All of my favorite picks for the year in one column. That’s what you’re here for, right?
These are the players that make up about 80% of my rosters in mixed leagues. Players are listed along with their current ranking from the EDGE+ Baseball Draft Guide, their ADP in NFBC leagues over the last month and their ADP in Yahoo Leagues.
Catchers
Alejandro Kirk - 169th in Top 500 - 238th in NFBC - 92% undrafted in Yahoo
Daulton Varsho - 136th in Top 500 - 86th in NFBC - 166th in Yahoo
Will Smith - 67th in Top 500 - 49th in NFBC - 80th in Yahoo
Mitch Garver - 194th in Top 500 - 162nd in NFBC - 211th in Yahoo
My rankings are for one-catcher leagues (even though that makes me sad) and NFBC uses a two-catcher format, so the ADPs don’t match up here. I’d have Smith and Garver a little higher than their NFBC ADPs in a two-catcher league, with Varsho about even.
Obviously, Kirk is my standout here. I’m rolling the dice on him getting sufficient playing time and hoping it works out better than my Francisco Mejia pick in last year’s column. I’m a big believer in the bat; his .242/.328/.436 line as a rookie wasn’t spectacular, but that’s because he had a ridiculously low .234 BABIP. He struck out just 11.6% of the time in his 189 plate appearances. Kirk hits the ball plenty hard, and Statcast thought he should have batted .288 (and slugged .516) last year. I don’t see him overtaking Danny Jansen in Toronto, but the team has the flexibility to give him plenty of time at DH. It might not happen right away, but it will be difficult to hold him back again.
First basemen
Rhys Hoskins - 86th in Top 500 - 122nd in NFBC - 148th in Yahoo
Josh Bell - 87th in Top 500 - 126th in NFBC - 137th in Yahoo
Matt Olson - 24th in Top 500 - 39th in NFBC - 33rd in Yahoo
Pete Alonso - 39th in Top 500 - 45th in NFBC - 56th in Yahoo
Joey Votto - 131st in Top 500 - 140th in NFBC - 176th in Yahoo
Bobby Dalbec - 154th in Top 500 - 222nd in NFBC - 235th in Yahoo
There’s more value to be had at first base than usual this year, though I recently had to drop my two favorites here a bit in my rankings. That’s because both Hoskins and Bell lost some lineup positioning due to recent additions. I was hoping Hoskins would bat second for the Phillies, but with Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos in town, he’s likely to occupy the fifth or sixth spot initially. Of course, that could always change later. Hoskins had an elite barrel rate last season, and the decline in his walk rate, while perhaps a bad thing for the Phillies, gave him more chances to drive in runs. He had 27 homers and 71 RBI in 107 games last year, which translates to 38 homers and 100 RBI in 150 games.
Bell is now poised to bat immediately behind Nelson Cruz, rather than behind Juan Soto, which is quite a bummer for him. At least it appears that the current plan is to hit them second-through-fourth, rather than third-through-fifth. I’m still quite optimistic about Bell, given the drop in his strikeout rate and the increase in his hard-hit rate last year.
Second basemen
Ryan McMahon - 127th in Top 500 - 160th in NFBC - 167th in Yahoo
Nick Madrigal - 175th in Top 500 - 313th in NFBC - 93% undrafted in Yahoo
Tommy Edman - 100th in Top 500 - 86th in NFBC - 124th in Yahoo
Vidal Brujan - 244th in Top 500 - 366th in NFBC - 98% undrafted in Yahoo
Second base, on the other hand, is my least favorite spot for bargains this year, though I do think Whit Merrifield, Ketel Marte and Jazz Chisholm Jr. rate as decent values earlier in drafts. I had McMahon 152nd on my original top 500 this year, but he’s moved up both because of the long-term extension the Rockies gave him, which should mean a whole lot more rope and less sitting against lefties, and the news that Charlie Blackmon was probably moving back to leadoff, opening up the third spot in the lineup. I’m not sure McMahon is really the best option there, but it’s not like the Rockies have any other quality choices.
That Madrigal has been a zero in steals since reaching the majors has killed his hype, but we’re still talking about a career .317 hitter. The Cubs could bat him at the bottom of their lineup initially, which would probably make him a rather weak play in shallow leagues, but I think he’ll eventually settle in as their regular No. 1 or No. 2 hitter.
Brujan is all about the steal upside. He wasn’t very good in Triple-A last year after a scorching start, but I’m still optimistic about the bat for the long haul. While he’s not going to be much of a factor early on this year, he offers terrific fantasy potential if he can break into the Tampa Bay lineup.
Third basemen
Ke’Bryan Hayes - 68th in Top 500 - 140th in NFBC - 180th in Yahoo
Adalberto Mondesi - 33rd in Top 500 - 59th in NFBC - 69th in Yahoo
Manny Machado - 14th in Top 500 - 22nd in NFBC - 27th in Yahoo
Yoan Moncada - 98th in Top 500 - 151st in NFBC - 133rd in Yahoo
Now we’re talking. If you drafted Hayes based on my advice last year, you came away disappointed. Still, I think that was mostly about the wrist injury he suffered in the second game of the season. In spite of the rough performance that followed, I actually have Hayes a little higher now than I did last year, mostly because he decided to stretch his legs in September (five steals in five tries). Hayes has the speed to continue to deliver there, and the bat should come along, too.
Mondesi... well, you know the deal there. I think he’ll make back his ADPs if he plays in 110 games this year. There haven’t been any red flags this spring, so I’m a big fan of the idea of taking a chance on him in round five.
I originally had Moncada right around his NFBC ADP, but then he said he wanted to steal 30 bases this year. I don’t expect that to happen, but even bumping him up to a dozen steals in my projections was enough to put him in the top 100 overall... steals are just that valuable. Hitting second in a quality lineup helps, too.
Shortstops
Corey Seager - 49th in Top 300 - 79th in NFBC - 67th in Yahoo
Willy Adames - 123rd in Top 300 - 129th in NFBC - 170th in Yahoo
Amed Rosario - 140th in Top 300 - 163rd in NFBC - 239th in Yahoo
Oneil Cruz - 185th in Top 300 - 217th in NFBC - 82% undrafted in Yahoo
The top three here are all holdovers from last year (Mondesi would be, too, but he’s shortstop ineligible at the moment). Everyone is down some on Seager in his new home, but it should be noted that Globe Life Field has played pretty well for lefties to date; it’s certainly a worse home run park than Dodger Stadium, but it should be good for Seager’s average. Also, the lineup around him is looking better than originally expected. He still seems like a really strong pick to me.
Adames is being drafted much higher in Milwaukee this year than he was last year in Tampa Bay (his NFBC ADP at this time last year was 427), but he could go higher yet. He’ll get a ton of plate appearances as a No. 2 hitter, and he is a legit 30-homer threat. Rosario also provided steady value last year and should do so again. Hopefully, he’ll run a little more after going a perfect 13-for-13 stealing bases in 2021.
I’m usually not one to draft hyped rookie hitters, but I do like Bobby Witt Jr. at his current ADP and I’m definitely down for taking a chance on Cruz late in drafts. The Pirates aren’t going to carry him on Opening Day, unfortunately, but he could spend the final two-thirds of the year as their cleanup man.
Outfielders
Byron Buxton - 25th in Top 500 - 55th in NFBC - 65th in Yahoo
Alex Verdugo - 77th in Top 500 - 161st in NFBC - 167th in Yahoo
Nick Senzel - 121st in Top 500 - 457th in NFBC - 97% undrafted in Yahoo
Tyler O’Neill - 30th in Top 500 - 48th in NFBC - 77th in Yahoo
Eddie Rosario - 112th in Top 500 - 170th in NFBC - 221st in Yahoo
Kyle Tucker - 11th in Top 500 - 12th in NFBC - 17th in Yahoo
Yordan Alvarez - 17th in Top 500 - 29th in NFBC - 24th in Yahoo
Aaron Judge - 21st in Top 500 - 37th in NFBC - 29th in Yahoo
Franmil Reyes (DH) - 91st in Top 500 - 126th in NFBC - 108th in Yahoo
Kyle Schwarber - 93rd in Top 500 - 121st in NFBC - 120th in Yahoo
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 105th in Top 500 - 142nd in NFBC - 146th in Yahoo
Marcell Ozuna - 125th in Top 500 - 192nd in NFBC - 187th in Yahoo
Andrew Benintendi - 139th in Top 500 - 191st in NFBC - 212th in Yahoo
Charlie Blackmon - 144th in Top 500 - 234th in NFBC - 203rd in Yahoo
Ian Happ - 145th in Top 500 - 198th in NFBC - 217th in Yahoo
Seiya Suzuki - 157th in Top 500 - 201st in NFBC - 67% undrafted in Yahoo
Anthony Santander - 190th in Top 500 - 269th in NFBC - 251st in Yahoo
Max Kepler - 204th in Top 500 - 282nd in NFBC - 75% undrafted in Yahoo
Manuel Margot - 206th in Top 500 - 386th in NFBC - N/A in Yahoo
Yeah, I’m all in on Buxton again. Of course, this time, I’m only 30-40 spots above his typical ADP, rather than 100 spots like last year. People believe in the ability now, but no one is willing to make the big bet on his health. I think it’s well worth it in shallow leagues.
I had Verdugo even higher prior to the Trevor Story signing in Boston, but now it looks like he’ll initially bat sixth, rather than second. It’ll probably be temporary. The spike in his strikeout rate and drop in his exit velocity that arose in Verdugo’s first year in Boston both went away last year. He could hit .300 and make big contributions in both runs and RBI.
I’m not close to quitting Senzel. He hit quite a bit better than his numbers suggest during the brief time that he was healthy last year, and while I won’t guarantee that he’ll stay off the IL, he is past his knee injury now. He has five-category ability. And, remember, just because I have him 121st here doesn’t mean you can’t wait until the last round to take him.
I get the skepticism regarding O’Neill, given his strikeout rates. I was pretty skeptical last year, too. However, he has elite power and speed. He’s not going to need to match last year’s .286 average in order to remain a major force. Which is good, because he probably won’t (I have him projected at .264).
Starting pitchers
Justin Verlander - 34th in Top 500 - 103rd in NFBC - 129th in Yahoo
John Means - 118th in Top 500 - 222nd in NFBC - 187th in Yahoo
Alex Cobb - 137th in Top 500 - 255th in NFBC - 71% undrafted in Yahoo
Logan Webb - 41st in Top 500 - 67th in NFBC - 99th in Yahoo
Chris Bassitt - 74th in Top 500 - 138th in NFBC - 119th in Yahoo
Clayton Kershaw - 76th in Top 500 - 173rd in NFBC - 109th in Yahoo
Walker Buehler - 9th in Top 500 - 18th in NFBC - 18th in Yahoo
Jacob deGrom - 13th in Top 500 - 24th in NFBC - 21st in Yahoo
Sandy Alcantara - 29th in Top 500 - 43rd in NFBC - 56th in Yahoo
Max Fried - 46th in Top 500 - 73rd in NFBC - 68th in Yahoo
Charlie Morton - 57th in Top 500 - 96th in NFBC - 88th in Yahoo
Yu Darvish - 66th in Top 500 - 99th in NFBC - 94th in Yahoo
Mike Clevinger - 99th in Top 500 - 193rd in NFBC - 158th in Yahoo
Tarik Skubal - 141st in Top 500 - 193rd in NFBC - 188th in Yahoo
Triston McKenzie - 155th in Top 500 - 234th in NFBC - 224th in Yahoo
Jordan Montgomery - 166th in Top 500 - 210th in NFBC - 56% undrafted in Yahoo
Joe Ryan - 193rd in Top 500 - 218th in NFBC - 232nd in Yahoo
Carlos Carrasco - 230th in Top 500 - 296th in NFBC - 56% undrafted in Yahoo
The tables have sort of turned for me here. My rankings typically have the second- and third-tier starters lower than their ADPs, but this year, it seems like those starters are being underdrafted in my opinion. I could also have included guys like Max Scherzer, Shane Bieber, Julio Urias and Lance Lynn as bargains here, but I have them placed pretty typically in my SP rankings... I just have the top 30 or SPs higher overall than the consensus.
This is going to be a tough year for the SP rankings, I think. There are probably going to be more injuries than usual as a result of the lockout and the short spring, and the brief exhibition season has given us very little time to get a read on potential breakthroughs. Jesus Luzardo and Mitch Keller are two guys who have shown up with improved stuff, but since they looked so far away last year, they’re not cracking this list just yet. They are worth keeping an eye on, though.
I don’t think I have any particularly bold calls here just yet. I’m trusting the experience of Verlander and Kershaw as they return from injuries. The Orioles gave Means quite a boost with their Camden Yards edits, and though they still might trade him, that wouldn’t be a bad thing, either. Cobb probably won’t qualify for the ERA title, but I really liked how he looked last year and teaming up with the Giants solidified him as one of my favorites here.
As for the bolder calls, they might come in next week’s notes column as we get better reads on how pitchers are throwing this spring.
Relievers
Blake Treinen - 85th in Top 500 - 173rd in NFBC - 132nd in Yahoo
Taylor Rogers - 110th in Top 500 - 205th in NFBC - 186th in Yahoo
Andrew Kittredge - 128th in Top 500 - 290th in NFBC - 235th in Yahoo
Tyler Wells - 165th in Top 500 - 461st in NFBC - N/A in Yahoo
Emmanuel Clase - 58th in Top 500 - 65th in NFBC - 97th in Yahoo
Kenley Jansen - 79th in Top 500 - 93rd in NFBC - 112th in Yahoo
Scott Barlow - 113th in Top 500 - 177th in NFBC - 163rd in Yahoo
David Bednar - 135th in Top 500 - 206th in NFBC -179th in Yahoo
David Robertson - 170th in Top 500 - 733rd in NFBC - N/A in Yahoo
Anthony Bender - 191st in Top 500 - 440th in NFBC - 81% undrafted in Yahoo
Michael Fulmer - 224th in Top 500 - 376th in NFBC - 229th in Yahoo
Robert Suarez - 225th in Top 500 - 461st in NFBC - N/A in Yahoo
While the elite closers are going higher than usual in drafts this year, there hasn’t been any trickle-down effect. There may be a paucity of sure things for saves right now, but I think there are plenty of intriguing bets available both in the middle and late rounds of drafts. Guys like Treinen, Rogers and Kittredge seemed like risky picks back in December, but since their respective clubs haven’t brought in much at all in the way of competition, they’re great choices at their current ADPs.
Then there are the pitchers with biggest caveats. Wells could be a fine closer for the Orioles, but I’d actually rather the team give him a shot in the rotation, even if that probably wouldn’t lead to any fantasy value. I think Robertson is a better bet than Mychal Givens in Chicago, but the Cubs could lean the other way initially. Bender and Fulmer are fallbacks at the moment; Dylan Floro will likely get the job in Miami, while Gregory Soto will open as Detroit’s closer.
The San Diego pen is wide open, and Dinelson Lamet is probably the one guy with a chance of really running away with the job. Still, Suarez, who saved 42 games in Japan last year, would be the safer choice initially.