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This article outlines the best daily fantasy MLB plays of the day at every position. We take a comprehensive look to uncover these core recommendations, factoring respective salaries into the analysis.
Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.
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PITCHER
Top Play: Jacob deGrom – Mets (vs Brewers)
DeGrom breaks DFS pricing models. For instance, on DraftKings, he costs $11,500. He should cost closer to $14,000. He projects to outperform the next-best pitcher (Carlos Rodon) by about 40 percent. The Brewers are strikeout prone (25.9% K%) and CitiField has played as one of the most pitcher friendly venues this season.
Pivot: Luis Castillo – Reds (at Royals)
Castillo has a history of starting slow. Since the calendar flipped to June, he’s posted a 2.13 ERA with a strikeout per inning and over-50 percent ground ball rate in six starts. Much of his success has been built on a fluky-looking home run rate. Fortunately, the Royals offense lacks for power and Kauffman Stadium is pitcher friendly.
Also Consider: Carlos Rodon, Aaron Nola, Framber Valdez, Ian Anderson, Merrill Kelly, Shohei Ohtani, Pablo Lopez, Dane Dunning
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CATCHER
Top Play: J.T. Realmuto – Phillies (at Jake Arrieta)
Arrieta is on the shortlist for worst starting pitcher in the league. He’s running a luck neutral 5.57 ERA. The Wrigley winds are also blowing out to right field at 12 mph today. Realmuto doesn’t directly benefit from that – his power is mostly pull-side. However, he comfortably projects to lead all catchers in hits with a one-in-four chance to homer tacked on for good measure. He’s also very cheap on some platforms.
Pivot: Luis Torrens – Mariners (vs Jameson Taillon)
Torrens has blasted a torrent of home runs lately. Since mid-May, he’s batting .273/.360/.773 with seven home runs in 50 plate appearances. He’s also steadily marching up the Mariners lineup. DFS pricing models will react to his hot streak soon. Over the span, he’s set a career-high maximum exit velocity while barreling over 20 percent of batted balls. Taillon is a neutral matchup.
Also Consider: Gary Sanchez, Salvador Perez, Eric Haase, Tyler Stephenson, Will Smith, Max Stassi
FIRST BASE
Top Play: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Blue Jays (at Dean Kremer)
Kremer is a fly ball pitcher of the sort that Vladito utterly eviscerates. He carries a two-in-five chance to homer along with myriad other positive outcomes. He also leads the slate in projected hits.
Pivot: Ryan Mountcastle – Orioles (vs Steven Matz)
Across the aisle, the Orioles have two credible first basemen with Trey Mancini carrying the better projection. Mountcastle also figures to have a decent night. His aggressive Castellanos-like profile matches well against Matz.
Also Consider: Freddie Freeman, Pete Alonso, Rhys Hoskins, Anthony Rizzo, Trey Mancini, Luke Voit, Nate Lowe, Carlos Santana, Ty France, Gavin Sheets, Frank Schwindel
SECOND BASE
Top Play: Marcus Semien – Blue Jays (at Kremer)
I tend to be a tad squeamish about fly ball hitters facing fly ball pitchers. When the matchup involves a hitter friendly park like Camden Yards, I’ll overlook some of the pop-up risk. Besides, even if it doesn’t go well against Kremer, the Blue Jays stack as a whole should deliver potent network effects, leading to opportunities for Semien later in the game.
Pivot: Jean Segura – Phillies (at Arrieta)
There’s a general bias against using low-power hitters. However, Segura is a healthy value for one of the top-projected hit totals of the day (around 1.25 hits). He’s comfortably ensconced in the second spot of the lineup, offering run production opportunities aplenty.
Also Consider: Marcus Semien, Ozzie Albies, Jose Altuve, DJ LeMahieu, Whit Merrifield, Chris Taylor, Dylan Moore
THIRD BASE
Top Play: Manny Machado – Padres (vs Jefry Rodriguez)
Rodriguez is a tryhard right-hander who lacks command or stuff to stick in the Majors. Case in point, he made six appearances at Triple-A this season (five starts) over which he managed a 7.56 ERA, 10.26 K/9, and 7.02 BB/9 in just 16.2 innings. This will be a bullpen game for Washington and they do not have the personnel to make this work. We could see position players pitching by the seventh inning.
There isn’t a specific reason to target Machado. He’s a good, fairly priced hitter at a weak position.
Pivot: Jake Burger – White Sox (at Jose Berrios)
If you’re fitting deGrom with a Jays or Padres stack, you’re going to need a few min-price plays like Burger. Berrios will likely be the best pitcher Burger has ever faced, and he’s not guaranteed to start either. Even so, he has just under a one-in-five shot to homer. His hard, low-angle contact can help to deliver other types of hits too. Mostly, this is about finding a viable bargain with obvious ceiling.
Also Consider: DJ LeMahieu, Eugenio Suarez, Kris Bryant, Austin Riley, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Orlando Arcia, Starlin Castro
SHORTSTOP
Top Play: Fernando Tatis Jr. – Padres (vs Rodriguez)
This recommendation is never complicated. Tatis has contest defining ability and faces an entire staff of Triple-A caliber pitchers.
Pivot: Didi Gregorius – Phillies (at Arrieta)
Gregorius isn’t popping up on projection systems as an elite bargain, but he should be. He’s a fly ball hitter facing a very hittable ground ball pitcher at a venue that could play like a Little League park for left-handed power hitters.
Also Consider: Bo Bichette, Trevor Story, Javier Baez, Josh Rojas, Dansby Swanson, Orlando Arcia, Gleyber Torres
OUTFIELD
Top Plays: Bryce Harper – Phillies (at Arrieta)
Joey Gallo – Rangers (vs Jose Urena)
Teoscar Hernandez – Blue Jays (at Kremer)
Gallo is one of the best standalone plays this evening. He’s found his power stroke and has a tasty matchup against a pitch-to-contact ground ball guy. Urena, like Arrieta, is one of the worst starters in the league. Walks are a problem for Urena so Gallo’s plate discipline could backfire for DFSers. Harper is the lynchpin of the Phillies stack – an elite left-handed power hitter with perfect conditions. Other Phillies outfielders are better values and thus also attractive. Hernandez and George Springer are the best of a potent Jays outfield.
Pivots: Tim Locastro – Yankees (at Justus Sheffield)
DJ Stewart – Orioles (vs Matz)
This is ostensibly why the Yankees acquired Locastro – for use against left-handed pitchers. The speedy gap hitter has struggled since an early injury while mostly serving in a reserve role. Like Burger, he’s the sort of deep discount with ceiling that could allow for an interesting play elsewhere in the lineup.
The entire Orioles outfield is of interest. I’m a sucker for Stewart any time he faces a ground ball pitcher and especially when it’s a left-handed ground ball pitcher. He might not start though. Any other Orioles outfielder will serve nearly as well.
Also Consider: Andrew McCutchen, Odubel Herrera, Randal Grichuk, George Springer, Lourdes Gurriel, Ronald Acuna, Nick Castellanos, Jesse Winker, Aristides Aquino, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Joc Pederson, Tommy Pham, David Peralta, Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Austin Hays