 18 and has given up the second fewest total yards. I don't expect this to be a close game as Seattle pulls away early.  
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -14.5

Cardinals (-4) at Eagles - 20 units
The Eagles remain in a first place tie in the NFC East after they held on to defeat the Bills at home.  The Cardinals won a close game as well as they defeated the Vikings by three.  The Cardinals have their sights set on a first round bye in the playoffs as they head to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles.  A win in this game will put them in great position to lock up that bye.  QB Carson Palmer will look to take advantage of an Eagles’ secondary that struggles defending the pass which doesn't bode well in slowing down this potent Cardinals’ attack.  Palmer has a plethora of weapons at the receiver position which makes it so difficult from a defensive perspective to determine who to focus on.  RB David Johnson played well in his start at running back.  His ability in the running and passing game forces the defense to respect his skill set.  As for the Cardinals defensively, they are a strong unit against the run as they are in the top five in the league giving up only 87 yards/game on the ground.  Given the Eagles’ struggles this season running the football, I don't think they are going to suddenly turn things around in this matchup.  Due to their anticipated struggles in the running game, the Eagles will be forced to throw the ball a ton in this game.  The Cardinals’ secondary will need to play better this week after the Vikings were able to make some big plays in the passing game.  I think the Eagles will be playing from behind a good portion of the game as I expect the Cardinals to jump out to an early lead and not look back.  The bottom line is the Cardinals are a better overall team with more weapons at the skill positions than the Eagles.  The Eagles are 0-6 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over their last six games.  The Cardinals take care of business and come away with the win by a touchdown.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals -4

Falcons (+3.5) at Jaguars - 25 units
After starting the year 5-0, the Atlanta Falcons have now lost six in a row and sit at 6-7 and on the outside looking in for a playoff spot. The Jacksonville Jaguars come into this game with one of the best passing attacks in the league, ranking third in passing touchdowns with 30 behind only Arizona and New England. QB Blake Bortles threw for three touchdowns in a 51-16 thumping of the Colts last week. He has now thrown 13 touchdowns and only three interceptions in the last five games. I'm looking for him along with his two big receivers, Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, to put up big numbers against a Falcons’ defense that gave up 425 total yards and 38 points last week. The Jaguars will turn to backup running back Denard Robinson with T.J. Yeldon expected to miss this one with a sprained knee. For Atlanta, turnovers have been a major issue. They have turned the ball over 12 times in the last four weeks. QB Matt Ryan hasn't thrown for more than 300 yards in his last four games and the Falcons are averaging 12 points per game over that time. Since returning two weeks ago from a concussion, RB Devonta Freeman has failed to repeat the success he had at the beginning of the year. In his last two games, he has gained only 87 yards on the ground and lost a fumble. While Jacksonville can be vulnerable to the pass, they do possess a talented run-stopping unit led by Telvin Smith and Paul Posluszny who is expected to play after missing last week's game with a broken hand. His return will make it even more difficult for Atlanta to get their running game going. I'm looking for this to be a somewhat high scoring game as both teams will be able to move the ball through the air. I like Jacksonville to get the win at home. Atlanta has been awful ATS this year posting a 4-9 record ATS including losing nine straight. Jacksonville is 7-5 ATS this year including a 5-1-1 mark in their last seven.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5