Consistency is king. Anyone who has read these posts with any regularity knows that is one of the first things that catches our eye and Austin Dillon was hands down one of the most consistent drivers in the field all season. He was in the front half of the pack 86.1 percent of the time with 31 results of 17th or better in 36 starts.
If you want to narrow the range, Dillon finished 11th through 17th 63.8 percent of the time.
All but four of his finishes failed to fall between sixth and 21st.
Outliers were few and far between as Dillon finished worse than 21st just three times. Two of those came in back-to-back races at Michigan International Speedway and the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course when he was involved in consecutive accidents.
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Dillon’s other two results that fell outside of his 15-position range came in the first two races of the season when he was third on the Daytona International Speedway oval and 34th on that road course.
Because this range was so tight, Dillon rarely surprised the sportsbook traders. It was rare to find plus odds for a top-10 and meaningless to try and bet on his likelihood of finish in the top five since he accomplished the feat only once.
Dillon’s value as a fantasy pick was much greater. Because players came to expect him to finish in such a narrow range, they could wait until the final pick was due and decide if his cap value or availability beat out the other drivers immediately surrounding him. Since he finished as well as or better than he started in 25 of 36 races, he added a little extra value in DraftKings contests.
Nothing has happened yet during the off-season to change the forecast of how Dillon should perform. He finished 17th in the standings and ended the season ranked 15th in our final Power Rankings. We’ve elevated him a position or two because there are even more unknowns surrounding how Austin Cindric and Aric Almirola will perform in 2022.
We are also cautiously optimistic that the Richard Childress Racing organization will have a slightly better season this year with such a great set of notes from Dillon’s team.
Finally, his rank of 14th is not necessarily an indication that we believe he is going to make the playoffs, but rather more of a representation of how his overall value should be perceived. Dillon will be fantasy relevant for the entire year, but he could also become a good bet if the traders get complacent with his line.
With more than half of his starts ending 13th or better, anytime you can find a plus line for a top-10, Dillon should be seriously considered if you have some money left over from the weekly budget. This will be especially true on unrestricted, intermediate speedways.
Four of Dillon’s five best tracks fall into the similarly-configured, 1.5- and 2-mile track range with Auto Club Speedway as his third-best course and Las Vegas Motor Speedway ranked fourth. That will give bold gamblers a chance to roll the dice if they believe Dillon is going to come out of the gates quickly.
Three Best Tracks *
Darlington (12.2 in 11 attempts)
Homestead (12.5 in 8)
Daytona (14.9 in 17)
Three Worst Tracks *
Watkins Glen (26.0 in 7)
Charlotte Roval (24.0 in 4)
Phoenix (20.8 in 16)
2021 Stats
Victories: None, best finish third (Daytona 500)
Top-fives: 1 (.028)
Top-10s: 8 (.222)
Top-15s: 27 (.750)
Top-20s: 31 (.861)
2021 Finishes at or above rank = 23 (63.9%)
Other Posts Featuring Austin Dillon
2021 Season End Power Ranking: 11-20
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15: Austin Cindric: The Deep End of the Pool
16: Bubba Wallace: Learning to Walk
17: Chris Buescher: Untapped Potential
18: Kurt Busch: New Team, Same Results
19. Aric Almirola: Righting the Ship
20: Ross Chastain: Riding the Rollercoaster
21. Harrison Burton: On the Fast Track
22. Erik Jones: Schrödinger’s Race Team
23. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Consistency is King
24. Daniel Suarez: On Track for Success
25. Chase Briscoe: 2021 ROTY
26. Justin Haley: New Team, New Dream
27. Cole Custer: Tale of Two Seasons
28. Ty Dillon: Second Chances
29. Michael McDowell: Early Momentum
30. Corey LaJoie: Look Deeper
