In 2005, NASCAR developed the Driver Rating, in part to explain ‘greatness’ to fans of stick and ball sports. It was supposed to resemble the NFL’s Quarterback rating so that fans can assess their favorite driver’s standings. A good Quarterback Rating is anything above 100; the same is true of the Driver Rating, but in a sport where every driver is their own individual quarterback, the numbers can get skewed.
A Perfect Driver Rating is 150 and typically this is achieved a few times a year. Last year, Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. earned perfect ratings once each, with Larson coming close on three other occasions.
NASCAR Statistical Services breaks the Driver Rating into three sections: primary statistics, fixed bonus points, and variable bonus points. The formula gets complicated, but basically it is impossible to earn a perfect rating without winning, although it is possible to achieve a high rating even if a driver is wrecked in the final laps.
The primary stats are many of the same we look at individually throughout the year: average running position, average speed, and fastest lap.
As an example, in the Season Finale 500k, Larson had the best Driver Rating of 132.0. He was one of six drivers above 100 for that race and all six drivers with ratings above 100 finished eighth or better. There were two drivers who scored top-10s with rating outside that mark, however. Brad Keselowski had the 12th-best rating and finished 10th; Christopher Bell had the 13th-best rating and finished ninth.
In 2021 there were 218 ratings above 100 out of 1,385 entries. We’ll take moment to look at the top 50, which appends at 124.10.
Notably only five of these ratings were accompanied by finishes worse than 10th – or 10 percent. If top-10 finishes and Driver Rating are closely correlated, one might wonder why a handicapper wouldn’t just look at the race result only. The answer is two-fold.
First: It supports the strong finish and provides a multiplier in the event that some other statistics drag the driver down.
Second: It shows when drivers were dominant.
As with many of the stats from 2021, Larson dominated. He makes 15 appearances on the top 50 chart at the bottom of this post and easily commands the top positions. Four of his 10 wins of the season came with Driver Ratings above 149.
Larson’s perfect rating came in the EchoPark 500 at Texas Motor Speedway during his three-race winning streak during the playoffs. It was a reminder to the field that he was the driver to beat. The following week at Martinsville Speedway, Larson had only the seventh-best rating and fell below the 100-mark for the 13th time in the season.
Truex makes the chart eight times and is the only driver other than Larson with a perfect rating. His perfection came in the first race at Darlington Raceway and that is also the only time during the season that he had the best Driver Rating in a race. He came close on a number of other occasions with the second-best rating in six races and third-best another four times – including the last two races of the season. Ultimately, consistency did not play into his favor.
Denny Hamlin makes seven appearances on the chart below with his best effort of 140.4 coming in the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. He also paced the field at Darlington in the Southern 500 to establish himself as a championship favorite. He lost his momentum upon leaving Las Vegas, however, and four of his last six races were ranked outside the top five.
Hamlin had the best Driver Rating three times early in the season as well. He topped the chart in the Daytona 500, and in the first races on the short, flat tracks of Martinsville and Richmond Raceway.
Kyle Busch peaked at the wrong time. He had a top-five Driver Rating 15 times during the season, but most of those were before the playoffs began. Once the money was on the line, he was a legitimate factor only three times: at Vegas, Texas, and the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course.
On the other hand, William Byron got a slow start to the playoffs and was eliminated, but he came on strong near the end – leaving his fans to wonder what might have been. Byron had the best Driver Rating on the Charlotte Roval, was second best the next two week at Texas and Kansas, and the fourth best at Martinsville.
The remaining Championship 4 driver did not fare nearly as well as his counterparts statistically. Chase Elliott earned the best Driver Rating only three times during the season at Road America, in Daytona’s second race, and at Martinsville the week before the finale. Even so, he was arguably Larson’s biggest competition in the Season Finale 500k because he earned the second-best rating before making a setup change that didn’t work in the closing laps. Swinging for the fences, he came up fifth instead – the worst among the playoff contenders.
Top-50 Driver Ratings (2021)
Rank | Driver | Rating | Finish | Race |
1. | 150.00 | 1 | EchoPark 500 | |
1. | Martin Truex, Jr. | 150.00 | 1 | Goodyear 400 |
3. | 149.70 | 1 | Ally 400 | |
4. | 149.50 | 1 | Coke 600 | |
5. | 149.20 | 1 | Save Mart 350k | |
6. | 144.80 | 2 | QuikTrip 500 | |
6. | 144.80 | 1 | Quaker State 400 | |
8. | 144.70 | 2 | Drydene 400 | |
9. | 142.60 | 1 | Pennzoil 400 | |
10. | 141.40 | 1 | Hollywood Casino 400 | |
11. | 141.20 | 1 | Night Race at Bristol | |
12. | 140.40 | 1 | South Point 400 | |
13. | 139.80 | 3 | Blue-Emu 500 | |
13. | 139.80 | 1 | Dixie Vodka 400 | |
15. | 139.00 | 1 | Jockey 250 | |
16. | 138.90 | 2 | Federated 400 | |
17. | 138.50 | 2 | Toyota Owners 400 | |
18. | 137.00 | 1 | Southern 500 | |
19. | 136.60 | 1 | Go Bowling at the Glen | |
20. | 135.80 | 2 | Southern 500 | |
21. | 134.80 | 2 | Instacart 500k | |
22. | 132.90 | 3 | FireKeepers Casino 400 | |
23. | 132.00 | 1 | Season Finale 500k | |
24. | Martin Truex, Jr. | 131.20 | 3 | Go Bowling at the Glen |
25. | 130.50 | 2 | Quaker State 400 | |
26. | 129.90 | 3 | Foxwood Resort Casino 301 | |
27. | 129.80 | 1 | Pocono Mountains 350 | |
28. | 129.60 | 16 | Xfinity 500 | |
29. | 129.20 | 5 | Season Finale 500k | |
30. | 128.80 | 1 | O’Reilly 253 | |
31. | 128.50 | 1 | Food City Dirt Race | |
32. | 127.90 | 1 | QuikTrip 500 | |
33. | 127.70 | 3 | Verizon 200 | |
34. | Martin Truex, Jr. | 127.40 | 2 | Season Finale 500k |
35. | 126.80 | 1 | Buschy McBusch 400 | |
35 | 126.80 | 19 | Buschy McBusch 400 | |
35 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 126.80 | 1 | Blue-Emu 500 |
38. | 126.40 | 2 | Pocono Organics CBD 325 | |
39. | Martin Truex, Jr. | 126.10 | 19 | Food City Dirt Race |
40. | Martin Truex, Jr. | 125.50 | 1 | Federated 400 |
41. | Martin Truex, Jr. | 125.10 | 5 | Toyota Owners 400 |
41. | 125.10 | 2 | EchoPark 500 | |
43. | 125.00 | 3 | Instacart 500k | |
44. | Martin Truex, Jr. | 124.70 | 1 | Instacart 500k |
45. | 124.60 | 3 | Texas Grand Prix | |
46. | 124.40 | 1 | Xfinity 500 | |
47. | 124.20 | 3 | Pocono Mountains 350 | |
47. | 124.20 | 3 | O’Reilly 253 | |
47. | 124.20 | 11 | Roval 400k | |
50. | 124.10 | 17 | Hollywood Casino 400 |
Practice and Qualification Returns
2021 Average Running Position
