The Gambling Solution: Week 9

Jeff Baldwin

Record: 18-13-1

Units: 1,190

Jeremy Wardwell

Record: 14-17-1

Units: 890

Steelers (+1.5) at Ravens - 35 units
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens renew their bitter rivalry this Sunday at M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens have won the last three meetings but Pittsburgh leads the all-time series having won 24 of 44 games. Pittsburgh is coming off their bye and will be getting several key players back. QB Ben Roethlisberger is expected back after missing two games with a knee injury. He will be facing a Ravens defense dealing with injuries to several key players. The good news for the Ravens is that it looks like LB Terrell Suggs will be back after tearing his bicep and missing last week's game. Suggs' return will be a huge boost for the Ravens who have lost four in a row and allowed 24 PPG over that stretch. Even with Suggs back, I'm expecting the Steelers to have success moving the ball, especially through the air. The Ravens are tough against the run which will mean more action for Le'Veon Bell in the passing game especially as a safety valve to protect Roethlisberger. Antonio Brown also appears to be over the hip pointer he suffered in Week 7 and will be pivotal in getting the Steelers the win. Pittsburgh will also be getting an important defensive player back as Cameron Heyward returns from a hamstring injury. Baltimore's offense has been inconsistent all season. They rank near the bottom of the league in rushing yards per game and points scored while Joe Flacco has more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (5). Part of that can be attributed to injuries to several skill position players but the issue dates back to last year when Flacco struggled to string solid games together. With Heyward back, look for the Steelers to be more effective against the run and limit Terrance West's production forcing Flacco to throw more often. It is unclear if Flacco will have Steve Smith back for this game. Smith has missed the last two games with an ankle injury and has been limited in practice this week. Even if he plays, he will be less than 100%. While there are several wild cards in play in this game, the fact remains that the Steelers are healthier than the Ravens and have better talent at key positions. The games between these two rivals are always intense, highly competitive games. Look for this one to be very much the same with Pittsburgh getting the outright win. Take Steelers getting 1.5.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5

The San Francisco 49ers will look to get their second win of the season Sunday when they host the New Orleans Saints at Levi's Stadium. New Orleans is coming off a 25-20 victory over the Seattle Seahawks in which running back Tim Hightower rushed for 125 yards in relief of the fumble-prone Mark Ingram. It remains to be seen how snaps will be divided among the Saints running backs but whoever gets the ball should find success against the league's worst rush defense that is allowing 185 yards per game. The 49ers aren't nearly as bad against the pass but they have surrendered the third-most passing touchdowns. I expect New Orleans to have success running the ball which will open up opportunities downfield for Drew Brees to hit his talented group of receivers. Look for Brees to have at least three passing touchdowns in this one. While the Saints have four players with 20 receptions or more the 49ers have only one. Jeremy Kerley is the clear leader in targets and receptions for San Francisco. In the two games since Colin Kaepernick took over under center, Kerley has just four receptions for 27 yards and no touchdowns. Kaepernick has completed less than 50% of his passes and unsurprisingly has struggled. The 49ers should get a boost with running back Carlos Hyde expected to return this week after missing San Francisco's last game with a shoulder injury. I expect him to be one of the lone bright spots for the 49ers offense in this one. The Saints are vulnerable to the run and have allowed 111 yards per game to opposing running backs. Both teams are allowing more than 30 points per game on the year. The difference is New Orleans has the offense to offset some of their defensive weaknesses whereas the 49ers don't have that luxury, especially with Kaepernick under center. The 49ers are 1-6 against the spread while the Saints are 5-2 overall and 3-0 on the road. Look for New Orleans to cover on the road as they win by at least a touchdown. Take the Saints giving 3.5.  
Pick: New Orleans Saints -3.5

Broncos (-1) at Raiders - 25 units
The Raiders return home after a successful two game Florida trip as they defeated the Jaguars and Buccaneers.  QB Derek Carr went off against the hapless Buccaneers secondary as he threw for a whopping 513 yards as they won in overtime 30-24.  The Broncos made it two straight wins as they defeated the Chargers at home 27-19.  The Broncos now travel to Oakland to take on the Raiders for the first time this season.  Both clubs sit at 6-2 as they are in a first place tie in the AFC West.  The Raiders are a team that for whatever reason plays better on the road.  They currently are 5-0 on the road, but 1-2 at home.  I think their struggles at home will continue this weekend.  They take on a Broncos defense that is playing great football.  Things will be much more difficult for this Raiders offense as they face the number one defense against the pass, allowing only 184 passing yards/game.  The Broncos offensively will want to run the football and control the clock with rookie RB Devontae Booker.  There should be plenty of opportunity for Booker to pick up big yardage as the Raiders struggle in this department, giving up 125 yards/game on the ground.  The success of the running game should free up some opportunity in the passing game as QB Trevor Siemian will look to his two favorite targets in WR Demaryius Thomas and WR Emmanuel Sanders.  The Raiders’ secondary has struggled this season defending the pass as I expect this trend to continue versus the Broncos.  The Broncos have fared well against the Raiders covering three out of the last four in the series.  I think the Raiders will feel a lot of pressure in this game as expectations are high for them to come through with the victory.  The Raiders are a dismal 2-9 against the spread over their last eleven at home.  The Broncos will head to Oakland and take care of business as they'll come away with the win.
Pick: Denver Broncos -1

Jaguars (+9.5) at Chiefs - 25 units
The 2-5 Jacksonville Jaguars travel to Kansas City to take on the 5-2 Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Jacksonville is coming off a 36-22 loss to Tennessee last week while Kansas City beat Indianapolis 32-14. That victory came at a price as quarterback Alex Smith and running back Spencer Ware will both miss at least this game with injuries while starting LG Parker Ehinger is lost for the season with a torn ACL. Nick Foles will get the start under center for the Chiefs and will be making his first start since a Week 12 loss to Arizona last year. Foles filled in nicely for Smith last week and I expect him to be able to move the ball effectively against Jacksonville's limited defense. Charcandrick West will get the majority of the work for the Chiefs out of the backfield with Ware and Jamal Charles out. West has shown at times that he can be a dominant back and he has another opportunity to show that in this one. Jacksonville is allowing 125 yards per game to opposing backs and gave up 214 to the Titans last week. The Jaguars’ underachieving offense will be under new leadership this week as the team fired offensive coordinator Greg Olsen and replaced him with quarterbacks coach Nathaniel Hackett. Quarterback Blake Bortles has been awful all year as he has completed just 60% of his passes while throwing nine interceptions. Hackett will have the unenviable task of trying to turn Bortles around against the Chiefs who lead the league in interceptions. The Jaguars have virtually no running game to speak of and will likely be playing from behind most of the game. Look for Bortles to give the Chiefs’ secondary plenty of opportunity to add to their league-leading interception total. I'm expecting Kansas City to jump out to an early lead but, due to injuries to several key offensive players including receiver Jeremy Maclin who will play but won't be at 100% with a groin injury, they won't be able to pull away from the Jaguars. Kansas City wins the game outright but a late fourth-quarter touchdown gives Jacksonville the cover. Take the Jaguars getting 9.5.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5