The Gambling Solution: Week 5

Jeff Baldwin

Record: 7-8-1

Units: 980

Jeremy Wardwell

Record: 4-11-1

Units: 820

Vikings (-6.5) at Texans - 40 units
After improving to 4-0 with a 24-10 victory over the New York Giants, the Minnesota Vikings will host the Houston Texans at US Bank Field. Houston improved to 3-1 with a 27-20 win over the Titans last week and will look to get their offense going against the stingy Vikings defense. Minnesota is allowing just over 300 total yards per game and has held opponents to a measly 12.5 PPG. The Vikings lead the league in takeaways with 11. Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler has six interceptions on the year and will likely see that number increase in this one. Minnesota's pass rush will limit Osweiler's time in the pocket which will make it difficult for him to get the ball downfield to his top targets DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. RB Lamar Miller has been solid but unspectacular throughout the first four games and I don't see him having a breakout game here. Offensively, the Vikings have handled the early season losses of Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson fairly well. QB Sam Bradford has stepped in and provided a steadying presence completing nearly 70% of his passes and throwing four touchdowns without an interception. Houston comes in with the league's top-ranked pass defense and while they have hardly faced the most talented passers in the league, I don't see Bradford lighting up the scoreboard. His top deep threat, Stefon Diggs, has been dealing with a groin injury but is expected to play. Look for Minnesota to try to establish the running game early with Jerick McKinnon to open up some chances deep for Diggs. While Houston is 3-1, the teams that they have beaten are a combined 4-8 and don't have nearly the defense that Minnesota does. The Vikings will still be riding the high of playing at their new stadium and their defense will feed off that energy. I like Minnesota to cover at home behind their defense. Take the Vikings giving 6.5.
Pick: Minnesota Vikings -6.5

The Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) and Dallas Cowboys (3-1) will square off at AT&T Stadium on Sunday.  Dallas is coming off a 24-17 victory over the San Francisco 49ers thanks to a late comeback aided by the loss of 49ers linebacker Navorro Bowman. The Cowboys racked up nearly 200 yards rushing as RB Ezekiel Elliott went for 138 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals are significantly better against the run than the 49ers and have yet to give up a rushing touchdown while allowing less than 100 yards per game on the ground. The Bengals’ run defense should get a boost this week as LB Vontaze Burfict will be a full go after being limited in his first game back from suspension last week. It appears WR Dez Bryant will miss his second straight game as he recovers from a knee injury. Without Bryant, Dak Prescott will continue to rely on TE Jason Witten while Cole Beasley and Terrance Williams see more targets. Cincinnati will be playing on 10 days’ rest after beating the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football. The Bengals will to look to continue their success in the passing game against Dallas' mediocre secondary which ranks 20th in the league and has allowed seven touchdowns through the air. Quarterback Andy Dalton and WR A.J. Green combined for 173 yards and a touchdown in the win over the Dolphins. Dalton will likely be without his favorite red-zone target in Tyler Eifert who is now dealing with a back injury in addition to his bum ankle. Without Eifert, the Bengals have struggled in the red zone, scoring a touchdown on only 30% of their trips inside the 20. Cincinnati is 4-2 against the spread in their last six games against Dallas and I like that trend to continue in this one. Look for Dalton and Green to put up big numbers as the Bengals win by a touchdown. Take Cincinnati giving 1.  
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -1

Bengals (-1) at Cowboys - 20 units
The Bengals travel to Dallas looking to making it two straight wins after taking care of the Dolphins last Thursday night 22-7.  The Cowboys were able to dig themselves out of an early 14-0 deficit versus the 49ers as they came away with a 24-17 victory.  In the Bengals’ victory over the Dolphins, WR A.J. Green went off for 10 catches for 173 yards and a touchdown.  Look for QB Andy Dalton to target Green early and often in this contest as the Cowboys will have their work cut out for them slowing him down.  RB Jeremy Hill injured his chest against the Dolphins as he has practiced this week on a limited basis.  However, all signs point toward Hill suiting up versus the Cowboys.  RB Giovani Bernard is another player the Cowboys defense will have to contest with as his receiving ability out of the backfield creates mismatches that the Bengals will look to exploit.  The Bengals defense got LB Vontaze Burfict back from suspension against the Dolphins which definitely provided a spark to this unit.  Look for Burfict's snap count to increase this week which can only be viewed as a positive as they'll have a great challenge slowing down the Cowboys rushing attack led by RB Ezekiel Elliot.  Elliot is coming off an impressive outing against the 49ers as he finished with 23 carries for 138 yards and a touchdown.  The Cowboys’ question mark for this game is status of WR Dez Bryant.  Bryant sat last week and it is possible they'll rest him again this weekend.  If he does play, it’s unclear how effective he will be as he is dealing with an injured knee.  In what will be a tight game throughout, look for the Bengals defense to come up with a big stop late in the game to secure the victory.  The Bengals are a solid 8-1 against the spread on the road over their last nine games.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -1

Chargers (+3.5) at Raiders - 25 units
The 3-1 Oakland Raiders play host to the 1-3 San Diego Chargers in Oakland on Sunday in an AFC West battle. The Raiders are coming off a 28-27 fourth quarter comeback victory over the Baltimore Ravens while San Diego suffered a crushing defeat as they blew a 13 point lead in the final five minutes against the Saints. The road doesn't get any easier for the Chargers who will be without CB Jason Verrett against the Raiders’ potent passing attack. Derek Carr has been on fire to start the year throwing for more than 1,000 yards with nine touchdowns while only being intercepted once. Carr has been well protected all season, having been sacked only twice. The Chargers don't have a highly intimidating pass rush and Carr should have plenty of time in the pocket to find Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. In their win last week, Crabtree hauled in three touchdowns and has seen his targets rise each week.  The absence of Verrett should open up more opportunities for Cooper who has been nearly invisible since his Week One performance in which he had six receptions for 137 yards. Over the last three weeks, Cooper has averaged 60 yards per game without a touchdown. The Raiders will likely be without Latavius Murray meaning DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard will split carries with Washington likely to get the lion's share. The Chargers will need to find a way to shake off last week's loss. QB Philip Rivers and the Chargers' offense will be able to move the ball against the Raiders who rank dead last against the pass and have given up 326 passing yards/game. RB Melvin Gordon leads the league in touchdowns with six and will be featured heavily in the game plan against a Raiders team that ranks 31st in the league against the run and is the only team allowing more than 5 YPC to opposing backs. The Raiders have won the last two meetings between the teams while the Chargers have won six of the last ten. This promises to be a high scoring back and forth game featuring two of the league's top passers. The Raiders are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven games with the Chargers and I see that trend continuing here. Take Oakland to cover over the beat-up Chargers.
Pick: Oakland Raiders -3.5