The Gambling Solution: Week 3

Jeff Baldwin

Record: 2-6 (Last Week 0-4)

Units: 890

Jeremy Wardwell

Record: 4-5 (Last Week 3-1)

Units: 1,010

Vikings at Saints (-10.5) - 35 units
After a difficult week off the field, Minnesota travels to the Big Easy to take on the winless Saints. The Vikings got spanked by the Patriots last week and continue to deal with the Adrian Peterson saga. Peterson will again be out of the lineup with Matt Asiata starting in his place. This will put even more pressure on QB Matt Cassel who was brutalized by the New England defense last week getting sacked six times and throwing four INT’s. The Vikings rank dead last in the NFL in passing and thus far have seen highly touted rookie WR Cordarrelle Patterson struggle with the exception of his Week 1 rushing exploits. Patterson’s counterpart, WR Greg Jennings, has also been invisible, having been targeted only four times last week with one reception. One player that will benefit significantly from the loss of Peterson is TE Kyle Rudolph. Despite being limited in practice all week with an abdomen injury Rudolph will play and see more targets as Cassel continues to have limited time to get the ball downfield. After giving up an average of 446 yards per game in the first two weeks, facing the Vikings will be just what the Saints need to get back on track. Despite ranking near the bottom in defense, the Saints, to no one’s surprise, rank 3rd in total offense with over 430 YDS/G and 29 PTS/G. QB Drew Brees has a 90.0 passer rating and has thrown for 570 yards and 3 scores in the first two weeks. Add to that the team plays significantly better inside the Superdome where they didn’t lose a regular season game last year. The Saints will be without RB Mark Ingram who was off to a solid start. He will be replaced in the running game by Khiry Robinson but Pierre Thomas will continue to receive the majority of receptions out of the backfield. I see the Saints getting back on track big time against a lesser opponent facing major distractions.
Pick: New Orleans Saints -10.5

After an impressive comeback victory on Sunday night, Chicago looks to continue their winning ways against the New York Jets who found yet another embarrassing way to lose last week against the Packers. The Jets watched an 18 point lead evaporate as Aaron Rodgers used WR’s Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb to pick apart their secondary which struggled with CB Dee Milliner injured and Dawan Landry and Antonio Allen ineffective. They will have to find an answer quickly as the Bears come to town with one of the top WR tandems in the NFL. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery who combined for over 2,700 yards receiving last year with 19 touchdowns and have carried that success over to this year. On offense, the Jets simply don’t have enough weapons to compete. If they get into a shootout or have to play catch-up they don’t stand a chance. QB Geno Smith has been ineffective and the Jets have actually averaged more yards rushing per game (179) than passing (178). Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory will lead the way against a Bears run defense that is giving up over 5 yards per carry. The Bears will have to get maximum production from Jeffery and Marshall along with TE Martellus Bennett as they will find it difficult to move the ball on the ground against a Jets defense which ranks #1 in the league giving up a paltry 52.5 YDS/G. The last time these teams met was back in 2010 when they combined to score 72 points. I don’t see that many points being scored this time around. Look for a close game with big plays when the Bears have the ball and a deliberate pace from the Jets offense.  
Pick: Chicago Bears +2.5

Steelers at Panthers (-3.5) - 30 units
The Panthers will look to open the season with three straight wins as they host the Steelers on Sunday Night football.  The Panthers come off an impressive home win over the Lions as they pulled away in the fourth quarter.  The Steelers came up flat against the Ravens as they were defeated 26-6.  I was surprised how sharp QB Cam Newton was especially coming off the rib injury, and having limited reps with his new receiving corps.  Newton will only get better as the season progresses as he gets healthier each week.  Newton faces a defense that has been gashed on the ground so far this season.  Look for the Panthers to exploit that vulnerable Steelers rush defense as they will turn to RB Jonathan Stewart and RB DeAngelo Williams who will most likely be back on the field after he missed last week's game.  The Steelers defense will also have to contend with Newton's scrambling ability.  As for the Panthers defense, this is a stingy group that makes it difficult to move the ball on.  They should be able to keep RB Le'Veon Bell in check which will only put more pressure on QB Ben Roethlisberger and the passing game.  Look for the Panthers to come up with another solid effort at home on both sides of the ball as they'll get the victory over the Steelers.
Pick: Carolina Panthers -3.5

Texans (-2) at Giants - 30 units
The undefeated Houston Texans travel to the Meadowlands to take on the winless NY Giants. The Texans have taken advantage of a relatively weak schedule to jump out to 2-0 and will face a Giants team that continues to struggle on offense. RB Arian Foster has regained his Pro Bowl form as he has averaged 120 yards rushing per game. This has allowed QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to pick and choose his spots to get the ball to Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins who have each had strong starts to the season. Hopkins and Johnson will be the focus of the Texans offense this week as the Giants have allowed 241 yards passing per game and don’t have any shutdown talent in the secondary. The Texans will again be without Jadeveon Clowney and will rely on J.J. Watt and Brian Cushing to lead a defense that has forced seven turnovers. Eli Manning and the rest of the Giants offense have struggled with turnovers all season as they have racked up four INT’s and two additional fumbles. With the team still working out the kinks while installing a new offense, the defense needs to step up and to this point have yet to do so giving up an average of 30 points per game. The Texans will have success passing the ball against a porous secondary and will take advantage of a couple turnovers as the Giants will still look lost on offense.
Pick: Houston Texans (-2)