The Gambling Solution: Week 6

Jeff Baldwin

Record: 13-7

Units: 1,220

Jeremy Wardwell

Record: 13-7

Units: 1,130

Cardinals (-3.5) at Steelers - 40 units
After a last-second road victory over the San Diego Chargers, the Steelers host the 4-1 Arizona Cardinals. Arizona is coming off a convincing 42-17 win over the Detroit Lions in which Carson Palmer threw for three TDs before being pulled in the fourth when the game was well in hand. Palmer has been solid all season throwing for more than 1,300 yards and 13 TDs while completing 65% of his passes. While the Steelers were able to contain the Chargers and Philip Rivers, I don’t see them having as much success against Arizona. The Chargers’ offensive line was decimated by injuries and they were unable to provide Rivers any time or the Chargers’ running game any holes. The Cardinals, who lead the lead in scoring with 38 PPG, come into this one relatively healthy on offense. RB Andre Ellington returned last week from a knee injury and will share carries with Chris Johnson who has had a bounce back year rushing for more than 80 yards per game. The Steelers will most likely start Michael Vick at QB again. Last week Vick did enough to keep his team from losing as he threw for 200 yards, a touchdown and a pick. More importantly for Pittsburgh is that Mike Tomlin fed the ball to his best player at crunch time and Le’Veon Bell scored the game-winning TD as time expired. Bell will again be a key factor in this one as Vick will struggle against the Cardinals’ opportunistic defense. Arizona has 11 interceptions on the year and has forced nine fumbles. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS this season and will also have more motivation to get the win for their head coach who was let go by Pittsburgh. Despite the fact that the Steelers have won four of the last five meetings between these two teams, I like Arizona to leave Pittsburgh with a win. Arizona has far more weapons offensively and on defense, they will be able to contain Vick which will allow them to focus on Bell who will certainly get his yards but won’t be enough to carry his team to a win.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals -3.5

Coming off their bye week, the 2-2 Vikings take on the 1-4 Kansas City Chiefs who have now lost four straight after last week’s loss to Chicago. The anticipated matchup of two of the best RBs in the league won’t happen as KC lost Jamaal Charles for the season last week to a torn ACL. Despite Charles’ loss, I expect both teams to feature the running game. In addition to RB Adrian Peterson, Minnesota also has a dual threat under center in Teddy Bridgewater who is coming off his best performance of the year against the Broncos. He should be in line for another big performance against the Chiefs’ weak secondary. Minnesota is dealing with injuries to receivers Mike Wallace (knee) and Charles Johnson (ribs). Wallace hasn’t practiced yet this week but is expected to play. Johnson is a bit more unknown and will most likely be a game-time decision. The Chiefs will look to Knile Davis and second year man Charcandrick West to fill the void created by Charles’ injury against a Vikings team that is giving up more than 125 rushing yards per game.  Davis filled in well for Charles last year; however, losing a player of his caliber will likely cripple an already limited offense. QB Alex Smith has recently developed a nice rapport with newcomer Jeremy Maclin with the two combining for more than 380 yards and a TD in the last three games. Without Charles, teams will be able to lock in on the two weapons the Chiefs have left in Maclin and TE Travis Kelce. Minnesota has been brutal on opposing passing games giving up just 230 yards through the air and holding opponents to 18 PPG. I like Minnesota at home in this one to cover. Coming off the bye, having Peterson and an underrated defense, I see them limiting the Chiefs to less than 14 points.  
Pick: Minnesota Vikings -3.5

Giants at Eagles (-3.5) - 30 units
The Giants needed a late rally to defeat the 49ers last Sunday night.  The Eagles blew out the Saints at home 39-17.  The Giants have put together three straight wins after dropping their first two games of the season.  Their first two losses were games in which they had leads late, but couldn't close the games out.  They now face their NFC East rival Eagles for the first time this year looking to extend their lead in the division.  The Eagles have been very inconsistent this season.  They haven't been able to put together solid performances back to back.  I'm going to side with the more consistent team of the two as I like what I have seen from the Giants during their three game winning streak.  QB Eli Manning is coming off a tremendous performance against the 49ers as he led his team late in the fourth quarter with a go ahead touchdown pass.  A concern leading into the game is the health of WRs Odell Beckham and Rueben Randle as they both left last week's game due to injury.  However, at this point, all signs point to both of them suiting up on Monday night.  The Eagles’ secondary isn't a very strong group so Manning will have chances to make some big plays down the field.  The Giants defense will need to get a consistent pass rush on QB Sam Bradford in order to disrupt the Eagles up-tempo style offense.  The Giants can't afford to allow Bradford to get into any type of rhythm with his receivers.  In a game that will be close throughout, look for the difference to be a field goal either way which makes the hook here huge.
Pick: New York Giants +3.5

Panthers (+6.5) at Seahawks - 25 units
One week after suffering a devastating overtime loss to the Bengals, the Seahawks return home to face another undefeated team, the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are coming off their bye and this game will be their first real test after four games against opponents who are a combined 5-15 on the season.  QB Cam Newton has been excellent on the year throwing and rushing for a combined nine touchdowns. He will look for TE Greg Olsen early and often. Seattle was gashed by Tyler Eifert last week and I expect Olsen to have a big day in this one given his status as Carolina’s most reliable receiver.  Seattle will get running back Marshawn Lynch back after he missed the last two games with a hamstring injury. He returns against a stout Panthers’ run defense that is ranked sixth in the league and will be getting even stronger with the return of LB Luke Kuechly who has been out with a concussion. QB Russell Wilson has had to rely on his scrambling ability this year as his offensive line has often failed to provide him time in the pocket. The result has been a team that has scored only seven offensive touchdowns on the year while getting little production from their key offseason acquisition, TE Jimmy Graham. I expect this to be a close low scoring game featuring two very similar teams. Seattle is a notoriously difficult place to play given the crowd noise and stingy Seahawks’ defense. However, the Panthers come into this game with something to prove having lost four in a row to Seattle including a 31-17 loss in last year’s playoffs.  They will also be bolstered by Kuechly’s return and the Seahawks will be missing key personnel because of injury and suspension. The line on this game has Seattle favored by 6.5 which seems a bit high to me. I like Carolina to keep the score within that number with an outright win a very real possibility.
Pick: Carolina Panthers +6.5