The NASCAR Cup series heads to its third similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track race in Week 6 of the 2021 schedule and things are starting to become clearer. Of course clearer is relative; think of this week as a view through an old glass window. You can see what lies on the other side – but you might have to squint just a tetch.
In the first two 1.5-mile races this year, there have been two different winners. That is unsurprising since we make it into Week 6 with unique winners in each of the first five events, but one also has to consider only one driver swept the top five at Homestead-Miami Speedway and Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Just three others swept the top 10.
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A big part of the reason for that parity is the Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead. There was nothing fluky about the end of the event – no late race carnage or fuel mileage gambles – but the top performers were not who we’ve come to expect.
Vegas was more predictable. Last week’s Instacart 500k at Phoenix Raceway even more so. We may be returning to normalcy.
Group A: Most Expensive (>=$10,000)
Kyle Larson ($10,400)
This week there are only four drivers who top the $10k mark, which indicates that DraftKings has identified clear favorites. We have one as well. A couple of weeks back before the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas we said Larson was due a win early in the season. He immediately came through with his first victory behind the wheel of a Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet. He is the only driver with two top-fives in the first two 1.5-mile races; he may easily be the first driver to get two wins in the 2021 season.
Group B: (Between $9,800 and $8,600)
Martin Truex Jr. ($9,600)
Once the floodgates open, a gusher follows. Truex has long been one of the favorites on 1.5-mile tracks, but his struggles in last year and this raise a lot of questions about him and the overall future of Joe Gibbs Racing. Is the organization slipping? Only time will tell, but we are willing to believe that Truex will return to his ascendency on 1.5-mie tracks. That provides you with the opportunity to get an A-list driver for a B-list price.
Alex Bowman ($8,800)
Bowman has been highlighted a couple of times already this week. He was included in our Best Bets article as a possible top-five winner and again in the Dark Horse column because he is wildly undervalued across the board. That remains the case in the DraftKings game where his salary cap is only slightly above the average cost per driver ($8,333). Bowman has not shown the strength of his teammates, but every Hendrick Motorsports driver is capable of earning a top-five.
Group C: (Between $8,400 and $7,000)
Christopher Bell ($7,800)
We are starting to believe JGR is highly overvalued for most of their drivers. Part of the reason may be the leveling of the playing field. The No. 20 team is showing more promise than it has since Tony Stewart left the organization in 2009 and triggered the premature elevation of Joey Logano. That team has struggled since, but they may finally come into their own with Bell’s his parity with Truex, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Busch that makes him a much-valued mid-range pick. Bell finished seventh in the latest race on a 1.5-miler at Vegas.
Aric Almirola ($8,000)
Almirola is another undervalued driver this week. Stewart-Haas Racing is struggling more than we have seen in several years. Perhaps that is because of a switch between veteran Clint Bowyer and rookie Chase Briscoe or maybe it is simply a course correction in NASCAR. After all, only five drivers get top-fives each week and slightly more than a quarter of the field earn top-10s. But Almirola has the resources and the skill to score single digit results in a majority of races. Last year he had four of those in the middle of the season on the similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks.
Group D: (Between $6,800 and $6,000)
Michael McDowell ($6,100)
Players who don’t believe in momentum should take a look at McDowell in the Dixie Vodka 400. Coming off his dramatic Daytona 500 victory and another top-10 on the road course the following week, he was one of two drivers to score top-10s in the first three races of the season with a seventh at Homestead. He has not able to sustain it in the following race with a 17th at Vegas. Last week he slipped even further back to 28th on the short, flat track of Phoenix. Still, he has the greatest points-per-thousand ratio at this level and can be used as a way to stretch your salary cap dollar.
Chris Buescher ($6,000)
Roush Fenway Racing is capable of greater results than they have shown. Eventually this former powerhouse is going to break through and when it happens, Ryan Newman and Buescher are going to be undervalued for quite some time. At 22.3 points per thousand, Buescher is not going to earn you a lot this week, but he is consistent enough to keep from costing you anything.
Group E: (Less than or equal to $5,900)
Ryan Preece ($5,800)
The decision in Group E should almost always comes down to who has the best cost-per-thousand. This week that belongs to Preece by a wide margin over Front Row Motorsports’ Anthony Alfredo. The only reason you are going to reach this low is out of a need to stretch your dollars on an “A” or “B” driver, so make certain that the value is great enough to do so. With more than 20 points for each grand you invest, Preece is a solid value.
The top-10 points’ earners from last year were: Kevin Harvick (111.25), Martin Truex Jr. (91.75), Kyle Busch (57.75), Ryan Blaney (54), Kurt Busch (50.75), Denny Hamlin (48.5), Jimmie Johnson (46), Brad Keselowski (42.75), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (41.5), and Joey Logano (41).
Greatest Place-differential Points: Cole Custer (12), Michael McDowell (12), Christopher Bell (9), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (9), four drivers (Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick. Martin Truex Jr., and Tyler Reddick) at 8.
Last 45 Days
Driver | Avg. | Total | Avg. | This Week’s | Points | Betting | Group |
8.75 | 212.85 | 53.21 | $10,000 | 21.29 | 800 | A | |
8.00 | 205.30 | 51.33 | $10,200 | 20.13 | 700 | A | |
13.00 | 191.15 | 47.79 | $10,400 | 18.38 | 650 | A | |
17.50 | 129.95 | 32.49 | $11,000 | 11.81 | 550 | A | |
18.50 | 114.95 | 28.74 | $10,700 | 10.74 | 1000 | A | |
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12.25 | 179.00 | 44.75 | $9,600 | 18.65 | 600 | B | |
18.50 | 155.45 | 38.86 | $9,000 | 17.27 | 2000 | B | |
15.50 | 135.85 | 33.96 | $9,400 | 14.45 | 900 | B | |
14.75 | 141.60 | 35.40 | $9,800 | 14.45 | 800 | B | |
20.75 | 101.90 | 25.48 | $9,200 | 11.08 | 1600 | B | |
22.50 | 75.90 | 18.98 | $8,800 | 8.63 | 3300 | B | |
4.00 | 56.10 | 56.10 | $8,600 | 6.52 | 8000 | B | |
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15.25 | 146.75 | 36.69 | $7,800 | 18.81 | 2200 | C | |
16.00 | 134.50 | 33.63 | $8,300 | 16.20 | 2200 | C | |
18.00 | 109.50 | 27.38 | $7,000 | 15.64 | 12500 | C | |
21.00 | 98.95 | 24.74 | $7,600 | 13.02 | 10000 | C | |
18.75 | 94.45 | 23.61 | $7,300 | 12.94 | 6000 | C | |
19.75 | 82.35 | 20.59 | $7,100 | 11.60 | 12500 | C | |
22.25 | 96.25 | 24.06 | $8,400 | 11.46 | 8000 | C | |
22.50 | 65.05 | 16.26 | $8,100 | 8.03 | 10000 | C | |
25.50 | 51.20 | 12.80 | $7,400 | 6.92 | 10000 | C | |
32.00 | 2.00 | 0.50 | $8,000 | 0.25 | 5000 | C | |
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14.00 | 150.00 | 37.50 | $6,100 | 24.59 | 20000 | D | |
14.25 | 133.80 | 33.45 | $6,000 | 22.30 | 20000 | D | |
18.75 | 123.25 | 30.81 | $6,300 | 19.56 | 10000 | D | |
18.25 | 97.60 | 24.40 | $6,600 | 14.79 | 15000 | D | |
19.50 | 94.60 | 23.65 | $6,800 | 13.91 | 20000 | D | |
21.25 | 79.75 | 19.94 | $6,500 | 12.27 | 25000 | D | |
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17.00 | 119.95 | 29.99 | $5,800 | 20.68 | 40000 | E | |
22.25 | 84.25 | 21.06 | $5,500 | 15.32 | 50000 | E | |
22.33 | 57.00 | 19.00 | $4,600 | 12.39 | 150000 | E | |
27.00 | 40.00 | 10.00 | $4,800 | 8.33 | 150000 | E | |
24.50 | 41.00 | 20.50 | $5,000 | 8.20 | 150000 | E | |
24.00 | 39.00 | 19.50 | $5,100 | 7.65 | 150000 | E | |
30.67 | 29.00 | 9.67 | $4,900 | 5.92 | 150000 | E | |
26.67 | 33.00 | 11.00 | $5,600 | 5.89 | 50000 | E | |
29.00 | 27.00 | 6.75 | $4,700 | 5.74 | 150000 | E | |
30.50 | 25.60 | 6.40 | $5,300 | 4.83 | 100000 | E |
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