Tonight we have a 12-game baseball slate, and as with some of the games starting earlier, the sites have left them off the main slate. After looking closely, there are some strong pitchers to target, which always makes for a fun night of daily fantasy baseball.
As always, make sure to check MLB lineups and weather before lineup lock. Now, let’s get into some of my top DFS plays for FanDuel and DraftKings.
Pitcher
Chris Sale vs. Colorado Rockies
After a slow start to the season, Sale has looked good in his last four starts, as he has 42 strikeouts in his last 26 innings. The Rockies do have some power righties in this lineup, which certainly concerns me for this matchup, but I like the upside enough to make Sale my top pitcher tonight. The projected starting lineup has a 24.7 percent strikeout rate against lefties, and this team has been a lot better at home. Meanwhile, Sale has a 3.31 xFIP with a 30.3 percent strikeout in 2019.
Caleb Smith vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Smith is super expensive on FanDuel and should be used more for tournaments over there; he could have lower ownership at that price. As good as the Rays have been this season, they’re still struggling against left-handed pitching. They’re 18th in team wOBA but they have a 30.6 percent strikeout rate, which is the highest in baseball this season. The top of the order has some power against lefties, but I’m okay with it being in this ballpark. Smith has a 34.8 percent strikeout rate with a 16.5 percent swinging strike rate, and while he’s not throwing his fastball as much this year, he’s doing an excellent job of keeping hitters off balance.
Catcher
Yasmani Grandal @ Philadelphia Phillies
I hate paying up for catcher, but I like this spot for the Brewers. Eickhoff has been good this season, but he’s still struggling with left-handed hitters. He has a 70 percent fly ball rate with a 30 percent hard-to-soft contact ratio against left-handed hitters. Eickhoff has struggled with lefties throughout his career, and Grandal has a .220 ISO with a .348 wOBA against right-handed pitching since the start of 2018. I like to target him more against fly ball pitchers, and this is a good ballpark for home runs.
First Base
Ryan O’Hearn vs. Texas Rangers
This game has a high implied total, meaning I find myself targeting a lot of bats on the Royals. Since the start of 2018, Shelby Miller has a .370 wOBA with a .241 ISO and a 46.9 percent hard-to-soft contact ratio against left-handed hitters. O’Hearn is cheap across the industry and has a ton of upside in this matchup. Since the start of 2018, he has a .304 ISO with a .400 wOBA against right-handed pitching, and he has a 93.1 average exit velocity in that span as well.
Second Base
Mike Moustakas @ Philadelphia Phillies
Like I mentioned above, I really like the Brewers lefties tonight, and I could see them being less-owned on this 12-game slate. With the amount of fly balls Eickhoff allows, I think we have some high home run upside to target here. Moustakas has a .235 ISO with a .349 wOBA against righties since the start of 2018, and he also has a 50 percent fly ball rate and a 43.8 percent hard-hit rate in that span. With the fly balls and hard contact being so high in this matchup, I like the upside for Moustakas in this spot.
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Third Base
Matt Carpenter @ Atlanta Braves
With Travis Shaw likely going to the IL, we’ve lost the cheap third baseman play for tonight’s slate. I still think Carpenter has upside at this price, and like I said on the Morning Grind today, I think we see him to start to come around at the plate. He has a .143 ISO with a .298 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, but since the start of 2018, he has a .249 ISO with a .376 wOBA. Foltynewicz has struggled since being activated off the IL. He has a 6.75 xFIP with a 13.2 percent strikeout rate and a 26.7 percent hard-to-soft contact ratio. The Cardinals are in a high-upside spot this evening.
Shortstop
Adalberto Mondesi vs. Texas Rangers
As I said above, I like the Royals in this situation tonight. With it being a high probability spot for runners to get on base, I’ll try to target the speed/power combo on this team. Mondesi has some power, but his speed is what stands out to me in this matchup. He’s tied for the American League lead in stolen bases this season, and he has 21 extra base hits. With Miller’s struggles, I’m certainly going to be running at least one Royals stack in this spot.
Outfield
J.D. Martinez vs. Colorado Rockies
After a strong 2018, Kyle Freeland has really struggled this season. He has a 4.95 xFIP with a 18.7 percent strikeout rate, and he has a .319 wOBA with a .227 ISO and a 39.4 percent hard-hit rate against right-handed hitters this season. Martinez is always someone I like against left-handed pitchers. He has a .317 ISO with a .452 wOBA and a 43 percent hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching since the start of 2018. With Freeland’s struggles this season, the Red Sox are a top target for me tonight, and it starts with the massive upside provided by J.D. Martinez.
Khris Davis @ Seattle Mariners
After dealing with a hip injury for the last week, Khris Davis hit two home runs in last night’s game. He draws another great matchup tonight, and his price is still down across the industry. Mike Leake has a .351 wOBA with a .214 ISO against right-handed hitters since the start of 2018. He uses his sinker to create ground balls, and it just hasn’t been as effective over the last couple of seasons. Davis hits sinkers well and has a lot of upside in this matchup tonight.
