One of the very last moves made before the lockout was a trade that didn’t get a ton of publicity -- mainly because there were a lot of other things going on -- but certainly offers the potential for fantasy implications. For those who don’t remember, the Red Sox shipped Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers in exchange for Jackie Bradley Jr. along with prospects Alex Binelas and David Hamilton.
Renfroe is the highlight of this deal from a 2022 perspective, and this appears to be an excellent situation for the former first-round pick. He received over 500 plate appearances for the first time in his young career -- 572 for posterity -- and he finished with career highs in homers (31), RBI (96) and OPS (.816).
While metrics aren’t necessarily predictive, it’s worth pointing out that Renfroe’s season doesn’t appear to have involved much luck. He was among the best in baseball in barrels -- ranking in the 88th percentile -- and also was well above-average in average exit velocity, expected slugging percentage and hard hit percentage. He also ranked in the 97th percentile in maximum exit velocity, and long story short, when Renfroe makes contact the ball explodes off the bat.
It is worth pointing out, however, that ‘when’ is a key figure in that assessment. Renfroe has struck out 321 times in his last 326 games, and his .259 average in 2021 was a career high. Simply put, expecting him to hit for a high average -- even with the hard contact -- is a fool’s errand. The power should be there, however, and with an opening in right field after Avisail Garcia’s exit to Miami, he should hit in the middle of the Milwaukee order and provide relevance in the homer and RBI categories.
The trade also sees Bradley return to Boston, where the outfielder spent his first eight seasons before signing a two-year, $24 million contract with Milwaukee last year. His one and only year with the Brewers was a disaster, as he hit just .163/.236/.261 in 124 games with six homers and seven steals over 428 plate appearances. While Bradley has never been quite this bad with the bat, it speaks to the lack of consistency that he shows in the bat, and he ranked among the very worst in baseball in the categories Renfroe excelled in while having an even worse time making contact. He can help Boston with his defense -- he ranked in the 87th percentile in outs above average -- but trusting him as a fantasy player to begin 2022 doesn’t make much sense.
In return for Renfroe -- and if we’re being honest, in part in return for taking Bradley’s $13 million contract -- the Red Sox also got a pair of intriguing prospects in Binelas and Hamilton. Drafted out of Louisville, Binelas saw his stock slide from potential top 15 pick to the third round last summer, but he mashed Low-A pitching with nine homers in 36 games, and he has the offensive profile to someday be a starting third baseman. Hamilton is the most intriguing from a fantasy perspective, as he puts up 80-grade (on the 20-80 scouting scale) run times that allowed him to steal 52 at the High-A and Double-A levels. No other tool offensively projects above-average, but he’s a solid defender, and he could end up being relevant because of his potential to swipe bags.
Not the most exciting deal by any means, but there are some potential relatively interesting ramifications for both teams in the short and long term.
Quick Hits: Twins signed INF Bryan Acuna … Major League Baseball will not require minor league players to be vaccinated in the 2022 season, per a memo obtained by ESPN’s Jeff Passan … Rangers signed RHP Nick Tropeano to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training … Vanderbilt head coach Tim Corbin said Wednesday that Kumar Rocker may pitch for an independent league team, but isn’t 100 percent sure of his plans for the upcoming season … According to Nikkan Sports, the Giants, Padres, Cubs, and Mariners are expected to be among the finalists for Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki.
