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Last week was relatively tame by Talladega Superspeedway standards. With narrow straights and steep banking, Dover International Speedway can be equally treacherous. Over the years, we have seen track blocking incidents take out more than half the filed. Single car accidents can be worse when the cars hit concrete walls “backed up by the state of Delaware,” in the words of the legendary Buddy Baker.
After hosting a double-header in 2020 as part of the COVID-19 restructuring, Dover was trimmed to one weekend last year. This will also be the only time the drivers get a chance to find their rhythm on a course that can be tricky to tackle. The DuraMAX Drydene 400 takes a hard-headed, thick-necked racer with a slightly ticked off attitude. It’s a perfect lead-up to next week’s race at Darlington Raceway on the “Track Too Tough to Tame.”
Last year, Hendrick Motorsports gave their drivers a sweep of the top four positions. The NextGen car will toss a monkey wrench in that plan and this is our first opportunity to go back to evaluating whether the new design is contributing to a changing of the guard or increased parity. The 2022 season has been hard to handicap, but it has been extremely interesting.
1. Kevin Harvick
Is this the time and place? Wins become more infrequent as drivers transition into their final seasons, but they don’t usually come to a screeching halt and Harvick has finished sixth or better in his last seven Dover races. (33)
2. Kyle Larson
This will be a great weekend to determine if Larson has recovered from his championship hangover. He has top-fives in six of his last nine Dover races including a win in 2019 and a runner-up to his teammate Bowman last year. (15)
3. Martin Truex Jr.
With a pair of 20-something finishes on short tracks in the past three weeks, Truex was losing momentum until he scored a top five at Talladega. (27)
4. William Byron
Byron’s last two efforts at Dover ended in fourth-place finishes. He’s become one of the best short track drivers in the field and at its heart, this is just a big short track. (55)
5. Chase Elliott
He started his career on this track with four consecutive top-fives and won in 2018. Since then, he has either crashed or finished in the top five. (85)
6. Alex Bowman
Bowman led his Hendrick teammates in a sweep of the top four at Dover last year and that was his fourth top-five in the last five races on this track. (52)
7. Ross Chastain
The waters parted for Chastain as the Geico 500 devolved into chaos at the end. This has been and all or nothing season with five top-fives, (including two wins), and five results outside the top 15. (5)
8. Kyle Busch
After inheriting the win at Bristol and drawing third out of the Talladega lottery canister, Busch has momentum on his side heading to a rhythm track. (8)
9. Joey Logano
Logano has not been living up to the potential of this team, but Dover could help turn things around. He has five top-10s there in his last six efforts, including a pair of top-fives. (60)
10. Ryan Blaney
Blaney has a pair of top-10s on this track, but none of them have come in the last six races. He hasn’t missed by much, however, with five top-15s in that span. (65)
11. Austin Dillon
The last three weeks have been a confidence booster for Dillon. If not for an accident at Bristol two weeks ago, he would very likely have a three-race streak of top-fives. (11)
12. Denny Hamlin
Take away his Richmond win and Hamlin has an average finish of 25th so far in 2022. He will snap out of his funk soon enough, but it’s hard to know when. (3)
13. Cole Custer
In three previous starts at Dover, Custer has finished 10th twice and 11th once. This is a track that fits his driving style and personality. He’s that hardheaded, thick-necked driver we were talking about in the opening. (57)
14. Daniel Suarez
Suarez got off to a perfect start at Dover with top-10s in his first four attempts and then a pair of top-15s. Last year, he was back in the top 10 and this team is one of the most exciting in the field. (18)
15. Tyler Reddick
It can be difficult to manage emotions when a young driver shows this much potential, but has only four top-10s in the first 10 races to show for his effort. Reddick seems to hold up to the stress well, though. (46)
16. Brad Keselowski
Last week was Keselowski’s best opportunity to turn the performance around for a team that has struggled through several seasons, but speeding penalties denied him. (35)
17. Erik Jones
Jones has mostly finished in the front half of the pack or a little ahead of that mark, for most of his Dover career but he scored a fourth and a sixth there in stronger equipment. (44)
18. Austin Cindric
The No. 2 team is developing some consistency with Cindric finishing 11th to 21st in his last four attempts. Dover is a unique track that could prove challenging for him. (79)
19. Chase Briscoe
Dover can be difficult to learn and after suffering crash damage last year and finishing 35th, Briscoe is going to start fresh this week. Evaluate him and use this data in the fall at Bristol. (22)
20. Justin Haley
He came close to getting his first top-10 of 2022 last week in Talladega. With four top-15s in his last six attempts, Haley should be watched this week, but only start or bet him if he impresses in qualification. (25)
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21. Aric Almirola
Almirola scored a top-10 in 2020 at Dover, but that is his only top-10 in his last 10 attempts. Concentrate your SHR attention on Harvick or Custer. (74)
22. Kurt Busch
Busch swept the top five at Dover in 2018. His results have not been that strong since, but four of his last five attempts there ended in the top 15. (38)
23. Christopher Bell
This is the kind of track on which a driver can surprise the competition when they finally stumble on the right rhythm, but Bell has always finished in the 20s and we’ll go with the numbers for now. (41)
24. Chris Buescher
A 21st at Circuit of the Americas (COTA) and crashed-induced 38th at Talladega are the only times in the past seven races that Buescher finished outside the top 20. (49)
25. Bubba Wallace
Wallace had his best opportunity to score a second top-10 of 2022 at Talladega. He was running in the lead pack before getting crashed in the dash to the checkers. (82)
26. Harrison Burton
Burton is still looking for his first top-15 and it’s unlikely to come on one of the toughest tracks to learn. Dover’s rhythm can be hard to find. (30)
27. AJ Allmendinger
Since Allmendinger has largely been able to select the races he wants to run, one suspects he will enter this weekend with a lot of hope. Unfortunately, most of his 2022 efforts have been in the 20s. (53)
28. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Stenhouse has three top-10s on this track, but they have been sporadic and hard to predict. One of them came with his current team in the Saturday running of 2020’s doubleheader. (76)
29. Todd Gilliland
Gilliland has performed better than expected on several occasions this year. He won’t be relevant for bettors, but if he fits the right niche, he could be a solid fantasy value. (63)
30. Ty Dillon
With a best of 14th in nine Dover starts, there isn’t a huge upside to Dillon this week, so he should be evaluated and only activated if he blows the doors off the competition in prelims. (68)
31. Michael McDowell
No one has been more consistent at Dover in the past few years. McDowell’s last seven attempts ended between 22nd and 26th. (87)
32. Josh Bilicki
Bilicki’s best finish of 16th came in the pack-racing event at Atlanta Motor Speedway and he was close to the top 20 the next week at COTA, but his unrestricted oval races have been closer to 30th. (43)
33. Corey LaJoie
Lajoie’s last six races at Dover have ended in a narrow range of 23rd to 30th. Consistency is important when evaluating drivers, but he will not be overly relevant for players with this stat. (71)
34. Ryan Preece
This will be Preece’s second race in the Cup Series this season after advancing to the Main in Los Angeles in the Clash. He could perform better than expected on a track that rewards the skills of modified drivers. (NA)
35. Cody Ware
Since leaving Daytona, Ware has a best finish of 26th that he earned on three separate occasions. The most recent of these came on the Bristol dirt track two weeks ago. (90)
36. BJ McLeod
With a best of 29th in seven Dover attempts, there isn’t a lot of reason to consider McLeod for any fantasy team, but this is a driver and team making the most of their opportunity. (91)
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