Just over one-quarter of the season remains, and sluggers have lost their appetite for taters! The leaguewide home run pace dropped for a second consecutive week and the third time over the last four weeks. The pace now sits at 5,206. It’s not so bad as it sounds. A total of 199 home runs were hit over the last week – about 20 below the expected total. Plenty of individuals performed well. Let’s check in on them.
Weekly Leaders
Alex Bregman, 4 HR
Bryan Reynolds, 4 HR
Eugenio Suárez, 4 HR
10 Others, 3 HR
Thirteen players managed at least three home runs. On the whole, it’s a pretty plain-vanilla group. Nary a Joey Meneses or other lesser-known player. The trio who launched four big flies are old friends of the column. Suarez and Bregman in particular have a long history with hefty pop, although they both scuffled in 2021 in different ways. Suarez still managed to hit 31 home runs while playing at a replacement level while Bregman only hit 12 homers in 400 plate appearances. They’ve both rebounded this season, albeit with relatively modest potency when it comes to contributing deep flies. Reynolds’ breakout came last season, and his career-high still stands at just 24 home runs. He seems poised to shatter that mark this season. All three contributed a double-dinger game over the last week.
Of the remaining 10, Christian Walker has rated among the Top 10 power hitters for most of the season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Hunter Renfroe, and Matt Olson all appeared in the next section at some point this season. Olson has been lagging on the power front while Renfroe mostly lost his spot due to injuries. Sean Murphy, Ian Happ, and LaMonte Wade Jr. have all been highlighted in the Power Spotlight – Murphy more than once. The timing of his outburst is fortuitous. The Athletics promoted Shea Langeliers who is expected to eventually supplant Murphy in Oakland. That’s actually good news for Murphy. The assumption is he’ll be traded to a contender over the winter. Willson Contreras and Andrew McCutchen never found their ways into the Power Spotlight, but that’s only because they were too well-established by the time this column spawned from the ether. Contreras is on his way to a career-high home run total.
And that leaves one… Sir Albert Pujols. Just 10 home runs shy of 700 for his career, it would take a minor miracle for Pujols to eclipse that rare standard. He insists he will retire after the season. He’ll need another three weeks like the last plus a bonus dinger for good measure. Presently, he stands fifth on the All-Time home run list, trailing Alex Rodriguez by six home runs – a more achievable task. In 74 plate appearances since July 10, Pujols has seven home runs and a .358/.419/.731 triple-slash. That sparing usage has both restored some of his potency and rendered record-chasing a tall task.
My Top 10 Projected Home Run Leaders
Aaron Judge, 56 HR
Kyle Schwarber, 44 HR
Pete Alonso, 41 HR
Yordan Alvarez, 40 HR
Austin Riley, 39 HR
Byron Buxton, 39 HR
Paul Goldschmidt, 39 HR
Christian Walker, 38 HR
Corey Seager, 37 HR
Shohei Ohtani, 37 HR
Judge failed to homer last week, but he has a commanding 12-homer lead over Schwarber who also didn’t homer due to missing most of the week. Anthony Rizzo and Nolan Arenado fell off the list. A lack of homers over the last week was the proximal cause. I also discovered an error in Rizzo’s plate appearance projection. Seager and Ohtani took their places. There’s still time for recently returned Giancarlo Stanton and Mike Trout to reenter the race for a Top-10 finish.
Injured
New
Joey Votto, shoulder surgery, out for season
Votto’s campaign has come to an early end. The good news is he’s corrected a nagging shoulder issue. Will we see another rebound in 2023 for the most-cerebral hitter of the last two decades? Presently, his Hall of Fame case is borderline. Another season or two like 2021 could seal the deal.
Existing
Matt Carpenter, broken foot, early-October
Kole Calhoun, heel, late-August
Miguel Sano, knee, late-September
Alex Kirilloff, wrist, out for season
Kris Bryant, foot, uncertain
Giancarlo Stanton, Achilles, mid-August
Adam Duvall, wrist, out for season
Trevor Story, hand, late-August
Ryan Jeffers, thumb, early-September
Wander Franco, hamate, late-August
Mitch Garver, TJS, out for season
Jorge Soler, back, early-September
Trevor Larnach, abdominal strain, early-September
Bryce Harper, thumb, early-September
Jazz Chisholm, back, mid-September
Austin Meadows, both Achilles, uncertain
Ozzie Albies, foot, mid-September
Enrique Hernandez, hip, late-August
Anthony Rendon, wrist, out for season
Mike Zunino, shoulder, out for season
Royce Lewis, torn ACL, out for season
Stanton has begun a rehab assignment and should return to the Yankees this week. They’re in a bit of a slump and could use his thump. Story should also return in the coming days for a desperate Red Sox club. Soler is proceeding slowly. He’s worked up to batting practice. Since he’s a designated hitter, he won’t necessarily need a long rehab stint unless the club prefers evaluating younger players. Chisholm’s return date has backslid from early-to-mid-September. Calhoun could return any day now. He played three consecutive games in Triple-A.
Albies had his timeline pushed back about a month. That’s a reflection of overly bullish public expectations rather than a setback. He’s progressing steadily. Fortunately, Vaughn Grissom is performing well in his absence.
Franco appeared in one game at Triple-A on Tuesday. He’s dealing with a sore wrist.
Meadows was once again removed from his rehab assignment due to lingering pain in his Achilles. I sure hope the Tigers medical staff have checked his lower back by now. At this point, the issue is probably season-ending. Updates have been few and far between for Bryant.
Returned
Mike Trout, ribs
Mike Moustakas, calf
George Springer, elbow
Edwin Rios, hamstring
Juan Yepez, forearm
Trout was activated by surprise on Friday without a rehab stint. He immediately returned to center field too. While Trout himself no doubt relishes the instant gratification, the Halos should maybe tread a little more carefully with their face of the franchise.
Springer returned for four games last week, but he fouled a ball off his knee on Thursday. He’s missed the last two games. Rios was reinstated and optioned to Triple-A. Yepez received the same treatment. Moustakas is back too. Oh joy.
