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The Gambling Solution: Week 6

by Jeff Baldwin
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

Both Jeremy and Jeff started with a 1,000 unit bankroll as they go head to head all season long.

 

Jeff finished last week with a 2-2 record as he had winners on the Browns and Broncos, but fell short with the Ravens and the over in the Seahawks/Redskins game.  His 2-2 record resulted in 10 units of profit.  Jeremy had a week he'd like to soon forget as he dropped all of his selections which included the Saints, Bengals, Eagles and over SD/NYJ.  Jeff now trails Jeremy by 35 units on the season.  Jeremy will look to bounce back this week and build his lead back up.  Let's get to the picks for Week 6.

 

Editor's Note: Rotoworld's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-week $400,000 Fantasy Football league for Week 6's games. It's only $10 to join and first prize is $35,000. Starts Sunday, October 12th at 1pm ET. Here's the link.

 

 

Jeff Baldwin

Record: 8-11-1 (Last Week 2-2)

Units: 915

 

Jeremy Wardwell

Record: 9-12 (Last Week 0-4)

Units: 950

 

Giants at Eagles (-2.5) - 35 units
The Giants head to Philadelphia looking for their fourth straight win after starting the season 0-2 after defeating the Falcons at home.  The Eagles held on to defeat the Rams by 6 after leading the game by as much as 27.  The Giants will be without their starting running back Rashad Jennings after he suffered a sprained MCL against the Falcons last week.  Rookie RB Andre Williams looks up for the challenge to fill Jennings’ shoes while he is out of action.  The Giants offense has looked a lot better during their winning streak compared to how they started the season.  They even got a boost from rookie WR Odell Beckham as he caught four balls for forty-four yards and a touchdown.  QB Eli Manning has this offense moving in the right direction as they face the co-division leading Eagles.  Manning and company will have plenty of opportunity to make plays in the passing and running game as the Eagles are giving up chunks of yards in both areas.  The Giants defense has done very well stopping the run which will help slow down an Eagles offense that has surprisingly struggled so far this season, but is capable of breaking out at any point.  I like the Giants in this matchup as I think they will get the outright win.  They are simply playing better football on both sides of the ball heading into this game.  
Pick: New York Giants +2.5

Cowboys (+8) at Seahawks - 30 units
The red hot Dallas Cowboys travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks in this matchup of NFC division leaders. Dallas won their fourth straight game Sunday with an overtime field goal over Houston. Seattle meanwhile is coming off a Monday Night victory over Washington in which their offense was plagued by penalties keeping the score closer than it might have been. For the Cowboys, the biggest surprise during their hot start has been their defense which was considered one of the league’s worst at the beginning of the year. Despite still being vulnerable at times, they have risen to a level of respectability holding opponents to just over 20 PTS/G which ranks them 8th in the NFL. The Cowboys also have the league’s leading rusher in DeMarco Murray who has rushed for more than 100 YDS in each game this season. He will face a stout test with the Seahawks whose defense is only giving up 62 rushing YDS/G. While the Seattle is best known for their Legion of Boom defense, the offense has been solid under QB Russell Wilson scoring 28 PTS/G and topping the league in rushing YDS/G with Marshawn Lynch leading the way. Seattle is tough to beat at home with the combination of talent on both sides of the ball and a raucous crowd that creates havoc for opposing offenses. If this were a straight up pick, I would take Seattle. However, the way the Cowboys have been playing lately with success running the ball as well as in the passing game and an improved defense make the 8 points very attractive. I like Seattle to win by a touchdown in a game that will be fun to watch. Take the Cowboys +8.
Pick: Dallas Cowboys +8

Steelers at Browns (-1.5) - 35 units
The Steelers travel to Cleveland after bouncing back with a win at Jacksonville.  The Browns fell behind the Titans 28-3 only to come back and the get the victory 29-28.  This is the second meeting this season between these two teams as the Steelers won the first game 30-27.  The Browns defense has struggled mightily this season as they are at the bottom of the NFL in both rushing and passing yards allowed.  Throw in the fact that their top corner Joe Haden may sit due to a hip injury puts even more pressure on this defense.  Even if he plays you have to wonder how effective he will be.  QB Ben Roethlisberger lit this defense up for 365 yards in their first meeting this year.  Hard not to think he doesn't throw for over 300 yards again on Sunday.  Look for Roethlisberger to key on his favorite target WR Antonio Brown.  RB Le'Veon Bell should also be in store for a great game as he should have no problem finding running room.  The Browns offensively want to run the football with RB Ben Tate who returned last week and finished with 124 yards on the ground.  The Steelers defense isn't a particularly strong unit so this game does have the making of a high scoring affair similar to their Week One contest.  In the end, I think Roethlisberger will find a way like he always does to defeat the Browns.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5
Chargers at Raiders (+7.5) - 35 units

Oakland plays host to the streaking San Diego Chargers and potential MVP candidate Philip Rivers at the Coliseum. San Diego is coming off a 31-0 thumping of the inept Jets and has scored 29 PTS/G during a four game winning streak. Oakland, coming off their bye week, is looking for its first win of the season and enters this game with a new head coach. Tony Sparano took over for Dennis Allen after the team was embarrassed by the Dolphins in London. Sparano and his crew will have their hands full in this one as Rivers comes into the game hotter than any QB in the league not named Andrew Luck. Rivers has 12 TD’s on the year to only 2 INT’s with a spectacular rating of 116.3. He will look to pick apart a Raiders pass defense that ranks fourth in the league giving up only 207 YDS/G. With the exception of a decent pass defense, the Raiders are a mess everywhere else ranking 31st against the run and at or near the bottom in all offensive categories.  The only major issue facing the San Diego Chargers entering this game is the health of their running backs. Top RB’s Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead were injured early in the year and backup Donald Brown left last week’s game with a concussion. His replacement, Branden Oliver, had a huge game rushing 19 times for 114 YDS and a TD. Meanwhile, the team has signed veteran Ronnie Brown to provide depth at the position in a sign there are concerns about Donald Brown’s return. The Chargers are clearly the more talented team in this matchup and have been hot lately while the Raiders have struggled on both sides of the ball. I do see the Raiders coming out flying early as they ride the adrenaline of playing at home with a new coach but the Chargers will pull away going into the half and run away in the second half. 7.5 points is a relatively small number and one you should grab as quickly as you can. I like the Chargers by double digits in this one with Rivers and the running game having a huge game. Take the Chargers -7.5.  
Pick: San Diego Chargers -7.5

Chargers (-7.5) at Raiders - 30 units
The Raiders come off their bye week looking for their first win of the season.  This team is in utter disarray as they fired their head coach after the Dolphins game in Week 4.  The Chargers, on the other hand, are heading in the opposite direction as they will be looking for their fifth win a row after crushing the Jets 31-0 at home.  QB Philip Rivers has this offense clicking as he continues to make big plays in the passing game to WR Keenan Allen, WR Eddie Royal and TE Antonio Gates.  The one area they have struggled in is the running game.  Injuries to RBs Ryan Mathews, Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown have opened the door for undrafted free agent Branden Oliver.  Oliver carved up the Jets to the tune of 114 yards and a touchdown.  He was also very effective in the passing game finishing with four catches for 68 yards and a touchdown.  Oliver will get the start on Sunday as he'll face a porous Raiders rush defense who are giving up 158 yards/game on the ground.  The Chargers defense is much improved as they have allowed the fewest points so far this season.  Needless to say the Raiders will struggle moving the football.  I don't see this Chargers team taking the Raiders lightly.  They are too well coached for that.  Look for another all-around solid effort from the Chargers as they'll win this game by double digits.
Pick: San Diego Chargers -7.5

Packers at Dolphins (+3.5) - 35 units
One week after crushing Minnesota, Green Bay heads to Sun Life Stadium to take on Miami looking for their third consecutive win.  The Packers appear to have found their groove averaging 40 points over their last two games. Aaron Rodgers has been brilliant over that time completing nearly 75% of his passes and throwing for seven TD’s with no INT’s. This will be a good test for the Miami secondary who rank 9th in the league in passing yards allowed but have yet to face a QB as good as Rodgers. The Green Bay running game finally got on track last week as Eddie Lacy surpassed the 100 YD mark for the first time despite sitting out most of the 4th quarter. He could struggle to repeat those numbers this week as he faces a Dolphins defense that is giving up only 107 rushing YDS/G. Miami will welcome back RB Knowshon Moreno who is expected to return after injuring his elbow in week 2. If Moreno proves to be effective, the Dolphins will have a solid 1-2 punch out of the backfield and should have a big game against the Packers who rank dead last in rushing yards allowed. If not, Lamar Miller will be leaned on heavily to take the pressure off QB Ryan Tannehill who is coming off his best game two weeks ago against the lowly Raiders. Despite being limited in practice this week with an injured foot, it looks like Tannehill’s favorite target Mike Wallace should play in this one. Miami will have no problem running the ball but won’t be able to keep up with Green Bay if this game turns into an air battle. Look for the Packers to continue their winning ways on the road as they simply have too many weapons for Miami to contain. Take the Packers -3.5.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -3.5

Steelers at Browns (Total: 47 points) - 20 units
The Steelers will take on the Browns for the second time this season after defeating them in Week One by kicking a last second field goal.  In that game, both teams combined for 57 points.  I can see a similar type of game again on Sunday.  Both offenses can expose the other team’s weaknesses.  The Browns plan on running the football as they have had a lot of success so far this season as they are ranked fourth in the NFL averaging 143 yards/game.  The Steelers have struggled stopping the run.  The Browns amassed 191 yards on the ground as a team in their first meeting with the Steelers.  The Steelers offense should be able to pick their spots in their play calling as they rank in the top ten in both passing and rushing the football.  Having explosive weapons like WR Antonio Brown and RB Le'Veon Bell gives opposing defenses fits. The Browns have gone over in every game they have played so far this season.  I expect that trend to continue as this game will go over the posted total.
Pick: Over 47
Steelers at Browns (Total: 47 points) - 20 units
Pittsburgh heads to Cleveland to take on the Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium. Both teams are coming off wins last week with the Steelers beating the Jags and the Browns topping the Titans. Pittsburgh struggled to put the ball in the end zone despite moving it effectively, only putting up 19 points against a poor Jaguars team. Cleveland, meanwhile, is coming off a historic comeback win against the Titans in which they fought back from 25 points down. QB Brian Hoyer and RB Ben Tate were the stories in that one as they led the offense to 460 total yards including 176 on the ground.  Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has been playing as well as anyone in the league with a quarterback rating over 100 and six TD’s with no INT’s over his last three games. Pittsburgh has two of the best offensive weapons in the league with Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown with both ranking in the top 3 in the league at their positions. Cleveland’s defense ranks 31st in the league in average yards against and is giving up 26 PTS/G. They could be shorthanded this week as Pro Bowl CB Joe Haden is questionable with an injured hip. Pittsburgh’s defense is nowhere near as lethal as it once was as they rank in the middle of the pack and are giving up 21 PTS/G. When these two teams met in Week 1, they combined for 57 points and the posted total for this game is 47. Weather doesn’t appear to be much of a factor with only a 30% chance of light showers. Look for Roethlisberger to have a big day, as he takes advantage of a weak Cleveland secondary, throwing for over 300 yards and a couple TD’s. Given both teams’ struggles on defense and the improved performance of the Cleveland offense especially with the return of Ben Tate, I like over 47.
Pick: Over 47

Editor's note: Both Jeremy and Jeff started with 1,000 units as they go head to head all season long.

You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffBaldwin4 and Jeremy @jdwardwell5.

Jeff Baldwin
Jeff Baldwin has written Rotoworld's 'Gambling Solution' on Season Pass since 2011. He can be found on Twitter @JeffBaldwin4.